Is there Unmeasured Indication Bias in Radiation-Related Cancer Risk Estimates from Studies of Computed Tomography?

Finite-Sample Bias of the Linear Excess Relative Risk in Cohort Studies of Computed Tomography-Related Radiation Exposure and Cancer

The linear excess relative risk (ERR) is the most commonly reported measure of association in radiation epidemiological studies, when individual dose estimates are available. While the asymptotic properties of the ERR estimator are well understood, there is evidence of small sample bias in case-control studies of treatment-related radiation exposure and second cancer risk. Cohort studies of cancer risk after exposure to low doses of radiation from diagnostic procedures, e.g., computed tomography (CT) examinations, typically have small numbers of cases and risks are small. Therefore, understanding the properties of the estimated ERR is essential for interpretation and analysis of such studies. We present results of a simulation study that evaluates the finite-sample bias of the ERR estimated by time-to-event analyses and its confidence interval using simulated data, resembling a retrospective cohort study of radiation-related leukemia risk after CT examinations in childhood and adolescence. Furthermore, we evaluate how the Firth-corrected estimator reduces the finite-sample bias of the classical estimator. We show that the ERR is overestimated by about 30% for a cohort of about 150,000 individuals, with 42 leukemia cases observed on average. The bias is reduced for higher baseline incidence rates and for higher values of the true ERR. As the number of cases increases, the ERR is approximately unbiased. The Firth correction reduces the bias for all cohort sizes to generally around or under 5%. Epidemiological studies showing an association between radiation exposure from pediatric CT and cancer risk, unless very large, may overestimate the magnitude of the relationship, while there is no evidence of an increased chance for false-positive results. Conducting large studies, perhaps by pooling individual studies to increase the number of cases, should be a priority. If this is not possible, Firth correction should be applied to reduce small-sample bias.

Quantitative Analysis of the Clinical Reasons Influencing the Frequency of Pediatric Head CT Examinations: A Single-Center Observation Study

Epidemiological studies on radiation exposure from pediatric CT scans have attracted attention in terms of radiological protection. These studies have not taken into account the reasons why CT examinations were performed. It is presumed that there are clinical reasons that justify more frequent CT examinations in children. The purpose of this study was to characterize the clinical reasons why relatively high numbers of head CT examinations (NHCT) are frequently performed and to conduct a statistical analysis to determine the factors governing the NHCT. Patient information, the date of examination, and medical conditions for examination data stored on the radiology information system were used to investigate the reasons for undergoing CT examinations. The target facility was National Children's Hospital; data were obtained from March 2002 to April 2017, and the age of the study population was less than 16 years old. Quantitative analysis of the factors associated with frequent examinations was conducted by Poisson regression analysis. Among all patients who had a CT scan, 76.6% had head CT examinations, and 43.4% of children were under 1 year old at the time of the initial examination. There were marked differences in the number of examinations depending on the disease. The average NHCT was higher for children younger than 5 days of age. Among children less than 1 year of age with surgery, there was a marked difference between hydrocephalus, with a mean = 15.5 (95% CI 14.3,16.8), and trauma, with a mean = 8.3 (95% CI 7.2,9.4). In conclusion, this study revealed that NHCT was significantly higher in children who had undergone surgery than in those who had not been to the hospital. The clinical reasons behind patients with higher NHCT should be considered in investigating a causal relationship between CT exposure and brain tumors.

Pediatric computed tomography doses in Germany from 2016 to 2018 based on large-scale data collection

PURPOSE

Accumulating evidence from epidemiological studies that pediatric computed tomography (CT) examinations can be associated with a small but non-zero excess risk for developing leukemia or brain tumor highlights the need to optimize doses of pediatric CT procedures. Mandatory dose reference levels (DRL) can support reduction of collective dose from CT imaging. Regular surveys of applied dose-related parameters are instrumental to decide when technological advances and optimized protocol design allow lower doses without sacrificing image quality. Our aim was to collect dosimetric data to support adapting current DRL to changing clinical practice.

METHOD

Dosimetric data and technical scan parameters from common pediatric CT examinations were retrospectively collected directly from Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS), Dose Management Systems (DMS), and Radiological Information Systems (RIS).

RESULTS

We collected data from 17 institutions on 7746 CT series from the years 2016 to 2018 from examinations of the head, thorax, abdomen, cervical spine, temporal bone, paranasal sinuses and knee in patients below 18 years of age. Most of the age-stratified parameter distributions were lower than distributions from previously-analyzed data from before 2010. Most of the third quartiles were lower than German DRL at the time of the survey.

