Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958-2009

A comparative study on the dose-effect of low-dose radiation based on microdosimetric analysis and single-cell sequencing technology

The biological mechanisms triggered by low-dose exposure still need to be explored in depth. In this study, the potential mechanisms of low-dose radiation when irradiating the BEAS-2B cell lines with a Cs-137 gamma-ray source were investigated through simulations and experiments. Monolayer cell population models were constructed for simulating and analyzing distributions of nucleus-specific energy within cell populations combined with the Monte Carlo method and microdosimetric analysis. Furthermore, the 10 × Genomics single-cell sequencing technology was employed to capture the heterogeneity of individual cell responses to low-dose radiation in the same irradiated sample. The numerical uncertainties can be found both in the specific energy distribution in microdosimetry and in differential gene expressions in radiation cytogenetics. Subsequently, the distribution of nucleus-specific energy was compared with the distribution of differential gene expressions to guide the selection of differential genes bioinformatics analysis. Dose inhomogeneity is pronounced at low doses, where an increase in dose corresponds to a decrease in the dispersion of cellular-specific energy distribution. Multiple screening of differential genes by microdosimetric features and statistical analysis indicate a number of potential pathways induced by low-dose exposure. It also provides a novel perspective on the selection of sensitive biomarkers that respond to low-dose radiation.

Negative Aspects of Self-Imposed Evacuation among Mothers of Small Children Following Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

This study clarified the negative aspects of the self-imposed evacuation of mothers of small children seeking to avoid radiation exposure from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident on 11 March 2011. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 27 mothers, employing open-ended inquiries based on an interview guide. Our analysis of their responses using the Ka-Wakita-Jiro (KJ) method categorized the results into eight distinct groups comprising 142 labels. These categories included continued anxiety about the health effects of radiation, differences in risk perception, changes in spousal relationships, the inability to make friends and find support, living as a single parent, financial concerns, the unfamiliar feel of the area to which they evacuated, and uncertainty about the future. Despite their hardships, the mothers continued their self-imposed evacuation to avoid radioactivity. Our findings underscore that their anxieties about radiation exposure persisted even after self-imposed evacuation, leading to deteriorated relationships with key individuals who would have been involved in raising their children. These results offer valuable insights into the challenges experienced by the indirect victims of the nuclear accident, such as the mothers of small children.

Reasons why the idea that radiation exposures induce cancer needs to be revisited

PURPOSE

It has long been thought that the carcinogenic effect of radiation resulted from the induction of oncogenic mutations which then led to an increase in the proportion of cancer-bearing individuals. However, even as early as the 1960s, there were indications that the carcinogenic effect of radiation might result from the induction of an earlier onset of cancer. Recently, the former notion was challenged by its inability to explain time-dependent decline of the relative risk following an exposure to radiation, and a parallel shift of mouse survival curves toward younger ages following an exposure to radiation. The two observations are clearly understood if it is assumed only that a radiation exposure causes an earlier onset of spontaneously occurring cancers.

METHOD

In the present study, a critical review was conducted which examined papers that showed dose responses which apparently supported the mutation induction theory of radiation carcinogenesis.

RESULTS

It was found that there were two types of misleading experimental designs: one consisted of studies in which observations were prematurely terminated, and which consequently hid a complete story of radiation carcinogenesis. The other set of papers used age adjustments which were derived from the idea that the life shortening effect of radiation needs to be compensated for since tumor mortality becomes higher among older subjects. This type of adjustment appeared reasonable but was found actually to be a different form of description on an earlier onset of cancer following radiation exposures.

CONCLUSION

In mouse experiments, radiation exposures did not lead to the induction of a large increase in the proportion of tumor deaths when life-long observations were made. Human epidemiologic data are also in line with the earlier onset hypothesis of radiation action. It should be cautioned, however, that the earlier onset model applies only to malignancies whose mortality increases rapidly with the increase of age and does not apply to diseases of short latency such as childhood leukemia and thyroid cancers.

