Understanding the malignant potential of gastric metaplasia of the oesophagus and its relevance to Barrett's oesophagus surveillance: individual-level data analysis

OBJECTIVE

Whether gastric metaplasia (GM) of the oesophagus should be considered as Barrett's oesophagus (BO) is controversial. Given concern intestinal metaplasia (IM) may be missed due to sampling, the UK guidelines include GM as a type of BO. Here, we investigated whether the risk of misdiagnosis and the malignant potential of GM warrant its place in the UK surveillance.

DESIGN

We performed a thorough pathology and endoscopy review to follow clinical outcomes in a novel UK cohort of 244 patients, covering 1854 person years of follow-up. We complemented this with a comparative genomic analysis of 160 GM and IM specimens, focused on early molecular hallmarks of BO and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC).

RESULTS

We found that 58 of 77 short-segment (<3 cm) GM (SS-GM) cases (75%) continued to be observed as GM-only across a median of 4.4 years of follow-up. We observed that disease progression in GM-only cases and GM+IM cases (cases with reported GM on some occasions, IM on others) was significantly lower than in the IM-only cases (Kaplan-Meier, p=0.03). Genomic analysis revealed that the mutation burden in GM is significantly lower than in IM (p<0.01). Moreover, GM does not bear the mutational hallmarks of OAC, with an absence of associated signatures and driver gene mutations. Finally, we established that GM found adjacent to OAC is evolutionarily distant from cancer.

CONCLUSION

SS-GM is a distinct entity from SS-IM and the malignant potential of GM is lower than IM. It is questionable whether SS-GM warrants inclusion in BO surveillance.

Online tools to predict individualised survival for primary oesophageal cancer patients with and without pathological complete response after neoadjuvant therapy followed by oesophagectomy: development and external validation of two independent nomograms

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate robust predictive models for patients with oesophageal cancer who achieved a pathological complete response (pCR) and those who did not (non-pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy and oesophagectomy.

DESIGN

Clinicopathological data of 6517 primary oesophageal cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy and oesophagectomy were obtained from the National Cancer Database for the training cohort. An independent cohort of 444 Chinese patients served as the validation set. Two distinct multivariable Cox models of overall survival (OS) were constructed for pCR and non-pCR patients, respectively, and were presented using web-based dynamic nomograms (graphical representation of predicted OS based on the clinical characteristics that a patient could input into the website). The calibration plot, concordance index and decision curve analysis were employed to assess calibration, discrimination and clinical usefulness of the predictive models.

RESULTS

In total, 13 and 15 variables were used to predict OS for pCR and non-pCR patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy followed by oesophagectomy, respectively. Key predictors included demographic characteristics, pretreatment clinical stage, surgical approach, pathological information and postoperative treatments. The predictive models for pCR and non-pCR patients demonstrated good calibration and clinical utility, with acceptable discrimination that surpassed that of the current tumour, node, metastases staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

The web-based dynamic nomograms for pCR (https://predict-survival.shinyapps.io/pCR-eso/) and non-pCR patients (https://predict-survival.shinyapps.io/non-pCR-eso/) developed in this study can facilitate the calculation of OS probability for individual patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy and radical oesophagectomy, aiding clinicians and patients in making personalised treatment decisions.

Research on Rare Diseases in Germany - The cancer predisposition syndrome registry

Background

Cancer predisposition syndromes (CPS) are rare diseases that are associated with an increased risk of cancer due to genetic alterations. At least 8 % of all cases of childhood cancer are attributable to CPS [1, 2]. The CPS registry was launched in 2017 to learn more about CPS and to improve the care to those afflicted by these diseases.

Methods

This is an internationally networked registry with associated accompanying studies that investigate cancer risks and spectra, the possibilities of cancer prevention, early detection and therapy.

Results

For several of these syndromes, new insights into the cancer risks and cancer types as well as factors modifying cancer risk have been gained. In addition, experimental, psycho-oncological, preclinical and clinical studies were initiated.

Conclusions

The CPS registry is an example of how progress can be made within a short period of time to the benefit of individuals with rare diseases through systematic data collection and research.

Health status of the old and very old people in Germany: results of the Gesundheit 65+ study

Background

The demographic change makes comprehensive health reporting on health at older age an important topic.

Methods

Gesundheit 65+ is a longitudinal epidemiological study on the health status of persons aged 65 and older in Germany. Based on a two-stage stratified random sample from 128 local population registers, 3,694 persons participated in the baseline survey between June 2021 and April 2022 (47.9 % women, mean age 78.8 years). Weighted prevalences for 19 indicators of the baseline survey are presented overall and by age, sex, education and region of residence.

Results

Overall, 52.0 % of all participants of the baseline survey reported to be in good or very good health, and 78.5 % reported high or very high satisfaction with their life. This was in contrast to the large number of health/functional limitations whose prevalences ranged from 5.3 % for severe visual limitations to 69.2 % for multimorbidity. The health status of women was clearly worse than that of men, and the health status of persons aged 80 and older was worse than between 65 and 79 years of age. There was a clear educational gradient evident in the health status, but there were no differences between West and East Germany.

Conclusions

Gesundheit 65+ provides a comprehensive database for description of the health status of old and very old people in Germany, on the basis of which recommendations for action for policy and practice can be derived.

Rates of repeated colonoscopies to clean the colon from low-risk and high-risk adenomas: results from the EPoS trials

OBJECTIVE

High-quality colonoscopy (adequate bowel preparation, whole-colon visualisation and removal of all neoplastic polyps) is a prerequisite to start polyp surveillance, and is ideally achieved in one colonoscopy. In a large multinational polyp surveillance trial, we aimed to investigate clinical practice variation in number of colonoscopies needed to enrol patients with low-risk and high-risk adenomas in polyp surveillance.

DESIGN

We retrieved data of all patients with low-risk adenomas (one or two tubular adenomas <10 mm with low-grade dysplasia) and high-risk adenomas (3-10 adenomas, ≥1 adenoma ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia or villous components) in the European Polyp Surveillance trials fulfilling certain logistic and methodologic criteria. We analysed variations in number of colonoscopies needed to achieve high-quality colonoscopy and enter polyp surveillance by endoscopy centre, and by endoscopists who enrolled ≥30 patients.

RESULTS

The study comprised 15 581 patients from 38 endoscopy centres in five European countries; 6794 patients had low-risk and 8787 had high-risk adenomas. 961 patients (6.2%, 95% CI 5.8% to 6.6%) underwent two or more colonoscopies before surveillance began; 101 (1.5%, 95% CI 1.2% to 1.8%) in the low-risk group and 860 (9.8%, 95% CI 9.2% to 10.4%) in the high-risk group. Main reasons were poor bowel preparation (21.3%) or incomplete colonoscopy/polypectomy (14.4%) or planned second procedure (27.8%). Need of repeat colonoscopy varied between study centres ranging from 0% to 11.8% in low-risk adenoma patients and from 0% to 63.9% in high-risk adenoma patients. On the second colonoscopy, the two most common reasons for a repeat (third) colonoscopy were piecemeal resection (26.5%) and unspecified reason (23.9%).

CONCLUSION

There is considerable practice variation in the number of colonoscopies performed to achieve complete polyp removal, indicating need for targeted quality improvement to reduce patient burden.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02319928.

Colonoscopy surveillance following adenoma removal to reduce the risk of colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Colonoscopy surveillance is recommended for some patients post polypectomy. The 2002 UK surveillance guidelines classify post-polypectomy patients into low, intermediate and high risk, and recommend different strategies for each classification. Limited evidence supports these guidelines.

