Statistical classification of South African seasonal divisions on the basis of daily temperature data

Exploring the risk of heat stress in high school pre-season sports training, Johannesburg, South Africa

There is growing concern over the increased risk of heat stress induced by the changing climate, with increased global temperatures expected to exacerbate conditions. Heat stress in school sports is a critically understudied research area in South Africa (SA). As demonstrated by several studies conducted in the global north, the stress elicited by meteorological conditions on students participating in physical education lessons and after-school sports activities could have serious consequences on their health. This paper represents the first research in the region to investigate the risk of heat stress to school students during physical activity. Meteorological data were collected at a school in Johannesburg between March and July, which encompasses the seasons of late summer, autumn, and winter. These were inputted into four heat stress indices: Humidex, Heat Index, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, and the Universal Thermal Climate Index, together with the measured Wet Bulb Temperature to determine the level of risk of heat stress during physical education lessons and after-school sports activities between March and July. Of the 2700 index scores calculated over this period, 56% indicate some level of heat stress, with almost 6% indicating a high and very high level of risk. Heat stress is calculated to be most likely to occur between 11h00-15h00, and the danger of pre-season training, which takes place in the summer months, is demonstrated by these results. Additionally, this research finds that heat stress is far more likely on artificial surfaces than on natural grass. The findings of this research intimate that school stakeholders should consider the implications of heat stress when considering timetabling and policy-making in the interests of safeguarding their students.

Comparing the financial benefits of different grain production systems in South Africa’s summer rainfall region

There is growing evidence that soil degradation, among other factors, has led to both the decline and constraint of agriculture in southern Africa. Conservation and regenerative agriculture (CA/RA) have been proposed as a grain crop production system that could slow down, halt or even reverse some of these disturbing trends. But the question remains whether it is financially viable. We sought to find an answer to this question by comparing the financial returns of a CA/RA system over a 20-year period to its alternatives, namely conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) production systems. The cumulative free cash flow (CFCF) of the average between the realistic and conservative CA/RA scenarios in year 20 is considerably higher than that of the other systems under investigation. The CFCF for CA/RA in year 20 in Mpumalanga is estimated to be R86 million, compared to -ZAR51 million for CT and about ZAR4 million for NT. That is a net difference between ZAR137 million (compared to CT) and ZAR82 million (compared to NT). In the Maluti area, the CFCF for the CA/RA production system is estimated at ZAR26 million, compared to -ZAR66 million for CT and -ZAR19 million for NT. In the North-West production area, the CFCF for the CA/RA production system is estimated at ZAR35 million, compared to -ZAR9 million for CT and about ZAR21 million for NT. The differences between the CFCF of the CA/RA system and the other systems represent the financial opportunity cost of not converting to the CA/RA system.

Movement patterns of two reintegrated African elephant (Loxodonta africana) herds: transitioning from captivity to free-living

With the escalating challenges in captive elephant management, the study of elephant reintegration emerges as a pivotal area of research, primarily addressing the enhancement of animal welfare. The term 'reintegration' refers to the process of rehabilitating captive elephants to a natural system, allowing them to roam freely without intensive human intervention. There is a relative paucity of research addressing the behavioural adaptations post-reintegration, despite reintegration of over 20 elephants across various fenced reserves in South Africa. Our study centres on two distinct herds of reintegrated African elephants, monitoring their movement patterns in two South African reserves over a 57-month period post-release. The primary goal of the study was to establish whether the flexibility and adaptability of movement behaviour of reintegrated elephants can be considered as one of the indicators of determining the success of such an operation. The second aim of our study was to investigate if the reintegrated elephants demonstrated an adaptability to their environment through their hourly, daily, and seasonal ranging patterns after a period of free roaming that exceeded 4 years. Our findings indicated that reintegrated elephants, much like their wild counterparts (movement based on literature), displayed notable seasonal and diurnal variations in key movement parameters, such as utilisation distribution areas and reserve utilization. These patterns changed over time, reflecting an adaptive shift in movement patterns after several years of free roaming. Notably, the trajectory of changes in movement parameters varied between herds, indicating unique adaptation responses, likely resulting from differences in the reintegration process (familiarity of reserve, season of release, presence of wild elephants). Although our study is constrained by the limited number of reintegrated herds available for analysis, it underscores the potential of captive elephants to successfully adapt to a free-living environment, emphasising the promising implications of reintegration initiatives.

