1
|
Silva Júnior JNDB, Couto RDM, Alves LC, da Silva DA, Heráclio IDL, Pelissari DM, Andrade KB, Oliveira PB. Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points. Rev Panam Salud Publica 2023; 47:e152. [PMID: 37937313 PMCID: PMC10627430 DOI: 10.26633/rpsp.2023.152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Methods This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis. Results The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of -1.9% (95% CI [-3.4, -0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of -0.4% (95% CI [-1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (-3.5%; 95% CI [-5.0, -1.9]). Conclusions During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- José Nildo de Barros Silva Júnior
- Secretaria de Vigilância em SaúdeMinistry of HealthBrasília, DFBrazilSecretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo de Macedo Couto
- Secretaria de Vigilância em SaúdeMinistry of HealthBrasília, DFBrazilSecretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Layana Costa Alves
- Secretaria de Vigilância em SaúdeMinistry of HealthBrasília, DFBrazilSecretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Daiane Alves da Silva
- Secretaria de Vigilância em SaúdeMinistry of HealthBrasília, DFBrazilSecretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Isabela de Lucena Heráclio
- Secretaria de Vigilância em SaúdeMinistry of HealthBrasília, DFBrazilSecretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Daniele Maria Pelissari
- Secretaria de Vigilância em SaúdeMinistry of HealthBrasília, DFBrazilSecretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Kleydson Bonfim Andrade
- Pan American Health OrganizationBrasília, DFBrazilPan American Health Organization, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Patrícia Bartholomay Oliveira
- Secretaria de Vigilância em SaúdeMinistry of HealthBrasília, DFBrazilSecretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministry of Health, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Peres TG, Castro YM, Corrêa ML, Emmendorfer LR, Zhang L. Trends in tuberculosis mortality among children and adolescents in Brazil, 1996-2020: a joinpoint analysis. J Bras Pneumol 2023; 49:e20230019. [PMID: 37255164 PMCID: PMC10578908 DOI: 10.36416/1806-3756/e20230019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tyele Goulart Peres
- . Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande (RS) Brasil
| | - Yasmin Marques Castro
- . Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande (RS) Brasil
| | - Mariana Lima Corrêa
- . Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas (RS) Brasil
| | - Leonardo Ramos Emmendorfer
- . Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Computação, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria (RS) Brasil
| | - Linjie Zhang
- . Unidade de Pneumologia Pediátrica, Programas de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública e em Ciências da Saúde, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande (RS) Brasil
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Berra TZ, Ramos ACV, Arroyo LH, Delpino FM, de Almeida Crispim J, Alves YM, dos Santos FL, da Costa FBP, dos Santos MS, Alves LS, Fiorati RC, Monroe AA, Gomes D, Arcêncio RA. Risk-prone territories for spreading tuberculosis, temporal trends and their determinants in a high burden city from São Paulo State, Brazil. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:515. [PMID: 35655177 PMCID: PMC9161466 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07500-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives To identify risk-prone areas for the spread of tuberculosis, analyze spatial variation and temporal trends of the disease in these areas and identify their determinants in a high burden city. Methods An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population was composed of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2017. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using the Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were applied to identify risk areas. Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect risk-prone territories with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's Chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality. Results Between 2006 and 2017, 1760 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in the municipality. With spatial scanning, four groups of clusters were identified with relative risks (RR) from 0.19 to 0.52, 1.73, 2.07, and 2.68 to 2.72. With the space–time scan, four clusters were also identified with RR of 0.13 (2008–2013), 1.94 (2010–2015), 2.34 (2006 to 2011), and 2.84 (2014–2017). With the SVTT, a cluster was identified with RR 0.11, an internal time trend of growth (+ 0.09%/year), and an external time trend of decrease (− 0.06%/year). Finally, three risk factors and three protective factors that are associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality were identified, being: race/brown color (OR: 1.26), without education (OR: 1.71), retired (OR: 1.35), 15 years or more of study (OR: 0.73), not having HIV (OR: 0.55) and not having diabetes (OR: 0.35). Conclusion The importance of using spatial analysis tools in identifying areas that should be prioritized for TB control is highlighted, and greater attention is necessary for individuals who fit the profile indicated as “at risk” for the disease. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07500-5.
