A nomogram for predicting late radiation-induced xerostomia among locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma in intensity modulated radiation therapy era

Evaluation of machine learning models for predicting xerostomia in adults with head and neck cancer during proton and heavy ion radiotherapy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Few studies have examined the factors associated with xerostomia during proton and carbon ion radiotherapy for head and neck cancer (HNC), which are reported to have fewer toxic effects compared to traditional photon-based radiotherapy. This study aims to evaluate the performance of machine learning approaches in predicting grade 2 + xerostomia in adults with HNC receiving proton and carbon ion radiotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study involving 1,769 adults with HNC who completed proton or carbon ion radiotherapy was conducted. Xerostomia was graded using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group criteria. Eight machine learning models with different combinations sampling methods and class weights were compared to identify the model with the highest balanced accuracy.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 47.8 years (range 18-80), with 33.5 % female. The average total radiation dose was 71.0 GyE (SD = 5.7). Grade 1 xerostomia was recorded in 572 patients (32.3 %) and grade 2 in 103 patients (5.8 %). No cases of grade 3 or higher xerostomia were reported. A support vector machine with a linear kernel, a 1:2 positive-to-negative class weight, and SMOTE oversampling achieved the highest balanced accuracy (0.66) and AUC-ROC (0.69) for predicting grade 2 xerostomia, outperforming the logistic regression model (balanced accuracy:0.50, AUC-ROC. 0.67).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of grade 2 radiation-induced xerostomia during proton and carbon ion radiotherapy was low in adults with HNC, posing challenges for accurate prediction. Further research is needed to develop improved methods for predicting xerostomia during proton and carbon ion radiotherapy.

Establishment of nomogram prediction model of contrast-enhanced ultrasound and Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI for vessels encapsulating tumor clusters pattern of hepatocellular carcinoma

To establish clinical prediction models of vessels encapsulating tumor clusters (VETC) pattern using preoperative contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid magnetic resonance imaging (EOB-MRI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 111 resected HCC lesions from 101 patients were included. Preoperative imaging features of CEUS and EOB-MRI, postoperative recurrence, and survival information were collected from medical records. The best subset regression and multivariable Cox regression were used to select variables to establish the prediction model. The VETC-positive group had a statistically lower survival rate than the VETC-negative group. The selected variables were peritumoral enhancement in the arterial phase (AP), hepatobiliary phase (HBP) on EOB-MRI, intratumoral branching enhancement in the AP of CEUS, intratumoral hypoenhancement in the portal phase of CEUS, incomplete capsule, and tumor size. A nomogram was developed. High and low nomogram scores with a cutoff value of 168 points showed different recurrence-free survival rates and overall survival rates. The area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy were 0.804 and 0.820, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Decision curve analysis showed a good clinical net benefit (threshold probability > 5%), while the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded excellent calibration (P = 0.6759). The AUC of the nomogram model combining EOB-MRI and CEUS was higher than that of the models with EOB-MRI factors only (0.767) and CEUS factors only (0.7). The nomogram verified by bootstrapping showed AUC and calibration curves similar to those of the nomogram model. The Prediction model based on CEUS and EOB-MRI is effective for preoperative noninvasive diagnosis of VETC.

Prediction of Radiation-Induced Parotid Gland-Related Xerostomia in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer: Regeneration-Weighted Dose

PURPOSE

Despite improvements to treatment, patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) still experience radiation-induced xerostomia due to salivary gland damage. The stem cells of the parotid gland (PG), concentrated in the gland's main ducts (stem cell rich [SCR] region), play a critical role in the PG's response to radiation. Treatment optimization requires a dose metric that properly accounts for the relative contributions of dose to this SCR region and the PG's remainder (non-SCR region) to the risk of xerostomia in normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for xerostomia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Treatment and toxicity data of 1013 prospectively followed patients with HNC treated with definitive radiation therapy (RT) were used. The regeneration-weighted dose, enabling accounting for the hypothesized different effects of dose to the SCR and non-SCR region on the risk of xerostomia, was defined as Dreg PG = Dmean SCR region + r × Dmean non-SCR region, where Dreg is the regeneration-weighted dose, Dmean is the mean dose, and r is the weighting factor. Considering the different volumes of these regions, r > 3.6 in Dreg PG demonstrates an enhanced effect of the SCR region. The most predictive value of r was estimated in 102 patients of a previously published trial testing stem cell sparing RT. For each endpoint, Dreg PG, dose to other organs, and clinical factors were used to develop NTCP models using multivariable logistic regression analysis in 663 patients. The models were validated in 350 patients.

