Urban expansion in the Atlantic Forest: applying the Nature Futures Framework to develop a conceptual model and future scenarios

Effects of climate change on the distribution of Molossus molossus and the potential risk of Orthohantavirus transmission in the Neotropical region

Molossus molossus is a widely distributed neotropical bat species in the Americas, often found in urban areas. This study evaluated climate change effects on the potential geographic distribution of M. molossus, a natural host of zoonotic pathogens such as Orthohantavirus, in the Neotropical region. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM), models were generated for current (1970-2000) and future (2070) climate scenarios based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two Global Circulation Models (MPI-ESM1-2-LR and IPSL-CM6A-LR). Results indicated that in the current scenario, warm and coastal areas of the Neotropics are suitable for M. molossus occurrence. Risk areas for Orthohantavirus transmission were mapped by overlapping the probability of urban expansion with projections of climatic suitability for the bat. For both future scenarios (2070), projections indicate an expansion of suitable climatic areas for M. molossus over urban expansion zones, specifically in Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, Mexico, the United States, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico. However, projections also indicate the Lesser Antilles under climate threat, considering that no climatic suitability areas will remain. These findings provide important information for planning surveillance and mitigation actions for zoonotic risks associated with M. molossus, considering climate change impacts on its geographic distribution in the Neotropical region.

Hitting the Road: Haplotype Diversity of Fire Ants Nesting on Disturbed Atlantic Forest Habitats

Ants of the genus Solenopsis are globally distributed, presenting high diversity and many generalist species. In South America, the dominant species is Solenopsis saevissima (Smith, 1855), commonly found nesting in grassy fields surrounding humanized areas. In spite of being so common, there has been no research evaluating the effect of human disturbances on the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype diversity in this species. In this context, we here characterized the mtDNA haplotype diversity in S. saevissima nests by highway roadsides, dust roads, and forest borders of Atlantic Forest, based on partial sequences of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI). Based on the facts that the species is a rapid colonizer of disturbed habitats, we specifically probed how the genetic diversity of native S. saevissima is impacted by highways and roads infrastructure expanding around the rainforest. Species diagnosis was established both by morphological characters and obtained mtDNA COI sequences. Overall, the species exhibited high haplotypes and nucleotide diversity, particularly around forest borders; though all haplotypes seemed closely related across the different habitats. We identified seven mitochondrial haplotypes (H1 to H7), where haplotype H1 was exclusively found in highway roadside nests, and H7 on dust roads; the remaining haplotypes were recorded from all habitats. Haplotype H1 was geographically isolated to the south of the Atlantic Forest, supporting previous suggestions that it acts as a biogeographical barrier. The pattern is suggestive of a recent species expansion, probably resulting from extensive habitat fragmentation. Taken together, our data demonstrates fire ant haplotypes prevailing in some anthropized habitats, characterizing how a native species lining the remnants of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest might be a concern for environmental conservation.

Spatial distribution and faunal composition of millipedes of the family Spirostreptidae Brandt, 1833 in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Diplopoda, Juliformia, Spirostreptida)

The Atlantic Forest is known for its richness and diversity of species. Nonetheless, the diversity of millipedes in the biome is still poorly known. In this work, the distribution and the faunal composition of millipedes of the family Spirostreptidae Brandt, 1833 (order Spirostreptida) from the Atlantic Forest are provided. A total of 159 occurrence points were compiled, and 59 species in 17 genera were listed. Gymnostreptus Brölemann, 1902 was recovered as the richest genus in the Atlantic Forest with 14 species and one subspecies. The species Plusioporus setiger (Brölemann, 1902) presented the highest number of records, with 22 occurrence points in at least 20 municipalities. A total of 35 species were recorded from only one municipality. Considering all the threats on the biome, this paper is important for our understanding of the Brazilian millipede fauna and can be useful to determine places that require valuations for collecting efforts and conservation policies.

