Association of preoperative parameters with postoperative mortality and long-term survival after liver transplantation

Risk Factors of Mortality After Liver Transplantation in Uruguay

INTRODUCTION

Identification of predictive factors of mortality in a liver transplant (LT) program optimizes patient selection and allocation of organs.

OBJECTIVE

To determine survival rates and predictive factors of mortality after LT in the National Liver Transplant Program of Uruguay.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted analyzing data prospectively collected into a multidisciplinary database. All patients transplanted since the beginning of the program on July 2009 to April 2017 were included (n = 148). Twenty-nine factors were analyzed through the univariate Kaplan-Meier model. A Cox regression model was used in the multivariate analysis to identify the independent prognostic factors for survival.

RESULTS

Overall survival was 92%, 87%, and 78% at discharge, 1 year, and 3 years, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were significantly lower in: recipients aged >60 years, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score >21, LT due to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and acute liver failure (ALF), donors with comorbidities, intraoperative blood loss beyond the median (>2350 mL), red blood cell transfusion requirement beyond the median (>1254 mL), intraoperative complications, delay of extubation, invasive bacterial, and fungal infection after LT and stay in critical care unit >4 days. The Cox regression model (likelihood ratio test, P = 1.976 e^-06) identified the following independent prognostic factors for survival: LT for HCC (hazard ratio [HR] 4.511; P = .001) and ALF (HR 6.346; P = .004), donors with comorbidities (HR 2.354; P = .041), intraoperative complications (HR 2.707; P = .027), and invasive fungal infections (HR 3.281; P = .025).

CONCLUSION

The survival rates of LT patients as well as the mortality-associated factors are similar to those reported in the international literature.

Impact of graft preservation solutions for liver transplantation on early cytokine release and postoperative organ dysfunctions. A pilot study

INTRODUCTION

During liver transplantation, graft ischemia-reperfusion injury leads to a systemic inflammatory response producing postoperative organ dysfunctions. The aim of this observational and prospective study was to compare the impact of Solution de conservation des organes et tissus (SCOT) 15 and University of Wisconsin (UW) preservation solutions on early cytokine release, postreperfusion syndrome and postoperative organ dysfunctions.

METHODS

Thirty-seven liver transplantations were included: 21 in UW Group and 16 in SCOT 15 group. Five cytokines were measured in systemic blood after anesthetic induction, 30minutes after unclamping portal vein and on postoperative day 1.

RESULTS

Following unclamping portal vein, cytokines were released in systemic circulation. Systemic cytokine concentrations were higher in UW than in SCOT 15 group: Interleukin-10, Interleukine-6. In SCOT 15 group, significant reduction of postreperfusion syndrome incidence and acute kidney injury were observed. Alanine and aspartate aminotransferase peak concentrations were higher in SCOT 15 group than in UW group. However, from postoperative day 1 to day 10, aminotransferase returned to normal values and did not differ between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to UW, SCOT 15 decreases systemic cytokine release resulting from graft ischemia-reperfusion injury and reduces incidence of postreperfusion syndrome and postoperative renal failure.

Age limitation for organ transplantation: the Israeli example

In 2013 the Israeli Ministry of Health appointed a public committee to examine the policy of placing an age limitation on candidates listed for organ transplantation. The committee rejected the use of an age limit criterion for listing candidates for transplantation and recommended to abolish it. However, opinions differed regarding the use of recipients’ age in shaping a fair organ allocation policy. The committee's recommendations were adopted and put into force as of April 2014. This article unfolds the committee deliberations on accommodating values of formal equality for optimising the use of organ transplantation.

Application of the BAR score as a predictor of short- and long-term survival in liver transplantation patients

BACKGROUND

The balance of risk (BAR) is a prediction system after liver transplantation.

METHODS

To assess the BAR system, a retrospective observational study was performed in 402 patients who had transplant surgery between 1997 and 2012. The BAR score was computed for each patient. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, and model calibration. The cutoff value with the best Youden index was selected. Statistical analysis employed the Kaplan-Meier method (log-rank test) for survival, the Mann-Whitney test for group comparison, and multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

3-month survival was 46% for BAR ≥ 11 and 77% for BAR <11 (p = 0.001); 12-month survival was 44% for BAR ≥ 11 and 69% for BAR <11 (p = 0.001). Factors of survival <3 months were BAR ≥ 11 [odds ratio (OR) 3.08; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75-5.42; p = 0.001] and intrasurgical use of packed red blood cells (RBC) above 6 units (OR 4.49; 95% CI 2.73-7.39; p = 0.001). For survival <12 months, factors were BAR ≥ 11 (OR 2.94; 95% CI 1.67-5.16; p = 0.001) and RBC >6 units (OR 2.99; 95% CI 1.92-4.64; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study contributes to the incorporation of the BAR system into Brazilian transplantation centers.

