Nomogram basing pre-treatment parameters predicting early response for locally advanced rectal cancer with neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone: a subgroup efficacy analysis of FOWARC study

Clinico-pathological predictors of clinical complete response in rectal cancer

PURPOSE

Prediction of clinical complete response in rectal cancer before neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy treatment enables treatment selection. Patients predicted to have complete response could have chemo-radiotherapy, and others could have additional doublet chemotherapy at this stage of their treatment to improve their overall outcome. This work investigates the role of clinical variables in predicting clinical complete response.

METHOD

Using the UK-based OnCoRe database (2008 to 2019), we performed a propensity-score matched study of 322 patients who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. We collected pre-treatment clinic-pathological, inflammatory and radiotherapy-related characteristics. We determined the odds for the occurrence of cCR using conditional logistic regression models. We derived the post-model Area under the Curve (AUC) as an indicator of discrimination performance and stated a priori that an AUC of 0.75 or greater was required for potential clinical utility.

RESULTS

Pre-treatment tumour diameter, mrT-stage, haemoglobin, alkaline phosphate and total radiotherapy depths were associated with cCR on univariable and multivariable analysis. Additionally, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil-monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (NMLR), lymphocyte count and albumin were all significantly associated with cCR on multivariable analysis. A nomogram using the above parameters was developed with a resulting ROC AUC of 0.75.

CONCLUSION

We identified routine clinic-pathological, inflammatory and radiotherapy-related variables which are independently associated with cCR. A nomogram was developed to predict cCR. The performance characteristics from this model were on the prior clinical utility threshold. Additional research is required to develop more associated variables to better select patients with rectal cancer undergoing chemoradiotherapy who may benefit from pursuing a W&W strategy.

A nomogram for predicting good response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: a retrospective, double-center, cohort study

AIM

The purpose of this study was to explore the clinical factors associated with achieving good response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and to develop and validate a nomogram.

METHODS

A total of 1724 consecutive LARC patients treated at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from January 2010 to December 2021 were retrospectively evaluated as the training cohort; 267 consecutive LARC patients treated at Zhangzhou Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University during the same period were evaluated as the external 2 cohorts. Based on the pathological results after radical surgery, treatment response was defined as follows: good response, stage ypT0∼2N0M0 and poor response, ypT3∼4N0M0 and/or N positive. Independent influencing factors were analyzed by logistic regression, a nomogram was developed and validated, and the model was evaluated using internal and external data cohorts for validation.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, 46.6% of patients achieved good response after nCRT combined with radical surgery. The rate of the retained anus was higher in the good response group (93.5% vs. 90.7%, P < 0.001). Cox regression analysis showed that the risk of overall survival and disease-free survival was significantly lower among good response patients than poor response patients, HR = 0.204 (95%CI: 0.146-0.287). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed an independent association with 9 clinical factors, including histopathology, and a nomogram with an excellent predictive response was developed accordingly. The C-index of the predictive accuracy of the nomogram was 0.764 (95%CI: 0.742-0.786), the internal validation of the 200 bootstrap replication mean C-index was 0.764, and the external validation cohort showed an accuracy C-index of 0.789 (95%CI: 0.734-0.844), with good accuracy of the model.

CONCLUSION

We identified factors associated with achieving good response in LARC after treatment with nCRT and developed a nomogram to contribute to clinical decision-making.

ERα promotes transcription of tumor suppressor gene ApoA-I by establishing H3K27ac-enriched chromatin microenvironment in breast cancer cells

Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I), the main protein component of high-density lipoprotein (HDL), plays a pivotal role in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT). Previous studies indicated a reduction of serum ApoA-I levels in various types of cancer, suggesting ApoA-I as a potential cancer biomarker. Herein, ectopically overexpressed ApoA-I in MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cells was observed to have antitumor effects, inhibiting cell proliferation and migration. Subsequent studies on the mechanism of expression regulation revealed that estradiol (E2)/estrogen receptor α (ERα) signaling activates ApoA-I gene transcription in breast cancer cells. Mechanistically, our ChIP-seq data showed that ERα directly binds to the estrogen response element (ERE) site within the ApoA-I gene and establishes an acetylation of histone 3 lysine 27 (H3K27ac)‍-enriched chromatin microenvironment. Conversely, Fulvestrant (ICI 182780) treatment blocked ERα binding to ERE within the ApoA-I gene and downregulated the H3K27ac level on the ApoA-I gene. Treatment with p300 inhibitor also significantly decreased the ApoA-I messenger RNA (mRNA) level in MCF7 cells. Furthermore, the analysis of data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) revealed a positive correlation between ERα and ApoA-I expression in breast cancer tissues. Taken together, our study not only revealed the antitumor potential of ApoA-I at the cellular level, but also found that ERα promotes the transcription of ApoA-I gene through direct genomic effects, and p300 may act as a co-activator of ERα in this process.