Recurrent medical imaging exposures for the care of patients: one way forward

Medical imaging is both valuable and essential in the care of patients. Much of this imaging depends on ionizing radiation with attendant responsibilities for judicious use when performing an examination. This responsibility applies in settings of both individual as well as multiple (recurrent) imaging with associated repeated radiation exposures. In addressing the roles and responsibilities of the medical communities in the paradigm of recurrent imaging, both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) have issued position statements, each affirmed by other organizations. The apparent difference in focus and approach has resulted in a lack of clarity and continued debate. Aiming towards a coherent approach in dealing with radiation exposure in recurrent imaging, the IAEA convened a panel of experts, the purpose of which was to identify common ground and reconcile divergent perspectives. The effort has led to clarifying recommendations for radiation exposure aspects of recurrent imaging, including the relevance of patient agency and the provider-patient covenant in clinical decision-making. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: An increasing awareness, generating some lack of clarity and divergence in perspectives, with patients receiving relatively high radiation doses (e.g., ≥ 100 mSv) from recurrent imaging warrants a multi-stakeholder accord for the benefit of patients, providers, and the imaging community. KEY POINTS: • Recurrent medical imaging can result in an accumulation of exposures which exceeds 100 milli Sieverts. • Professional organizations have different perspectives on roles and responsibilities for recurrent imaging. • An expert panel reconciles differing perspectives for addressing radiation exposure from recurrent medical imaging.

Assessing the impact of neutron relative biological effectiveness on all solid cancer mortality risks in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

PURPOSE

Risk analyses, based on relative biological effectiveness (RBE) estimates for neutrons relative to gammas, were performed; and the change in the curvature of the risk to dose response with increasing neutron RBE was analyzed using all solid cancer mortality data from the Radiation Effect Research Foundation (RERF). Results were compared to those based on incidence data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This analysis is based on RERF mortality data with separate neutron and gamma doses for colon doses, from which organ averaged doses could be calculated. A model for risk ratio variation with RBE was developed.

RESULTS

The best estimate of the neutron RBE considering mortality data was 200 (95% confidence interval (CI): 50-1010) for colon dose using the weighted-dose approach and for organ averaged dose 110 (95% CI: 30-350). The ERR risk ratios for all solid cancers combined, for the best fitting neutron RBE estimate and the neutron RBE of 10 result in a ratio of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.17-0.85) for colon dose and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.18-0.87) for organ averaged dose. The risk to dose response curvature became significantly negative (concave down) with increasing RBE, at a neutron RBE of 170 using colon dose and at an RBE of 90 using organ averaged dose for males when fitting a linear-quadratic dose response. For females, the curvature decreased toward linearity with increasing neutron RBE and remained significantly positive until RBE of 80 and 40 using colon and organ averaged dose, respectively. For higher neutron RBEs, no significant conclusion could be drawn about the shape of the dose-response curve.

CONCLUSIONS

Application of neutron RBE values higher than 10 results in substantially reduced cancer mortality risk estimates and a significant reduction in curvature of the risk to dose responses for males. Using mortality data, the best fitting neutron RBE is much higher than when incidence data is used. The neutron RBE ranges covered by the overlap in the CIs from both the mortality and incidence analyses are 50-190 using colon dose and in all cases, the best fitting neutron RBE and lower 95% CI are higher than the value of 10 traditionally applied by the RERF. Therefore, it is recommended to consider uncertainties in neutron RBE values when calculating radiation risks and discussing the shape of dose responses using Japanese A-bomb survivors data.

Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer and Lifestyle Modification for Prevention

Gastric cancer has been consistently decreasing worldwide, whereas cardia gastric cancer is on the rise. This indicates that the exposure rates to epidemiological causes are changing. In this study, we aim to review the risk factors for gastric cancer with respect to cardia and non-cardia types. One of the most significant risk factors for gastric cancer is Helicobacter pylori infection. H. pylori infection is known as a risk factor for non-cardia gastric cancer, and there have been results indicating that H. pylori infection is not associated with cardia gastric cancer. However, in the East Asian region, there is epidemiological evidence suggesting that H. pylori infection might be a risk factor for cardia gastric cancer. Smoking and alcohol consumption are known risk factors for gastric cancer, regardless of anatomical location. Obesity is considered a factor in the development of cardia gastric cancer. However, further research is needed to understand the specific relationship with non-cardia gastric cancer. The consumption of high-salt and processed meat is more distinctly associated with non-cardia gastric cancer than in cardia gastric cancer. In addition to these factors, exposure to chemicals and radiation are considered risk factors for gastric cancer. Primary prevention of gastric cancer involves eliminating or avoiding risk factors such as H. pylori eradication and adopting a healthy lifestyle, including quitting smoking, reducing alcohol consumption, maintaining a healthy weight, and having a low-salt diet.

