A prognostic nomogram for overall survival after neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective analysis

Online tools to predict individualised survival for primary oesophageal cancer patients with and without pathological complete response after neoadjuvant therapy followed by oesophagectomy: development and external validation of two independent nomograms

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate robust predictive models for patients with oesophageal cancer who achieved a pathological complete response (pCR) and those who did not (non-pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy and oesophagectomy.

DESIGN

Clinicopathological data of 6517 primary oesophageal cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy and oesophagectomy were obtained from the National Cancer Database for the training cohort. An independent cohort of 444 Chinese patients served as the validation set. Two distinct multivariable Cox models of overall survival (OS) were constructed for pCR and non-pCR patients, respectively, and were presented using web-based dynamic nomograms (graphical representation of predicted OS based on the clinical characteristics that a patient could input into the website). The calibration plot, concordance index and decision curve analysis were employed to assess calibration, discrimination and clinical usefulness of the predictive models.

RESULTS

In total, 13 and 15 variables were used to predict OS for pCR and non-pCR patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy followed by oesophagectomy, respectively. Key predictors included demographic characteristics, pretreatment clinical stage, surgical approach, pathological information and postoperative treatments. The predictive models for pCR and non-pCR patients demonstrated good calibration and clinical utility, with acceptable discrimination that surpassed that of the current tumour, node, metastases staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

The web-based dynamic nomograms for pCR (https://predict-survival.shinyapps.io/pCR-eso/) and non-pCR patients (https://predict-survival.shinyapps.io/non-pCR-eso/) developed in this study can facilitate the calculation of OS probability for individual patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy and radical oesophagectomy, aiding clinicians and patients in making personalised treatment decisions.

A Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Locally Advanced and Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Reanalysis of Data From the NEOCRTEC5010 Trial

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate disease-free survival (DFS) as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients with locally advanced and resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We re-analyzed patient data from the NEOCRTEC5010 randomized controlled trial (N = 451 patients) to compare their OS with that of an age- and sex-matched cohort from the general population of China. We used expected survival and the standardized mortality ratio, respectively, in our analysis of data collected from a neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (NCRT) plus surgery group and a surgery-only group. Published data from 6 randomized controlled trials and 20 retrospective studies were used to examine the correlation between DFS and OS at the trial level.

RESULTS

The annual hazard rate of disease progression decreased to 4.9% and 8.1% within 3 years in the NCRT and surgery groups, respectively. Patients who were disease-free at 36 months had a 5-year OS of 93.9% (95% CI, 89.7%-98.4%) in the NCRT group with a standardized mortality ratio of 1.1 (95% CI, 0.7-1.8; P = .5639). In contrast, the 5-year OS was only 12.9% (95% CI, 7.3%-22.6%) for patients in the NCRT group who exhibited disease progression within 36 months. At the trial level, DFS and OS were correlated with treatment effect (R2 = 0.605).

CONCLUSIONS

Disease-free status at 36 months is a valid surrogate endpoint for 5-year OS in patients with locally advanced and resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Patients who were disease-free at 36 months showed a favorable OS, which was indistinguishable from that of the age- and sex-matched comparison group from the general population; otherwise, their 5-year OS was extremely poor.

Prognostic impact of lymph node harvest for patients with node-negative esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a large-scale multicenter study

Background

We examined the association between the number of resected lymph nodes and survival to determine the optimal lymphadenectomy for thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with negative lymph node.

Methods

We included 1,836 patients from Chinese three high-volumed hospitals with corresponding clinicopathological characters such as gender, age, tumor location, tumor grade and TNM stage of patients. The median follow-up of included patients was 45.7 months (range, 1.03-117.3 months). X-Tile plot was used to identify the lowest number of lymphadenectomy. The multivariate model's construction was in use of parameters with clinical significance for survival and a nomogram based on clinical variable with P<0.05 in Cox regression analysis. Both two models were validated using a cohort extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries database between 1975 and 2016 (n=951).