CONCLUSIONS

Directly interfacing PACS, DMS, and RIS installations allows large-scale data collection but relies on high data-quality at the documentation stage. Data should be validated by expert knowledge or guided questionnaires. Observed clinical practice in pediatric CT imaging suggests lowering some DRL in Germany is reasonable.

Brain cancer after radiation exposure from CT examinations of children and young adults: results from the EPI-CT cohort study

BACKGROUND

The European EPI-CT study aims to quantify cancer risks from CT examinations of children and young adults. Here, we assess the risk of brain cancer.

METHODS

We pooled data from nine European countries for this cohort study. Eligible participants had at least one CT examination before age 22 years documented between 1977 and 2014, had no previous diagnosis of cancer or benign brain tumour, and were alive and cancer-free at least 5 years after the first CT. Participants were identified through the Radiology Information System in 276 hospitals. Participants were linked with national or regional registries of cancer and vital status, and eligible cases were patients with brain cancers according to WHO International Classification of Diseases for Oncology. Gliomas were analysed separately to all brain cancers. Organ doses were reconstructed using historical machine settings and a large sample of CT images. Excess relative risks (ERRs) of brain cancer per 100 mGy of cumulative brain dose were calculated with linear dose-response modelling. The outcome was the first reported diagnosis of brain cancer after an exclusion period of 5 years after the first electronically recorded CT examination.

FINDINGS

We identified 948 174 individuals, of whom 658 752 (69%) were eligible for our study. 368 721 (56%) of 658 752 participants were male and 290 031 (44%) were female. During a median follow-up of 5·6 years (IQR 2·4-10·1), 165 brain cancers occurred, including 121 (73%) gliomas. Mean cumulative brain dose, lagged by 5 years, was 47·4 mGy (SD 60·9) among all individuals and 76·0 mGy (100·1) among people with brain cancer. A significant linear dose-response relationship was observed for all brain cancers (ERR per 100 mGy 1·27 [95% CI 0·51-2·69]) and for gliomas separately (ERR per 100 mGy 1·11 [0·36-2·59]). Results were robust when the start of follow-up was delayed beyond 5 years and when participants with possibly previously unreported cancers were excluded.

INTERPRETATION

The observed significant dose-response relationship between CT-related radiation exposure and brain cancer in this large, multicentre study with individual dose evaluation emphasises careful justification of paediatric CTs and use of doses as low as reasonably possible.

FUNDING

EU FP7; Belgian Cancer Registry; La Ligue contre le Cancer, L'Institut National du Cancer, France; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; Worldwide Cancer Research; Dutch Cancer Society; Research Council of Norway; Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; US National Cancer Institute; UK National Institute for Health Research; Public Health England.

CT Scans and Cancer Risks: A Systematic Review and Dose-response Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is still uncertainty on whether ionizing radiation from CT scans can increase the risks of cancer. This study aimed to identify the association of cumulative ionizing radiation from CT scans with pertaining cancer risks in adults.

METHODS

Five databases were searched from their inception to November 15, 2020. Observational studies reporting cancer risks from CT scans in adults were included. The main outcome included quantified cancer risks as cancer case numbers in exposed/unexposed adult participants with unified converted measures to odds ratio (OR) for relative risk, hazard ratio. Global background radiation (2.4 mSv per year) was used as control for lifetime attribution risk (LAR), with the same period from incubation after exposure until survival to 100 years.

RESULTS

25 studies were included with a sum of 111,649,943 participants (mean age: 45.37 years, 83.4% women), comprising 2,049,943 actual participants from 6 studies with an average follow-up period as 30.1 years (range, 5 to 80 years); 109,600,000 participants from 19 studies using LAR. The cancer risks for adults following CT scans were inordinately increased (LAR adults, OR, 10.00 [95% CI, 5.87 to 17.05]; actual adults, OR, 1.17 [95%CI, 0.89 to 1.55]; combined, OR, 5.89 [95%CI, 3.46 to 10.35]). Moreover, cancer risks elevated with increase of radiation dose (OR, 33.31 [95% CI, 21.33 to 52.02]), and multiple CT scan sites (OR, 14.08 [95% CI, 6.60 to 30.05]). The risk of solid malignancy was higher than leukemia. Notably, there were no significant differences for age, gender, country, continent, study quality and studying time phrases.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on 111.6 million adult participants from 3 continents (Asia, Europe and America), this meta-analysis identifies an inordinately increase in cancer risks from CT scans for adults. Moreover, the cancer risks were positively correlated with radiation dose and CT sites. The meta-analysis highlights the awareness of potential cancer risks of CT scans as well as more reasonable methodology to quantify cancer risks in terms of life expectancy as 100 years for LAR.

