Age-structured modeling reveals long-term declines in the natality of western Steller sea lions

Fasting durations of Steller sea lion pups vary among subpopulations-evidence from two plasma metabolites

Geographic differences in population growth trends are well-documented in Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), a species of North Pacific pinniped listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1990 following a marked decline in population abundance that began during the 1970s. As population growth is intrinsically linked to pup production and survival, examining factors related to pup physiological condition provides useful information to management authorities regarding potential drivers of regional differences. During dam foraging trips, pups predictably transition among three fasting phases, distinguished by the changes in the predominant metabolic byproduct. We used standardized ranges of two plasma metabolites (blood urea nitrogen and β-hydroxybutyrate) to assign pups to fasting categories (n = 1528, 1990-2016, 12 subpopulations): Recently Fed-Phase I (digestion/assimilation-expected hepatic/muscle glycogen usage), Phase II (expected lipid utilization), transitioning between Phases II-III (expected lipid utilization with increased protein reliance), or Phase III (expected protein catabolism). As anticipated, the majority of pups were classified as Recently Fed-Phase I (overall mean proportion = 0.72) and few pups as Phase III (overall mean proportion = 0.04). By further comparing pups in Short (Recently Fed-Phase II) and Long (all other pups) duration fasts, we identified three subpopulations with significantly (P < 0.03) greater proportions of pups dependent upon endogenous sources of energy for extended periods, during a life stage of somatic growth and development: the 1) central (0.27 ± 0.09) and 2) western (0.36 ± 0.13) Aleutian Island (declining population trend) and 3) southern Southeast Alaska (0.32 ± 0.06; increasing population trend) subpopulations had greater Long fast proportions than the eastern Aleutian Islands (0.10 ± 0.05; stabilized population). Due to contrasting population growth trends among these highlighted subpopulations over the past 50+ years, both density-independent and density-dependent factors likely influence the dam foraging trip duration, contributing to longer fasting durations for pups at some rookeries.

Pathological findings and survey for pathogens associated with reproductive failure in perinatal Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus

Steller sea lions (SSLs) Eumetopias jubatus experienced a population decline in the 1960s, leading to the listing of the western stock as endangered and the eastern stock as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. A decrease of births in the western stock beginning in the late 1960s indicates that reproductive failure may have contributed to the decline. We evaluated the role pathogens play in spontaneous abortions, premature births and neonatal deaths in SSLs. Archived tissues from carcasses (n = 19) collected in Alaska from 2002 to 2015 were tested by PCR for Coxiella burnetii, Brucella spp., Chlamydia and morbilliviruses. Animals examined included 47% premature pups, 32% aborted fetuses, 11% neonates and 11% intrauterine fetuses. Gross necropsy and histology findings were summarized in the context of the PCR findings. Tissues were negative for Chlamydia and C. burnetii. Brucella spp. were detected in the lung tissues of 3 animals, including 1 positive for the ST27 strain, the first detection of Brucella spp. DNA in SSLs. Phocine distemper virus was detected in 3 animals in 2 skin lesions and 1 placenta by hemi-nested diagnostic qRT-PCR. Both skin and the placental lesions had vesiculoulcerative changes, and 1 skin lesion contained inclusion bodies in syncytia and upon histologic examination, suggesting that the lesions may be associated with an infection reminiscent of phocine distemper virus, the first in SSLs. We highlight the continuing need for disease surveillance programs to improve our understanding of the prevalence and potential population impacts of these infectious disease agents for pinnipeds in Alaskan waters.