Results

More lymphadenectomy numbers were significantly associated with better survival in patients both in training cohort [hazard ratio (HR) =0.980; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.971-0.988; P<0.001] and validation cohort (HR =0.980; 95% CI: 0.968-0.991; P=0.001). Cut-off point analysis determined the lowest number of 9 for thoracic ESCC patients in N0 stage through training cohort (C-index: 0.623; sensitivity: 80.7%; 1 - specificity: 72.5%) when compared with 10 in validation cohort (C-index: 0.643; sensitivity: 78.2%; 1 - specificity: 63.0%). The cut-off points of 9 were examined in training cohort and validated in the divided cohort from validation cohort (all P<0.05). Meanwhile, nomograms for both cohorts were constructed and the calibration curves for both cohorts agreed well with the actual observations in terms of predicting 3- and 5-year survival, respectively.

Conclusions

Larger number for lymphadenectomy was associated with better survival in thoracic ESCC patients in N0 stage. Nine was what we got as the lowest number for lymphadenectomy in pN0 ESCC patients through this study, and our result should be confirmed further.

Prognostic Factors and Prediction of Survival for Patients with Brain Metastases of Lung Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The study aimed to identify risk factors associated with overall survival (OS) of patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LACA) with brain metastasis and developed a prognostic tool (nomogram) for these patients.

METHODS

LACA patients with brain metastases between 2010 and 2013 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox regression model were used to assess the prognostic effect of variables on survival rate. A nomogram was developed to predict 3-, 6- and 9-month OS rates.

RESULTS

2,631 LACA patients with brain metastases were studied. A nomogram was developed by using variables that affected OS and was validated by internal bootstrap resampling, which revealed that the nomogram had satisfactory discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram was able to predict 3-, 6- and 9-month OS for patients with LACA and brain metastases.

A Modified ypTNM Staging System-Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Predicting the Overall Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients Received Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

Purpose

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is now widely used in gastric cancer patients. However, the current 8th ypTNM staging system is developed based on patients with less extensive lymph node dissection and the predictive value is relatively limited. In this study, we aim to develop and validate a nomogram that predicts overall survival in gastric cancer patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Patients and Methods

From January, 2007 to December, 2014, 471 patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy at our center were enrolled in the study. Based on the Cox proportional hazard model, a nomogram was developed from them and then an external validation was conducted on a cohort of 239 patients from another cancer center.

Results

The overall survival (OS) rates of 1 year and 3 years were 90.0% and 64.1%, respectively. Body mass index category, tumor location, T stage and N stage were independent prognostic factors for the survival outcome. The C-index of the model was 0.74 in the development cohort and 0.69 in the validation cohort. Our nomogram also showed good calibration in both cohorts.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict the 1- and 3-year OS of patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radical gastrectomy with D2 lymph node dissection. This nomogram predicts survival more accurately than the AJCC TNM staging system, which is the current golden standard.

Conditional survival after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery for oesophageal cancer

Background

Conditional survival accounts for the time already survived after surgery and may be of additional informative value. The aim was to assess conditional survival in patients with oesophageal cancer and to create a nomogram predicting the conditional probability of survival after oesophagectomy.

Methods

This retrospective study included consecutive patients with oesophageal cancer who received neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by oesophagectomy between January 2004 and 2019. Conditional survival was defined as the probability of surviving y years after already surviving for x years. The formula used for conditional survival (CS) was: CS_(x|y) = S_(x + y)/S_(x), where S_(x) represents overall survival at x years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of overall survival. A nomogram was constructed to predict 5‐year survival directly after surgery and given survival for 1, 2, 3 and 4 years after surgery.

Results

Some 660 patients were included. Median overall survival was 44·4 (95 per cent c.i. 37·0 to 51·8) months. The probability of achieving 5‐year overall survival after resection increased from 45 per cent directly after surgery to 54, 65, 79 and 88 per cent given 1, 2, 3 and 4 years already survived respectively. Cardiac co‐morbidity, cN category, ypT category, ypN category, chyle leakage and pulmonary complications were independent predictors of survival. The nomogram predicted 5‐year survival using these predictors and number of years already survived.