RESULTS

Dose to the contralateral PG was associated with daytime, eating-related, and physician-rated grade ≥2 xerostomia. Consequently, r was estimated and found to be smaller than 3.6 for most PG function-related endpoints. Therefore, the contribution of Dmean SCR region to the risk of xerostomia was larger than predicted by Dmean PG. Other frequently selected predictors were pretreatment xerostomia and Dmean oral cavity. The validation showed good discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Tools for clinical implementation of stem cell sparing RT were developed: regeneration-weighted dose to the parotid gland that accounted for regional differences in radiosensitivity within the gland and NTCP models that included this new dose metric and other prognostic factors.

Neural network and spline-based regression for the prediction of salivary hypofunction in patients undergoing radiation therapy

BACKGROUND

This study leverages a large retrospective cohort of head and neck cancer patients in order to develop machine learning models to predict radiation induced hyposalivation from dose-volume histograms of the parotid glands.

METHODS

The pre and post-radiotherapy salivary flow rates of 510 head and neck cancer patients were used to fit three predictive models of salivary hypofunction, (1) the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, (2) a spline-based model, (3) a neural network. A fourth LKB-type model using literature reported parameter values was included for reference. Predictive performance was evaluated using a cut-off dependent AUC analysis.

RESULTS

The neural network model dominated the LKB models demonstrating better predictive performance at every cutoff with AUCs ranging from 0.75 to 0.83 depending on the cutoff selected. The spline-based model nearly dominated the LKB models with the fitted LKB model only performing better at the 0.55 cutoff. The AUCs for the spline model ranged from 0.75 to 0.84 depending on the cutoff chosen. The LKB models had the lowest predictive ability with AUCs ranging from 0.70 to 0.80 (fitted) and 0.67 to 0.77 (literature reported).

CONCLUSION

Our neural network model showed improved performance over the LKB and alternative machine learning approaches and provided clinically useful predictions of salivary hypofunction without relying on summary measures.

Development and validation of a nomogram for prediction of recovery from moderate-severe xerostomia post-radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

PURPOSE

Aim to create and validate a comprehensive nomogram capable of accurately predicting the transition from moderate-severe to normal-mild xerostomia post-radiotherapy (postRT) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Materials and methods We constructed and internally verified a prediction model using a primary cohort comprising 223 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with NPC from February 2016 to December 2019. LASSO regression model was used to identify the clinical factors and relevant variables (the pre-radiotherapy (XQ-preRT) and immediate post-radiotherapy (XQ-postRT) xerostomia questionnaire scores, as well as the mean dose (D_mean) delivered to the parotid gland (PG), submandibular gland (SMG), sublingual gland (SLG), tubarial gland (TG), and oral cavity). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction model, which was presented as a nomogram. The models' performance with regard to calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness was evaluated. The external validation cohort comprised 78 patients. Results Due to better discrimination and calibration in the training cohort, age, gender, XQ-postRT, and D_mean of PG, SMG, and TG were included in the individualized prediction model (C-index of 0.741 (95% CI:0.717 to 0.765). Verification of the nomogram's performance in internal and external validation cohorts revealed good discrimination (C-index of 0.729 (0.692 to 0.766) and 0.736 (0.702 to 0.770), respectively) and calibration. Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful. The 12-month and 24-month moderate-severe xerostomia rate was statistically lower in the SMG-spared arm (28.4% (0.230 to 35.2) and 5.2% (0.029 to 0.093), respectively) than that in SMG-unspared arm (56.8% (0.474 to 0.672) and 12.5% (0.070 to 0.223), respectively), with an HR of 1.84 (95%CI: 1.412 to 2.397, p= 0.000). The difference in restricted mean survival time for remaining moderate-severe xerostomia between the two arms at 24 months was 5.757 months (95% CI, 3.863 to 7.651; p=0.000). Conclusion The developed nomogram, incorporating age, gender, XQ-postRT, and D_mean to PG, SMG, and TG, can be used for predicting recovery from moderate-severe xerostomia post-radiotherapy in NPC patients. Sparing SMG is highly important for the patient's recovery.

Contouring the accessory parotid gland and major parotid glands as a single organ at risk during nasopharyngeal carcinoma radiotherapy

Background and purpose

No research currently exists on the role of the accessory parotid gland (APG) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We thereby aimed to assess the effects of APG on the dosimetry of the parotid glands (PGs) during NPC radiotherapy and evaluate its predictive value for late xerostomia.

Material and methods

The clinical data of 32 NPC patients with radiological evidence of the APG treated at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital between November 2020 and February 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Clinically approved treatment plans consisted of only the PGs as an organ at risk (OAR) (Plan1), while Plan2 was designed by considering the APG as a single organ at risk (OAR). The APG on Plan1 was delineated, and dose–volume parameters of the PGs alone (PG-only) and of the combined structure (PG+APG) were analyzed in both plans. The association of such dosimetric parameters in Plan1 with xerostomia at 6–9 months post-radiotherapy was further explored.