Early response to upfront neoadjuvant chemotherapy (CAPOX) alone in low- and intermediate-risk rectal cancer: a single-arm phase II trial

BACKGROUND

With local recurrence of rectal cancer continuing to decrease, distant recurrence is becoming a major concern, especially for patients with low- and intermediate-risk stage II/III rectal cancer. Therefore, a new treatment strategy is warranted for these patients. This single-arm phase II trial aimed to assess the effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) in low- and intermediate-risk stage II/III rectal cancer and explore candidate radiological and clinical parameters for early prediction of tumour response after two cycles of CAPOX.

METHODS

Patients with mid-low stage II/III rectal cancer with low and intermediate risk were examined. The primary outcome was defined as a clinicopathological response by integrating tumour longitudinal length reduction (TLLR) on MRI into pathological tumour regression grade (TRG). After completing NCT, patients with TRG0-2 and TRG3 with a TLLR rate greater than 30 per cent were considered to be responders. Secondary outcomes included pathological complete response (pCR), adverse events and local and distant recurrence.

RESULTS

This study enrolled 61 eligible patients. No patient was converted to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy owing to tumour progression. The clinicopathological response and pCR rates were 78.7 and 21.3 per cent respectively. After two cycles of CAPOX, TLLR, TRG on MRI, and mucosal lesion regression grade on endoscopy had potential discriminative ability (area under the curve greater than 0.7) for predicting both clinicopathological and pathological response.

CONCLUSION

NCT alone achieves good tumour response rates in patients with low- and intermediate-risk stage II/III rectal cancer, and predicting tumour response to NCT is feasible at an early treatment phase.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03666442 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I), Immunity, Inflammation and Cancer

Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I), the major protein component of high-density lipoproteins (HDL) is a multifunctional protein, involved in cholesterol traffic and inflammatory and immune response regulation. Many studies revealing alterations of ApoA-I during the development and progression of various types of cancer suggest that serum ApoA-I levels may represent a useful biomarker contributing to better estimation of cancer risk, early cancer diagnosis, follow up, and prognosis stratification of cancer patients. In addition, recent in vitro and animal studies disclose a more direct, tumor suppressive role of ApoA-I in cancer pathogenesis, which involves anti-inflammatory and immune-modulatory mechanisms. Herein, we review recent epidemiologic, clinicopathologic, and mechanistic studies investigating the role of ApoA-I in cancer biology, which suggest that enhancing the tumor suppressive activity of ApoA-I may contribute to better cancer prevention and treatment.

Nomograms for predicting pathological response to neoadjuvant treatments in patients with rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

In recent decades, neoadjuvant therapy (NT) has been the standardized treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Approximately 8%-35% of patients with LARC who received NT were reported to have achieved a complete pathological response (pCR). If the pathological response (PR) can be accurately predicted, these patients may not need surgery. In addition, no response after NT implies that the tumor is destructive, resistant to both chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and prone to having a high metastatic potential. Therefore, developing accurate models to predict PR has great clinical significance and can help achieve individualized treatment in LARC patients.

AIM

To establish nomograms for predicting PR to different NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for patients with LARC.

METHODS

Rectal cancer patients were identified from the database of The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University from January 2012 to December 2016. Logistic regression and nomograms were developed to predict the probability of pCR and good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0 (ypTNM 0-I), respectively, based on pretreatment parameters for all LARC patients. Nomograms were also developed for three NT regimens (capecitabine/deGramont-RT, mFOLFOX6, and mFOLFOX6-RT) to predict pCR probability.

RESULTS

Four hundred and three patients were included in this study; 72 (17.9%) had pCR at the final pathology report, and 177 (43.9%) achieved good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0 (ypTNM 0-I). The nomogram for predicting pCR probability showed that NT regimens, tumor differentiation, mesorectal fascia (MRF) status, and tumor length significantly influenced pCR probability. When predicting the probability of good downstaging, tumor differentiation, MRF status, and clinical T stage were the significant factors. Nomograms were developed based on NT regimens. For the capecitabine/de Gramont-RT group, the multivariate analysis showed that the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was the only significant factor, thus we could not develop a nomogram for this regimen. For the mFOLFOX6-RT group, the analysis showed that the significant factors were tumor length and MRF status; and for the mFOLFOX6 group, the significant factors were tumor length and tumor differentiation.

CONCLUSION

We established accurate nomograms for predicting the PR to preoperative NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for LARC patients.

CEA clearance pattern as a predictor of tumor response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer: a post-hoc analysis of FOWARC trial

BACKGROUND

The clinical factors that accurately predict the response to preoperative treatment in rectal cancer were yet unknown. The carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) clearance pattern during neoadjuvant treatment has been developed and the predictive value explored in rectal cancer patients with elevated CEA levels (> 5 ng/mL).

