Little evidence of correlation between growth in health care spending and reduced mortality

The Impact of Principal Diagnosis on Readmission Risk among Patients Hospitalized for Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Coding variation distorts performance/outcome statistics not eliminated by risk adjustment. Among 1596 community-acquired pneumonia patients hospitalized from 1998 to 2012 identified using an evidence-based algorithm, the authors measured the association of principal diagnosis (PD) with 30-day readmission, stratified by Pneumonia Severity Index risk class. The 152 readmitted patients were more ill (Pneumonia Severity Index class V 38.8% versus 25.8%) and less likely to have a pneumonia PD (52.6% versus 69.9%). Among patients with PDs of pneumonia, respiratory failure, sepsis, and aspiration, mortality/readmission rates were 3.9/8.5%, 28.8/14.0%, 24.7/19.6%, and 9.0/15.0%, respectively. The nonpneumonia PDs were associated with a greater risk of adjusted 30-day readmission: respiratory failure odds ratio (OR) 1.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-3.15), sepsis OR 2.54 (95% CI, 1.52-4.26), and possibly aspiration OR 1.73 (95% CI, 0.88-3.41). With increasing use of alternative PDs among pneumonia patients, quality reporting must account for variations in condition coding practices. Rigorous risk adjustment does not eliminate the need for accurate, consistent case definition in producing valid quality measures.

Study of influential factors of provincial health expenditure -analysis of panel data after the 2009 healthcare reform in China

BACKGROUND

Total Healthcare Expenditure (THE) has increased substantially in all countries. Since the health system reform and health policy environment differ from each country, it is necessary to analyze the motivations of THE in a specific country.

METHODS

The objective of this study was to analyze the influential factors of Provincial THE (PTHE) per capita in China by using spatiotemporal panel data across 31 provinces (including provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, all called provinces in here) from 2009 to 2016 at the provincial and annual level. Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) was used to identify the influential factors of PTHE per capita.

RESULTS

The number of beds per 10,000 population explained most of the variation of PTHE per capita. The results also showed that health expenditure in China reacts more to mortality compared with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. But mortality and Out-Of-Pocket Payments (OOP) as a percentage of THE were associated with PTHE per capita negatively. The rate of infectious diseases and THE as a percentage of GDP had no statistical significance. And the Proportion of the Population Aged 65 and Over (POP65) impact PTHE per capita positively. But the coefficient was small.

CONCLUSIONS

In response to these findings, we conclude that the impact of the increasing percentage of OOP in THE diminishes the PTHE. Furthermore, we find that both the "baseline" health level and health provision are positively correlated with PTHE, which outweighs the effect of GDP.

Association Between Medicare Expenditure Growth and Mortality Rates in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Comparison From 1999 Through 2014

Importance

Many studies have considered the association between Medicare spending and health outcomes at a point in time; few have considered the association between the long-term growth in spending and outcomes.

Objective

To assess whether components of growth in Medicare expenditures are associated with mortality rates between January 1, 1999, and June 30, 2014, for beneficiaries hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cross-sectional analysis of a random 20% sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2000 (n=72 473) and January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2004 (n=38 248), and 100% sample from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2008 (n=159 558) and January 1, 2013, through June 30, 2014 (n=209 614) admitted with acute myocardial infarction to 1220 hospitals.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary exposure measures include the growth of 180-day expenditure components (eg, inpatient, physician, and postacute care) and early percutaneous coronary intervention by hospitals adjusted for price differences and inflation. The primary outcome is the risk-adjusted 180-day case fatality rate.

Results

Patients in each of the years 2004, 2008, and 2013-2014 (relative to those in 1999-2000) were qualitatively of equivalent age, less likely to be white or female, and more likely to be diabetic (all P < .001). Adjusted expenditures per patient increased 13.9% from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2000, and January 1, 2013, through June 30, 2014, but declined 0.5% between 2008 and 2013-2014. Mean (SD) expenditures in the 5.0% of hospitals (n = 61) with the most rapid expenditure growth between 1999-2000 and 2013-2014 increased by 44.1% ($12 828 [$2315]); for the 5.0% of hospitals with the slowest expenditure growth (n = 61), mean expenditures decreased by 18.7% (-$7384 [$4141]; 95% CI, $8177-$6496). The growth in early percutaneous coronary intervention exhibited a negative association with 180-day case fatality. Spending on cardiac procedures was positively associated with 180-day mortality, while postacute care spending exhibited moderate cost-effectiveness ($455 000 per life saved after 180 days; 95% CI, $323 000-$833 000). Beyond spending on noncardiac procedures, growth in other components of spending was not associated with health improvements.

