Trophic mismatch requires seasonal heterogeneity of warming

The pace of shifting seasons in lakes

Lake ecosystems are vulnerable to seasonal thermal cues, with subtle alterations in the timing of seasonal temperatures having a dramatic influence on aquatic species. Here, a measure of seasonal change in temperature is used to describe the pace of shifting seasons in lakes. Since 1980 spring and summer temperatures in Northern Hemisphere lakes have arrived earlier (2.0- and 4.3-days decade^-1, respectively), whilst the arrival of autumn has been delayed (1.5-days decade^-1) and the summer season lengthened (5.6-days decade^-1). This century, under a high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, current spring and summer temperatures will arrive even earlier (3.3- and 8.3-days decade^-1, respectively), autumn temperatures will arrive later (3.1-days decade^-1), and the summer season will lengthen further (12.1-days decade^-1). These seasonal alterations will be much slower under a low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario. Changes in seasonal temperatures will benefit some species, by prolonging the growing season, but negatively impact others, by leading to phenological mismatches in critical activities.

Effects of temporal abiotic drivers on the dynamics of an allometric trophic network model

Current ecological research and ecosystem management call for improved understanding of the abiotic drivers of community dynamics, including temperature effects on species interactions and biomass accumulation. Allometric trophic network (ATN) models, which simulate material (carbon) transfer in trophic networks from producers to consumers based on mass‐specific metabolic rates, provide an attractive framework to study consumer–resource interactions from organisms to ecosystems. However, the developed ATN models rarely consider temporal changes in some key abiotic drivers that affect, for example, consumer metabolism and producer growth. Here, we evaluate how temporal changes in carrying capacity and light‐dependent growth rate of producers and in temperature‐dependent mass‐specific metabolic rate of consumers affect ATN model dynamics, namely seasonal biomass accumulation, productivity, and standing stock biomass of different trophic guilds, including age‐structured fish communities. Our simulations of the pelagic Lake Constance food web indicated marked effects of temporally changing abiotic parameters on seasonal biomass accumulation of different guild groups, particularly among the lowest trophic levels (primary producers and invertebrates). While the adjustment of average irradiance had minor effect, increasing metabolic rate associated with 1–2°C temperature increase led to a marked decline of larval (0‐year age) fish biomass, but to a substantial biomass increase of 2‐ and 3‐year‐old fish that were not predated by ≥4‐year‐old top predator fish, European perch (Perca fluviatilis). However, when averaged across the 100 simulation years, the inclusion of seasonality in abiotic drivers caused only minor changes in standing stock biomasses and productivity of different trophic guilds. Our results demonstrate the potential of introducing seasonality in and adjusting the average values of abiotic ATN model parameters to simulate temporal fluctuations in food‐web dynamics, which is an important step in ATN model development aiming to, for example, assess potential future community‐level responses to ongoing environmental changes.

Immunity and Growth Plasticity of Asian Short-Toed Lark Nestlings in Response to Changes in Food Conditions: Can It Buffer the Challenge of Climate Change-Induced Trophic Mismatch?

Passerine nestlings frequently suffer from sub-optimal food conditions due to climate change-induced trophic mismatch between the nestlings and their optimal food resources. The ability of nestlings to buffer this challenge is less well understood. We hypothesized that poor food conditions might induce a higher immune response and lower growth rate of nestlings, and such physiological plasticity is conducive to nestling survival. To test this, we examined how food (grasshopper nymphs) abundance affects the expression of interferon-γ (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-1 β (IL-1β) genes, plasma IGF-1 levels, body mass, and fledging rates in wild Asian short-toed lark (Alaudala cheleensis) nestlings. Linear mixed models revealed that nymph biomass significantly influenced the expression of IFN-γ, TNF-α, and IL-1β genes, and the level of plasma IGF-1. The expressions of IFN-γ, TNF-α, and IL-1β genes were negatively correlated with nymph biomass and plasma IGF-1 level. Plasma IGF-1 level, nestling body mass growth rate, was positively correlated with nymph biomass. Despite a positive correlation between the nestling fledge rate and nymph biomass, more than 60% of nestlings fledged when nymph biomass was at the lowest level. These results suggest that immunity and growth plasticity of nestlings may be an adaptation for birds to buffer the negative effects of trophic mismatch.