METHODS

The training cohort was derived from the FOWARC prospective phase III trial, and 71/483 eligible patients were included. The validation cohort consisted of 75/587 consecutive rectal cancer patients from Xiangya Hospital between 2014 and 2015. The kinetic changes in serum CEA were measured at different time points during the neoadjuvant treatment. An exponential trend line was drawn using the CEA values. The patients were categorized into two groups based on the R² value of the trend line, which indicates the correlation coefficient between the exponential graph and measured CEA values: exponential decrease group (0.9 < R² ≤ 1.0) and non-exponential decrease group (R² ≤ 0.9).

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, the patients in the CEA exponential decrease group had significantly high adequate rate of downstaging (ypT0-2N0M0), and pathologic complete response (pCR) rates after neoadjuvant treatment in the training cohort. The predictive values of the CEA clearance pattern for tumor downstaging and pCR were further confirmed in an independent validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The CEA clearance pattern was an independent predictor of tumor response to neoadjuvant treatment in patients with rectal cancer. It might serve as an adjunct in the assessment of complete clinical response and guide individualized treatment strategies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01211210.

Watch-and-Wait as a Therapeutic Strategy in Rectal Cancer

Purpose of Review

Pathological complete response is seen in approximately one fifth of rectal cancer patients following neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Since these patients have excellent oncological outcomes, there has been a rapidly growing interest in organ preservation for those who develop a clinical complete response. We review the watch-and-wait strategy and focus on all aspects of this hot topic, including who should be considered for this approach, how should we identify treatment response and what are the expected outcomes.

Recent Findings

The major challenges in interpreting the data on watch-and-wait are the significant heterogeneity of patients selected for this approach and of methods employed to identify them. The evidence available comes mostly from retrospective cohort studies, but has shown good oncological outcomes, including the rate of successful salvage surgery, locoregional control and overall survival.

Summary

There is currently not enough and not robust enough evidence to support watch-and-wait as a standard approach, outside a clinical trial, for patients achieving clinical complete response following neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Furthermore, there is a lack of data on long-term outcomes. However, the results we have so far are promising, and there is therefore an urgent need for randomised control studies such as the TRIGGER trial to confirm the safety of this strategy.

Nomogram for preoperative estimation of long-term survival of patients who underwent curative resection with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage A1

Background and Aims

This retrospective cohort study developed a prognostic nomogram to predict the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients diagnosed as beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage A1 after resection and evaluated the possibility of using the nomogram as a treatment algorithm reference.

Results

The predictors included in the nomogram were total tumour volume, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class, plasma fibrinogen and portal vein tumour thrombus. Patients diagnosed as beyond A1 were stratified into low-, medium- and high-risk groups using nomogram scores of 0 and 51 with the total points of 225. Patients within A1 exhibited similar recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates compared with the low-risk group. Patients in the medium-risk group exhibited a similar OS but a worse RFS rates compared with patients within A1. The high-risk group was associated with worse RFS and OS rates compared with the patients within A1 (3-year RFS rates, 27.0% vs. 60.3%, P < 0.001; 3-year OS rates, 49.2% vs. 83.1%, P < 0.001).

Methods

A total of 352 HCC patients undergoing curative resection from September 2003 to December 2012 were included to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival after resection. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. A visually orientated nomogram was constructed using a Cox proportional hazards model.

Conclusions

This user-friendly nomogram offers an individualized preoperative recurrence risk estimation and stratification for HCC patients beyond A1 undergoing resection. Resection should be considered the first-line treatment for low-risk patients.

A nomogram predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: implications for organ preservation strategies

PURPOSE

To determine predictors of pathological complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT), and develop a predictive nomogram.

METHODS

A total of 522 locally advanced rectal cancer patients undergoing nCRT and curative resection between 2008 and 2014 were included. Uni- and multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictors of pCR. A nomogram was developed and validated by internal (n=425) and external validation (n=97).

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 55 months, pCR was associated with better 5-year overall and disease-free survival, distant control, but similar local control. Logistic regression showed that post-CRT distance from the anal verge (OR =0.840, P = 0.022), post-CRT tumor size (OR = 0.565, P = 0.003), post-CRT circumferential extent of tumor (OR = 0.021, P < 0.001), pre-CRT CEA level (OR = 2.004, P = 0.033), and post-CRT CEA level (OR = 3.767, P = 0.038) were independently associated with pCR. A nomogram was developed with a C-index of 0.81 and 0.75 on internal and external validation, respectively.

CONCLUSION

pCR was associated with better long-term outcome. A nomogram was successfully developed to predict pCR. It could support decision-making in organ preservation strategies.