Optimisation of protection in the medical exposure of recurrent adult patients due to computed tomography procedures: development of recurrent exposures reference levels

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incidence (1 year) and the cumulative incidence (3 years) of the condition of patients accruing cumulative effective doses (CED) of ≥ 100 mSv and their variability among different hospitals. To establish and validate a reference level for the CED in patients with recurrent exposures (RERL) and provide a RERL value.

METHODS

Data of CT exposure was collected in 9 similar hospitals. The database included 294,222 patient*years who underwent 442,278 CT exams in 3 years. The incidence proportion of patients with CED ≥ 100 mSv in a given year (I100;1) and the 3-year cumulative incidence of patients with CED ≥ 100 mSv over 3 consecutive years (I100;3) were calculated and compared among different institutions.

RESULTS

I100;1 ranged from a minimum of 0.1% to a maximum of 5.1%. The percentage of recurrent patients was quite uniform among centres ranging from 23 to 38%. The I100;3 ranged from a minimum of 1.1 to 11.4%. There was a strong positive correlation between the third quartile values of yearly CED and yearly incidence (r = 0.90; R2 = 0.81; p < 0.0001). RERL value in our study was found at 34.0 mSv.

CONCLUSION

The management of patients with recurrent exposures is highly variable among hospitals leading to a 50-fold variation in I100;1 and to a tenfold variation in I100;3. RERL could be established and used by taking as a RERL quantity the CED and as a RERL value the 75th percentile of the third quartiles of the distribution of the yearly CED obtained by surveying different hospitals.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

This is the first ever multicentre study that quantifies recurrent exposures in terms of incidence and cumulative incidence of patients with CED ≥ 100 mSv. RERL establishment and use could benefit the optimisation of radioprotection of patients with recurrent exposures.

KEY POINTS

This is the first multicentre study estimating yearly incidence and 3-year cumulative incidence of patients with cumulative effective doses ≥ 100 mSv. In this study, a 50-fold inter centre variation between the maximum (5.1%) and the minimum value (0.1%) of yearly incidence of patients with cumulative effective doses ≥ 100 mSv was reported. The range of the 3-year cumulative incidence extended from 1.1 to 11.4% (a tenfold variation) The third quartile of the yearly cumulative effective doses in a centre showed a strong positive correlation with the yearly incidence of patients with cumulative effective doses ≥ 100 mSv, with a potential of being used to set reference levels for recurrent exposures.

Cancer mortality after low dose exposure to ionising radiation in workers in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States (INWORKS): cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of protracted low dose, low dose rate exposure to ionising radiation on the risk of cancer.

DESIGN

Multinational cohort study.

SETTING

Cohorts of workers in the nuclear industry in France, the UK, and the US included in a major update to the International Nuclear Workers Study (INWORKS).

PARTICIPANTS

309 932 workers with individual monitoring data for external exposure to ionising radiation and a total follow-up of 10.7 million person years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Estimates of excess relative rate per gray (Gy) of radiation dose for mortality from cancer.

RESULTS

The study included 103 553 deaths, of which 28 089 were due to solid cancers. The estimated rate of mortality due to solid cancer increased with cumulative dose by 52% (90% confidence interval 27% to 77%) per Gy, lagged by 10 years. Restricting the analysis to the low cumulative dose range (0-100 mGy) approximately doubled the estimate of association (and increased the width of its confidence interval), as did restricting the analysis to workers hired in the more recent years of operations when estimates of occupational external penetrating radiation dose were recorded more accurately. Exclusion of deaths from lung cancer and pleural cancer had a modest effect on the estimated magnitude of association, providing indirect evidence that the association was not substantially confounded by smoking or occupational exposure to asbestos.