Developing an Approach for Assessing Urban Blue-Green Spaces Towards Sustainable Urban Growth Through Retrospective Cyber Metrics Analysis of Operational Estimations Approaches

Urban blue-green spaces provide us abundant social, environmental, and economic benefits, but the disparities often exist in their distribution and accessibility. Traditionally urban blue-green spaces are a consolidation of “blue-green infrastructure” within urban areas. Several urban features like parks, forests, gardens, visible water, such as parks, rivers, canals, reservoirs, ponds, lakes, fountains, etc. are categorized or considered under the blue-green spaces and these are very much crucial for various urban ecosystem services. These play a significant role for all stakeholders of the urban community. Thus, everyone must ensure the equitable number of blue-green spaces for all. Recently, several rules and regulations towards the safeguarding of urban blue-green spaces have been outlined. The work presents a methodological framework to develop an approach towards sustainable urban growth with the help of urban blue-green spaces assessments. The current work has attempted to examine the linkage between issues of the urban blue-green spaces for restoring the required infrastructures. It can be utilised for all sustainable urban development for urban planning and design projects to play a pivotal role. The work emphasizes more to develop a methodological framework to analyze the urban blue-green spaces for augmentation with a theoretical framework. It is expected that the advancement of a problem cum objectives-driven approach will help to design an impact-driven approach for planned and concrete action.

Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan

Climate change-induced disasters show the highest risk for agriculture and livelihoods in rural areas of developing countries. Due to changing rainfall pattern, the arid and semiarid region of Pakistan faces frequent droughts. Farming communities affected by drought disasters are causing serious threats to livelihood, global food crises, environmental migration, and sustainable development. The existing study was designed to quantify two key components through (1) analysis of agrometeorological data (1981-2017) with exploratory data analysis and Mann-Kendall trend analysis; (2) extensive field survey (200 households). The multivariate probit model has been run to detect determinants of coping and adaptive strategies by farmers. Our results showed that the farmers supposed that temperature and rainfall were highly fluctuating in recent years equally. Farmers adopted different coping and adaptive measures that include crop diversification, input adjustment, water management, asset depletion, income diversification, and migration to sustain their livelihood during stress periods. The agrometeorological data analysis revealed that the agricultural vulnerability to drought risks increased significantly, and the survey results projected that 64.7% of the population is exposed to drought directly or indirectly. Sen's slope quantification resulted in (0.025 °C) rise in temperature, (- 2.936 mm) decline in rainfall year^-1. Modeling future scenarios resulted in an increase in temperature up to 0.7 °C, 1.2 °C, and a decrease in precipitation up to 161.48 mm, 103.5 mm in 2040 and 2060. The study evaluated a huge gap in the provision of drought risk resilience services, crop insurance, and climate-smart training practices to build capacities among farmers to cope with the impacts of extreme weather conditions. Our research might provide the groundwork to upgrade actions to drought prevention and early warning in water scarcity areas.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-021-04913-4.

Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services

Abstract: Extensive anthropogenic activities driven by the demand for agriculture and forestry products have led to dramatic reductions in biodiversity worldwide and significant changes in the provisioning of ecosystem services. These trends are expected to continue in the future as the world continues to develop without much consideration of the role that nature plays in sustaining human livelihoods. Scenarios and models can be important tools to help policy- and decision-makers foresee the impact of their decisions; thus, increasing capacity in creating such models and scenarios is of utmost importance. However, postgraduate training schools that focus on this topic are still rare. Here we present and reflect on the experience of the São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being (SPSAS Scenarios). In addition, we introduce the Special Issue of Biota Neotropica that resulted from the activities taking place during the SPSAS Scenarios. In total, nine case studies emerged from the activities carried out during SPSAS Scenarios. These focused on a variety of ecosystems, their current drivers of change and expected trends, as well as on the development of alternative positive scenarios applying the recently developed Nature Futures Framework. We emphasize the need to increase capacity in scenario and modelling skills in order to address some of the existing gaps in producing policy-relevant scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services.