Conclusions and Relevance

Health improvements for patients with acute myocardial infarction varied across hospitals and were associated with the diffusion of cost-effective care, such as early percutaneous coronary intervention and, to a lesser extent, postacute care, rather than overall expenditure growth. Interventions designed to promote hospital adoption of cost-effective care could improve patient outcomes and, if accompanied by cuts in cost-ineffective care (inside and outside of the hospital setting), also reduce expenditures.

Public health and the economy could be served by reallocating medical expenditures to social programs

As much as 30% of US health care spending in the United States does not improve individual or population health. To a large extent this excess spending results from prices that are too high and from administrative waste. In the public sector, and particularly at the state level, where budget constraints are severe and reluctance to raise taxes high, this spending crowds out social, educational, and public-health investments. Over time, as spending on medical care increases, spending on improvements to the social determinants of health are starved. In California the fraction of General Fund expenditures spent on public health and social programs fell from 34.8% in fiscal year 1990 to 21.4% in fiscal year 2014, while health care increased from 14.1% to 21.3%. In spending more on healthcare and less on other efforts to improve health and health determinants, the state is missing important opportunities for health-promoting interventions with a strong financial return. Reallocating ineffective medical expenditures to proven and cost-effective public health and social programs would not be easy, but recognizing its potential for improving the public's health while saving taxpayers billions of dollars might provide political cover to those willing to engage in genuine reform. National estimates of the percent of medical spending that does not improve health suggest that approximately $5 billion of California's public budget for medical spending has no positive effect on health. Up to 10,500 premature deaths could be prevented annually by reallocating this portion of medical spending to public health. Alternatively, the same expenditure could help an additional 418,000 high school students to graduate.

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Medical spending in California rose in 25 years from 14% to 21% of the State budget.

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In this period spending on public health fell by a similar percentage.

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California spends $6 billion annually on healthcare that does not improve health.

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Redirecting this money to tobacco prevention would prevent 12,300 deaths annually.

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Redirecting it to education would help an additional 418,000 students graduate.

Lesion-Specific Factors Contributing to Inhospital Costs in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

The population of adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) in the United States is growing rapidly with concomitant increases in care costs. We sought to define the variables having the greatest influence on annual cost of inpatient care in patients with ACHD in the United States. To do so, we conducted a retrospective analysis of admissions in patients >18 years old with a 3-digit International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, code of 745 to 747 from the State Inpatient Databases of Arkansas (2008 to 2010), California (2003 to 2012), Florida (2005 to 2012), Hawaii (2006 to 2010), Nebraska (2003 to 2011), and New York (2005 to 2012). We selected variables we believed would have the greatest effect on care costs and built a series of multivariable regression models grouping patients by congenital lesion to examine the relative contribution of the specified variables to total annual inpatient cost. We analyzed a total of 68,314 patients aged 57 ± 18.6 years, 51% of whom were women. The multivariable regression model had an overall R(2) of 0.35. Readmission was responsible for 10.3% of annual inpatient cost among all patients with ACHD and had the greatest effect on inpatient care cost for each congenital lesion except Eisenmenger syndrome and conotruncal abnormalities, for both of which it was the second most significant contributor. Other major contributors to annual inpatient care costs included length of stay and operative procedures. In conclusion, rehospitalization is the most significant contributor to annual inpatient cost for individual patients with ACHD in the United States, regardless of underlying anatomy.

Social, Economic, and Political Issues Affecting End-of-Life Care

For many decades, Americans showed a preference for delaying death through a technological imperative that often created challenges for nurses in caring for dying patients and their families. Because of their vast knowledge of health and healing, and their proximity to patients' bedsides, nurses are often well positioned to advocate for healthcare reform and legislation to improve end-of-life care. This article provides an overview of the social, economic, and political factors that are shaping end-of-life care in the United States. First, historical perspectives on end-of-life care are presented to enhance understanding of why some clinicians and patients seem to resist change to current practices. Second, end of care issues related to advanced technology utilization, societal expectations of care, clinical practices, financial incentives, palliative care services, and policy reforms are discussed. Finally, future recommendations are provided to encourage nurses and other healthcare providers to improve care for individuals facing end-of-life care decisions.

Measuring Returns to Hospital Care: Evidence from Ambulance Referral Patterns

Medicare spending exceeds 4% of GDP in the US each year, and there are concerns that moral hazard problems have led to overspending. This paper considers whether hospitals that treat patients more aggressively and receive higher payments from Medicare improve health outcomes for their patients. An innovation is a new lens to compare hospital performance for emergency patients: plausibly exogenous variation in ambulance-company assignment among patients who live near one another. Using Medicare data from 2002-2010, we show that ambulance company assignment importantly affects hospital choice for patients in the same ZIP code. Using data for New York State from 2000-2006 that matches exact patient addresses to hospital discharge records, we show that patients who live very near each other but on either side of ambulance service area boundaries go to different types of hospitals. Both identification strategies show that higher-cost hospitals achieve better patient outcomes for a variety of emergency conditions. Using our Medicare sample, the estimates imply that a one standard deviation increase in Medicare reimbursement leads to a 4 percentage point reduction in mortality (10% compared to the mean). Taking into account one-year spending after the health shock, the implied cost per at least one year of life saved is approximately $80,000. These results are found across different types of hospitals and patients, as well across both identification strategies.