Molecular and serological prevalence of corridor disease (buffalo associated Theileria parva infection) in cattle populations at the livestock/game interface of KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa

Theileria parva are intracellular protozoal parasites responsible for three disease syndromes in cattle, namely East Coast fever (ECF), Corridor disease (CD) and Zimbabwean theileriosis. The increase in reports of CD outbreaks in recent years has raised questions about the probability of adaptation of buffalo-derived T. parva strains in cattle herds adjacent to game reserves. A cross-sectional study was conducted from March 2016 to December 2018 to investigate the extent of occurrence of T. parva infections in cattle in the CD-controlled area of KwaZulu-Natal Province. Blood samples were collected from 1137 cattle from 14 herds and analysed by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) to determine the prevalence of T. parva. A total of 484 samples from 4 of the 14 herds were further tested on qPCR for the presence of T. taurotragi infections. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics and a chi-square test was used to assess association between variables. The overall prevalence of T. parva was 1.3% (95%CI:1-2%) and 19.9% (95%CI:17-22%) on qPCR and IFAT, respectively. The qPCR positive samples were detected in March and May while IFAT positive samples were detected in all seasons sampled, with higher numbers during summer months. The Pearson Chi-squared test showed that T. parva prevalence rates based on both qPCR and IFAT were positively associated with herds with previous history of CD outbreaks (χ2 = 8.594, p = 0.003; χ2 = 69.513, p < 0.001, respectively). The overall prevalence of T. taurotragi was 39.4% (95% CI: 35-44%) with the herd-level prevalence ranging between 35.0% and 43.4%. Possible cross-reaction of T. parva IFAT to T. taurotragi was detected on few samples, however, there was no significant association between T. taurotragi infections and IFAT positivity (χ2 = 0.829, p = 0.363). Results from this study demonstrated the extent of occurrence of subclinical carriers and the level of exposure to T. parva infections in cattle populations at a livestock/game interface area of KwaZulu-Natal Province. The molecular and seroprevalence rates were low when compared with other areas where cattle-adapted T. parva infections are endemic. The adaptation of buffalo-derived T. parva in cattle population resulting in cattle-cattle transmissions seem to be unlikely under the current epidemiological state.

A 43-year of human thermal comfort in Central Africa

In this study, the human thermal stress was quantified across Central Africa (C.A.) using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Although many of the documented studies on the use of UTCI in relation to human health are currently restricted to countries in the northern hemisphere, this contribution constitutes a prerequisite of information for future research in the region. To mitigate the problem of lack of field data in the Central African sub-region, we downloaded UTCI data via the ERA5 reanalysis portal. Based on this data source, we have explored the spatiotemporal characteristics and the resulting behaviour at annual, seasonal and monthly scales in Central Africa over the period 1982 to 2022. On these different scales, 4 of the 10 UTCI thermal stress categories were experienced, ranging from mild cold stress to strong heat stress. Spatially, cases of moderate heat stress were the most widespread, with cases of strong intensity occurring in a few isolated areas in the centre, east and west. Slight cold stress is confined to the south-east domain, particularly in autumn and winter. From 1982 to 2022, heat stress has increased significantly in the region, with peaks observed in January and October; very few areas have been spared the phenomenon of thermal stress. However, a slight decreasing trend was noticed along coastal regions and the south of C.A. Thereafter, the trend values showed the degree of C.A. vulnerability to global warming, and thus appropriate measures should be taken in relation to outdoor occupations and its impacts on the population of this region.

Measurement of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater: A case study of the Northern Cape, South Africa

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has resulted in the infection and death of many South Africans. This is in part due to a lack of testing facilities, equipment, and staff in many areas, particularly those with low population densities. The study focused on the infection dynamics of the virus in the Northern Cape province in all five municipalities investigating wastewater-based surveillance for the province. Reverse transcription was used to identify the virus, and SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in a batch of wastewater from four of the five areas sampled and was collected in the months that fall within the third wave of COVID as well as the winter season (May-July). The detection of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with infection statistics as well as the seasonality of the virus. This research showed a positive result in using wastewater epidemiology to track the spread of the virus but also highlighted the need for improved methodology when it comes to this surveillance. This includes sampling smaller areas and frequent sampling in multiple areas to show clear patterns within smaller, sparsely populated communities.

