A nomogram for predicting the risk of postoperative recurrence of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with high preoperative serum glutamyl transpeptidase

ACTB may serve as a predictive marker for the efficacy of lenvatinib in patients with HBV-related early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma following partial hepatectomy: a retrospective cohort study

Background

The lack of effective biomarkers for the treatment of postoperative recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists despite lenvatinib therapy. This study aims to identify beta-actin (ACTB) as a predictive biomarker for lenvatinib that can facilitate individualized treatment for HCC.

Methods

This retrospective study included a subset of patients with HCC who underwent partial hepatectomy, with some receiving postoperative lenvatinib treatment and others not receiving lenvatinib treatment. A propensity score matching (PSM) analysis of patients who underwent treatment with or without lenvatinib following HCC partial hepatectomy was performed. Immunohistochemistry was employed to determine the levels of ACTB expression in HCC samples obtained from matched patients (n=225) enrolled in this study. The X-Tile was employed to determine the optimal cut-off point of ACTB levels for predicting time to recurrence (TTR). To assess the correlation between ACTB levels and lenvatinib efficacy, a subgroup analysis of TTR was conducted. A Cox regression model with an interaction term was utilized to assess the predictive significance of the model. Subsequently, a nomogram was developed and its discriminative ability and predictive accuracy were assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. For the investigation of the ACTB expression, HCC and para-tumoral normal tissues were employed. The patient-derived xenograft (PDX) model was utilized to validate the correlation between ACTB levels and lenvatinib responsiveness.

Results

After PSM, a total of 76 patients who underwent postoperative lenvatinib treatment were included in the analysis, with a median TTR of 24.35 months. Early-stage HCC patients with lower levels of ACTB exhibited a more favorable response to lenvatinib therapy compared to those with higher levels. The reduced expression of ACTB was indicative of the benefits of lenvatinib, as opposed to higher levels {hazard ratio (HR) =0.243 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.096-0.619], P<0.001, P value for interaction =0.014}. In approximately 81.8% of cases involving HCC patients, there was an observed increase in the expression of ACTB. Multivariate analysis of the lenvatinib cohort revealed Child-Pugh [HR =5.416 (95% CI: 1.390-21.104), P=0.015], Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage [HR =2.508 (95% CI: 1.116-5.639), P=0.026], and ACTB [HR =5.879 (95% CI: 2.424-14.259), P<0.001] score as independent factors for TTR, and all were included in the nomogram. The survival probability based on the calibration curve showed that the prediction of the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84). Moreover, the PDXs derived from tumors exhibiting low levels of ACTB expression demonstrated a heightened sensitivity to lenvatinib treatment.

Conclusions

In patients with tumors treated with lenvatinib, low ACTB expression can predict a lower risk of recurrence. The validation of this potential biomarker in independent cohorts is necessary prior to its implementation for precision treatment stratification in patients undergoing partial hepatectomy for early-stage HCC.

Construction and validation of a nomogram for HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma: a large, multicenter study

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

We initiated this multicenter study to integrate important risk factors to create a nomogram for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for clinician decision-making.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between April 2011 and March 2022, 2281 HCC patients with an HBV-related diagnosis were included. All patients were randomly divided into two groups in a ratio of 7:3 (training cohort, n = 1597; validation cohort, n = 684). The nomogram was built in the training cohort via Cox regression model and validated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox analyses revealed that the portal vein tumor thrombus, Child-Pugh class, tumor diameter, alanine aminotransferase level, tumor number, extrahepatic metastases, and therapy were independent predictive variables impacting overall survival. We constructed a new nomogram to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates based on these factors. The nomogram-related receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.809, 0.806, and 0.764 in predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates, respectively. Furthermore, the calibration curves revealed good agreement between real measurements and nomogram predictions. The decision curve analyses (DCA) curves demonstrated excellent therapeutic application potential. In addition, stratified by risk scores, low-risk groups had longer median OS than medium-high-risk groups (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram we constructed showed good performance in predicting the 1-year survival rate for HBV- related HCC.

Cuproptosis-related long non-coding RNAs model that effectively predicts prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Cuproptosis has recently been considered a novel form of programmed cell death. To date, long-chain non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) crucial to the regulation of this process remain unelucidated.

AIM

To identify lncRNAs linked to cuproptosis in order to estimate patients' prognoses for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Using RNA sequence data from The Cancer Genome Atlas Live Hepatocellular Carcinoma (TCGA-LIHC), a co-expression network of cuproptosis-related genes and lncRNAs was constructed. For HCC prognosis, we developed a cuproptosis-related lncRNA signature (CupRLSig) using univariate Cox, lasso, and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare overall survival among high- and low-risk groups stratified by median CupRLSig risk score. Furthermore, comparisons of functional annotation, immune infiltration, somatic mutation, tumor mutation burden (TMB), and pharmacologic options were made between high- and low-risk groups.

RESULTS

Three hundred and forty-three patients with complete follow-up data were recruited in the analysis. Pearson correlation analysis identified 157 cuproptosis-related lncRNAs related to 14 cuproptosis genes. Next, we divided the TCGA-LIHC sample into a training set and a validation set. In univariate Cox regression analysis, 27 LncRNAs with prognostic value were identified in the training set. After lasso regression, the multivariate Cox regression model determined the identified risk equation as follows: Risk score = (0.2659 × PICSAR expression) + (0.4374 × FOXD2-AS1 expression) + (-0.3467 × AP001065.1 expression). The CupRLSig high-risk group was associated with poor overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.162, 95%CI = 1.063-1.270; P < 0.001) after the patients were divided into two groups depending upon their median risk score. Model accuracy was further supported by receiver operating characteristic and principal component analysis as well as the validation set. The area under the curve of 0.741 was found to be a better predictor of HCC prognosis as compared to other clinicopathological variables. Mutation analysis revealed that high-risk combinations with high TMB carried worse prognoses (median survival of 30 mo vs 102 mo of low-risk combinations with low TMB group). The low-risk group had more activated natural killer cells (NK cells, P = 0.032 by Wilcoxon rank sum test) and fewer regulatory T cells (Tregs, P = 0.021) infiltration than the high-risk group. This finding could explain why the low-risk group has a better prognosis. Interestingly, when checkpoint gene expression (CD276, CTLA-4, and PDCD-1) and tumor immune dysfunction and rejection (TIDE) scores are considered, high-risk patients may respond better to immunotherapy. Finally, most drugs commonly used in preclinical and clinical systemic therapy for HCC, such as 5-fluorouracil, gemcitabine, paclitaxel, imatinib, sunitinib, rapamycin, and XL-184 (cabozantinib), were found to be more efficacious in the low-risk group; erlotinib, an exception, was more efficacious in the high-risk group.

CONCLUSION

The lncRNA signature, CupRLSig, constructed in this study is valuable in prognostic estimation of HCC. Importantly, CupRLSig also predicts the level of immune infiltration and potential efficacy of tumor immunotherapy.