Stranding trends of Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus 1990-2015

Distinct population segments of Steller sea lion (SSL) Eumetopias jubatus have experienced different population trends over the last 5 decades, rendering the need for retrospective study. By identifying long-term stranding trends of SSLs we can develop a better understanding of factors contributing to mortality that may affect SSL population dynamics. We characterized spatial and temporal trends of SSL strandings (n = 1507) in Alaska, Oregon, and Washington, USA, over a 25 yr period. Stranding reports were obtained from the Alaska and Northwest Region’s Marine Mammal Stranding Networks. Temporal trends were assessed by identifying seasonal patterns across all years (1990-2015), analyzing sex, age class, body length, and characterizing signs of human interaction including factors contributing to mortality. An apparent increase in strandings occurred after 2000, likely due to increased stranding response effort resulting from increased federal grant awards. Adult males were the most frequently stranded sex and age class in the Alaska (AK) and Northwest (NW) Regions. Clear seasonality trends were evident, with the greatest reported stranding occurrences during the spring and summer. Gunshot wounds and fishery interactions accounted for a large proportion (90%) of human interaction cases. In Alaska, the southeast region had the highest number of strandings. In the NW Region, Oregon had the highest documented strandings. Despite caveats associated with stranding data, our findings suggest rapid timing of continued stranding response is imperative for a better understanding of cause-specific mortality trends and other factors contributing to stranding events.

Juvenile Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) utilization distributions in the Gulf of Alaska

BACKGROUND

A utilization distribution quantifies the temporal and spatial probability of space use for individuals or populations. These patterns in movement arise from individuals' internal state and from their response to the external environment, and thus can provide insights for assessing factors associated with the management of threatened populations. The Western Distinct Population Segment of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) has declined to approximately 20% of levels encountered 40 years ago. At the height of the decline, juvenile survival appeared to be depressed and currently there is evidence that juvenile mortality due to predation may be constraining recovery in some regions. Therefore, our objectives were to identify what spaces are biologically important to juvenile Steller sea lions in the Kenai Fjords and Prince William Sound regions of the Gulf of Alaska.

METHODS

We examined geospatial location data from juvenile sea lions tagged between 2000 and 2014 (n = 84) and derived individual and pooled-population utilization distributions (UDs) from their movements. Core areas were defined from the UDs using an individual-based approach; this quantitatively confirmed that all individuals in our sample exhibited concentrated use within their home range (95% UD). Finally, we explored if variation in UD characteristics were associated with sex, season, age, or region.

RESULTS

We found evidence that individual juvenile home ranges were region and sex-specific, with males having larger home ranges on average. Core space characteristics were also sex-specific, and exhibited seasonal patterns of reduced size, increased proximity to haulouts, and increased intensity of use in the summer, but only in the Kenai Fjords-Gulf of Alaska region.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the areas of biological importance during this vulnerable life history stage, and the demographic, seasonal, and spatial factors associated with variation in movement patterns for a marine mesopredator. This can be useful information for promoting species recovery, and for future efforts to understand ecological patterns such as predator-prey interactions.

Serum estradiol and progesterone profiles during estrus, pseudopregnancy, and active gestation in Steller sea lions

While the proximate driver behind the decline of the Western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus, >80% since 1970s) is likely multifactorial, the population reduction may have been powered by a decrease in fecundity. A harvest of Steller sea lions in the 1970s and 80s revealed a 30% reduction in the proportion of pregnant females from early (October-November) to late gestation (April-May). Identification and quantification of these reproductive failures are difficult when we lack species-specific data on endocrinology associated with discrete stages of the reproductive cycle (i.e., estrus, implantation, and gestation). We tracked changes in serum estradiol and progesterone in three adult female Steller sea lions from 2011 to 2015. In all years and most females, a discrete increase in estradiol was observed during the breeding season (June-August), indicative of estrus. Estradiol concentrations from October to May in a pregnant female compared to her corresponding values when non-pregnant did not consistently differ through gestation. An elevation in progesterone was observed in all females and all years beginning approximately in June and lasting through November. This likely results from progesterone production by the corpus luteum in both pregnant and pseudopregnant females. Serum progesterone shows promise as a diagnostic tool to identify pregnancy during months 3-5 (December-February) of the 8-month active gestation following embryonic implantation. This study provides ranges of key hormones during estrus, embryonic diapause/pseudopregnancy, and gestation in pregnant and non-pregnant females for studying reproduction in Steller sea lions.