OBJECTIVES

To examine, for each risk group, long-term colorectal cancer incidence by baseline characteristics and the number of surveillance visits; the effects of interval length on detection rates of advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer at first surveillance; and the cost-effectiveness of surveillance compared with no surveillance.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study and economic evaluation.

SETTING

Seventeen NHS hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with a colonoscopy and at least one adenoma at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Long-term colorectal cancer incidence after baseline and detection rates of advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer at first surveillance.

DATA SOURCES

Hospital databases, NHS Digital, the Office for National Statistics, National Services Scotland and Public Health England.

METHODS

Cox regression was used to compare colorectal cancer incidence in the presence and absence of surveillance and to identify colorectal cancer risk factors. Risk factors were used to stratify risk groups into higher- and lower-risk subgroups. We examined detection rates of advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer at first surveillance by interval length. Cost-effectiveness of surveillance compared with no surveillance was evaluated in terms of incremental costs per colorectal cancer prevented and per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

RESULTS

Our study included 28,972 patients, of whom 14,401 (50%), 11,852 (41%) and 2719 (9%) were classed as low, intermediate and high risk, respectively. The median follow-up time was 9.3 years. Colorectal cancer incidence was 140, 221 and 366 per 100,000 person-years among low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients, respectively. Attendance at one surveillance visit was associated with reduced colorectal cancer incidence among low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients [hazard ratios were 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.80), 0.59 (95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.81) and 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.82), respectively]. Compared with the general population, colorectal cancer incidence without surveillance was similar among low-risk patients and higher among high-risk patients [standardised incidence ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 1.02) and 1.91 (95% confidence interval 1.39 to 2.56), respectively]. For intermediate-risk patients, standardised incidence ratios differed for the lower- (0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.99) and higher-risk (1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.78) subgroups. In each risk group, incremental costs per colorectal cancer prevented and per quality-adjusted life-year gained with surveillance were lower for the higher-risk subgroup than for the lower-risk subgroup. Incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained were lowest for the higher-risk subgroup of high-risk patients at £7821.

LIMITATIONS

The observational design means that we cannot assume that surveillance caused the reductions in cancer incidence. The fact that some cancer staging data were missing places uncertainty on our cost-effectiveness estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance was associated with reduced colorectal cancer incidence in all risk groups. However, in low-risk patients and the lower-risk subgroup of intermediate-risk patients, colorectal cancer incidence was no higher than in the general population without surveillance, indicating that surveillance might not be necessary. Surveillance was most cost-effective for the higher-risk subgroup of high-risk patients.

FUTURE WORK

Studies should examine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of post-polypectomy surveillance without prior classification of patients into risk groups.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered as ISRCTN15213649.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 26. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

COVID-19 and liver cancer: lost patients and larger tumours

BACKGROUND

Northern England has been experiencing a persistent rise in the number of primary liver cancers, largely driven by an increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) secondary to alcohol-related liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Here we review the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on primary liver cancer services and patients in our region.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with newly diagnosed liver cancer in our region.

DESIGN

We prospectively audited our service for the first year of the pandemic (March 2020-February 2021), comparing mode of presentation, disease stage, treatments and outcomes to a retrospective observational consecutive cohort immediately prepandemic (March 2019-February 2020).

RESULTS

We observed a marked decrease in HCC referrals compared with previous years, falling from 190 confirmed new cases to 120 (37%). Symptomatic became the the most common mode of presentation, with fewer tumours detected by surveillance or incidentally (% surveillance/incidental/symptomatic; 34/42/24 prepandemic vs 27/33/40 in the pandemic, p=0.013). HCC tumour size was larger in the pandemic year (60±4.6 mm vs 48±2.6 mm, p=0.017), with a higher incidence of spontaneous tumour haemorrhage. The number of new cases of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) fell only slightly, with symptomatic presentation typical. Patients received treatment appropriate for their cancer stage, with waiting times shorter for patients with HCC and unchanged for patients with ICC. Survival was associated with stage both before and during the pandemic. 9% acquired COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSION

The pandemic-associated reduction in referred patients in our region was attributed to the disruption of routine healthcare. For those referred, treatments and survival were appropriate for their stage at presentation. Non-referred or missing patients are expected to present with more advanced disease, with poorer outcomes. While protective measures are necessary during the pandemic, we recommend routine healthcare services continue, with patients encouraged to engage.

Establishing a Mental Health Surveillance in Germany: Development of a framework concept and indicator set

In the course of the recognition of mental health as an essential component of population health, the Robert Koch Institute has begun developing a Mental Health Surveillance (MHS) system for Germany. MHS aims to continuously report data for relevant mental health indicators, thus creating a basis for evidence-based planning and evaluation of public health measures. In order to develop a set of indicators for the adult population, potential indicators were identified through a systematic literature review and selected in a consensus process by international and national experts and stakeholders. The final set comprises 60 indicators which, together, represent a multidimensional public health framework for mental health across four fields of action. For the fifth field of action 'Mental health promotion and prevention' indicators still need to be developed. The methodology piloted proved to be practicable. Strengths and limitations will be discussed regarding the search and definition of indicators, the scope of the indicator set as well as the participatory decision-making process. Next steps in setting up the MHS will be the operationalisation of the single indicators and their extension to also cover children and adolescents. Given assured data availability, the MHS will contribute to broadening our knowledge on population mental health, supporting a targeted promotion of mental health and reducing the disease burden in persons with mental disorders.

Optimal surveillance strategies for patients with stage 1 cutaneous melanoma post primary tumour excision: three systematic reviews and an economic model

BACKGROUND

Malignant melanoma is the fifth most common cancer in the UK, with rates continuing to rise, resulting in considerable burden to patients and the NHS.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative follow-up strategies for stage IA and IB melanoma.

REVIEW METHODS

Three systematic reviews were conducted. (1) The effectiveness of surveillance strategies. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk-of-Bias 2.0 tool. (2) Prediction models to stratify by risk of recurrence, metastases and survival. Model performance was assessed by study-reported measures of discrimination (e.g. D-statistic, Harrel's c-statistic), calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow 'goodness-of-fit' test) or overall performance (e.g. Brier score, R ²). Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). (3) Diagnostic test accuracy of fine-needle biopsy and ultrasonography. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and overall survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Review data and data from elsewhere were used to model the cost-effectiveness of alternative surveillance strategies and the value of further research.

RESULTS

(1) The surveillance review included one randomised controlled trial. There was no evidence of a difference in new primary or recurrence detected (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 1.31). Risk of bias was considered to be of some concern. Certainty of the evidence was low. (2) Eleven risk prediction models were identified. Discrimination measures were reported for six models, with the area under the operating curve ranging from 0.59 to 0.88. Three models reported calibration measures, with coefficients of ≥ 0.88. Overall performance was reported by two models. In one, the Brier score was slightly better than the American Joint Committee on Cancer scheme score. The other reported an R ² of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.45 to 0.49). All studies were judged to have a high risk of bias. (3) The diagnostic test accuracy review identified two studies. One study considered fine-needle biopsy and the other considered ultrasonography. The sensitivity and specificity for fine-needle biopsy were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97) and 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97), respectively. For ultrasonography, sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 1.00) and 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 0.99), respectively. For the reference standards and flow and timing domains, the risk of bias was rated as being high for both studies. The cost-effectiveness results suggest that, over a lifetime, less intensive surveillance than recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence might be worthwhile. There was considerable uncertainty. Improving the diagnostic performance of cancer nurse specialists and introducing a risk prediction tool could be promising. Further research on transition probabilities between different stages of melanoma and on improving diagnostic accuracy would be of most value.

