Are Trends in Economic Modeling of Pediatric Diabetes Mellitus up to Date with the Clinical Practice Guidelines and the Latest Scientific Findings?

Background: Modeling techniques in the field of pediatrics present unique challenges beyond traditional model limitations, and sometimes difficulties in faithfully simulating the condition's evolution over time. Objective: This study aimed to identify whether economic modeling approaches in diabetes in pediatric patients align with the recommendations of clinical practice guidelines and the latest scientific evidence. Methods: A literature review was performed in March 2023 to identify modeling-based economic evaluations in diabetes in pediatric patients. Data were extracted and synthesized from eligible studies. Clinical practice guidelines for diabetes were gathered to compare their alignment with modeling strategies. Two endocrinology specialists provided insights on the latest findings in diabetes that are not yet included in the guidelines. A multidisciplinary group of experts agreed on the relevant themes to conduct the comparative analysis: parameter informing on glycemic control, diabetic ketoacidosis/hypoglycemia, C-peptide as prognostic biomarker, metabolic memory, age at diagnosis, socioeconomic status, pediatric-specific sources of risk equations, and pediatric-specific sources of utilities/disutilities. Results: Nineteen modeling-based studies (7 de novo, 12 predesigned models) and 34 guidelines were selected. Hemoglobin A1c was the main parameter to model the glycemic control; however, guidelines recommend the usage of complementary measures (eg, time in range) which are not included in economic models. Eight models included diabetic ketoacidosis (42.1%), 16 included hypoglycemia (84.2%), 2 included C-peptide (1 of those as prognostic factor) (10.5%) and 1 included legacy effect (5.3%). Neither guidelines nor models included recent findings, such as age at diagnosis or socioeconomic status, as prognostic factors. The lack of pediatric-specific sources for risk equations and utility/disutility values were additional limitations. Discussion: Economic models designed for assessing interventions in diabetes in pediatric patients should be based on pediatric-specific data and include novel adjuvant glucose-monitoring metrics and latest evidence on prognostic factors (C-peptide, legacy effect, age at diagnosis, socioeconomic status) to provide a more faithful reflection of the disease. Conclusions: Economic models represent useful tools to inform decision making. However, further research assessing the gaps is needed to enhance evidence-based health economic modeling that best represents reality.

Developing Theoretical Models for Atherosclerotic Lesions: A Methodological Approach Using Interdisciplinary Insights

Atherosclerosis, a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, necessitates advanced and innovative modeling techniques to better understand and predict plaque dynamics. The present work presents two distinct hypothetical models inspired by different research fields: the logistic map from chaos theory and Markov models from stochastic processes. The logistic map effectively models the nonlinear progression and sudden changes in plaque stability, reflecting the chaotic nature of atherosclerotic events. In contrast, Markov models, including traditional Markov chains, spatial Markov models, and Markov random fields, provide a probabilistic framework to assess plaque stability and transitions. Spatial Markov models, visualized through heatmaps, highlight the spatial distribution of transition probabilities, emphasizing local interactions and dependencies. Markov random fields incorporate complex spatial interactions, inspired by advances in physics and computational biology, but present challenges in parameter estimation and computational complexity. While these hypothetical models offer promising insights, they require rigorous validation with real-world data to confirm their accuracy and applicability. This study underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in developing theoretical models for atherosclerotic plaques.

A health economic analysis of an integrated diabetes care program in China: based on real-world evidence

Introduction

An integrated care program was set up in China to improve the collaboration between primary healthcare centers and hospitals on diabetes management. This study aims to evaluate the economic value of this program with real-world data and to examine whether it can be promoted in primary healthcare settings in China.

Methods

This integrated diabetes care program was implemented in Yuhuan City, China, to coordinate primary care and specialty care, treatment and prevention services, as well as the responsibilities of doctors and nurses. Cost-effectiveness analysis was used to compare the short-term economic value of this program (intervention group) versus usual diabetes management (control group). The cost data were collected from a societal perspective, while the effectiveness indicators pointed to the improvement of control rates of fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels after the 1 year intervention. In addition, cost-utility analysis was applied to evaluate the long-term value of the two groups. Patients' long-term diabetes management costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were simulated by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2.

Results

The results showed that for 1% FBG, SPB, and DBP control rate improvement, the costs for the intervention group were 290.53, 124.39, and 249.15 Chinese Yuan (CNY), respectively, while the corresponding costs for the control group were 655.19, 610.43, and 1460.25 CNY. Thus, the intervention group's cost-effectiveness ratios were lower than those of the control group. In addition, compared to the control group, the intervention group's incremental costs per QALY improvement were 102.67 thousand CNY, which means that the intervention was cost-effective according to the World Health Organization's standards.