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

Physiological predictors of long-term survival in juvenile Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

This study builds on a continued effort to document potential long-term research impacts on the individual, as well as to identify potential markers of survival for use in a field framework. The Transient Juvenile Steller sea lion (TJ) project was developed as a novel framework to gain access to wild individuals. We used three analyses to evaluate and predict long-term survival in temporarily captive sea lions (n = 45) through Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population modelling techniques. The first analysis investigated survival in relation to the observed responses to handling stress through changes in six principal blood parameters over the duration of captivity. The second analysis evaluated survival compared with body condition and mass at entry and exit from captivity. Finally, the third analysis sought to evaluate the efficacy of single-point sampling to project similar survival trends for use in field sampling operations. Results from a priori models ranked through Akaike information criterion model selection methods indicated that mass gains (4.2 ± 12%) over captivity and increases in leucocytes (WBC, 1.01 ± 3.54 × 10(3)/mm(3)) resulted in a higher average survival rate (>3 years). Minor support was identified for the single-point measures of exit mass and entry WBC. A higher exit mass predicted a higher survival rate, whereas a higher WBC predicted a lower survival rate. While changes in mass and WBC appear to be the best predictors of survival when measured as a change over time, single-point sampling may still be an effective way to improve estimates of population health.

Age specific survival rates of Steller sea lions at rookeries with divergent population trends in the Russian Far East

After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas.

A longitudinal study of Steller sea lion natality rates in the Gulf of Alaska with comparisons to census data

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers in the Western Distinct Population Segment are beginning to recover following the dramatic decline that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. Low female reproductive rates (natality) may have contributed to the decline and remain an issue of concern for this population. During the 2000s we found high natality among Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska indicating a healthy population. This study extends these previous estimates over an additional three years and tests for interannual variations and long-term trends. We further examine the proportions of pups to adult females observed on the rookery and nearby haulouts during the birthing season to assess whether census data can be used to estimate natality. Open robust design multistate models were built and tested using Program MARK to estimate survival, resighting, and state transition probabilities in addition to other parameters dependent on whether or not a female gave birth in the previous year. Natality was estimated at 70% with some evidence of interannual variation but a long-term increasing or decreasing trend was not supported by the data. Bootstrap and regression comparisons of census data with natality estimates revealed no correlation between the two methods suggesting that census data are not an appropriate proxy for natality in this species. Longitudinal studies of individual animals are an appropriate method for estimating vital rates in species with variable detection over time such as the Steller sea lion. This work indicates that natality remains high in this region and is consistent with a population in recovery.

The effect of organohalogen contaminants on western Steller sea lion survival and movement in the Russian Far East

The western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) have experienced dramatic declines since the 1960s, particularly in the western Alaskan and Asian portions, which have continued to decline or stabilized at low levels. Multiple causes for this decline have been proposed and may include anthropogenic contamination from organohalogen contaminants (OCs). These include polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), which have not been ruled out as a potential cause for the lack of recovery. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of OCs on survival and movement probabilities estimated in program MARK using resighting data collected from 2003 to 2009. PCBs and DDTs were measured in whole blood from 136 (74 males and 62 females) individually marked, free-ranging pups from four Russian Far East rookeries. The mean concentration of ∑PCB and ∑DDT was 4.25±5.12 and 3.22±4.28 ng g(-1) ww (n=136), respectively, and the average ∑PCB and ∑DDT concentration for those above the aggregate mean (n=44) was 9.25±6.55 and 7.65±5.21 ng g(-1) ww, and those below the aggregate mean (n=92) the concentration was 1.86±0.89 and 1.11±0.65 ng g(-1) ww, respectively. The lowest estimated probabilities of survival occurred in the first year, ranging from 38% to 74%, but increased for ages 1-9, ranging from 82% to 94%. The greatest movement occurred from Medny Island west toward the Kamchatka Peninsula (33%) and to Bering Island (18%), and low movement estimates for other natal rookeries was largely due to minimal resighting effort. The estimated probabilities of resighting varied by location (48%-87%), but had greater precision than survival or movement parameters. Survival and movement were most affected by age and location rather than OCs.

Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species

We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))—and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

Inter-population movements of steller sea lions in Alaska with implications for population separation

Genetic studies and differing population trends support the separation of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) into a western distinct population segment (WDPS) and an eastern DPS (EDPS) with the dividing line between populations at 144° W. Despite little exchange for thousands of years, the gap between the breeding ranges narrowed during the past 15–30 years with the formation of new rookeries near the DPS boundary. We analyzed >22,000 sightings of 4,172 sea lions branded as pups in each DPS from 2000–2010 to estimate probabilities of a sea lion born in one DPS being seen within the range of the other DPS (either ‘West’ or ‘East’). Males from both populations regularly traveled across the DPS boundary; probabilities were highest at ages 2–5 and for males born in Prince William Sound and southern Southeast Alaska. The probability of WDPS females being in the East at age 5 was 0.067 but 0 for EDPS females which rarely traveled to the West. Prince William Sound-born females had high probabilities of being in the East during breeding and non-breeding seasons. We present strong evidence that WDPS females have permanently emigrated to the East, reproducing at two ‘mixing zone’ rookeries. We documented breeding bulls that traveled >6,500 km round trip from their natal rookery in southern Alaska to the northern Bering Sea and central Aleutian Islands and back within one year. WDPS animals began moving East in the 1990s, following steep population declines in the central Gulf of Alaska. Results of our study, and others documenting high survival and rapid population growth in northern Southeast Alaska suggest that conditions in this mixing zone region have been optimal for sea lions. It is unclear whether eastward movement across the DPS boundary is due to less-optimal conditions in the West or a reflection of favorable conditions in the East.

Maternal Steller sea lion diets elevate fetal mercury concentrations in an area of population decline

Total mercury concentrations ([THg]) measured in western Aleutian Island Steller sea lion pup hair were the highest maximum [THg] documented in this endangered species to date. Some pups exceeded concentrations at which other fish-eating mammals can exhibit adverse neurological and reproductive effects (21% and 15% pups above 20 and 30 μg/g in hair, respectively). Of particular concern is fetal exposure to mercury during a particularly vulnerable stage of neurological development in late gestation. Hair and blood [THg] were highly correlated and 20% of pups sampled in the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska exceeded mammalian risk thresholds established for each of these tissues. Higher nitrogen isotope ratios suggested that pups accumulated the highest [THg] when their dams fed on higher trophic level prey during late gestation.

Predation on an upper trophic marine predator, the Steller sea lion: evaluating high juvenile mortality in a density dependent conceptual framework

The endangered western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) – the largest of the eared seals – has declined by 80% from population levels encountered four decades ago. Current overall trends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Aleutian Islands appear neutral with strong regional heterogeneities. A published inferential model has been used to hypothesize a continuous decline in natality and depressed juvenile survival during the height of the decline in the mid-late 1980's, followed by the recent recovery of juvenile survival to pre-decline rates. However, these hypotheses have not been tested by direct means, and causes underlying past and present population trajectories remain unresolved and controversial. We determined post-weaning juvenile survival and causes of mortality using data received post-mortem via satellite from telemetry transmitters implanted into 36 juvenile Steller sea lions from 2005 through 2011. Data show high post-weaning mortality by predation in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. To evaluate the impact of such high levels of predation, we developed a conceptual framework to integrate density dependent with density independent effects on vital rates and population trajectories. Our data and model do not support the hypothesized recent recovery of juvenile survival rates and reduced natality. Instead, our data demonstrate continued low juvenile survival in the Prince William Sound and Kenai Fjords region of the Gulf of Alaska. Our results on contemporary predation rates combined with the density dependent conceptual framework suggest predation on juvenile sea lions as the largest impediment to recovery of the species in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. The framework also highlights the necessity for demographic models based on age-structured census data to incorporate the differential impact of predation on multiple vital rates.