PROSPERO TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019133487.

Epidemiological studies of CT scans and cancer risk: the state of the science

20 years ago, 3 manuscripts describing doses and potential cancer risks from CT scans in children raised awareness of a growing public health problem. We reviewed the epidemiological studies that were initiated in response to these concerns that assessed cancer risks from CT scans using medical record linkage. We evaluated the study methodology and findings and provide recommendations for optimal study design for new efforts. We identified 17 eligible studies; 13 with published risk estimates, and 4 in progress. There was wide variability in the study methodology, however, which made comparison of findings challenging. Key differences included whether the study focused on childhood or adulthood exposure, radiosensitive outcomes (e.g. leukemia, brain tumors) or all cancers, the exposure metrics (e.g. organ doses, effective dose or number of CTs) and control for biases (e.g. latency and exclusion periods and confounding by indication). We were able to compare results for the subset of studies that evaluated leukemia or brain tumors. There were eight studies of leukemia risk in relation to red bone marrow (RBM) dose, effective dose or number of CTs; seven reported a positive dose-response, which was statistically significant (p < 0.05) in four studies. Six of the seven studies of brain tumors also found a positive dose-response and in five, this was statistically significant. Mean RBM dose ranged from 6 to 12 mGy and mean brain dose from 18 to 43 mGy. In a meta-analysis of the studies of childhood exposure the summary ERR/100 mGy was 1.78 (95%CI: 0.01-3.53) for leukemia/myelodisplastic syndrome (n = 5 studies) and 0.80 (95%CI: 0.48-1.12) for brain tumors (n = 4 studies) (p-heterogeneity >0.4). Confounding by cancer pre-disposing conditions was unlikely in these five studies of leukemia. The summary risk estimate for brain tumors could be over estimated, however, due to reverse causation. In conclusion, there is growing evidence from epidemiological data that CT scans can cause cancer. The absolute risks to individual patients are, however, likely to be small. Ongoing large multicenter cohorts and future pooling efforts will provide more precise risk quantification.

Comparative analysis of physical doses and biomarker changes in subjects underwent Computed Tomography, Positron Emission Tomography-Computed Tomography, and interventional procedures

Even though the medical uses of ionizing radiation are well-acknowledged globally as vital tools for the improvement of human health, they also symbolize the major man-made sources of radiation exposure to the population. Estimation of absorbed dose and biological changes after radiation-based imaging might help to better understand the effects of low dose radiation. Because of this, we measured the Entrance Surface Dose (ESD) at different anatomical locations using Lithium tetraborate doped with manganese (Li₂B₄O₇: Mn), recorded Dose Length Product (DLP) and Dose Area Product (DAP), analyzed Chromosomal Aberration (CA), Micronucleus (MN), gamma-H2AX (γ-H2AX), and p53^ser15 proteins in the blood lymphocytes of patients (n = 267) underwent Computed Tomography (CT), Positron Emission Tomography-CT (PET/CT), and interventional procedures and healthy volunteers (n = 19). The DLP and effective doses obtained from PET/CT procedures were significantly higher (p < 0.05) when compared to CT. Fluoroscopic time and DAP were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in therapeutic compared to diagnostic interventional procedures. All the anatomical locations registered a significant amount of ESD, the ESD obtained from CT and interventional procedures were significantly (p < 0.05) higher when compared to PET/CT. Fluoroscopic time did not correlate with the ESD (eye, head, thyroid, and shoulder; R² = 0.03). CA frequency after PET/CT was significantly higher (p < 0.001) when compared to CT and interventional procedures. MN frequency was significantly higher in 24-hs (p < 0.001) post-interventional procedure compared to 2-hs. The mean ± SD of mean fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX and p53^ser15 obtained from all subjects underwent PET/CT and interventional procedures did not show a significant difference (p > 0.05) between pre- and post-procedure. However, the relative fluorescence intensity of γ-H2AX and p53^ser15 was >1 in 58.5 % and 65.8 % of subjects respectively. Large inter-individual variation and lack of correlation between physical dose and biomarkers suggest the need for robust dosimetry with a large sample size to understand the health effects of low dose radiation.