The association of unfavorable outcomes with the intensity of neurosurgical care in the United States

OBJECT

There is wide regional variability in the volume of procedures performed for similar surgical patients throughout the United States. We investigated the association of the intensity of neurosurgical care (defined as the average annual number of neurosurgical procedures per capita) with mortality, length of stay (LOS), and rate of unfavorable discharge for inpatients after neurosurgical procedures.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study involving the 202,518 patients who underwent cranial neurosurgical procedures from 2005-2010 and were registered in the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. Regression techniques were used to investigate the association of the average intensity of neurosurgical care with the average mortality, LOS, and rate of unfavorable discharge.

RESULTS

The inpatient neurosurgical mortality, rate of unfavorable discharge, and average LOS varied significantly among several states. In a multivariate analysis male gender, coverage by Medicaid, and minority racial status were associated with increased mortality, rate of unfavorable discharge, and LOS. The opposite was true for coverage by private insurance, higher income, fewer comorbidities and small hospital size. There was no correlation of the intensity of neurosurgical care with the mortality (Pearson's ρ = -0.18, P = 0.29), rate of unfavorable discharge (Pearson's ρ = 0.08, P = 0.62), and LOS of cranial neurosurgical procedures (Pearson's ρ = -0.21, P = 0.22).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed significant disparities in mortality, LOS, and rate of unfavorable discharge for cranial neurosurgical procedures in the United States. Increased intensity of neurosurgical care was not associated with improved outcomes.

Contributors to variation in hospital spending for critically ill patients with sepsis

BACKGROUND

Costs of severe sepsis in the US exceeded $24 billion in 2007. Identifying the relative contributions of patient, hospital, and physician factors to the variation in hospital costs of sepsis could help target efforts to improve the value of care.

METHODS

We identified adults with a principal or secondary diagnosis of sepsis who received care between June 1, 2004 and June 30, 2006 at one of the hospitals participating in a multi-institutional database. We constructed a regression model to predict mean hospital costs that included patient characteristics, hospital mission and environment (e.g., teaching status, percentage of low-income patients), hospital fixed costs, and risk-adjusted length of stay, which encompasses hospital throughput, the incidence of complications, and other aspects of physician practice. To determine the contribution to cost variance by each predictor, we calculated the R(2).

RESULTS

At 189 hospitals, we identified 40,265 adults with sepsis who met inclusion criteria. The median cost of a hospitalization was $20,216. The model explained 69% of the hospital-level variation in the costs of hospitalization. Of explained variation, differences in patients' ages, comorbidities, and severity accounted for 20%; hospital mission and environment represented 16%; differences in hospital fixed costs, including acquisition costs and overhead, accounted for 19%; and wage index explained an additional 12%. Risk-adjusted length of stay comprised the final one-third of explained variation.

CONCLUSION

A large proportion of variation in the cost of caring for critically ill patients with sepsis across hospitals is related to differences in patient characteristics and immutable hospital characteristics, while nearly one-third is the result of differences in risk-adjusted length of stay.

IMPLICATIONS

Efforts to reduce spending on the critically ill should aim to understand determinants of practice style but should also focus on hospital throughput, overhead, acquisition, and labor costs.

Epidemiology and outcomes of acute respiratory failure in the United States, 2001 to 2009: a national survey

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to evaluate trends in hospitalization, cost, and short-term outcomes in acute respiratory failure (ARF) between 2001 and 2009 in the United States.

METHODS

Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample we identified cases of ARF based on International Classification for Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. We calculated weighted frequencies of ARF hospitalizations by year and estimated population-adjusted incidence and mortality rates. We used logistic regression to examine hospital mortality rates over time while adjusting for changes in demographic characteristics and comorbidities of patients.

RESULTS

The number of hospitalizations with a diagnosis of ARF rose from 1,007,549 in 2001 to 1,917,910 in 2009, with an associated increase in total hospital costs from $30.1 billion to $54.3 billion. During the same period we observed a decrease in hospital mortality from 27.6% in 2001 to 20.6% in 2009, a slight decline in average length of stay from 7.8 days to 7.1 days, and no significant change in the mean cost per case ($15,900). Rates of mechanical ventilation (noninvasive [NIV] or invasive mechanical ventilation [IMV]) remained stable over the 9-year period, and the use of NIV increased from 4% in 2001 to 10% in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the period of 2001 to 2009, there was a steady increase in the number of hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of ARF, with a decrease in inpatient mortality. There was a significant shift during this time toward the use of NIV, with a decrease in the rates of IMVuse.