Overfishing of small pelagic fishes increases trophic overlap between immature and mature striped dolphins in the Mediterranean Sea

The interactions among diet, ecology, physiology, and biochemistry affect N and C stable isotope signatures in animal tissues. Here, we examined if ecological segregation among animals in relation to sex and age existed by analyzing the signatures of δ(15)N and δ(13)C in the muscle of Western Mediterranean striped dolphins. Moreover, we used a Bayesian mixing model to study diet composition and investigated potential dietary changes over the last two decades in this population. For this, we compared isotope signatures in samples of stranded dolphins obtained during two epizootic events occurring in 1990 and 2007-2008. Mean δ(13)C values for females and males were not significantly different, but age-related variation indicated δ(13)C enrichment in both sexes, suggesting that females and males most likely fed in the same general areas, increasing their consumption of benthic prey with age. Enrichment of δ(15)N was only observed in females, suggesting a preference for larger or higher trophic level prey than males, which could reflect different nutritional requirements. δ(13)C values showed no temporal variation, although the mean δ(15)N signature decreased from 1990 to 2007-2008, which could indicate a dietary shift in the striped dolphin over the last two decades. The results of SIAR indicated that in 1990, hake and sardine together contributed to 60% on the diet of immature striped dolphins, and close to 90% for mature striped dolphins. Conversely, the diet of both groups in 2007-2008 was more diverse, as hake and sardine contributed to less than 40% of the entire diet. These results suggest a dietary change that was possibly related to changes in food availability, which is consistent with the depletion of sardine stocks by fishing.

High natality rates of endangered Steller sea lions in Kenai Fjords, Alaska and perceptions of population status in the Gulf of Alaska

Steller sea lions experienced a dramatic population collapse of more than 80% in the late 1970s through the 1990s across their western range in Alaska. One of several competing hypotheses about the cause holds that reduced female reproductive rates (natality) substantively contributed to the decline and continue to limit recovery in the Gulf of Alaska despite the fact that there have been very few attempts to directly measure natality in this species. We conducted a longitudinal study of natality among individual Steller sea lions (n = 151) at a rookery and nearby haulouts in Kenai Fjords, Gulf of Alaska during 2003–2009. Multi-state models were built and tested in Program MARK to estimate survival, resighting, and state transition probabilities dependent on whether or not a female gave birth in the previous year. The models that most closely fit the data suggested that females which gave birth had a higher probability of surviving and giving birth in the following year compared to females that did not give birth, indicating some females are more fit than others. Natality, estimated at 69%, was similar to natality for Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska prior to their decline (67%) and much greater than the published estimate for the 2000s (43%) which was hypothesized from an inferential population dynamic model. Reasons for the disparity are discussed, and could be resolved by additional longitudinal estimates of natality at this and other rookeries over changing ocean climate regimes. Such estimates would provide an appropriate assessment of a key parameter of population dynamics in this endangered species which has heretofore been lacking. Without support for depressed natality as the explanation for a lack of recovery of Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska, alternative hypotheses must be more seriously considered.

Bayesian salamanders: analysing the demography of an underground population of the European plethodontid Speleomantes strinatii with state-space modelling

BACKGROUND

It has been suggested that Plethodontid salamanders are excellent candidates for indicating ecosystem health. However, detailed, long-term data sets of their populations are rare, limiting our understanding of the demographic processes underlying their population fluctuations. Here we present a demographic analysis based on a 1996-2008 data set on an underground population of Speleomantes strinatii (Aellen) in NW Italy. We utilised a Bayesian state-space approach allowing us to parameterise a stage-structured Lefkovitch model. We used all the available population data from annual temporary removal experiments to provide us with the baseline data on the numbers of juveniles, subadults and adult males and females present at any given time.