LIMITATIONS

Overall, few data of limited quality were available, and these related to earlier versions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging. Consequently, there was considerable uncertainty in the economic evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite adoption of rigorous methods, too few data are available to justify changes to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations on surveillance. However, alternative strategies warrant further research, specifically on improving estimates of incidence, progression of recurrent disease; diagnostic accuracy and health-related quality of life; developing and evaluating risk stratification tools; and understanding patient preferences.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018086784.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol 25, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Health monitoring of refugees in reception centres for asylum seekers: Decentralized surveillance network for the analysis of routine medical data

Refugees and asylum seekers living in reception centres tend to be not adequately included in population-based studies, routine medical data and official statistics. As part of the research project 'Health and primary-care sentinel surveillance in reception- and accommodation-centres for asylum-seekers in Germany' (PriCare), a health-monitoring approach was developed for the secondary use of routine medical data from on-site outpatient clinics in reception centres. To this end, a software application (Refugee Care Manager, RefCare©) for the digitisation and harmonisation of medical records was designed and implemented in reception centres in three German federal states. The approach of distributed computing in a surveillance network allows for the decentralised, harmonised analysis of the routine medical data stored in RefCare© in a manner that fully complies with data protection regulations and circumvents the need for centralised data storage. RefCare© provides an integrated surveillance feature that enables analyses of 64 indicators on population, morbidity, healthcare processes and quality of care to be undertaken across multiple facilities. This article describes the conceptual and practical approach and the technical procedures put in place to do so, and provides examples of the results that have been gained so far.

The selection and definition of indicators in public health monitoring for the 65+ age group in Germany

Selecting relevant indicators is an important step in the development of public health monitoring for older people. Indicators can be used to combine information comprehensively from various data sources and enable recurring, comparable findings to be made about the health of older people. Indicators were systematically compiled from existing international monitoring systems. An indicator set on health in old age was developed using a multistage, structured consensus-based process together with an interdisciplinary panel of experts. The resulting 18 indicators were assigned to three health areas: (1) environmental factors, (2) activities and participation, and (3) personal factors. Data sources that can be used for the indicators are the health surveys within the framework of the Robert Koch Institute's (RKI) health monitoring system, as well as surveys from other research institutes and official statistics. In the future, the indicator set is to be developed further and integrated into an overall approach that is geared towards health reporting and the monitoring of chronic diseases in all phases of life.

Selecting and defining indicators for diabetes surveillance in Germany

Mainly because of the large number of people affected and associated significant health policy implications, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is developing a public health surveillance system using diabetes as an example. In a first step to ensure long-term and comparable data collection and establish efficient surveillance structures, the RKI has defined a set of relevant indicators for diabetes surveillance. An extensive review of the available literature followed by a structured process of consensus provided the basis for a harmonised set of 30 core and 10 supplementary indicators. They correspond to the following four fields of activity: (1) reducing diabetes risk, (2) improving diabetes early detection and treatment, (3) reducing diabetes complications, (4) reducing the disease burden and overall costs of the disease. In future, in addition to the primary data provided by RKI health monitoring diabetes surveillance needs to also consider the results from secondary data sources. Currently, barriers to accessing this data remain, which will have to be overcome, and gaps in the data closed. The RKI intentends to continuously update this set of indicators and at some point apply it also to further chronic diseases with high public health relevance.

An evidence-based treatment algorithm for colorectal polyp cancers: results from the Scottish Screen-detected Polyp Cancer Study (SSPoCS)

OBJECTIVES

Colorectal polyp cancers present clinicians with a treatment dilemma. Decisions regarding whether to offer segmental resection or endoscopic surveillance are often taken without reference to good quality evidence. The aim of this study was to develop a treatment algorithm for patients with screen-detected polyp cancers.

DESIGN

This national cohort study included all patients with a polyp cancer identified through the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme between 2000 and 2012. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the impact of clinical, endoscopic and pathological variables on the rate of adverse events (residual tumour in patients undergoing segmental resection or cancer-related death or disease recurrence in any patient). These data were used to develop a clinically relevant treatment algorithm.

RESULTS

485 patients with polyp cancers were included. 186/485 (38%) underwent segmental resection and residual tumour was identified in 41/186 (22%). The only factor associated with an increased risk of residual tumour in the bowel wall was incomplete excision of the original polyp (OR 5.61, p=0.001), while only lymphovascular invasion was associated with an increased risk of lymph node metastases (OR 5.95, p=0.002). When patients undergoing segmental resection or endoscopic surveillance were considered together, the risk of adverse events was significantly higher in patients with incomplete excision (OR 10.23, p<0.001) or lymphovascular invasion (OR 2.65, p=0.023).

CONCLUSION

A policy of surveillance is adequate for the majority of patients with screen-detected colorectal polyp cancers. Consideration of segmental resection should be reserved for those with incomplete excision or evidence of lymphovascular invasion.

Time trends in incidence and mortality of respiratory diseases of high public health relevance in Germany

Respiratory diseases are major causes of disease burden and mortality throughout the world. In Germany, alongside acute respiratory infections (ARI), chronic lung diseases - including lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and asthma - are of particular socioeconomic importance. ARI incidence rates differ significantly according to age, season and year. They are recorded as weekly consultation rates as reported by selected outpatient and inpatient care facilities. Between 2009 and 2016, the highest incidence rates of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) were recorded among young children in outpatient (9.4%) and inpatient (0.2%) care. Mortality rates for ARI are also subject to seasonal and annual fluctuations. However, the official statistics on causes of death, which lead to estimates of more than 17,000 annual deaths, provide an inadequate measure of death rates because chronic underlying illnesses are often recorded as the cause of death rather than a more recently acquired acute infection. Therefore, the excess mortality caused by ARI needs to be assessed in the context of influenza outbreaks. Regarding lung cancer, COPD and asthma, the long-term time trends in disease incidence and mortality rates are of particular interest from a health policy perspective. Analyses of data from the official statistics on causes of death for the years 1998 through 2015 show that mortality rates for lung cancer and COPD decreased on average by 1.8% and 1.1% per year respectively, among men, whereas among women they increased by 2.5% (lung cancer) and 2.3% (COPD) annually. Nevertheless, more men than women died of lung cancer or COPD in 2015 in Germany: 29,378 men and 15,881 women died from lung cancer, and 17,300 men and 13,773 women died from COPD. During the same period, the asthma mortality rates decreased on average by 8.3% annually among women and by 11.2% annually among men, and the absolute number of deaths came down to 659 among women and 393 among men. Lung cancer incidence rates have been at similar levels as lung cancer death rates since 1998. No such data are available on time trends in COPD or asthma incidence rates. Coordinated surveillance of respiratory diseases needs to be expanded within the framework of international action plans for disease prevention.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

Objective

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data.

Methods

The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling.

Results

Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence.

Conclusions

This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys.

Risk stratification of individuals with low-risk colorectal adenomas using clinical characteristics: a pooled analysis

OBJECTIVE

For individuals with 1-2 small (<1 cm) low-risk colorectal adenomas, international guidelines range from no surveillance to offering surveillance colonoscopy in 5-10 years. We hypothesised that the risks for metachronous advanced neoplasia (AN) among patients with low-risk adenomas differ based on clinical factors distinct from those currently used.

DESIGN

We pooled data from seven prospective studies to assess the risk of metachronous AN. Two groups with 1-2 small adenomas were defined based on guidelines from the UK (n=4516) or the European Union (EU)/US (n=2477).

