Temporal pattern of tuberculosis cure, mortality, and treatment abandonment in Brazilian capitals

Spatial patterns and factors associated with the incidence of tuberculosis-diabetes in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to analyse the spatial patterns and factors associated with the incidence of tuberculosis-diabetes (TB-DM) in Brazil, from 2001 to 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

Ecological study.

METHODS

Brazilian municipalities were used as the units of analysis. The local empirical Bayesian rate and the spatial autocorrelation test were calculated. Moran and Getis-Ord Gi∗ were used to identify spatial clusters, and spatially weighted regression was conducted.

RESULTS

In total, 75,021 new cases of TB associated with DM were reported in Brazil during the study period. Most Brazilian municipalities had an average TB-DM incidence of 1.0-2.0/100,000 inhabitants. The regression showed that the Gini index (β = 0.85) and family health strategy coverage (β = -0.26) were the two indicators that had the most influence on TB-DM incidence in Brazil.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified spatial clusters of TB-DM in Brazil. The results also indicated that social inequalities played a key role in the incidence of TB.

A critical analysis of the decreasing trends in tuberculosis cure indicators in Brazil, 2001-2022

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis cure indicators in Brazil.

METHODS

An ecological time-series study using administrative data of reported cases of the disease nationwide between 2001 and 2022. We estimated cure indicators for each federative unit (FU) considering individuals with pulmonary tuberculosis, tuberculosis-HIV coinfection, and those in tuberculosis retreatment. We used regression models using joinpoint regression for trend analysis, reporting the annual percentage change and the average annual percentage change.

RESULTS

For the three groups analyzed, we observed heterogeneity in the annual percentage change in the Brazilian FUs, with a predominance of significantly decreasing trends in the cure indicator in most FUs, especially at the end of the time series. When considering national indicators, an average annual percentage change of -0.97% (95% CI: -1.23 to -0.74) was identified for the cure of people with pulmonary tuberculosis, of -1.11% (95% CI: -1.42 to -0.85) for the cure of people with tuberculosis-HIV coinfection, and of -1.44% (95% CI: -1.62 to -1.31) for the cure of people in tuberculosis retreatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing trends of cure indicators in Brazil are concerning and underscore a warning to public authorities, as it points to the possible occurrence of other treatment outcomes, such as treatment discontinuity and death. This finding contradicts current public health care policies and requires urgent strategies aiming to promote follow-up of patients during tuberculosis treatment in Brazil.

Temporal-spatial analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the State of Ceará, Brazil, between 2009-2019

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatial distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the municipalities of the state of Ceará, Brazil, between 2009-2019.

METHODS

This is an ecological study with a spatial focus on the state of Ceará, considering the period from 2009 to 2019. Death data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were used to calculate crude and standardized mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases. Temporal analysis was carried out using the Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.0 software and spatial analysis of the municipalities' average mortality. The values were smoothed by the local empirical Bayesian method using QGIS 3.16. For spatial clusters, the Global and Local Moran Index was used through Moran Map and LISA Map, with analyses carried out in TerraView 4.2.2.

RESULTS

A total of 132,145 deaths from cardiovascular diseases were recorded in the period, with an average increase of 3% per year. Higher mortality rates were observed in men, people aged ≥80 years, mixed-race ethnicity/skin color, married, and with lower level of education. There was the formation of clusters of municipalities with high mortality rates in the regions of Vale do Jaguaribe, Sertão Central, Centro Sul, Sertão dos Inhamuns and Serra da Ibiapaba.

CONCLUSION

This study identified municipalities with high mortality and exposed the need for strategies aligned with the reality and particularities of these locations.

[Mortality from neglected tropical ciseases in Brazil in the 21st Century: Analysis of spatial and temporal trends and associated factorsMortalidad por enfermedades tropicales desatendidas en Brasil en el siglo XXI: análisis de tendencias espaciales y temporales y factores asociados]

Objective

To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution and factors associated with mortality from neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in Brazil from 2000 to 2019.

Method

We performed an ecological study to analyze NTD-related deaths recorded in the Ministry of Health Mortality Information System (SIM). For the temporal analysis, the joinpoint method was used. Spatial dependence was analyzed using global Moran and local Getis-Ord Gi* indices. Four non-spatial and spatial regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality.

Results

The mean mortality rate from NTDs in Brazil during the study period was 3.32 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants, with the highest rate (8.68 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants) recorded in the Midwest. The most prevalent causes of death were Chagas disease (n = 94 781; 74.9%) and schistosomiasis (n = 10 271; 8.1%). There was a 1.24% reduction (95%CI = -1.6; -0.9; P < 0.001) in NTD-related mortality in Brazil per year. A high/high spatial distribution pattern and hotspots were observed in municipalities in the states of Goiás, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Tocantins, and Piauí. The indicators "population in households with density > 2 people per bedroom" (β = -0.07; P = 0.00) and "municipal human development index" (β = -3.36; P = 0.08) were negatively associated with the outcome, while the "index of social vulnerability" (β = 2.74; P = 0.05) was positively associated with the outcome.

Conclusion

Lower human development and higher social vulnerability are associated with higher mortality from NTDs, which should guide NTD prevention and control efforts.

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city.

METHODS

This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.

RESULTS

A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002-2018, with a trend of stability.

CONCLUSIONS

The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Spatiotemporal trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in the Northeast of Brazil, 2007–2017

Chagas disease (CD) is a neglected disease and endemic in Brazil. In the Brazilian Northeast Region, it affects millions of people. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the spatiotemporal trends of CD mortality in the Northeast of Brazil. This ecological study was designed, in which the unit of analysis was the municipality of the Brazilian northeast. The data source was the Information System of Mortality. It was calculated relative risk from socioeconomic characteristics. Mortality rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayes method. Spatial dependency was analysed by the Global and Local Moran Index. Scan spatial statistics were also used. A total of 11 287 deaths by CD were notified in the study. An expressive parcel of this number was observed among 70-year-olds or more (n = 4381; 38.8%), no schooling (n = 4381; 38.8%), mixed-race (n = 4381; 62.3%), male (n = 6875; 60.9%). It was observed positive spatial autocorrelation, mostly in municipalities of the state of Bahia, Piauí (with high-high clusters), and Maranhão (with low-low clusters). The spatial scan statistics has presented a risk of mortality in 24 purely spatial clusters (P < 0.05). The study has identified the spatial pattern of CD mortality mostly in Bahia and Piauí, highlighting priority areas in planning and control strategies of the health services.