RESULTS

Sampling the posterior chains of the converged state-space model gives us the likelihood distributions of the state-specific demographic rates and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Analysing the resulting parameterised Lefkovitch matrices shows that the population growth is very close to 1, and that at population equilibrium we expect half of the individuals present to be adults of reproductive age which is what we also observe in the data. Elasticity analysis shows that adult survival is the key determinant for population growth.

CONCLUSION

This analysis demonstrates how an understanding of population demography can be gained from structured population data even in a case where following marked individuals over their whole lifespan is not practical.

A model to predict fasting capacities and utilization of body energy stores in weaned Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) during periods of reduced prey availability

The population decline of Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776)) may be linked to a decline in juvenile survivorship. Limitations in prey availability may contribute to the decline, thus it is important to understand fasting capacities of Steller sea lions. For most mammals, fat catabolism is the preferred energetic pathway to ensure that protein is spared. However, marine mammals also have a conflicting requirement to conserve fat because the main site of fat storage is the blubber layer, which is also their primary thermal barrier when at sea. We developed a dynamic state variable model to demonstrate how protein and fat reserve utilization and maximum fasting duration are influenced by body condition and time spent foraging. This model was parameterized with respect to conditions faced by juvenile and subadult Steller sea lions foraging unsuccessfully during a period of reduced prey availability. The model accurately predicted changes in fat and protein mass of juvenile and subadult Steller sea lions fasting in captivity. Furthermore, the model demonstrated that body lipid content, body mass, and the proportion of time spent in water influence energy reserve catabolism and maximum fasting durations. Consequently, small, lean individuals are particularly susceptible to reductions in prey availability.

Regional differences in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of oceanographic habitat used by Steller sea lions

Over the past three decades, the decline and altered spatial distribution of the western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska have been attributed to changes in the distribution or abundance of their prey due to the cumulative effects of fisheries and environmental perturbations. During this period, dietary prey occurrence and diet diversity were related to population decline within metapopulation regions of the western stock of Steller sea lions, suggesting that environmental conditions may be variable among regions. The objective of this study, therefore, was to examine regional differences in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of oceanographic habitat used by Steller sea lions within the context of recent measures of diet diversity and population trajectories. Habitat use was assessed by deploying satellite-depth recorders and satellite relay data loggers on juvenile Steller sea lions (n = 45) over a five-year period (2000-2004) within four regions of the western stock, including the western, central, and eastern Aleutian Islands, and central Gulf of Alaska. Areas used by sea lions during summer months (June, July, and August) were demarcated using satellite telemetry data and characterized by environmental variables (sea surface temperature [SST] and chlorophyll a [chl a]), which possibly serve as proxies for environmental processes or prey. Spatial patterns of SST diversity and Steller sea lion population trends among regions were fairly consistent with trends reported for diet studies, possibly indicating a link between environmental diversity, prey diversity, and distribution or abundance of Steller sea lions. Overall, maximum spatial heterogeneity coupled with minimal temporal variability of SST appeared to be beneficial for Steller sea lions. In contrast, these patterns were not consistent for chl a, and there appeared to be an ecological threshold. Understanding how Steller sea lions respond to measures of environmental heterogeneity will ultimately be useful for implementing ecosystem management approaches and developing additional conservation strategies.

