Chronic conditions and mortality among the oldest old

Age modifies the association between severe sleep apnea and all-cause mortality

PURPOSE

While sleep apnea (SA) gets more prevalent with advancing age, the impact of age on the association between SA and health outcomes is not well known. We assessed the association between the severity of SA and all-cause mortality in different age groups using large longitudinal data.

METHOD

We applied a Natural Language Processing pipeline to extract the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) from the physicians' interpretation of sleep studies performed at the Veteran Health Administration (FY 1999-2022). We categorized the participants as no SA (n-SA, AHI< 5) and severe SA (s-SA, AHI≥30). We grouped the cohort based on age: Young≤40; Middle-aged:40-65; and Older adults≥65; and calculated the odds ratio (aOR) of mortality adjusted for age, sex, race, ethnicity, BMI, and Charlson-Comorbidity Index (CCI) using n-SA as the reference.

RESULTS

We identified 146,148 participants (age 52.23 ± 15.02; BMI 32.11 ± 6.05; male 86.7 %; White 66 %). Prevalence of s-SA increased with age. All-cause mortality was lower in s-SA compared to n-SA in the entire cohort (aOR,0.56; 95%CI: 0.54,0.58). Comparing s-SA to n-SA, the all-cause mortality rates (Young 1.86 % vs 1.49 %; Middle-aged 12.07 % vs 13.34 %; and Older adults 26.35 % vs 40.18 %) and the aOR diminished as the age increased (Young: 1.11, 95%CI: 0.93-1.32; Middle-aged: 0.64, 95%CI: 0.61-0.67; and Older adults: 0.44, 95%CI: 0.41-0.46).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of severe SA increased while the odds of all-cause mortality compared to n-SA diminished with age. SA may exert less harmful effects on the aged population. A causality analysis is warranted to assess the relationship between SA, aging, and all-cause mortality.

Acute kidney injury in nonagenarians: clinical characteristics and mortality

INTRODUCTION

Nonagenarians constitute a rising percentage of inpatients, with acute kidney injury (AKI) being frequent in this population. Thus, it is important to analyze the clinical characteristics of this demographic and their impact on mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective study of nonagenarian patients with AKI at a tertiary hospital between 2013 and 2022. Only the latest hospital admission was considered, and patients with incomplete data were excluded. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to define risk factors for mortality. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 150 patients were included, with a median age of 93.0 years (91.2-95.0), and males accounting for 42.7% of the sample. Sepsis was the most common cause of AKI (53.3%), followed by dehydration/hypovolemia (17.7%), and heart failure (17.7%). ICU admission occurred in 39.3% of patients, mechanical ventilation in 14.7%, vasopressors use in 22.7% and renal replacement therapy (RRT) in 6.7%. Death occurred in 56.7% of patients. Dehydration/hypovolemia as an etiology of AKI was associated with a lower risk of mortality (OR 0.18; 95% CI 0.04-0.77, p = 0.020). KDIGO stage 3 (OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.17-8.47, p = 0.023), ICU admission (OR 12.27; 95% CI 3.03-49.74, p < 0.001), and oliguria (OR 5.77; 95% CI 1.98-16.85, p = 0.001) were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

AKI nonagenarians had a high mortality rate, with AKI KDIGO stage 3, oliguria, and ICU admission being associated with death.

Prevalence of cognitive impairment and associated factors in older people

BACKGROUND

Older people are the fastest-growing age group, with the highest risk of cognitive impairment. This study assessed the prevalence and associated factors with cognitive impairment in community-dwelling older people.

METHODS

Older people were interviewed and accomplished through sociodemographic and health questionnaires. The quantitative variables were described by mean and standard deviation or median and interquartile range. The significance level adopted was 5 % (p < 0.05). The association between the quantitative variables was evaluated using the Pearson or Spearman correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

The research population comprised 165 long-lived adults aged ≥80. The youngest one was 80, and the oldest one was 94 years old. The participants were 84.8 ± 3.6 years old, female (63 %) with a mean of education of 2.9 ± 1.8 years. A poor performance in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was found in 58 (35.2 %) individuals when adjusted for educational level. After adjustment for confounding factors, body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.09), total older adults' income (up to 1 minimum wage [mw], p = 0.023; over 1 to 2 mw, p = 0.023), functional disability (Moderate dependence 75 %, p = 0.038; Moderate dependence 50 %, p = 0.081; Moderate dependence 25 %, p = 0.054), and the anxiety scale (p = 0.032), remained associated with cognitive impairment.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that BMI, total older adults' income, functional disability, and anxiety are related to cognitive impairment in long-lived adults. This study has some limitations, such as the fact that it is a cross-sectional study, the reduced number of individuals, and the fact that there were no comparisons among different ages and populations.

Healthcare contact days among older adults living with dementia

BACKGROUND

For older adults with dementia and their care partners, accessing health care outside the home involves substantial time, direct and indirect costs, and other burdens. While prior studies have estimated days spent by these individuals in or out of hospitals and nursing homes, ambulatory care burdens are likely substantial yet poorly understand. Therefore, we characterized "health care contact days"-days spent receiving ambulatory or institutional care-in this population.

METHODS

We used 2019 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data linked to claims for community-dwelling, ≥65-year-old adults with dementia in Traditional Medicare. We measured contact days including ambulatory days (with an office visit, test, imaging, procedure, or treatment) and institutional days (spent in an emergency department, hospital, skilled nursing facility, or hospice facility). We described variation and patterns in contact days. Using multivariable Poisson regression, we identified sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with contact days.

