Predicting spring moth emergence in the pink bollworm (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae): implications for managing resistance to transgenic cotton

Large-Scale Evaluation of Association Between Pheromone Trap Captures and Cotton Boll Infestation for Pink Bollworm (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

Although transgenic cotton producing insecticidal proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a cornerstone for pink bollworm control in some countries, integrated pest management remains important for bolstering sustainability of Bt cotton and is critical for controlling pink bollworm where Bt cotton is not available or where this pest has evolved resistance to Bt cotton. Here, we used data on moth captures in gossyplure-baited pheromone traps and boll infestations for 163 Bt and 152 non-Bt cotton fields from Arizona to evaluate accuracy of chemical control decisions relying on moth trapping data and capacity of Bt cotton to suppress survival of offspring produced by moths. Assuming an economic injury level of 12% boll infestation, the accuracy of decisions based on moth captures corresponding to economic thresholds of 6%, 8%, and 10% boll infestation increased from 44.7% to 67.1%. The association between moth captures and boll infestation was positive and significant for non-Bt cotton fields but was not significant for Bt cotton fields. Although chemical control decisions based on trapping data were only moderately accurate, pheromone traps could still be valuable for determining when moth populations are high enough to trigger boll sampling to more rigorously evaluate the need for insecticide sprays.

Ecoinformatics (Big Data) for Agricultural Entomology: Pitfalls, Progress, and Promise

Ecoinformatics, as defined in this review, is the use of preexisting data sets to address questions in ecology. We provide the first review of ecoinformatics methods in agricultural entomology. Ecoinformatics methods have been used to address the full range of questions studied by agricultural entomologists, enabled by the special opportunities associated with data sets, nearly all of which have been observational, that are larger and more diverse and that embrace larger spatial and temporal scales than most experimental studies do. We argue that ecoinformatics research methods and traditional, experimental research methods have strengths and weaknesses that are largely complementary. We address the important interpretational challenges associated with observational data sets, highlight common pitfalls, and propose some best practices for researchers using these methods. Ecoinformatics methods hold great promise as a vehicle for capitalizing on the explosion of data emanating from farmers, researchers, and the public, as novel sampling and sensing techniques are developed and digital data sharing becomes more widespread.

Resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis toxin Cry2Ab and survival on single-toxin and pyramided cotton in cotton bollworm from China

Evolution of Helicoverpa armigera resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton producing Cry1Ac is progressing in northern China, and replacement of Cry1Ac cotton by pyramided Bt cotton has been considered to counter such resistance. Here, we investigated four of the eight conditions underlying success of the refuge strategy for delaying resistance to Cry1Ac+Cry2Ab cotton, a pyramid that has been used extensively against H. armigera outside China. Laboratory bioassays of a Cry2Ab‐selected strain (An2Ab) and a related unselected strain (An) reveal that resistance to Cry2Ab (130‐fold) was nearly dominant, autosomally inherited, and controlled by more than one locus. Strong cross‐resistance occurred between Cry2Ab and Cry2Aa (81‐fold). Weaker cross‐resistance (18‐ to 22‐fold) between Cry2Ab and Cry1A toxins was also present and significantly increased survival of An2Ab relative to An on cotton cultivars producing the fusion protein Cry1Ac/Cry1Ab or Cry1Ac. Survival on Cry1Ac+Cry2Ab cotton was also significantly higher in An2Ab than in An, showing that redundant killing on this pyramid was incomplete. Survival on non‐Bt cotton did not differ significantly between An2Ab and An, indicating an absence of fitness costs affecting this trait. These results indicate that a switch to three‐toxin pyramided cotton could be valuable for increasing durability of Bt cotton in China.

Effects of entomopathogenic nematodes on evolution of pink bollworm resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis toxin Cry1Ac