Causes and consequences of marine mammal population declines in southwest Alaska: a food-web perspective

Populations of sea otters, seals and sea lions have collapsed across much of southwest Alaska over the past several decades. The sea otter decline set off a trophic cascade in which the coastal marine ecosystem underwent a phase shift from kelp forests to deforested sea urchin barrens. This interaction in turn affected the distribution, abundance and productivity of numerous other species. Ecological consequences of the pinniped declines are largely unknown. Increased predation by transient (marine mammal-eating) killer whales probably caused the sea otter declines and may have caused the pinniped declines as well. Springer et al. proposed that killer whales, which purportedly fed extensively on great whales, expanded their diets to include a higher percentage of sea otters and pinnipeds following a sharp reduction in great whale numbers from post World War II industrial whaling. Critics of this hypothesis claim that great whales are not now and probably never were an important nutritional resource for killer whales. We used demographic/energetic analyses to evaluate whether or not a predator-prey system involving killer whales and the smaller marine mammals would be sustainable without some nutritional contribution from the great whales. Our results indicate that while such a system is possible, it could only exist under a narrow range of extreme conditions and is therefore highly unlikely.

Multiple hypothesis testing and the declining-population paradigm in Steller sea lions

We describe a novel spatially and temporally detailed approach for determining the cause or causes of a population decline, using the western Alaskan population of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) as an example. Existing methods are mostly based on regression, which limits their utility when there are multiple hypotheses to consider and the data are sparse and noisy. Our likelihood-based approach is unbiased with regard to sample size, and its posterior probability landscape allows for the separate consideration of magnitude and certainty for multiple factors simultaneously. As applied to Steller sea lions, the approach uses a stochastic population model in which the vital rates (fecundity, pup survival, non-pup survival) at a particular rookery in each year are functions of one or more local conditions (total prey availability, species composition of available prey, fisheries activity, predation risk indices). Three vital rates and four scaling functions produce twelve nonexclusive hypotheses, of which we considered 10; we assumed a priori that fecundity would not be affected by fishery activities or predation. The likelihood of all the rookery- and year-specific census data was calculated by averaging across sample paths, using backward iteration and a beta-binomial structure for observation error. We computed the joint maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of parameters associated with each hypothesis and constructed marginal likelihood curves to examine the support for each effect. We found strong support for a positive effect of total prey availability on pup recruitment, negative effects of prey species composition (pollock fraction) on fecundity and pup survival, and a positive effect of harbor seal density (our inverse proxy for predation risk) on non-pup survival. These results suggest a natural framework for adaptive management; for example, the areas around some of the rookeries could be designated as experimental zones where fishery quotas are contingent upon the results of pre-fishing season survey trawls. We contrast our results with those of previous studies, demonstrating the importance of testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously and quantitatively when investigating the causes of a population decline.

Shifting trends: detecting environmentally mediated regulation in long-lived marine vertebrates using time-series data

Assessing the status and trends in animal populations is essential for effective species conservation and management practices. However, unless time-series abundance data demonstrate rapid and reliable fluctuations, objective appraisal of directionality of trends is problematic. We adopted a multiple-working hypotheses approach based on information-theoretic and Bayesian multi-model inference to examine the population trends and form of intrinsic regulation demonstrated by a long-lived species, the southern elephant seal. We also determined the evidence for density dependence in 11 other well-studied marine mammal species. (1) We tested the type of population regulation for elephant seals from Marion Island (1986-2004) and from 11 other marine mammal species, and (2) we described the trends and behavior of the 19-year population time series at Marion Island to identify changes in population trends. We contrasted five plausible trend models using information-theoretic and Bayesian-inference estimates of model parsimony. Our analyses identified two distinct phases of population growth for this population with the inflexion occurring in 1998. Thus, the population decreased between 1986 and 1997 (-3.7% per annum) and increased between 1997 and 2004 (1.9% per annum). An index of environmental stochasticity, the Southern Oscillation Index, explained some of the variance in r and N. We determined analytically that there was good evidence for density dependence in the Marion Island population and that density dependence was widespread among marine mammal species (67% of species showed evidence for population regulation). This approach demonstrates the potential functionality of a relatively simple technique that can be applied to short time series to identify the type of regulation, and the uncertainty associated with the phenomenon, operating in populations of large mammals.