RESULTS

Absolute risk of metachronous AN ranged from a low of 2.9% to a high of 12.2%, depending on specific risk factor and guideline used. For the UK group, the highest absolute risks for metachronous AN were found among individuals with a history of prior polyp (12.2%), villous histology (12.2%), age ≥70 years (10.9%), high-grade dysplasia (10.9%), any proximal adenoma (10.2%), distal and proximal adenoma (10.8%) or two adenomas (10.1%). For the EU/US group, the highest absolute risks for metachronous AN were among individuals with a history of prior polyp (11.5%) or the presence of both proximal and distal adenomas (11.0%). In multivariate analyses, strong associations for increasing age and history of prior polyps and odds of metachronous AN were observed, whereas more modest associations were shown for baseline proximal adenomas and those with villous features.

CONCLUSIONS

Risks of metachronous AN among individuals with 1-2 small adenomas vary according to readily available clinical characteristics. These characteristics may be considered for recommending colonoscopy surveillance and require further investigation.

Clinical risk factors of colorectal cancer in patients with serrated polyposis syndrome: a multicentre cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE

Serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) is accompanied by an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients fulfilling the clinical criteria, as defined by the WHO, have a wide variation in CRC risk. We aimed to assess risk factors for CRC in a large cohort of patients with SPS and to evaluate the risk of CRC during surveillance.

DESIGN

In this retrospective cohort analysis, all patients with SPS from seven centres in the Netherlands and two in the UK were enrolled. WHO criteria were used to diagnose SPS. Patients who only fulfilled WHO criterion-2, with IBD and/or a known hereditary CRC syndrome were excluded.

RESULTS

In total, 434 patients with SPS were included for analysis; 127 (29.3%) were diagnosed with CRC. In a per-patient analysis ≥1 serrated polyp (SP) with dysplasia (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.28 to 3.33), ≥1 advanced adenoma (OR 2.30; 95% CI 1.47 to 3.67) and the fulfilment of both WHO criteria 1 and 3 (OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.51) were associated with CRC, while a history of smoking was inversely associated with CRC (OR 0.36; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.56). Overall, 260 patients underwent surveillance after clearing of all relevant lesions, during which two patients were diagnosed with CRC, corresponding to 1.9 events/1000 person-years surveillance (95% CI 0.3 to 6.4).

CONCLUSION

The presence of SPs containing dysplasia, advanced adenomas and/or combined WHO criteria 1 and 3 phenotype is associated with CRC in patients with SPS. Patients with a history of smoking show a lower risk of CRC, possibly due to a different pathogenesis of disease. The risk of developing CRC during surveillance is lower than previously reported in literature, which may reflect a more mature multicentre cohort with less selection bias.

Access of non-specialist sexual health services by men who have sex with men: do they differ from those attending specialist services?

OBJECTIVES

Men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a disproportionate burden of STIs. While routine STI surveillance data suggest MSM regularly access specialist genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics for their sexual healthcare, the extent to which MSM attend non-specialist sexual health services (SHSs) is unclear.

METHODS

We used data from the GUM Clinic Activity Data Set (GUMCADv2), the national STI surveillance system, to compare the characteristics, service usage and STI outcomes of MSM accessing specialist and non-specialist (non-GUM) SHSs in England in 2014. Pearson's χ², Student's t-test and logistic regression analysis were used.

RESULTS

Where sexual orientation was recorded (92%), 11% (4552/41 597) of non-GUM attendances were among MSM compared with 28% (280 466/999 331) of GUM attendances (p<0.001). Compared with those attending GUM services, MSM attending non-GUM services were younger (mean age: 30.2 years vs 37.7 years; p<0.001) and were more likely to be of mixed ethnicity (4.9% vs 3.5%; p<0.001), to have had a full sexual health screen (chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis and HIV tests) (48.0% vs 37.0%; p<0.001) and to be diagnosed with chlamydia (7.4% vs 4.1%; p<0.001) and gonorrhoea (8.5% vs 6.5%: p<0.001). MSM attending non-GUM services had slightly lower HIV test uptake (87.0% vs 95.0%; p=0.157) and were less likely to be diagnosed with HIV (0.5% vs 0.8%; p=0.019), compared with those attending GUM clinics.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-specialist SHSs play an important role in the care of MSM and should ensure services meet their needs.

What are the characteristics of, and clinical outcomes in men who have sex with men prescribed HIV postexposure prophylaxis following sexual exposure (PEPSE) at sexual health clinics in England?

OBJECTIVES

To explore the risk factors for, and clinical outcomes in men who have sex with men (MSM) prescribed HIV postexposure prophylaxis following sexual exposure (PEPSE) at sexual health clinics (SHCs) in England.

METHODS

National STI surveillance data were extracted from the genitourinary medicine clinic activity dataset (GUMCADv2) for 2011-2014. Quarterly and annual trends in the number of episodes where PEPSE was prescribed were analysed by gender and sexual risk. Risk factors associated with being prescribed PEPSE among MSM attendees were explored using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Subsequent HIV acquisition from 4 months after initiating PEPSE was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by clinical risk profiles.

RESULTS

During 2011-2014, there were 24 004 episodes where PEPSE was prescribed at SHCs, of which 69% were to MSM. The number of episodes where PEPSE was prescribed to MSM increased from 2383 in 2011 to 5944 in 2014, and from 1384 to 2226 for heterosexual men and women. 15% of MSM attendees received two or more courses of PEPSE. Compared with MSM attendees not prescribed PEPSE, MSM prescribed PEPSE were significantly more likely to have been diagnosed with a bacterial STI in the previous 12 months (adjusted OR (95% CI)-gonorrhoea: 11.6 (10.5 to 12.8); chlamydia: 5.02 (4.46 to 5.67); syphilis: 2.25 (1.73 to 2.93)), and were more likely to subsequently acquire HIV (adjusted HR (aHR) (95% CI)-single PEPSE course: 2.54 (2.19 to 2.96); two or more PEPSE courses: aHR (95% CI) 4.80 (3.69 to 6.25)). The probability of HIV diagnosis was highest in MSM prescribed PEPSE who had also been diagnosed with a bacterial STI in the previous 12 months (aHR (95% CI): 6.61 (5.19 to 8.42)).

CONCLUSIONS

MSM prescribed PEPSE are at high risk of subsequent HIV acquisition and our data show further risk stratification by clinical and PEPSE prescribing history is possible, which might inform clinical practice and HIV prevention initiatives in MSM.

Risk factors for developing colorectal cancer in Japanese patients with ulcerative colitis: a retrospective observational study-CAPITAL (Cohort and Practice for IBD total management in Kyoto-Shiga Links) study I

Background and Aims

Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) are at risk for developing colorectal cancer (CRC), despite the development of new therapeutic agents. Stratification of the individual UC-patient's risk would be helpful to validate the risk factors for CRC. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for the development of CRC in a large cohort of patients with UC.

Methods

Data were obtained from 12 hospitals in the Kyoto-Shiga region during 2003–2013. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 2137 patients with UC.

Results

In total, 60 lesions of CRC were detected in 43 (2.0%) of 2137 patients. 30 of the 43 patients were male. The median age was 53 years. The median duration of disease was 13 years, and 67.4% of these patients had a disease duration >10 years. Of the 43 patients, 34 (79.1%) had extensive colitis. Primary sclerosing cholangitis was detected in 2 patients (4.7%). The median corticosteroids (CS) dose was 6.4 g, and 4 patients were treated with a total of more than 10 g of CS. 18 of these patients underwent more than 1 year CS treatment. Of all 60 CRC lesions, 43 (71.7%) were located in the distal colon and 35 (58.3%) were of the superficial type. Moreover, the stage of CRC was stage 0 or I in 55.8% of the 43 patients with CRC. Multivariate analysis suggested that extensive colitis could be a risk factor for the development of advanced CRC in patients with UC.