Results

Fifty APGs were found, with a mean volume of 3.3 ± 0.2 ml. Significant differences were found in all dosimetric parameters between Plan1 and Plan2. The mean dose and percentage of OAR volumes receiving more than 30 Gy significantly reduced in Plan1 itself (PG-only vs. PG+APG, 39.55 ± 0.83 Gy vs. 37.71 ± 0.75 Gy, and 62.00 ± 2.00% vs. 57.41 ± 1.56%, respectively; p < 001) and reduced further in Plan2 (PG+APG, 36.40 ± 0.74 Gy, and 55.54 ± 1.61%, respectively; p < 0.001). Three additional patients met the dose constraint in Plan1, which increased to seven in Plan2. With APG included, the predictive power of the dosimetric parameters for xerostomia tended to improve, although no significant differences were observed.

Conclusion

APG is anatomically similar to the PGs. Our findings suggest the potential benefits of treating the APG and PGs as a single OAR during radiotherapy (RT) of NPC by improving PG sparing.

A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation

Background

The counts of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) in predicting the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a controversial issue. We conducted a retrospective study to develop an ELNs-based model to individualize ESCC prognosis.

Methods

Patients with ESCC from the SEER database and our center were strictly screened. The optimal threshold value was determine by the X-tile software. A prognostic model for ESCC patients was developed and validated with R. The model’s efficacy was evaluated by C-index, ROC curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

3,629 cases and 286 cases were screened from the SEER database and our center, respectively. The optimal cut-off value of ELNs was 10. Based on this, we constructed a model with a favorable C-index (training group: 0.708; external group 1: 0.687; external group 2: 0.652). The model performance evaluated with ROC curve is still reliable among the groups. 1-year AUC for nomogram in three groups (i.e., 0.753, 0.761, and 0.686) were superior to that of the TNM stage (P < 0.05). Similarly, the 3-year AUC and the 5-year AUC results for the model were also higher than that of the 8th TNM stage. By contrast, DCA showed the benefit of this model was better in the same follow-up period.

Conclusion

More than 10 ELNs are helpful to evaluate the survival of ESCC patients. Based on this, an improved model for predicting the prognosis of ESCC patients was proposed.

A prediction model for xerostomia in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients receiving radical radiotherapy

Background

This study was to evaluate the predictors of xerostomia and Grade 3 xerostomia in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving radical radiotherapy and establish prediction models for xerostomia and Grade 3 xerostomia based on the predictors.

Methods

Totally, 365 patients with locoregionally advanced NPC who underwent radical radiotherapy were randomly divided into the training set (n = 255) and the testing set (n = 110) at a ratio of 7:3. All variables were included in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to screen out the potential predictors for xerostomia as well as the Grade 3 xerostomia in locoregionally advanced NPC patients receiving radical radiotherapy. The random forest (RF), a decision tree classifier (DTC), and extreme-gradient boosting (XGB) models were constructed. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy were analyzed to evaluate the predictive performance of the models.

Results

In the RF model for predicting xerostomia, the sensitivity was 1.000 (95%CI 1.000–1.000), the PPV was 0.990 (95%CI 0.975–1.000), the NPV was 1.000 (95%CI 1.000–1.000), the AUC was 0.999 (95%CI 0.997–1.000) and the accuracy was 0.992 (95%CI 0.981–1.000) in the training set. The sensitivity was 0.933 (95%CI 0.880–0.985), the PPV was 0.933 (95%CI 0.880–0.985), and the AUC was 0.915 (95%CI 0.860–0.970) in the testing set. Hypertension, age, total radiotherapy dose, dose at 50% of the left parotid volume, mean dose to right parotid gland, mean dose to oral cavity, and course of induction chemotherapy were important variables associated with the risk of xerostomia in locoregionally advanced NPC patients receiving radical radiotherapy. The AUC of DTC model for predicting xerostomia was 0.769 (95%CI 0.666–0.872) in the testing set. The AUC of the XGB model for predicting xerostomia was 0.834 (0.753–0.916) in the testing set. The RF model showed the good predictive ability with the AUC of 0.986 (95%CI 0.972–1.000) in the training set, and 0.766 (95%CI 0.626–0.905) in the testing set for identifying patients who at high risk of Grade 3 xerostomia in those with high risk of xerostomia.

Conclusions

An RF model for predicting xerostomia in locoregionally advanced NPC patients receiving radical radiotherapy and an RF model for predicting Grade 3 xerostomia in those with high risk of xerostomia showed good predictive ability.