CONCLUSIONS

This major update to INWORKS provides a direct estimate of the association between protracted low dose exposure to ionising radiation and solid cancer mortality based on some of the world's most informative cohorts of radiation workers. The summary estimate of excess relative rate solid cancer mortality per Gy is larger than estimates currently informing radiation protection, and some evidence suggests a steeper slope for the dose-response association in the low dose range than over the full dose range. These results can help to strengthen radiation protection, especially for low dose exposures that are of primary interest in contemporary medical, occupational, and environmental settings.

Noncancer Effects of Ionizing Radiation Exposure on the Eye, the Circulatory System and beyond: Developments made since the 2011 ICRP Statement on Tissue Reactions

For radiation protection purposes, noncancer effects with a threshold-type dose-response relationship have been classified as tissue reactions (formerly called nonstochastic or deterministic effects), and equivalent dose limits aim to prevent occurrence of such tissue reactions. Accumulating evidence demonstrates increased risks for several late occurring noncancer effects at doses and dose rates much lower than previously considered. In 2011, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) issued a statement on tissue reactions to recommend a threshold of 0.5 Gy to the lens of the eye for cataracts and to the heart and brain for diseases of the circulatory system (DCS), independent of dose rate. Literature published thereafter continues to provide updated knowledge. Increased risks for cataracts below 0.5 Gy have been reported in several cohorts (e.g., including in those receiving protracted or chronic exposures). A dose threshold for cataracts is less evident with longer follow-up, with limited evidence available for risk of cataract removal surgery. There is emerging evidence for risk of normal-tension glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy, but the long-held tenet that the lens represents among the most radiosensitive tissues in the eye and in the body seems to remain unchanged. For DCS, increased risks have been reported in various cohorts, but the existence or otherwise of a dose threshold is unclear. The level of risk is less uncertain at lower dose and lower dose rate, with the possibility that risk per unit dose is greater at lower doses and dose rates. Target organs and tissues for DCS are also unknown, but may include heart, large blood vessels and kidneys. Identification of potential factors (e.g., sex, age, lifestyle factors, coexposures, comorbidities, genetics and epigenetics) that may modify radiation risk of cataracts and DCS would be important. Other noncancer effects on the radar include neurological effects (e.g., Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease and dementia) of which elevated risk has increasingly been reported. These late occurring noncancer effects tend to deviate from the definition of tissue reactions, necessitating more scientific developments to reconsider the radiation effect classification system and risk management. This paper gives an overview of historical developments made in ICRP prior to the 2011 statement and an update on relevant developments made since the 2011 ICRP statement.

Of Men and Mice: Using Terrestrial Radiation Epidemiology Methods to Inform Analysis of Animal Models for Space Radiation Risk Assessment

Prediction of cancer risk from space radiation exposure is critical to ensure spaceflight crewmembers are adequately informed of the risks they face when accepting assignments to ambitious long-duration exploratory missions. Although epidemiological studies have assessed the effects of exposure to terrestrial radiation, no robust epidemiological studies of humans exposed to space radiation exist to support estimates of the risk from space radiation exposure. Mouse data derived from recent irradiation experiments provides valuable information to successfully develop mouse-based excess risks models for assessing relative biological effectiveness for heavy ions that can provide information to scale unique space radiation exposures so that excess risks estimated for terrestrial radiation can be adjusted for space radiation risk assessment. Bayesian analyses were used to simulate linear slopes for excess risk models with several different effect modifiers for attained age and sex. Relative biological effectiveness values for all-solid cancer mortality were calculated from the ratio of the heavy-ion linear slope to the gamma linear slope using the full posterior distribution and resulted in values that were substantially lower than what is currently applied in risk assessment. These analyses provide an opportunity to improve characterization of parameters used in the current NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model and generate new hypotheses for future animal experiments using out-bred mouse populations.