Conclusions

Our findings indicated that male, extensive colitis, long-term duration of UC and family history of CRC, but not concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis, are important factors for predicting CRC in Japanese patients with UC. Moreover, long-standing extensive colitis might contribute to the progression of CRC. Further studies are required to establish CRC surveillance in Japanese patients with UC.

Very high incidence of syphilis in HIV-infected men who have sex with men in Buenos Aires city: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), particularly syphilis, is high and continues to rise among some populations, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). Furthermore, a higher incidence of STIs has been reported in HIV-positive than in HIV-negative MSM.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of syphilis in a cohort of men with HIV in Buenos Aires city.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study. We examined the records and visits made by men with HIV aged >18 years in our institution during a 1-year period. Venereal Disease Reference Laboratory (VDRL) results for all the men in our cohort during the study period were analysed. We considered a case of syphilis as incident if a person had a VDRL result of ≥16 DILS, provided that this was increased at least fourfold compared with a previous determination. All VDRL results ≤8 were investigated, and analysed together with the medical records, to determine if they were new cases.

RESULTS

We analysed the VDRL results and the clinical records of 1150 men followed up in our centre during the study period. Mean age was 40.9 years. According to the definition used, we registered 171 new cases of syphilis-that is, an incidence of 14.9/100 patients/year (95% CI 12.9 to 17.0). No significant differences in incidence according to age group were found, but there was a trend towards a lower incidence in older men. Ten men had two new episodes during the study.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of syphilis in this cohort of men with HIV (predominantly MSM) was very high. In addition to maintaining high surveillance for early diagnosis and treatment, it is necessary to implement newer and more effective measures to prevent syphilis and other STIs in this population.

Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver operating characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60 years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45 months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an 'Abnormal Marker Count' that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI 2.6 to 29.8) increased HR when compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length and the markers p16, MYC and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus.

Prevalence and patterns of tobacco smoking among Chinese adult men and women: findings of the 2010 national smoking survey

Background

China consumes about 40% of the world's cigarettes, predominantly by men, following a large increase in recent decades. We assess sex-specific prevalence and changing patterns of smoking in Chinese adults in the current decade.

Methods

A nationally representative survey of smoking was conducted in 2010 among 100 000 Chinese adults aged ≥18 years, using a multistage stratified cluster sampling method. Information on smoking frequency, type, amount, age started and quitting was collected. Sex-specific standardised prevalence and means were analysed and compared with estimates in the 1996 national survey.

Results

In Chinese men aged ≥18, 62.4% were ever-smokers in 2010, including 54.0% current smokers and 8.4% ex-smokers. The smoking prevalence was higher in rural than in urban men (63.9% vs 58.4%). In younger men, the age to start smoking was earlier and exclusive cigarette use was much higher. Among current smokers, only 17.3% intended to quit. Compared with a similar survey in 1996 among adults aged 30–69, more smokers had quit in 2010 than in 1996 (11.0% vs 4.2%), but the number of cigarettes smoked per current smoker was higher (17.9 vs 15.2). In Chinese women, only 3.4% ever smoked and there has been a large intergenerational decrease in smoking uptake rates. In 2010, there were 318 million current smokers in China, consuming an estimated 1740 billion cigarettes.

Conclusions

The prevalence of smoking remained extremely high in men, but low and falling in Chinese women. Tobacco smoking remains an important public health issue in China, and stronger and more efficient tobacco control is urgently needed.

A multicentre comparative prospective blinded analysis of EUS and MRI for screening of pancreatic cancer in high-risk individuals

OBJECTIVE

Endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI are promising tests to detect precursors and early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in high-risk individuals (HRIs). It is unclear which screening technique is to be preferred. We aimed to compare the efficacy of EUS and MRI in their ability to detect clinically relevant lesions in HRI.

DESIGN

Multicentre prospective study. The results of 139 asymptomatic HRI (>10-fold increased risk) undergoing first-time screening by EUS and MRI are described. Clinically relevant lesions were defined as solid lesions, main duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and cysts ≥10 mm. Results were compared in a blinded, independent fashion.

RESULTS

Two solid lesions (mean size 9 mm) and nine cysts ≥10 mm (mean size 17 mm) were detected in nine HRI (6%). Both solid lesions were detected by EUS only and proved to be a stage I PDAC and a multifocal pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia 2. Of the nine cysts ≥10 mm, six were detected by both imaging techniques and three were detected by MRI only. The agreement between EUS and MRI for the detection of clinically relevant lesions was 55%. Of these clinically relevant lesions detected by both techniques, there was a good agreement for location and size.

CONCLUSIONS

EUS and/or MRI detected clinically relevant pancreatic lesions in 6% of HRI. Both imaging techniques were complementary rather than interchangeable: contrary to EUS, MRI was found to be very sensitive for the detection of cystic lesions of any size; MRI, however, might have some important limitations with regard to the timely detection of solid lesions.

Sex differences in disease presentation, treatment and clinical outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-centre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although sex differences in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk are well known, it is unclear whether sex differences also exist in clinical presentation and survival outcomes once HCC develops.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1886 HCC patients seen in a US medical centre in 1998-2015. Data were obtained by chart review with survival data also by National Death Index search.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 1449 male and 437 female patients. At diagnosis, men were significantly younger than women (59.9±10.7 vs 64.0±11.6, p<0.0001). Men had significantly higher rates of tobacco (57.7% vs 31.0%, p<0.001) and alcohol use (63.2% vs 35.1%, p<0.001). Women were more likely to be diagnosed by routine screening versus symptomatically or incidentally (65.5% vs 58.2%, p=0.03) and less likely to present with tumours >5 cm (30.2% vs 39.8%, p=0.001). Surgical and non-surgical treatment utilisation was similar for both sexes. Men and women had no significant difference in median survival from the time of diagnosis (median 30.7 (range=24.5-41.3) vs 33.1 (range=27.4-37.3) months, p=0.84). On multivariate analysis, significant predictors for improved survival included younger age, surgical or non-surgical treatment (vs supportive care), diagnosis by screening, tumour within Milan criteria and lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, but not female sex (adjusted HR=1.01, CI 0.82 to 1.24, p=0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Although men have much higher risk for HCC development, there were no significant sex differences in disease presentation or survival except for older age and lower tumour burden at diagnosis in women. Female sex was not an independent predictor for survival.

Identifying and interpreting spatiotemporal variation in diagnoses of infectious syphilis among men, England: 2009 to 2013

OBJECTIVES

Spatial clusters and variations in the trajectory of local epidemics were explored in relation to sexual orientation, demographic factors, stage of syphilis infection and HIV serostatus.

METHODS

Kulldorff's scan statistics (SaTScan) was used to distinguish endemic and temporary clusters using a two-stage analysis.

RESULTS

Endemic areas were found in London, Manchester, Brighton and Blackpool. Up to 40% of diagnoses were found within an 11 km radius of central London. Of men diagnosed with syphilis in London, 80% were men who have sex with men (MSM). Annual incidence in London increased from 24 cases (95% CI 23 to 26) per 100 000 male population in 2009 to 36 cases (95% CI 34 to38) in 2013. In comparison with clusters, endemic areas were characterised by a significantly higher (p<0.05) proportion of MSM (83% compared with 73%), increased HIV positivity (41% vs 15%), age 35 to 44 years (34% vs 23%), a lower proportion of patients born in the UK (50% vs 79%) and a lower proportion of primary stage infection (40% vs 47%). Space-time clusters outside endemic areas occurred in urban and rural areas and diagnoses fluctuated below 10 per month. Exponential increases in diagnoses resembling point source outbreaks were seen at two locations.