Can young-of-the-year invasive fish keep up with young-of-the-year native fish? A comparison of feeding rates between invasive sticklebacks and whitefish

Invasion of non-native species might alter food web structure and the strength of top-down control within lake ecosystems. As top-down control exerted by fish populations is often dominated by young of the year fish, the impact of new fish species might depend on the feeding rates of the juvenile fish. Here we provide comparative analyses of feeding rates of juvenile whitefish (Coregonus wartmanni) - a native and specialised planktivore and an invasive generalist (sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus). We studied feedings rates of whitefish and sticklebacks in aquaria experiments using 2 cm to 8 cm fish feeding on seven zooplankton species common to Lake Constance. As whitefish hatch several months earlier than sticklebacks, 0+ whitefish are larger than 0+ sticklebacks throughout the year and hence are predicted to have higher feeding rates on especially large zooplankton species. We show that sticklebacks as small as 2 cm were able to feed on the largest zooplankton species of Lake Constance. Further, stickleback feeding rates were similar to both the same size 0+ whitefish and the larger 0+ whitefish co-occurring with smaller 0+ sticklebacks. Hence, 0+ sticklebacks will compete with 0+ whitefish for the same zooplankton species, therefore the invasion of sticklebacks is unlikely to change the relative feeding pressure by individual 0+ fish on zooplankton species.

The underlying causes and effects of phytoplankton seasonal turnover on resource use efficiency in freshwater lakes

The extent of intra-annual turnover in phytoplankton communities is directly associated with the overall diversity. However, our understanding of the underlying causes and effects of intra-annual turnover remains limited. In this study, we performed a two-season investigation of the phytoplankton composition in the lakes of the Yangtze River catchment in China in spring and summer 2012, which covered a regional spatial scale. We analyzed the Sørensen pairwise dissimilarity (βsor) between the two seasons, their driving factors, and effects on resource use efficiency in phytoplankton. The results showed that the changes in phytoplankton composition from spring to summer were not synchronous among these lakes. The spatial environmental characteristics, temporal changes in environmental variables and the initial phytoplankton composition together explained the variation in βsor for phytoplankton, and their explanatory powers and primary driving variables depended on the phytoplankton taxonomic groups. Among the driving variables, increased nitrogen level and seasonal temperature difference will promote spring-summer community turnover and then improve the phosphorus use efficiency of phytoplankton community. The species diversity of the initial community might increase its stability and slow the spring-summer shift in phytoplankton, especially in cyanobacteria and Chlorophyta. Our study highlights the understanding of the patterns and underlying causes of temporal beta diversity in freshwater phytoplankton communities.

Local and continental-scale controls of the onset of spring phytoplankton blooms: Conclusions from a proxy-based model

A key phenological event in the annual cycle of many pelagic ecosystems is the onset of the spring algal bloom (OAB). Descriptions of the factors controlling the OAB in temperate to polar lakes have been limited to isolated studies of single systems and conceptual models. Here we present a validated modelling approach that, for the first time, enables a quantitative prediction of the OAB and a systematic assessment of the processes controlling its timing on a continental scale. We used a weather-driven, one-dimensional lake model to simulate the seasonal dynamics of the underwater light climate in 16 lake types characterized by the factorial combination of four lake depths with four levels of water transparency. We did so at 1962 locations across Western Europe and over 31 years (1979-2009). Assuming that phytoplankton production is light-limited in winter, we identified four patterns of OAB control across lake types and climate zones. OAB timing is controlled by (i) the timing of ice-off in ice-covered clear or shallow lakes, (ii) the onset of thermal stratification in sufficiently deep and turbid lakes and (iii) the seasonal increase in incident radiation in all other lakes, except for (iv) ice-free, shallow and clear lakes in the south, where phytoplankton is not light-limited. The model predicts that OAB timing should respond to two pervasive environmental changes, global warming and browning, in opposite ways. OAB timing should be highly sensitive to warming in lakes where it is controlled by either ice-off or the onset of stratification, but resilient to warming in lakes where it is controlled by incident radiation. Conversely, OAB timing should be most sensitive to browning where it is controlled by incident radiation, but resilient to browning where it is controlled by ice-off or the onset of stratification. Available lake data are consistent with our findings.

Climate warming restructures an aquatic food web over 28 years

Climate warming can restructure lake food webs if trophic levels differ in their thermal responses, but evidence for these changes and their underlying mechanisms remain scarce in nature. Here we document how warming lake temperatures by up to 2°C, rather than changes in trophic state or fishing effort, have restructured the pelagic food web of a large European lake (Lake Maggiore, Italy). Our approach exploited abundance and biomass data collected weekly to yearly across five trophic levels from 1981 to 2008. Temperature generally had stronger effects on taxa than changes in fish predation or trophic state mediated through primary productivity. Consequently, we found that, as the lake warmed, the food web shifted in numerical abundance towards predators occupying middle trophic positions. Of these taxa, the spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus) most prospered. Bythotrephes strongly limited abundances of the keystone grazer Daphnia, strengthening top-down structuring of the food web. Warmer temperatures partly restructured the food web by advancing peak Bythotrephes densities by approximately 60 days and extending periods of positive population growth by three times. Nonetheless, our results suggested that advances in the timing and size of peak Bythotrephes densities could not outpace changes in the timing and size of peak densities in their Daphnia prey. Our results provide rare evidence from nature as to how long-term warming can favour higher trophic levels, with the potential to strengthen top-down control of food webs.

Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes

Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade⁻¹, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m⁻³ decade⁻¹). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade⁻¹), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade⁻¹ to + 0.65 °C decade⁻¹. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

Global warming may lower thermal barriers against invasive species in freshwater ecosystems - A study from Lake Constance

European freshwater ecosystems are increasingly invaded by exotic animal and plant species. Apart from increased connectivity between previously separated watersheds, the increasing temperature of the hydrosystems favors the spread of exotic species. The freshwater fauna of Central Europe is still shaped by the cold-adapted animal assemblages resulting from the last glaciation. It is less diverse, and the species are putatively less performant competitors, compared to the warm-adapted, species-rich fauna of the Ponto-Caspian realm, from which many current aquatic invaders are coming. Our study analyses potential mechanisms explaining the coexistence between one of the most impacting aquatic invaders of the past decades, the 'killer shrimp' Dikerogammarus villosus and the previously dominating amphipod Gammarus roeselii in Lake Constance, using laboratory predation experiments and field surveys. Our results indicate two key drivers for coexistence: low winter temperatures and the substrate structure of the alga Chara sp. At temperatures below 6 °C, the predation pressure on G. roeselii was strongly reduced; G. roeselii can therefore disperse throughout the littoral in winter, avoiding predation by D. villosus. Artificial heating of a section of the lake shore, however, resulted in local extinction of G. roeselii by D. villosus. The macroalga Chara sp. completely inhibited predation by D. villosus on G. roeselii. Climate change scenarios indicate that global warming might destroy this thermal refuge during winter until 2085. For the survival of G. roeselii it will then be crucial, which part of the Chara population will maintain epigeic plant parts during winter. The complex interplay between thermal and physical refuges for native species in the context of climate change and changing trophic status of freshwater systems, as disentangled by our study, shows that ecosystem management and restoration strategies need to better consider multiple stressors (and their rather complex mitigation strategies).

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs.

Differential responses of body growth to artificial warming between parasitoids and hosts and the consequences for plant seed damage

Temperature increase may disrupt trophic interactions by differentially changing body growth of the species involved. In this study, we tested whether the response of body growth to artificial warming (~2.2 °C) of a solitary koinobiont endo-parasitoid wasp (Pteromalus albipennis, Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) differed from its main host tephritid fly (Tephritis femoralis, Diptera: Tephritidae; pre-dispersal seed predator), and whether the plant seed damage caused by wasp-parasitized and unparasitized maggots (larval flies) were altered by warming. In contrast to the significant and season-dependent effects of warming on body growth of the host tephritid fly reported in one of our previous studies, the effect of artificial warming on body growth was non-significant on the studied wasp. Moreover, the warming effect on seed damage due to unparasitized maggots was significant and varied with season, but the damage by parasitized maggots was not altered by warming. Distinct responses of body growth to warming between parasitoids studied here and hosts assessed in a previous study indicate that temperature increase may differentially affect life history traits of animals along food chains, which is likely to affect trophic interactions.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade^-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade^-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade^-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Persistence in the longitudinal distribution of lotic insects in a changing climate: a tale of two rivers

The longitudinal distribution of many taxa in rivers is influenced by temperature. Here we took advantage of two older datasets on net-spinning caddisflies (Hydropsychidae) from contrasting European rivers to assess changes in species occurrence and relative abundance along the river by resampling the same sites, postulating that an increase in river temperature over the intervening period should have resulted in cool-adapted species retreating into the headwaters and warm adapted species expanding upstream. Distributional changes in the Welsh Usk were slight between 1968/69 and 2010, one rare species appearing at a single headwater site and one warm-adapted species disappearing from the main river. Distributional changes in the French Loire, between 1989-93 and 2005, were similarly modest, with no consistent movement of species up- or downstream. We estimate that the decadal rate of increase in the mean summer daily maximum in the Usk was only 0.1°C at one 'summer cool' headwater site, while a neighbouring 'summer warm' tributary increased by 0.16°C per decade, and the main river by 0.22°C. The Loire is warmer than the Usk and the mean decadal rates of increase, over the period 1989-2005, at three sites along the lower reaches were 0.39, 0.48 and 0.77°C. Increases in stream and river temperature, therefore, were spatially variable and were not associated with consistent upstream movement of species in either of these (very different) rivers. We conclude that either the temperature increases have hitherto been insufficient to affect species distribution or, more speculatively, that it may not be possible for river organisms (that do not respond only to temperature) to move upstream because of a developing spatial mismatch between key habitat characteristics, some of them changing with the climate but others not.