Saving Money or Just Saving Lives? Improving the Productivity of US Health Care Spending

There is growing concern over the rising share of the US economy devoted to health care spending. Fueled in part by demographic transitions, unchecked increases in entitlement spending will necessitate some combination of substantial tax increases, elimination of other public spending, or unsustainable public debt. This massive increase in health spending might be warranted if each dollar devoted to the health care sector yielded real health benefits, but this does not seem to be the case. Although we have seen remarkable gains in life expectancy and functioning over the past several decades, there is substantial variation in the health benefits associated with different types of spending. Some treatments, such as aspirin, beta blockers, and flu shots, produce a large health benefit per dollar spent. Other more expensive treatments, such as stents for cardiovascular disease, are high value for some patients but poor value for others. Finally, a large and expanding set of treatments, such as proton-beam therapy or robotic surgery, contributes to rapid increases in spending despite questionable health benefits. Moving resources toward more productive uses requires encouraging providers to deliver and patients to consume high-value care, a daunting task in the current political landscape. But widespread inefficiency also offers hope: Given the current distribution of resources in the US health care system, there is tremendous potential to improve the productivity of health care spending and the fiscal health of the United States.

Association of hospital spending intensity with mortality and readmission rates in Ontario hospitals

CONTEXT

The extent to which better spending produces higher-quality care and better patient outcomes in a universal health care system with selective access to medical technology is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether acute care patients admitted to higher-spending hospitals have lower mortality and readmissions.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

The study population comprised adults (>18 years) in Ontario, Canada, with a first admission for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (n = 179,139), congestive heart failure (CHF) (n = 92,377), hip fracture (n = 90,046), or colon cancer (n = 26,195) during 1998-2008, with follow-up to 1 year. The exposure measure was the index hospital's end-of-life expenditure index for hospital, physician, and emergency department services.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes were 30-day and 1-year mortality and readmissions and major cardiac events (readmissions for AMI, angina, CHF, or death) for AMI and CHF.

RESULTS

Patients' baseline health status was similar across hospital expenditure groups. Patients admitted to hospitals in the highest- vs lowest-spending intensity terciles had lower rates of all adverse outcomes. In the highest- vs lowest-spending hospitals, respectively, the age- and sex-adjusted 30-day mortality rate was 12.7% vs 12.8% for AMI, 10.2% vs 12.4% for CHF, 7.7% vs 9.7% for hip fracture, and 3.3% vs 3.9% for CHF; fully adjusted relative 30-day mortality rates were 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89-0.98) for AMI, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.86) for CHF, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.80) for hip fracture, and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.66-0.91) for colon cancer. Results for 1-year mortality, readmissions, and major cardiac events were similar. Higher-spending hospitals had higher nursing staff ratios, and their patients received more inpatient medical specialist visits, interventional (AMI cohort) and medical (AMI and CHF cohorts) cardiac therapies, preoperative specialty care (colon cancer cohort), and postdischarge collaborative care with a cardiologist and primary care physician (AMI and CHF cohorts).

CONCLUSION

Among Ontario hospitals, higher spending intensity was associated with lower mortality, readmissions, and cardiac event rates.

Medical spending and the health of the elderly

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the relationship between variations in medical spending and health outcomes of the elderly.

DATA SOURCES

1992-2002 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys.

STUDY DESIGN

We used instrumental variable (IV) estimation to identify the relationships between alternative measures of elderly Medicare beneficiaries' medical spending over a 3-year observation period and health status, measured by the Health and Activity Limitation Index (HALex) and survival status at the end of the 3 years. We used the Dartmouth Atlas End-of-Life Expenditure Index defined for hospital referral regions in 1996 as the exogenous identifying variable to construct the IVs for medical spending.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

The analysis sample includes 17,438 elderly (age >64) beneficiaries who entered the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey in the fall of each year from 1991 to 1999, were not institutionalized at baseline, stayed in fee-for-service Medicare for the entire observation period, and survived for at least 2 years. Measures of baseline health were constructed from information obtained in the fall of the year the person entered the survey, and changes in health were from subsequent interviews over the entire observation period. Medicare and total medical spending were constructed from Medicare claims and self-reports of other spending over the entire observation period.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

IV estimation results in a positive and statistically significant relationship between medical spending and better health: 10 percent greater medical spending over the prior 3 years (mean=U.S.$2,709) is associated with a 1.9 percent larger HALex value (p=.045; range 1.2-2.2 percent depending on medical spending measure) and a 1.5 percent greater survival probability (p=.039; range 1.2-1.7 percent).

CONCLUSIONS

On average, greater medical spending is associated with better health status of Medicare beneficiaries, implying that across-the-board reductions in Medicare spending may result in poorer health for some beneficiaries.