CONCLUSION

Control of syphilis in endemic areas has proved elusive and clusters present unique intervention opportunities. Investigating the diversity of local epidemics provides information that can be used to predict outbreak structure, plan and evaluate sexual health services and guide public health investigation, hypothesis generation and research.

Outbreak of syphilis in men who have sex with men living in rural North Wales (UK) associated with the use of social media

OBJECTIVES

To describe an outbreak of infectious syphilis in rural North Wales and the control measures implemented.

METHODS

Following reports of an increase of syphilis in North Wales, a multidisciplinary Outbreak Control Team (OCT) was established. A multilevel prevention and control response was initiated, including: active case surveillance, partner notification and treatment, sexual network analysis, awareness raising with professionals and affected communities, point-of-care syphilis testing at a sauna and a health promotion campaign targeting users of men who have sex with men (MSM) social network mobile phone applications (apps).

RESULTS

Four cases of infectious syphilis were diagnosed in clinics in North Wales per 100 000 population in 2013 compared with a mean of one case per 100 000 in the preceding decade. Diagnosed cases peaked in January 2014, declining in the first half of 2014. Initial cases were clustered in the westerly rural counties of North Wales and were predominantly white men, self-reporting as MSM (median age: 34 years, range: 17-61). Point-of-care testing at a sauna did not identity further new infections, suggesting that the cluster was relatively focused and had probably been detected early. The use of apps to find sexual partners was a feature of the network affected. A health promotion campaign, initiated by the OCT, targeting men using MSM apps reached 92% of the 755 men messaged.

CONCLUSIONS

The outbreak was successfully controlled. However, it is difficult to determine which of the interventions implemented were most effective. Future outbreaks should be used as an opportunity to evaluate interventions using apps.

Estimating the burden of heat illness in England during the 2013 summer heatwave using syndromic surveillance

BACKGROUND

The burden of heat illness on health systems is not well described in the UK. Although the UK generally experiences mild summers, the frequency and intensity of hot weather is likely to increase due to climate change, particularly in Southern England. We investigated the impact of the moderate heatwave in 2013 on primary care and emergency department (ED) visits using syndromic surveillance data in England.

METHODS

General practitioner in hours (GPIH), GP out of hours (GPOOH) and ED syndromic surveillance systems were used to monitor the health impact of heat/sun stroke symptoms (heat illness). Data were stratified by age group and compared between heatwave and non-heatwave years. Incidence rate ratios were calculated for GPIH heat illness consultations.

RESULTS

GP consultations and ED attendances for heat illness increased during the heatwave period; GPIH consultations increased across all age groups, but the highest rates were in school children and those aged ≥75 years, with the latter persisting beyond the end of the heatwave. Extrapolating to the English population, we estimated that the number of GPIH consultations for heat illness during the whole summer (May to September) 2013 was 1166 (95% CI 1064 to 1268). This was double the rate observed during non-heatwave years.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the monitoring of heat illness (symptoms of heat/sun stroke) as part of the Heatwave Plan for England, but also suggest that specifically monitoring heat illness in children, especially those of school age, would provide additional early warning of, and situation awareness during heatwaves.

Impact of surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus on tumour stage and survival of patients with neoplastic progression

OBJECTIVE

Endoscopic surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus (BO) is under discussion given the overall low incidence of neoplastic progression and lack of evidence that it prevents advanced oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of endoscopic BO surveillance on tumour stage and survival of patients with neoplastic progression.

DESIGN

783 patients with BO of at least 2 cm were included in a multicentre prospective cohort and followed during surveillance according to the American College of Gastroenterology guidelines. Cases of high-grade dysplasia and OAC were identified during follow-up. OAC staging was performed according to the 7th UICC-AJCC classification. Survival data were collected and crosschecked using death and municipal registries. Data from patients with OAC in the general population were obtained from the Dutch cancer registry. We compared survival of patients with BO with neoplastic progression during surveillance with those of patients without neoplastic progression and patients with OAC in the general population.

RESULTS

53 patients with BO developed high-grade dysplasia or OAC during surveillance. Thirty-five (66%) were classified as stage 0, 14 (26%) as stage 1 and 4 (8%) as stage 2. OAC was diagnosed at an earlier stage during BO surveillance than in the general population (p<0.001). Survival of patients with BO with neoplastic progression was not significantly worse than those of patients without neoplastic progression and similar to survival of patients with stage 0 or stage 1 OAC in the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

OAC is detected at an earlier stage during BO surveillance than in the general population with good survival rates.

Length of Barrett's oesophagus and cancer risk: implications from a large sample of patients with early oesophageal adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Although it is well understood that the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma increases with Barrett length, transition risks for cancer associated with different Barrett lengths are unknown. We aimed to estimate annual cancer transition rates for patients with long-segment (≥3 cm), short-segment (≥1 to <3 cm) and ultra-short-segment (<1 cm) Barrett's oesophagus.

DESIGN

We used three data sources to estimate the annual cancer transition rates for each Barrett length category: (1) the distribution of long, short and ultra-short Barrett's oesophagus among a large German cohort with newly diagnosed T1 oesophageal adenocarcinoma; (2) population-based German incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma; and (3) published estimates of the population prevalence of Barrett's oesophagus for each Barrett length category.

RESULTS

Among 1017 patients with newly diagnosed T1 oesophageal adenocarcinoma, 573 (56%) had long-segment, 240 (24%) short-segment and 204 (20%) ultra-short-segment Barrett's oesophagus. The base-case estimates for the prevalence of Barrett's oesophagus among the general population were 1.5%, 5% and 14%, respectively. The annual cancer transition rates for patients with long, short and ultra-short Barrett's oesophagus were 0.22%, 0.03% and 0.01%, respectively. To detect one cancer, 450 patients with long-segment Barrett's oesophagus would need to undergo annual surveillance endoscopy; in short segment and ultra-short segment, the corresponding numbers of patients would be 3440 and 12,364. Similar results were obtained when applying US incidence data.

CONCLUSIONS

The large number of patients, who need to undergo endoscopic surveillance to detect one cancer, raises questions about the value of surveillance endoscopy in patients with short segment or ultra-short segment of Barrett's oesophagus.

TB-HIV co-infection in the Netherlands: estimating prevalence and under-reporting in national registration databases using a capture-recapture analysis

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of the HIV status in patients with tuberculosis (TB) and vice versa is crucial for proper individual patient management, while knowledge of the prevalence of co-infection guides preventive and therapeutic strategies. The aim of the study was to assess if national disease databases on TB and HIV are adequate sources to provide this information.

METHODS

A two way capture-recapture analysis to assess the completeness of the registers, and to obtain the prevalence of TB-HIV co-infection in the Netherlands in the years 2002-2012.

RESULTS

HIV testing was performed in less than 50% of the patients with TB. Of the 932 TB-HIV infected patients, just 293 (31.4%) were registered in both registers. Under-reporting of TB-HIV co-infection ranged from 50% to 70% in the national TB register, and from 31% to 37% in the HIV database. Prevalence of TB-HIV co-infection in the Netherlands in 2012 was 7.1% (95% CI 6.0% to 8.3%), which was more than double of the prevalence estimated from the national TB database.

CONCLUSIONS

TB-HIV co-infection is markedly under-reported in national disease databases. There is an urgent need for improved registration and preferably a routine data exchange between the two surveillance systems.

Can we use postal surveys with anonymous testing to monitor chlamydia prevalence in young women in England? Pilot study incorporating randomised controlled trial of recruitment methods

OBJECTIVES

Chlamydia prevalence in the general population is a potential outcome measure for the evaluation of chlamydia control programmes. We carried out a pilot study to determine the feasibility of using a postal survey for population-based chlamydia prevalence monitoring.

