Thermal variability alters the impact of climate warming on consumer-resource systems

Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change

Laboratory measurements of physiological and demographic tolerances are important in understanding the impact of climate change on species diversity; however, it has been recognized that forecasts based solely on these laboratory estimates overestimate risk by omitting the capacity for species to utilize microclimatic variation via behavioral adjustments in activity patterns or habitat choice. The complex, and often context-dependent nature, of microclimate utilization has been an impediment to the advancement of general predictive models. Here, we overcome this impediment and estimate the potential impact of warming on the fitness of ectotherms using a benefit/cost trade-off derived from the simple and broadly documented thermal performance curve and a generalized cost function. Our framework reveals that, for certain environments, the cost of behavioral thermoregulation can be reduced as warming occurs, enabling behavioral buffering (e.g., the capacity for behavior to ameliorate detrimental impacts) and "behavioral rescue" from extinction in extreme cases. By applying our framework to operative temperature and physiological data collected at an extremely fine spatial scale in an African lizard, we show that new behavioral opportunities may emerge. Finally, we explore large-scale geographic differences in the impact of behavior on climate-impact projections using a global dataset of 38 insect species. These multiple lines of inference indicate that understanding the existing relationship between thermal characteristics (e.g., spatial configuration, spatial heterogeneity, and modal temperature) is essential for improving estimates of extinction risk.

Hovering in the heat: effects of environmental temperature on heat regulation in foraging hummingbirds

At high temperature (greater than 40°C) endotherms experience reduced passive heat dissipation (radiation, conduction and convection) and increased reliance on evaporative heat loss. High temperatures challenge flying birds due to heat produced by wing muscles. Hummingbirds depend on flight for foraging, yet inhabit hot regions. We used infrared thermography to explore how lower passive heat dissipation during flight impacts body-heat management in broad-billed (Cynanthus latirostris, 3.0 g), black-chinned (Archilochus alexandri, 3.0 g), Rivoli's (Eugenes fulgens, 7.5 g) and blue-throated (Lampornis clemenciae, 8.0 g) hummingbirds in southeastern Arizona and calliope hummingbirds (Selasphorus calliope, 2.6 g) in Montana. Thermal gradients driving passive heat dissipation through eye, shoulder and feet dissipation areas are eliminated between 36 and 40°C. Thermal gradients persisted at higher temperatures in smaller species, possibly allowing them to inhabit warmer sites. All species experienced extended daytime periods lacking thermal gradients. Broad-billed hummingbirds lacking thermal gradients regulated the mean total-body surface temperature at approximately 38°C, suggesting behavioural thermoregulation. Blue-throated hummingbirds were inactive when lacking passive heat dissipation and hence might have the lowest temperature tolerance of the four species. Use of thermal refugia permitted hummingbirds to tolerate higher temperatures, but climate change could eliminate refugia, forcing distributional shifts in hummingbird populations.

The temporal structure of the environment may influence range expansions during climate warming

Understanding the processes that influence range expansions during climate warming is paramount for predicting population extirpations and preparing for the arrival of non-native species. While climate warming occurs over a background of variation due to cyclical processes and irregular events, the temporal structure of the thermal environment is largely ignored when forecasting the dynamics of non-native species. Ecological theory predicts that high levels of temporal autocorrelation in the environment - relatedness between conditions occurring in close temporal proximity - will favor populations that would otherwise have an average negative growth rate by increasing the duration of favorable environmental periods. Here, we invoke such theory to explain the success of biological invasions and evaluate the hypothesis that sustained periods of high environmental temperature can act synergistically with increases in mean temperature to favor the establishment of non-native species. We conduct a 60-day field mesocosm experiment to measure the population dynamics of the non-native cladoceran zooplankter Daphnia lumholtzi and a native congener Daphnia pulex in ambient temperature environments (control), warmed with recurrent periods of high environmental temperatures (uncorrelated-warmed), or warmed with sustained periods of high environmental temperatures (autocorrelated-warmed), such that both warmed treatments exhibited the same mean temperature but exhibited different temporal structures of their thermal environments. Maximum D. lumholtzi densities in the warmed-autocorrelated treatment were threefold and eightfold higher relative to warmed-uncorrelated and control treatments, respectively. Yet, D. lumholtzi performed poorly across all experimental treatment(s) relative to D. pulex and were undetectable (by) the end of the experiment. Using mathematical models, we show that this increase in performance can occur alongside increasing temporal autocorrelation and should occur over a broad range of warming scenarios. These results provide both empirical and theoretical evidence that the temporal structure of the environment can influence the performance of species undergoing range expansions due to climate warming.

Fluctuating temperatures alter environmental pathogen transmission in a Daphnia-pathogen system

Environmental conditions are rarely constant, but instead vary spatially and temporally. This variation influences ecological interactions and epidemiological dynamics, yet most experimental studies examine interactions under constant conditions. We examined the effects of variability in temperature on the host–pathogen relationship between an aquatic zooplankton host (Daphnia laevis) and an environmentally transmitted fungal pathogen (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). We manipulated temperature variability by exposing all populations to mean temperatures of 20°C for the length of the experiments, but introducing periods of 1, 2, and 4 hr each day where the populations were exposed to 28°C followed by periods of the same length (1, 2, and 4 hr, respectively) where the populations were exposed to 12°C. Three experiments were performed to assess the role of thermal variability on Daphnia–pathogen interactions, specifically with respect to: (1) host infection prevalence and intensity; (2) free‐living pathogen survival; and (3) host foraging ecology. We found that temperature variability affected host filtering rate, which is closely related to pathogen transmission in this system. Further, infection prevalence was reduced as a function of temperature variability, while infection intensity was not influenced, suggesting that pathogen transmission was influenced by temperature variability, but the growth of pathogen within infected hosts was not. Host survival was reduced by temperature variability, but environmental pathogen survival was unaffected, suggesting that zooplankton hosts were more sensitive than the fungal pathogen to variable temperatures. Together, these experiments suggest that temperature variability may influence host demography and host–pathogen interactions, providing a link between host foraging ecology and pathogen transmission.