The scientific basis for the use of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model at low doses and dose rates in radiological protection

The linear no-threshold (LNT) model was introduced into the radiological protection system about 60 years ago, but this model and its use in radiation protection are still debated today. This article presents an overview of results on effects of exposure to low linear-energy-transfer radiation in radiobiology and epidemiology accumulated over the last decade and discusses their impact on the use of the LNT model in the assessment of radiation-related cancer risks at low doses. The knowledge acquired over the past 10 years, both in radiobiology and epidemiology, has reinforced scientific knowledge about cancer risks at low doses. In radiobiology, although certain mechanisms do not support linearity, the early stages of carcinogenesis comprised of mutational events, which are assumed to play a key role in carcinogenesis, show linear responses to doses from as low as 10 mGy. The impact of non-mutational mechanisms on the risk of radiation-related cancer at low doses is currently difficult to assess. In epidemiology, the results show excess cancer risks at dose levels of 100 mGy or less. While some recent results indicate non-linear dose relationships for some cancers, overall, the LNT model does not substantially overestimate the risks at low doses. Recent results, in radiobiology or in epidemiology, suggest that a dose threshold, if any, could not be greater than a few tens of mGy. The scientific knowledge currently available does not contradict the use of the LNT model for the assessment of radiation-related cancer risks within the radiological protection system, and no other dose-risk relationship seems more appropriate for radiological protection purposes.

High-LET-Radiation-Induced Persistent DNA Damage Response Signaling and Gastrointestinal Cancer Development

Ionizing radiation (IR) dose, dose rate, and linear energy transfer (LET) determine cellular DNA damage quality and quantity. High-LET heavy ions are prevalent in the deep space environment and can deposit a much greater fraction of total energy in a shorter distance within a cell, causing extensive DNA damage relative to the same dose of low-LET photon radiation. Based on the DNA damage tolerance of a cell, cellular responses are initiated for recovery, cell death, senescence, or proliferation, which are determined through a concerted action of signaling networks classified as DNA damage response (DDR) signaling. The IR-induced DDR initiates cell cycle arrest to repair damaged DNA. When DNA damage is beyond the cellular repair capacity, the DDR for cell death is initiated. An alternative DDR-associated anti-proliferative pathway is the onset of cellular senescence with persistent cell cycle arrest, which is primarily a defense mechanism against oncogenesis. Ongoing DNA damage accumulation below the cell death threshold but above the senescence threshold, along with persistent SASP signaling after chronic exposure to space radiation, pose an increased risk of tumorigenesis in the proliferative gastrointestinal (GI) epithelium, where a subset of IR-induced senescent cells can acquire a senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) and potentially drive oncogenic signaling in nearby bystander cells. Moreover, DDR alterations could result in both somatic gene mutations as well as activation of the pro-inflammatory, pro-oncogenic SASP signaling known to accelerate adenoma-to-carcinoma progression during radiation-induced GI cancer development. In this review, we describe the complex interplay between persistent DNA damage, DDR, cellular senescence, and SASP-associated pro-inflammatory oncogenic signaling in the context of GI carcinogenesis.

Effect of radiation exposure on survival after first solid cancer diagnosis in A-bomb survivors

BACKGROUND

Comparison of the estimated effect of atomic bomb radiation exposure on solid cancer incidence and solid cancer mortality in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) reveals a difference in the magnitude and shape of the excess relative risk dose response. A possible contributing factor to this difference is pre-diagnosis radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival. Pre-diagnosis radiation exposure theoretically could influence post-diagnosis survival by affecting the genetic makeup and possibly aggressiveness of cancer, or by compromising tolerance for aggressive treatment for cancer.

METHODS

We analyze the radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival in 20,463 LSS subjects diagnosed with first-primary solid cancer between 1958 and 2009 with particular attention to whether death was caused by the first-primary cancer, other cancer, or non-cancer diseases.

RESULTS

From multivariable Cox regression analysis of cause-specific survival, the excess hazard at 1 Gy (EH_1Gy) for death from the first primary cancer was not significantly different from zero - p = 0.23, EH_1Gy = 0.038 (95 % CI: -0.023, 0.104). Death from other cancer and death from non-cancer diseases both were significantly associated with radiation dose: other cancer EH_1Gy = 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.24, 0.53); non-cancer EH_1Gy = 0.24 (95 % CI: 0.13, 0.36), both p < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

There is no detectable large effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on post-diagnosis death from the first primary cancer in A-bomb survivors.

IMPACT

A direct effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on cancer prognosis is ruled out as an explanation for the difference in incidence and mortality dose response in A-bomb survivors.