METHODS

Postal invitations were sent to a random sample of 2000 17-year-old to 18-year-old women registered with a general practitioner in two pilot areas in England. Recipients were randomised to receive either a self-sampling kit (n=1000), a self-sampling kit and offer of £5 voucher on return of sample (n=500) or a self-sampling kit on request (n=500). Participants returned a questionnaire and self-taken vulvovaginal swab sample for unlinked anonymous Chlamydia trachomatis testing. Non-responders were sent a reminder letter 3 weeks after initial invitation. We calculated the participation rate (number of samples returned/number of invitations sent) and cost per sample returned (including cost of consumables and postage) in each group.

RESULTS

A total of 155/2000 (7.8%) samples were returned with consent for testing. Participation rates varied by invitation group: 7.8% in the group who were provided with a self-sampling kit, 14% in the group who were also offered a voucher and 1.0% in the group who were not sent a kit. The cost per sample received was lowest (£36) in the group who were offered both a kit and a voucher.

CONCLUSIONS

The piloted survey methodology achieved low participation rates. This approach is not suitable for population-based monitoring of chlamydia prevalence among young women in England.

STUDY REGISTRATION NUMBER

(UKCRN ID 10913).

Conflicts of interest matter and awareness is needed

A conflict of interest arises by having two conflicting goals in one's research. The primary goal of research relevant to public health is to produce impartial evidence on health hazards for humans. Several entities - including industry - may have public health as a goal among others, but this is not their primary goal. Primary goals are in those cases profit or career, that conflict with the goal of health. It is a role of the State to foster research whose primary goal is impartial evidence on factors affecting population health. Disclosure of conflicts of interest is not enough: the view that disclosure solves all problems amounts to say that a declaration of having produced unbiased evidence is a self-fulfilling guarantee that the evidence will not be affected by conflicts of interest. This concept is seriously misleading. A conflict of interest arises from the circumstances in which research occurs and does not exist only in the opinion of some people or groups (or the authors of a paper).

Adherence to surveillance guidelines after removal of colorectal adenomas: a large, community-based study

OBJECTIVE

To determine adherence to recommended surveillance intervals in clinical practice.

DESIGN

2997 successive patients with a first adenoma diagnosis (57% male, mean age 59 years) from 10 hospitals, who underwent colonoscopy between 1998 and 2002, were identified via Pathologisch Anatomisch Landelijk Geautomatiseerd Archief: Dutch Pathology Registry. Their medical records were reviewed until 1 December 2008. Time to and findings at first surveillance colonoscopy were assessed. A surveillance colonoscopy occurring within ± 3 months of a 1-year recommended interval and ± 6 months of a recommended interval of 2 years or longer was considered appropriate. The analysis was stratified by period per change in guideline (before 2002: 2-3 years for patients with 1 adenoma, annually otherwise; in 2002: 6 years for 1-2 adenomas, 3 years otherwise). We also assessed differences in adenoma and colorectal cancer recurrence rates by surveillance timing.

RESULTS

Surveillance was inappropriate in 76% and 89% of patients diagnosed before 2002 and in 2002, respectively. Patients eligible under the pre-2002 guideline mainly received surveillance too late or were absent (57% of cases). For patients eligible under the 2002 guideline surveillance occurred mainly too early (48%). The rate of advanced neoplasia at surveillance was higher in patients with delayed surveillance compared with those with too early or appropriate timed surveillance (8% vs 4-5%, p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

There is much room for improving surveillance practice. Less than 25% of patients with adenoma receive appropriate surveillance. Such practice seriously hampers the effectiveness and efficiency of surveillance, as too early surveillance poses a considerable burden on available resources while delayed surveillance is associated with an increased rate of advanced adenoma and especially colorectal cancer.

Who tests whom? A comprehensive overview of Chlamydia trachomatis test practices in a Dutch region among different STI care providers for urogenital, anorectal and oropharyngeal sites in young people: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate and compare Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) diagnostic test practices of different sexually transmitted infection (STI) care providers in 16-29 year olds from one defined geographic Dutch region (280,000 inhabitants). Both number and proportion of positive CT tests (ie, test positivity) were assessed, and factors associated with these outcomes.

METHODS

Data on laboratory testing and diagnosis of urogenital, anorectal and oropharyngeal CT between 2006 and 2010 were retrieved from general practitioners (GPs), gynaecologists, an STI clinic and a population-based chlamydia screening programme. Multivariable regression analyses explored associations between age, sex, test year, socio-economic status (SES) and STI care provider and the outcomes being the number of tests and test positivity.

RESULTS

Overall, 22,831 tests were performed (1868 positive; 8.2%). Extragenital (ie, anorectal and oropharyngeal) tests accounted for 4% of all tests (7.5% positive) and were almost exclusively (99%) performed by the STI clinic. STI clinics tested most men (37.2% of all tested men), whereas GPs tested most women (29.9% of all tested women). GPs and STI clinics accounted for 73.3% (1326/1808) of urogenital CT diagnoses. In women, the number of tests increased with age, whereas test positivity decreased for all STI care providers. Lower SES was associated with higher test positivity in GP and gynaecology patients.

CONCLUSIONS

STI clinics performed most CT tests in men, whereas GPs performed most CT tests in women. GPs and STI clinics accounted for the majority of positives. Extragenital CT testing is rarely performed outside the STI clinic and needs to be promoted, especially in men who have sex with men.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis C and correlates of seropositivity among men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada: a cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVES

We sought to determine the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Vancouver, Canada, and associations of risk behaviours with HCV serostatus.

METHODS

We used data from the ManCount Study, a cross-sectional survey of MSM selected through a venue-based, time-location sampling method. Bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression modelling were used to determine correlates of HCV seropositivity. Bivariate analyses of participants who reported no history of injection drug use (IDU) were used to explore sexual behaviours associated with HCV seropositivity.

RESULTS

HCV seroprevalence was 4.9% (56/1132). Among HCV-seropositive participants who responded to the question, 22.4% (11/49) were unaware of their HCV-seropositive status, 84.9% (45/53) reported a history of IDU and 60.7% (34/56) were HIV positive by dried blood spot. Multivariate modelling found previous IDU (adjusted OR (AOR): 26.30, 95% CI 11.15 to 62.03), receiving goods, drugs or money for sex (AOR 4.98, 95% CI 2.43 to 10.20) and current smoking (AOR 3.46, 95% CI 1.47 to 8.16) were associated with HCV seropositivity. Among MSM who reported no history of IDU, HCV seropositivity was associated with bleeding after receptive anal sex (p=0.001) and a previous diagnosis of gonorrhoea (p=0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

HCV seroprevalence among a sample of MSM is higher than the general population and associated with a history of IDU. Among those who did not report IDU, we found evidence that suggests sexual exposure could be the route of transmission.

Olympics and Paralympics 2012 mass gathering in London: time-series analysis shows no increase in attendances at sexual health clinics

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games were associated with a change in the number of patients attending or diagnosed with a new sexually transmitted infection (STI) at sexual health clinics in London and Weymouth.

METHODS

We undertook an interrupted time-series analysis of surveillance data from the Genitourinary Medicine Clinic Activity Dataset (GUMCAD) collected at 33 genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics in London and Weymouth (where Games events were concentrated) between 2009 and 2012. Mixed-effects linear regression models of weekly attendance and diagnoses, incorporating temporal trends, bank holidays, categorical month and clinic closures, were used to test for the effect of the 'Olympic-Paralympic' period. We subdivided the 9-week 'Olympic-Paralympic' period (16 July 2012 to 17 September 2012) into five periods, including three Olympic weeks, two Paralympic weeks, pre-, post- and inter-Games weeks. We also compared characteristics of patients attending during the Olympic-Paralympic period and those attending during the same period in 2011.