Factors associated with early mortality after living-donor liver transplant

OBJECTIVES

We sought to identify the risk factors associated with the early mortality after a living-donor liver transplant.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two hundred eighteen patients were recruited in this study. Potential risk factors were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. A C statistic equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to assess the ability of the model to predict mortality risk during the first 3 months after a living-donor liver transplant.

RESULTS

Twenty-six recipients died within the first 3 months after a living-donor liver transplant. On a multivariate analysis, intraoperative allogeneic red blood cell transfusion and the preoperative creatinine levels were independently associated with early postoperative mortality. A prognostic model was proposed in this study (early mortality risk score = 0.107 × intraoperative allogeneic red blood cells transfusion [U] + 0.005 × preoperative creatinine concentration [μmol/L]). Three-month survival rates of patients with high and low scores were 69.8% and 95.5% (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Transfusion of intraoperative allogeneic red blood cell and preoperative creatinine levels are associated with the early mortality after living-donor liver transplant. A model to predict early mortality after a living-donor liver transplant based on these risk factors was proposed in this study.

Analysis of the survival of cirrhotic patients enlisted for liver transplantation in the pre- and post-MELD era in southern Brazil

CONTEXT

Transplantation is the only cure for decompensated cirrhosis. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used in liver allocation.

OBJECTIVES

Comparing survival of enlisted populations in pre- and post-MELD eras and estimating their long-term survival.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of cirrhotics enlisted for transplantation during pre- and post-MELD eras. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier's model. Cox's model was used to determine risk factors for mortality. Exponential, Weibull's, normal-log and Gompertz's models were used to estimate long-term survival.

RESULTS

The study included 162 patients enlisted in pre-MELD era and 184 in post-MELD period. Kaplan-Meier's survival curve of patients enlisted in post-MELD era was better than that of pre-MELD period (P = 0.009). This difference remained for long-term estimates, with a survival of 53.54% in 5 years and 44.64% in 10 years for patients enlisted in post-MELD era and of 43.17% and 41.75% for pre-MELD period. Era in which patients had been enlisted (P = 0.010) and MELD score at enlistment (P<0.001) were independently associated to survival with hazard ratios of 0.664 (95% CI-confidence interval = 0.487-0.906) and 1.069 (95% CI = 1.043-1.095).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-based transplantation policy is superior to chronology-based one, promoting better survival for enlisted patients, even in long-term.

Postoperative delirium in the intensive care unit predicts worse outcomes in liver transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Delirium is common in intensive care unit patients and is associated with worse outcome.

OBJECTIVE

To identify early risk factors for delirium in patients admitted to the intensive care unit following orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT).

METHODS

An observational study of patients admitted to the intensive care unit from January 2000 to May 2010 for elective or semi-elective OLT was conducted. The primary end point was delirium in the intensive care unit. Pre- and post-transplantation and intraoperative factors potentially associated with this outcome were examined.

RESULTS

Of the 281 patients included in the study, 28 (10.03%) developed delirium in the intensive care unit at a median of two days (interquartile range one to seven days) after OLT. According to multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for delirium were intraoperative transfusion of packed red blood cells (OR 1.15 [95% CI 1.01 to 1.18]), renal replacement therapy during the pretransplantation period (OR 13.12 [95% CI 2.82 to 72.12]) and Acute Physiologic and Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (OR per unit increase 1.10 [95% CI 1.03 to 1.29]). Using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for baseline covariates, delirium was associated with an almost twofold risk of remaining in hospital, a fourfold increased risk of dying in hospital and an almost threefold increased rate of death by one year.

CONCLUSION

Intraoperative transfusion of packed red blood cells, pretransplantation renal replacement therapy and APACHE II score are predictors for the development of delirium in intensive care unit patients post-OLT and are associated with increased hospital lengths of stay and mortality.