Succession and determinants of the early life nasopharyngeal microbiota in a South African birth cohort

BACKGROUND

Bacteria colonizing the nasopharynx play a key role as gatekeepers of respiratory health. Yet, dynamics of early life nasopharyngeal (NP) bacterial profiles remain understudied in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where children have a high prevalence of risk factors for lower respiratory tract infection. We investigated longitudinal changes in NP bacterial profiles, and associated exposures, among healthy infants from low-income households in South Africa.

METHODS

We used short fragment (V4 region) 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to characterize NP bacterial profiles from 103 infants in a South African birth cohort, at monthly intervals from birth through the first 12 months of life and six monthly thereafter until 30 months.

RESULTS

Corynebacterium and Staphylococcus were dominant colonizers at 1 month of life; however, these were rapidly replaced by Moraxella- or Haemophilus-dominated profiles by 4 months. This succession was almost universal and largely independent of a broad range of exposures. Warm weather (summer), lower gestational age, maternal smoking, no day-care attendance, antibiotic exposure, or low height-for-age z score at 12 months were associated with higher alpha and beta diversity. Summer was also associated with higher relative abundances of Staphylococcus, Streptococcus, Neisseria, or anaerobic gram-negative bacteria, whilst spring and winter were associated with higher relative abundances of Haemophilus or Corynebacterium, respectively. Maternal smoking was associated with higher relative abundances of Porphyromonas. Antibiotic therapy (or isoniazid prophylaxis for tuberculosis) was associated with higher relative abundance of anerobic taxa (Porphyromonas, Fusobacterium, and Prevotella) and with lower relative abundances of health associated-taxa Corynebacterium and Dolosigranulum. HIV-exposure was associated with higher relative abundances of Klebsiella or Veillonella and lower relative abundances of an unclassified genus within the family Lachnospiraceae.

CONCLUSIONS

In this intensively sampled cohort, there was rapid and predictable replacement of early profiles dominated by health-associated Corynebacterium and Dolosigranulum with those dominated by Moraxella and Haemophilus, independent of exposures. Season and antibiotic exposure were key determinants of NP bacterial profiles. Understudied but highly prevalent exposures prevalent in LMICs, including maternal smoking and HIV-exposure, were associated with NP bacterial profiles. Video Abstract.

Defining the South African Acute Respiratory Infectious Disease Season

The acute respiratory infectious disease season, or colloquially the "flu season", is defined as the annually recurring period characterized by the prevalence of an outbreak of acute respiratory infectious diseases. It has been widely agreed that this season spans the winter period globally, but the precise timing or intensity of the season onset in South Africa is not well defined. This limits the efficacy of the public health sector to vaccinate for influenza timeously and for health facilities to synchronize efficiently for an increase in cases. This study explores the statistical intensity thresholds in defining this season to determine the start and finish date of the acute respiratory infectious disease season in South Africa. Two sets of data were utilized: public-sector hospitalization data that included laboratory-tested RSV and influenza cases and private-sector medical insurance claims under ICD 10 codes J111, J118, J110, and J00. Using the intensity threshold methodology proposed by the US CDC in 2017, various thresholds were tested for alignment with the nineteen-week flu season as proposed by the South African NICD. This resulted in varying thresholds for each province. The respiratory disease season commences in May and ends in September. These findings were seen in hospitalization cases and medical insurance claim cases, particularly with influenza-positive cases in Baragwanath hospital for the year 2019. These statistically determined intensity thresholds and timing of the acute respiratory infectious disease season allow for improved surveillance and preparedness among the public and private healthcare.

Sentinel-Based Adaptation of the Local Climate Zones Framework to a South African Context

The LCZ framework has become a widely applied approach to study urban climate. The standard LCZ typology is highly specific when applied to western urban areas but generic in some African cities. We tested the generic nature of the standard typology by taking a two-part approach. First, we applied a single-source WUDAPT-based training input across three urban areas that represent a gradient in South African urbanization (Cape Town, Thohoyandou and East London). Second, we applied a local customized training that accounts for the unique characteristics of the specific area. The LCZ classification was completed using a random forest classifier on a subset of single (SI) and multitemporal (MT) Sentinel 2 imagery. The results show an increase in overall classification accuracy between 17 and 30% for the locally calibrated over the generic standard LCZ framework. The spring season is the best classified of the single-date imagery with the accuracies 7% higher than the least classified season. The multi-date classification accuracy is 13% higher than spring but only 9% higher when a neighborhood function (NF) is applied. For acceptable performance of the LCZ classifier in an African context, the training must be local and customized to the uniqueness of that specific area.