RESULTS

During the 3 weeks of the Olympics, there was a significant reduction in the number of new episode attendances (2020 fewer, 5.6% reduction (95% CI -8.2 to -2.9)) and the number of patients diagnosed with an STI (267 fewer, 4.8% reduction (95% CI -8.6 to -0.9)) compared to expected. There were no important differences in the profile of patients attending during the 2012 Olympic-Paralympic period and those attending during the same period in 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that a 'business-as-usual' approach to managing local sexual health clinics during the 2012 Olympic and Paralympics would have been appropriate.

Web search activity data accurately predict population chronic disease risk in the USA

BACKGROUND

The WHO framework for non-communicable disease (NCD) describes risks and outcomes comprising the majority of the global burden of disease. These factors are complex and interact at biological, behavioural, environmental and policy levels presenting challenges for population monitoring and intervention evaluation. This paper explores the utility of machine learning methods applied to population-level web search activity behaviour as a proxy for chronic disease risk factors.

METHODS

Web activity output for each element of the WHO's Causes of NCD framework was used as a basis for identifying relevant web search activity from 2004 to 2013 for the USA. Multiple linear regression models with regularisation were used to generate predictive algorithms, mapping web search activity to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) measured risk factor/disease prevalence. Predictions for subsequent target years not included in the model derivation were tested against CDC data from population surveys using Pearson correlation and Spearman's r.

RESULTS

For 2011 and 2012, predicted prevalence was very strongly correlated with measured risk data ranging from fruits and vegetables consumed (r=0.81; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89) to alcohol consumption (r=0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98). Mean difference between predicted and measured differences by State ranged from 0.03 to 2.16. Spearman's r for state-wise predicted versus measured prevalence varied from 0.82 to 0.93.

CONCLUSIONS

The high predictive validity of web search activity for NCD risk has potential to provide real-time information on population risk during policy implementation and other population-level NCD prevention efforts.

Sexual behaviour among young Danes aged 15-29 years: a cross-sectional study of core indicators

OBJECTIVES

Sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancies occur at high rates among youth. Understanding sexual behaviour is essential for planning and implementing future effective preventive interventions. The present study examines the sexual behaviour in the general Danish population aged 15-29 years using the core indicators recommended by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

METHODS

A nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted in Denmark among a random sample of 20 000 men and women in 2012. Respondents completed a web-based sexual behaviour questionnaire and data were linked to a nationally held demographic database. Core indicators for sexual behaviour frequency stratified by gender are presented as unweighted and weighted data after consideration of sociodemographic differences between respondents and non-respondents.

RESULTS

Response rate was 20.4%. Condoms were used at sexual debut by 69.9% of women and 62.3% of men, while 14.3% of women and 15.1% of men used no contraceptives at sexual debut. Half of the respondents used condom alone at the latest sexual encounter with a steady partner (women 51.8%, men 55.2%), while 10% used no contraceptives. Having a sexual encounter with a casual partner decreased the likelihood of using condoms (women 43.7%, men 49.5%) and increased the likelihood of using no contraceptives (women 14.8%, men 20.9%). Data on sexual behaviour characteristics showed only minor changes when weighted for non-response.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings call for interventions addressing the use of appropriate contraception at sexual debut and at last sexual encounter; this seems particularly important when the sexual partner is a casual partner.

First population-level effectiveness evaluation of a national programme to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child, South Africa

Background

There is a paucity of data on the national population-level effectiveness of preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programmes in high-HIV-prevalence, resource-limited settings. We assessed national PMTCT impact in South Africa (SA), 2010.

Methods

A facility-based survey was conducted using a stratified multistage, cluster sampling design. A nationally representative sample of 10 178 infants aged 4–8 weeks was recruited from 565 clinics. Data collection included caregiver interviews, record reviews and infant dried blood spots to identify HIV-exposed infants (HEI) and HIV-infected infants. During analysis, self-reported antiretroviral (ARV) use was categorised: 1a: triple ARV treatment; 1b: azidothymidine >10 weeks; 2a: azidothymidine ≤10 weeks; 2b: incomplete ARV prophylaxis; 3a: no antenatal ARV and 3b: missing ARV information. Findings were adjusted for non-response, survey design and weighted for live-birth distributions.

Results

Nationally, 32% of live infants were HEI; early mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) was 3.5% (95% CI 2.9% to 4.1%). In total 29.4% HEI were born to mothers on triple ARV treatment (category 1a) 55.6% on prophylaxis (1b, 2a, 2b), 9.5% received no antenatal ARV (3a) and 5.5% had missing ARV information (3b). Controlling for other factors groups, 1b and 2a had similar MTCT to 1a (Ref; adjusted OR (AOR) for 1b, 0.98, 0.52 to 1.83; and 2a, 1.31, 0.69 to 2.48). MTCT was higher in group 2b (AOR 3.68, 1.69 to 7.97). Within group 3a, early MTCT was highest among breastfeeding mothers 11.50% (4.67% to 18.33%) for exclusive breast feeding, 11.90% (7.45% to 16.35%) for mixed breast feeding, and 3.45% (0.53% to 6.35%) for no breast feeding). Antiretroviral therapy or >10 weeks prophylaxis negated this difference (MTCT 3.94%, 1.98% to 5.90%; 2.07%, 0.55% to 3.60% and 2.11%, 1.28% to 2.95%, respectively).

Conclusions

SA, a high-HIV-prevalence middle income country achieved <5% MTCT by 4–8 weeks post partum. The long-term impact on PMTCT on HIV-free survival needs urgent assessment.

Direct detection of markers associated with Neisseria gonorrhoeae antimicrobial resistance in New Zealand using residual DNA from the Cobas 4800 CT/NG NAAT assay

OBJECTIVES

To use nucleic acid amplification techniques (NAAT) for detection of markers associated with gonococcal antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in non-cultured clinical samples to enhance surveillance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae AMR in New Zealand.

METHODS

A total of 198 clinical samples from patients living in two cities, Wellington and Auckland and the more rural region of Gisborne, New Zealand, which were positive for N. gonorrhoeae by the Cobas 4800 were tested for three markers that predict reduced susceptibility or resistance to three antibiotics. Residual DNA extracts from the Cobas 4800 NG/CT test were tested for a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the gyrA gene at codon 91 associated with quinolone resistance; a sequence on the plasmid in penicillinase-producing N. gonorrhoeae (PPNG) which confers resistance to penicillin and the mosaic penA sequence associated with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins in N. gonorrhoeae.

RESULTS

A total of 186/198 (94%) of the samples provided a valid result on gyrA genotyping, confirming the utility of N. gonorrhoeae DNA extracted by the Roche Cobas 4800 CT/NG test for subsequent detection of AMR markers. The NAAT results for Wellington, Auckland and Gisborne, respectively, showed that 77%, 33% and 32% of samples had the marker associated with quinolone resistance, while 4%, 15% and 0% were positive for the PPNG plasmid marker, and 9%, 5% and 0% samples were positive for mosaic penA sequence.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of residual clinical DNA samples from the Cobas 4800 CT/NG test proved an efficient and effective method for performing AMR genotyping. These data also show for the first time the presence of gonococci with a mosaic penA sequence in New Zealand. Overall, the results further highlight the potential of molecular methods to aid N. gonorrhoeae AMR surveillance, particularly for regions where gonococcal culture is no longer performed.