Persistent DNA Double-Strand Breaks After Repeated Diagnostic CT Scans in Breast Epithelial Cells and Lymphocytes

DNA double-strand break (DSB) induction and repair have been widely studied in radiation therapy (RT); however little is known about the impact of very low exposures from repeated computed tomography (CT) scans for the efficiency of repair. In our current study, DSB repair and kinetics were investigated in side-by-side comparison of RT treatment (2 Gy) with repeated diagnostic CT scans (≤20 mGy) in human breast epithelial cell lines and lymphoblastoid cells harboring different mutations in known DNA damage repair proteins. Immunocytochemical analysis of well known DSB markers γH2AX and 53BP1, within 48 h after each treatment, revealed highly correlated numbers of foci and similar appearance/disappearance profiles. The levels of γH2AX and 53BP1 foci after CT scans were up to 30% of those occurring 0.5 h after 2 Gy irradiation. The DNA damage repair after diagnostic CT scans was monitored and quantitatively assessed by both γH2AX and 53BP1 foci in different cell types. Subsequent diagnostic CT scans in 6 and/or 12 weeks intervals resulted in elevated background levels of repair foci, more pronounced in cells that were prone to genomic instability due to mutations in known regulators of DNA damage response (DDR). The levels of persistent foci remained enhanced for up to 6 months. This “memory effect” may reflect a radiation-induced long-term response of cells after low-dose x-ray exposure.

Radiation risk of central nervous system tumors in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors, 1958-2009

Radiation exposure is among the few factors known to be associated with risk of central nervous system (CNS) tumors. However, the patterns of radiation risk by histological type, sex or age are unclear. We evaluated radiation risks of first primary glioma, meningioma, schwannoma, and other or not otherwise specified (other/NOS) tumors in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors. Cases diagnosed between 1958 and 2009 were ascertained through population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. To estimate excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy), we fit rate models using Poisson regression methods. There were 285 CNS tumors (67 gliomas, 107 meningiomas, 49 schwannomas, and 64 other/NOS tumors) among 105,444 individuals with radiation dose estimates to the brain contributing 3.1 million person-years of observation. Based on a simple linear model without effect modification, ERR/Gy was 1.67 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.12 to 5.26) for glioma, 1.82 (95% CI: 0.51 to 4.30) for meningioma, 1.45 (95% CI: - 0.01 to 4.97) for schwannoma, and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.57) for all CNS tumors as a group. For each tumor type, the dose-response was consistent with linearity and appeared to be stronger among males than among females, particularly for meningioma (P = 0.045). There was also evidence that the ERR/Gy for schwannoma decreased with attained age (P = 0.002). More than 60 years after the bombings, radiation risks for CNS tumors continue to be elevated. Further follow-up is necessary to characterize the lifetime risks of specific CNS tumors following radiation exposure.

Relevance of Non-Targeted Effects for Radiotherapy and Diagnostic Radiology; A Historical and Conceptual Analysis of Key Players

Non-targeted effects (NTE) such as bystander effects or genomic instability have been known for many years but their significance for radiotherapy or medical diagnostic radiology are far from clear. Central to the issue are reported differences in the response of normal and tumour tissues to signals from directly irradiated cells. This review will discuss possible mechanisms and implications of these different responses and will then discuss possible new therapeutic avenues suggested by the analysis. Finally, the importance of NTE for diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine which stems from the dominance of NTE in the low-dose region of the dose–response curve will be presented. Areas such as second cancer induction and microenvironment plasticity will be discussed.

AutoFoci, an automated high-throughput foci detection approach for analyzing low-dose DNA double-strand break repair

Double-strand breaks (DSBs) are the most lethal DNA damages induced by ionising radiation (IR) and their efficient repair is crucial to limit genomic instability. The cellular DSB response after low IR doses is of particular interest but its examination requires the analysis of high cell numbers. Here, we present an automated DSB quantification method based on the analysis of γH2AX and 53BP1 foci as markers for DSBs. We establish a combination of object properties, combined in the object evaluation parameter (OEP), which correlates with manual object classification. Strikingly, OEP histograms show a bi-modal distribution with two maxima and a minimum in between, which correlates with the manually determined transition between background signals and foci. We used algorithms to detect the minimum, thus separating foci from background signals and automatically assessing DSB levels. To demonstrate the validity of this method, we analyzed over 600.000 cells to verify results of previous studies showing that DSBs induced by low doses are less efficiently repaired compared with DSBs induced by higher doses. Thus, the automated foci counting method, called AutoFoci, provides a valuable tool for high-throughput image analysis of thousands of cells which will prove useful for many biological screening approaches.