Discussion

In conclusion, this study suggested that this integrated diabetes care program created short-term and long-term economic values through patient self-management support, primary care strengthening, and care coordination. As this program followed the principles of integrated care reform, it can be promoted in China. Also, its elements can provide valuable experience for other researchers to build customized integrated care models.

Cost-effectiveness of intensive interventions compared to standard care in individuals with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and critical appraisal of decision-analytic models

AIMS

The objective of this systematic review is to identify and assess the quality of published decision-analytic models evaluating the long-term cost-effectiveness of target-driven intensive interventions for single and multifactorial risk factor control compared to standard care in people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We searched the electronic databases MEDLINE, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library from inception to October 31, 2019. Articles were eligible for inclusion if the studies had used a decision-analytic model evaluating both the long-term costs and benefits associated with intensive interventions for risk factor control compared to standard care in people with type 2 diabetes. Data were extracted using a standardised form, while quality was assessed using the decision-analytic model-specific Philips-criteria.

RESULTS

Overall, nine articles (11 models) were identified, four models evaluated intensive glycaemic control, three evaluated intensive blood pressure control, two evaluated intensive lipid control, and two evaluated intensive multifactorial interventions. Six reported using discrete-time simulations modelling approach, whereas five reported using a Markov modelling framework. The majority, seven studies, reported that the intensive interventions were dominant or cost-effective, given the assumptions and analytical perspective taken. The methodological and reporting quality of the studies was generally weak, with only four studies fulfilling more than 50% of their applicable Philips-criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first systematic review of decision-analytic models of target-driven intensive interventions for single and multifactorial risk factor control in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Identified shortcomings are lack of transparency in data identification and evidence synthesis as well as for the selection of the modelling approaches. Future models should aim to include greater evaluation of the quality of the data sources used and the assessment of uncertainty in the model.

Prediction of transfer among multiple states of blood pressure based on Markov model: an 18-year cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify the rules of transition between normotension, prehypertension and hypertension states and to establish a prediction model for the incidence of prehypertension and hypertension.

METHODS

Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey from 1991 to 2009 were used as training data to develop the model. Data of the year 2011 were used for model validation. The multistate Markov model was developed using the msm package in R software.

RESULTS

A total of 5265 participants were included at baseline, with an average follow-up of 8.05 ± 5.27 years and 17 640 observations. The ratio of men to women was 1 : 1.17, and the mean age was 37.54 ± 13.80 years. Within 10 years, in men, from normotension, the average probability to prehypertension and hypertension are 34.5 and 35.25%, respectively; from prehypertension, the average probability of recovering to normotension and developing to hypertension are 17.78 and 43.85%, respectively. In women, the average probabilities are 27.49, 28.09, 29.11 and 39.05%. Fat consumption increasing was found to be a protective factor, with 4.5% lower rate of transferring from normotension to prehypertension for a quarter percentage increasing. The model showed a very good prediction ability within 10 years and provided good prediction of blood pressure in the 2011 cohort (χ = 0.781, P = 0.676).

CONCLUSION

The multistate Markov model can be a useful tool to identify the rules of transition among multiple states of blood pressure and predict well prevalence of the normotension, prehypertension and hypertension in cohort populations.

External validation of type 2 diabetes computer simulation models: definitions, approaches, implications and room for improvement-a protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), a highly prevalent chronic disease, puts a large burden on individual health and health care systems. Computer simulation models, used to evaluate the clinical and economic effectiveness of various interventions to handle T2DM, have become a well-established tool in diabetes research. Despite the broad consensus about the general importance of validation, especially external validation, as a crucial instrument of assessing and controlling for the quality of these models, there are no systematic reviews comparing such validation of diabetes models. As a result, the main objectives of this systematic review are to identify and appraise the different approaches used for the external validation of existing models covering the development and progression of T2DM.

METHODS

We will perform adapted searches by applying respective search strategies to identify suitable studies from 14 electronic databases. Retrieved study records will be included or excluded based on predefined eligibility criteria as defined in this protocol. Among others, a publication filter will exclude studies published before 1995. We will run abstract and full text screenings and then extract data from all selected studies by filling in a predefined data extraction spreadsheet. We will undertake a descriptive, narrative synthesis of findings to address the study objectives. We will pay special attention to aspects of quality of these models in regard to the external validation based upon ISPOR and ADA recommendations as well as Mount Hood Challenge reports. All critical stages within the screening, data extraction and synthesis processes will be conducted by at least two authors. This protocol adheres to PRISMA and PRISMA-P standards.

DISCUSSION

The proposed systematic review will provide a broad overview of the current practice in the external validation of models with respect to T2DM incidence and progression in humans built on simulation techniques.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017069983 .