Conclusion

The probability of achieving 5‐year overall survival after oesophagectomy for cancer increases with each additional year survived. The proposed nomogram predicts survival in patients after oesophagectomy, taking the years already survived into account.

Prelacrimal approach for nasolacrimal duct excision in the management of lacrimal system tumours

Purpose: To report a case of a lacrimal sac tumour and describe a prelacrimal approach to the maxillary sinus to excise the nasolacrimal duct in its management. To our knowledge, this approach has not been adapted to remove the nasolacrimal duct for the management of pathological processes involving the nasolacrimal system. Methods: A 58-year-old female patient presented with a 6-month history of epiphora. A lacrimal sac mass was identified, and a biopsy revealed squamous cell carcinoma. Surgical excision was performed via a combined external and endoscopic prelacrimal approach. Results: A prelacrimal approach to the maxillary sinus to excise the nasolacrimal duct in combination with an external approach facilitated an en-bloc excision of the nasolacrimal apparatus. This allowed preservation on the entire inferior turbinate following reconstitution of the lateral nasal wall at the completion of the procedure. Conclusion: The endoscopic endonasal prelacrimal approach to the maxillary sinus is a useful method to approach and excise the nasolacrimal duct in the management of nasolacrimal pathology.

Clinical significance of tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 in middle and lower thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

High expression and role of tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (TNFR2) in cancer progression and prognosis has been reported in several types of tumors. However, its role in esophageal carcinoma (EC) remains unknown. In the present study, TNFR2 expression in middle and lower thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) was detected using immunohistochemistry (IHC). Chi-square test revealed that TNFR2 was positively correlated with invasion depth, advanced clinical stage and low differentiation degree. Furthermore, survival analysis revealed that TNFR2 was positively correlated with poor overall survival (OS). Moreover, univariate COX regression analysis revealed that clinical stage, lymph node involvement, and invasion depth can affect the OS of ESCC patients, while multivariate COX regression analysis revealed that lymph node involvement and invasion depth can affect the OS of ESCC patients. In middle thoracic ESCC patients, TNFR2 was positively correlated with invasion depth, advanced clinical stage and poor OS. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate COX regression analysis both revealed that clinical stage, lymph node involvement, and invasion depth can affect OS. In lower thoracic ESCC patients, TNFR2 was positively correlated with low differentiation degree. Furthermore, the positive correlation of TNFR2 with poor OS did not reach statistical significance. In addition, univariate COX regression analysis revealed that only lymph node involvement could affect OS. All the results suggest that TNFR2 can play an important role in the progression and poor prognosis of ESCC patients. Moreover, the role of TNFR2 in the prognosis of middle thoracic ESCC patients was earlier and stronger than in lower thoracic ESCC patients.

Survival prediction tools for esophageal and gastroesophageal junction cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Clinical, pathological, and molecular information combined with cancer stage in prognostication algorithms can offer more personalized estimates of survival, which might guide treatment choices. Our aim was to evaluate the quality of prognostication tools in esophageal cancer.

METHODS

We systematically searched MedLine and Embase from 2005 to 2017 for studies reporting development or validation of models predicting long-term survival in esophageal cancer. We evaluated tools using the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies guidelines and the American Joint Committee on Cancer acceptance criteria for risk models.

RESULTS

We identified 16 prognostication tools for patients treated with curative intent and 1 for patients with metastatic disease. These tools frequently excluded adenocarcinoma, contained outdated data, and were developed with a limited sample size. Nine tools were developed in China for squamous cell cancer, and 11 used data on patients diagnosed before 2010. Most tools excluded key prognostic factors such as age and sex. Tumor stage and grade were the most commonly, but not universally, included factors. Twelve tools were designed to predict overall survival; 5 predicted cancer-specific survival. Bootstrap internal validation was performed for most tools; c-statistics ranged from 0.63 to 0.77 and graphically evaluated calibration was "good." Five tools were externally validated; c-statistics ranged from 0.70 to 0.77.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing tools cannot be confidently used for esophageal cancer prognostication in current clinical practice. Better-quality tools might help to more individually and accurately estimate disease course, select further treatments, and risk-stratify for future clinical trials.