Comparison and multi-model inference of excess risks models for radiation-related solid cancer

In assessments of detrimental health risks from exposures to ionising radiation, many forms of risk to dose-response models are available in the literature. The usual practice is to base risk assessment on one specific model and ignore model uncertainty. The analysis illustrated here considers model uncertainty for the outcome all solid cancer incidence, when modelled as a function of colon organ dose, using the most recent publicly available data from the Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors of Japan. Seven recent publications reporting all solid cancer risk models currently deemed plausible by the scientific community have been included in a model averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model. The models have been estimated with different baselines and presented for males and females at various attained ages and ages at exposure, to obtain specially computed model-averaged Excess Relative Risks (ERR) and Excess Absolute Risks (EAR). Monte Carlo simulated estimation of uncertainty on excess risks was accounted for by applying realisations including correlations in the risk model parameters. Three models were found to weight the model-averaged risks most strongly depending on the baseline and information criteria used for the weighting. Fitting all excess risk models with the same baseline, one model dominates for both information criteria considered in this study. Based on the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.

Updated Mortality Analysis of SELTINE, the French Cohort of Nuclear Workers, 1968-2014

Cohorts of nuclear workers are particularly relevant to study the health effects of protracted exposures to low doses at low dose-rates of ionizing radiation (IR). In France, a cohort of nuclear workers badge-monitored for external IR exposure has been followed-up for several decades. Its size and follow-up period have recently been extended. The present paper focuses on mortality from both cancer and non-cancer diseases in this cohort. The SELTINE cohort of nuclear workers employed by CEA, Orano, and EDF companies was followed-up for mortality from 1968 to 2014. Mortality in the cohort was compared to that in the French general population. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative rates of mortality per unit of cumulative dose of IR, adjusted for calendar year, age, company, duration of employment, and socioeconomic status. The cohort included 80,348 workers. At the end of the follow-up, the mean attained age was 63 years, and 15,695 deaths were observed. A strong healthy worker effect was observed overall. A significant excess of pleural cancer mortality was observed but not associated with IR dose. Death from solid cancers was positively but non-significantly associated with radiation. Death from leukaemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia), dementia, and Alzheimer's disease were positively and significantly associated with IR dose. Estimated dose-risk relationships were consistent with those from other nuclear worker studies for all solid cancers and leukaemia but remained associated with large uncertainty. The association between IR dose and dementia mortality risk should be interpreted with caution and requires further investigation by other studies.

Low-Dose Extrapolation Factors Implied by Mortality and Incidence Data from the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivor Life Span Study Data

Assessment of the effect of low dose and low-dose-rate exposure depends critically on extrapolation from groups exposed at high dose and high-dose rates such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivor data, and has often been achieved via application of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). An important component of DDREF is the factor determining the effect of extrapolation of dose, the so-called low-dose extrapolation factor (LDEF). To assess LDEF models linear (or linear quadratic) in dose are often fitted. In this report LDEF is assessed via fitting relative rate models that are linear or linear quadratic in dose to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor data on solid cancer, leukemia and circulatory disease mortality (followed from 1950 through 2003) and to data on solid cancer, lung cancer and urinary tract cancer incidence. The uncertainties in LDEF are assessed using parametric bootstrap techniques. Analysis is restricted to survivors with <3 Gy dose. There is modest evidence for upward curvature in dose response in the mortality data. For leukemia and for all solid cancer excluding lung, stomach and breast cancer there is significant curvature (P < 0.05). There is no evidence of curvature for circulatory disease (P > 0.5). The estimate of LDEF for all solid cancer mortality is 1.273 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.913, 2.182], for all solid cancer mortality excluding lung cancer, stomach cancer and breast cancer is 2.183 (95% CI 1.090, >100) and for leukemia mortality is 11.447 (95% CI 2.390, >100). For stomach cancer mortality LDEF is modestly raised, 1.077 (95% CI 0.526, >100), while for lung cancer, female breast cancer and circulatory disease mortality the LDEF does not much exceed 1. LDEF for solid cancer incidence is 1.186 (95% CI 0.942, 1.626) and for urinary tract cancer is 1.298 (95% CI <0, 7.723), although for lung cancer LDEF is not elevated, 0.842 (95% CI 0.344, >100).