Collapse
|
4
|
Li B, Liu Y, Peng J, Sun C, Rang W. Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality and Its Influencing Factors in China. Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2021; 14:4809-4821. [PMID: 34876863 PMCID: PMC8643221 DOI: 10.2147/rmhp.s312790] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2021] [Accepted: 10/08/2021] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose To explore the esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality trends and risk factors in China during 2005–2015. Materials and Methods The data were stratified by area (urban, rural), gender (male, female), and age groups (0 ~, 5 ~, …, 85 ~). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), age-specific incidence and mortality were calculated to describe the trends, which were analyzed by Joinpoint software, negative binomial regression model, and age-period-cohort model. Results Trends in EC ASIR decreased markedly during 2010–2015 (APC=−6.14%, P<0.05), and the average annual percent change (AAPC) value was −8.07% (95% confidence interval (CI): −9.98~−6.12) for rural areas during 2005–2015. The ASMR was on a fast-downward trend after 2011 (APC=−6.67%, P<0.05), with AAPC values of −1.34% (95% CI: −2.56~−0.19) for males, −3.39% (95% CI: −5.65, −1.07) for females, and −9.67% (95% CI: −10.56~−8.77) for rural areas during 2005–2015. The age-specific incidence and mortality increased with age. The risk of EC for males was 3.1675 times higher than females (P<0.001), and for urban areas, it was 0.58 times larger than rural (P<0.001). The age and period effects presented an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend for the cohort effects in incidence and mortality risk. Later birth cohorts presented lower risks than previous birth cohorts. Conclusion ASIR and ASMR in China are higher in males than females, and higher in rural than urban areas, which have decreased during 2005–2015, especially in rural areas. The incidence increased with age up to the peak age group of 75. Area, gender, and age were independent risk factors for EC incidence.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bang Li
- Hunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, People's Republic of China.,School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Yan Liu
- Hunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, People's Republic of China.,School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Jiao Peng
- Department of Pathogen Biology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Chao Sun
- School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, People's Republic of China
| | - Weiqing Rang
- Hunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, People's Republic of China
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Brand ÉM, Rossetto M, Hentges B, Winkler GB, Duarte ERM, da Silva LC, Leal AF, Knauth DR, Silva DL, Mantese GHA, Volpato TF, Bobek PR, Dellanhese APF, Teixeira LB. Survival and predictors of death in tuberculosis/HIV coinfection cases in Porto Alegre, Brazil: A historical cohort from 2009 to 2013. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 1:e0000051. [PMID: 36962094 PMCID: PMC10021355 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tuberculosis is a curable disease, which remains the leading cause of death among infectious diseases worldwide, and it is the leading cause of death in people living with HIV. The purpose is to examine survival and predictors of death in Tuberculosis/HIV coinfection cases from 2009 to 2013. METHODS We estimated the survival of 2,417 TB/HIV coinfection cases in Porto Alegre, from diagnosis up to 85 months of follow-up. We estimated hazard ratios and survival curves. RESULTS The adjusted risk ratio (aRR) for death, by age, hospitalization, and Directly Observed Treatment was 4.58 for new cases (95% CI: 1.14-18.4), 4.51 for recurrence (95% CI: 1.11-18.4) and 4.53 for return after abandonment (95% CI: 1.12-18.4). The average survival time was 72.56 ± 1.57 months for those who underwent Directly Observed Treatment and 62.61 ± 0.77 for those who did not. CONCLUSIONS Case classification, age, and hospitalization are predictors of death. The occurrence of Directly Observed Treatment was a protective factor that increased the probability of survival. Policies aimed at reducing the mortality of patients with TB/HIV coinfection are needed.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Évelin Maria Brand
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Maíra Rossetto
- Department of Medicine, Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul, Chapecó, Santa Catarina, Brazil
| | - Bruna Hentges
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Gerson Barreto Winkler
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Erica Rosalba Mallmann Duarte
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Lucas Cardoso da Silva
- European Master in Health Economics and Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, ERASMUS, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Andrea Fachel Leal
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Políticas Públicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Daniela Riva Knauth
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Danielle Lodi Silva
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - George Henrique Aliatti Mantese
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Tiane Farias Volpato
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Paulo Ricardo Bobek
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | | | - Luciana Barcellos Teixeira
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
- Department of Public Health, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Bruce ATI, Berra TZ, Dos Santos FL, Alves YM, Souza LLL, Ramos ACV, Arroyo LH, de Almeida Crispim J, Pinto IC, Palha PF, Monroe AA, Yamamura M, Fiorati RC, Moncaio ACS, de Oliveira Gomes DM, Arcêncio RA. Temporal trends in areas at risk for concomitant tuberculosis in a hyperendemic municipality in the Amazon region of Brazil. Infect Dis Poverty 2020; 9:111. [PMID: 32778170 PMCID: PMC7418188 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00732-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 07/29/2020] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Although preventable and curable, tuberculosis (TB) still occurs in poor or developing countries, mainly in metropolitan regions of larger cities. The disease is a serious public health problem, and is directly linked to social issues. We analyzed temporal trend variations in areas at risk for concomitant TB, and characterized the clinical and epidemiological profiles of cases in a hyperendemic municipality in the Amazon region of Brazil. Methods This ecological study was performed in the municipality of Manaus, in northern Brazil. The population comprised cases with concomitant pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB, registered on the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018. For risk cluster detection, spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistical techniques were used. The Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) approach was used to detect and infer clusters for significantly different time trends. Results Between 2009 and 2018, 873 concomitant TB cases were registered in Manaus. By using purely spatial scanning statistics, we identified two risk clusters. The relative risk (RR) of the clusters was 2.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.57–2.88; P = 0.0031) and 2.03 (95% CI: 1.58–2.58; P = 0.0029). Using space-time scanning, we identified a risk cluster with an RR of 3.57 (95% CI: 2.84–4.41; P = 0.014), between 2017 and 2018. For SVTT analyses, three clusters with spatial variations were detected in the significant temporal trends: SVTT 1 (P = 0.042), SVTT 2 (P = 0.046) and SVTT 3 (P = 0.036). Conclusions In Brazil, several TB-determining factors such as race/color, gender, low educational level and low income overlap in needy urban areas and communities, demonstrating that it is unlikely to reach the goals, agreed and launched with the END TB Strategy within the deadlines of international agreements, if there is no reduction in existing inequities determinants and risk of illness in the country.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre Tadashi Inomata Bruce
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
| | - Thais Zamboni Berra
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Felipe Lima Dos Santos
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Yan Mathias Alves
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Ludmilla Leidianne Limirio Souza
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Luiz Henrique Arroyo
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Juliane de Almeida Crispim
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Ione Carvalho Pinto
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Pedro Fredemir Palha
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Aline Aparecida Monroe
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Mellina Yamamura
- Department of Nursing, Federal University of São Carlos, São Carlos, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Regina Célia Fiorati
- Department of Neurosciences and Behavioral Sciences, Ribeirão Preto Medical School of the University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | - Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio
- Department of Maternal-Infant and Public Health Nursing, University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|