Dynamic prediction of the risk of recurrence in patients over 60 years of age with differentiated thyroid carcinoma

Modified dynamic risk stratification system further predicts individual outcome in patients with intermediate-risk papillary thyroid cancer

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the contribution of initial treatment response to further refining prediction of individual outcomes in intermediate-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) on the American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification system. Dynamic risk stratification (DRS) as originally proposed by Tuttle et al. in 2010 was modified to also include serum antithyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb) as a surrogate marker of the likelihood of persistent disease, specifically in patients with thyroglobulin assay interference by TgAb.

METHODS

Three hundred and seventy-three patients with ATA intermediate-risk PTC were enrolled retrospectively upon reviewing medical records. Patients were followed at the National Cancer Institute in Bogota, Colombia after being treated with total thyroidectomy and I-131 therapy between 2009 and 2013. Best response to initial therapy was classified as excellent, indeterminate, biochemically incomplete or structurally incomplete. Final disease status after a median follow-up of 7.1 years was classified as no evidence of disease (NED), indeterminate, or persistent disease (either biochemically or structurally). The rate of recurrence was determined in excellent responders.

RESULTS

Excellent response was achieved by 164 patients (43.9%). At a median follow-up of 42 months, 19 (11.6%) had experienced recurrence. 87.4% of initially excellent responders available at the final checkpoint were NED, compared to 28% of those with biochemically or structurally incomplete response and to 60.2% of all ATA intermediate-risk PTC patients in our cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified DRS further predicted individual outcomes in intermediate-risk PTC, potentially allowing ongoing management to be tailored accordingly.

Applicability of Dynamic Risk Stratification for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer (DTC) in a Resource Limited Setting

Dynamic risk stratification (DRS) in DTC has been considered necessary to deliver correct follow-up (FU) treatment, avoiding overtreatment of low risk/intermediate risk patients as well as inadequate treatment of high risk patients. However, it's clinical applicability has been questioned in comparison with more conventional FU protocols. We aimed to know the predictive reliability of DRS in monitoring FU of DTC in a resource-constrained setting across various risk groups, especially when compared with clinical examination alone.

Dynamic risk stratification in the follow-up of thyroid cancer: what is still to be discovered in 2017?

The adequate risk stratification in thyroid carcinoma is crucial to avoid on one hand the overtreatment of low-risk and on the other hand the undertreatment of high-risk patients. The question how to properly assess the risk of relapse has been discussed during recent years and resulted in a substantial change in our approach to risk stratification in differentiated thyroid cancer, proposed by the newest ATA guidelines. First initial risk stratification, based on histopathological data is carried out just after primary surgery. It should be emphasized, that a high quality of histopathological report is crucial for proper risk stratification. Next, during the follow-up, patients are restratified considering their response to treatment applied and classified to one of the following categories: excellent response, biochemical incomplete response, structural incomplete or indeterminate response. This new approach is called dynamic risk stratification as, in contrary to the previous rigid evaluation performed at diagnosis, reflects a real-time prognosis and thereby substantially influences and personalizes disease management. In this review, we raise some unresolved questions, among them the lack of prospective studies, fulfilling evidence-based criteria, necessary to validate this model of risk stratification. We also provided some data concerning the use of dynamic risk stratification in medullary thyroid cancer, not yet reflected in ATA guidelines. In conclusion, dynamic risk stratification allows for better prediction of the risk of recurrence in thyroid carcinoma, what has been demonstrated in numerous retrospective analyses. However, the validation of this approach in prospective studies seems to be our task for near future.