The evolution of resistance by pests can reduce the efficacy of transgenic crops that produce insecticidal toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). However, fitness costs may act to delay pest resistance to Bt toxins. Meta-analysis of results from four previous studies revealed that the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema riobrave (Rhabditida: Steinernematidae) imposed a 20% fitness cost for larvae of pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), that were homozygous for resistance to Bt toxin Cry1Ac, but no significant fitness cost was detected for heterozygotes. We conducted greenhouse and laboratory selection experiments to determine whether S. riobrave would delay the evolution of pink bollworm resistance to Cry1Ac. We mimicked the high dose/refuge scenario in the greenhouse with Bt cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) plants and refuges of non-Bt cotton plants, and in the laboratory with diet containing Cry1Ac and refuges of untreated diet. In both experiments, half of the replicates were exposed to S. riobrave and half were not. In the greenhouse, S. riobrave did not delay resistance. In the laboratory, S. riobrave delayed resistance after two generations but not after four generations. Simulation modeling showed that an initial resistance allele frequency > 0.015 and population bottlenecks can diminish or eliminate the resistance-delaying effects of fitness costs. We hypothesize that these factors may have reduced the resistance-delaying effects of S. riobrave in the selection experiments. The experimental and modeling results suggest that entomopathogenic nematodes could slow the evolution of pest resistance to Bt crops, but only under some conditions.

Analysis of sustainable pest control using a pesticide and a screened refuge

We describe and analyze a 'screened refuge' technique for indefinitely sustaining control of insect pests using transgenic pesticidal crops or an applied pesticide, even when resistance is not recessive. The screen is a physical barrier that restricts pest movement. In a deterministic discrete-time model of the use of this technique, we obtain asymptotic analytical formulas for the two important equilibria of the system in terms of the refuge size and the pest fitnesses, mutation rates, and mobility out of and into the refuge. One of the equilibria is stable and is the point at which the pest population is controlled. The other is a saddle whose stable manifold bounds the basin of attraction of the former: its location provides a measure of the tolerance of the control mechanism to perturbations in the resistant allele density.

Evolutionary ecology of insect adaptation to Bt crops

Transgenic crops producing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins are used worldwide to control major pests of corn and cotton. Development of strategies to delay the evolution of pest resistance to Bt crops requires an understanding of factors affecting responses to natural selection, which include variation in survival on Bt crops, heritability of resistance, and fitness advantages associated with resistance mutations. The two main strategies adopted for delaying resistance are the refuge and pyramid strategies. Both can reduce heritability of resistance, but pyramids can also delay resistance by reducing genetic variation for resistance. Seasonal declines in the concentration of Bt toxins in transgenic cultivars, however, can increase the heritability of resistance. The fitness advantages associated with resistance mutations can be reduced by agronomic practices, including increasing refuge size, manipulating refuges to increase fitness costs, and manipulating Bt cultivars to reduce fitness of resistant individuals. Manipulating costs and fitness of resistant individuals on transgenic insecticidal crops may be especially important for thwarting evolution of resistance in haplodiploid and parthenogenetic pests. Field-evolved resistance to Bt crops in only five pests during the last 14 years suggests that the refuge strategy has successfully delayed resistance, but the accumulation of resistant pests could accelerate.

Simulation as experiment: a philosophical reassessment for biological modeling

Some scientific modelers suggest that complex simulation models that mimic biological processes should have a limited place in ecological and evolutionary studies. However, complex simulation models can have a role that is different from that of simpler models that are designed to be fit to data. Simulation can be viewed as another kind of experimental system and should be analyzed as such. Here, I argue that current discussions in the philosophy of science and in the physical sciences fields about the use of simulation as an experimental system have important implications for biology, especially complex sciences such as evolution and ecology. Simulation models can be used to mimic complex systems, but unlike nature, can be manipulated in ways that would be impossible, too costly or unethical to do in natural systems. Simulation can add to theory development and testing, can offer hypotheses about the way the world works and can give guidance as to which data are most important to gather experimentally.

Long-term regional suppression of pink bollworm by Bacillus thuringiensis cotton

Despite the potentially profound impact of genetically modified crops on agriculture and the environment, we know little about their long-term effects. Transgenic crops that produce toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) to control insects are grown widely, but rapid evolution of resistance by pests could nullify their benefits. Here, we present theoretical analyses showing that long-term suppression of pest populations is governed by interactions among reproductive rate, dispersal propensity, and regional abundance of a Bt crop. Supporting this theory, a 10-year study in 15 regions across Arizona shows that Bt cotton suppressed a major pest, pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella), independent of demographic effects of weather and variation among regions. Pink bollworm population density declined only in regions where Bt cotton was abundant. Such long-term suppression has not been observed with insecticide sprays, showing that transgenic crops open new avenues for pest control. The debate about putative benefits of Bt crops has focused primarily on short-term decreases in insecticide use. The present findings suggest that long-term regional pest suppression after deployment of Bt crops may also contribute to reducing the need for insecticide sprays.