RESULTS

In weighted analyses, 887 older adults with dementia (weighted: 2.9 million) had mean (SD) 31.1 (33.7) total contact days/year, of which 21.7 (20.6) were ambulatory. Ten percent had ≥68 contact days in the year. One-third (34%) of ambulatory contact days involved multiple services. In multivariable models, receipt of more ambulatory contact days was associated with younger age (65-74 reference vs. -32.3% [95% CI: -42.2%, -20.7%] for 85+), higher income (>200% Federal Poverty Level [FPL] reference versus -16.6% [95% CI: -26.7%, -5.0%] for ≤200% FPL), and lack of functional impairment (reference versus -14.6% [95% CI: -23.7%, -4.4%]). Each additional chronic condition was associated with 8.2% (95% CI: 6.7%, 9.8%) more ambulatory contact days.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults with dementia spent 31 days a year accessing care which was mostly ambulatory. These days varied widely by both clinical and sociodemographic factors. These results highlight the need to reduce patient burden through strategies such as reducing unneeded care, coordinating care, and shifting care to home settings through telemedicine and home care.

Double Stigma in Portuguese Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Older Adults: A Study of Health Status

The double stigma-sexual stigma and ageism-can affect the health status of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) older adults, but little is known about this topic in Portugal and internationally. The aim of this study was to assess the health status and the prevalence of chronic diseases of Portuguese LGB older adults, as well as to assess the relationship between double stigma and health status. A sample of 280 Portuguese LGB older adults completed a chronic disease questionnaire, the Homosexuality-Related Stigma Scale, the Ambivalent Ageism Scale, and the SF-12 Short Form Health Survey. A structural equation model was performed using the double stigma variables as independent variables and health status as outcome. The mental health status of Portuguese LGB older adults was lower when compared to people from studies from more than 10 countries. Higher sexual self-stigma, sexual enacted stigma related to health care, and benevolent ageism significantly explained the worse general health status. The double stigma significantly affects the health status of these older adults in a profile of internalization of sexual stigma and benevolent age discrimination, and not necessarily by a hostile/aggressive profile. More research is needed on the double stigma.

Mortality and survival in nonagenarians during the COVID-19 pandemic: Unstable equilibrium of aging

Introduction

Aging puts the human body under an immense stress and makes it extremely susceptible to many diseases, often leading to poor outcomes and even death. Long-living individuals represent a unique group of people who withstood the stress of time and offer an abundance of information on the body's ability to endure the pressure of aging. In this study, we sought to identify predictors of overall one-year mortality in 1641 long-living individuals. Additionally, we analyzed risk factors for COVID-19-related morality, since statistics demonstrated an extreme vulnerability of older adults.

Methods

We conducted a two-stage evaluation, including a comprehensive geriatric assessment for major aging-associated: frailty, cognitive impairment, frontal lobe dysfunction, chronic pain, anxiety, risk of falls, sensory deficit, depression, sarcopenia, risk of malnutrition, fecal and urinary incontinence, dependence in Activities of Daily Living, dependence in Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, polypragmasia, and orthostatic hypotension; extensive blood testing, a survey, and a one-year follow-up interview.

Results

The most reliable predictors of overall mortality were cognitive impairment, malnutrition, frailty, aging-associated diseases and blood markers indicating malnutrition-induced metabolic dysfunctions (decreased levels of protein fractions, iron, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and HDL), and aging biomarkers, such as IGF-1 and N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide. In post-COVID 19 participants, the most significant mortality predictors among geriatric syndromes were depression, frontal lobe dysfunction and frailty, and similar to overall mortality blood biomarkers - 25-hydroxyvitamin D, IGF-1, HDL as well as high white blood cell, neutrophils counts and proinflammatory markers. Based on the results, we built a predictive model of overall mortality in the long-living individuals with f-score=0.76.

Conclusion

The most sensitive and reliable predictors of mortality were modifiable. This is another evidence of the critical importance of proper geriatric care and support for individuals in their "golden years". These results could facilitate geriatric institutions in their pursuit for providing improved care and could aid physicians in detecting early signs of potentially deadly outcomes. Additionally, our findings could be used in developing day-to-day care guidelines, which would greatly improve prevention statistics.

Transition to bereavement: A prospective longitudinal study of health-related quality of life in informal caregivers of oldest-old individuals

INTRODUCTION

Experiencing bereavement may be challenging. Despite the oldest-old population increase, a subgroup at greater risk of death, few studies focus on the grieving process of informal caregivers (ICs). This study analyzed the transition to bereavement of ICs of oldest-old individuals (≥80 years) over 1-year and compares the evolution of the health-related quality of life (HrQoL) between those experiencing bereavement and those who continued care through the study period.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prospective longitudinal observational study was conducted enrolling 204 ICs of the Metropolitan Area of Porto (North Portugal), of which 36 experienced the death of care receiver (CR). ICs' health profile and burden were assessed. CRs' functional and cognitive status were also appraised.

RESULTS

Bereaving caregivers were mostly female, CRs' children, and had on average 60.4 years at baseline. Caregivers spent a mean of 10.1 h/day (SD = 7.7) caring, for 80.6 months (SD = 57.5). The time elapsed since CR's death was 6 months (SD = 3.5) from entering in the study. CRs who died had a mean age of 88.3 (SD = 5.4) years at baseline, and were very dependent. Over a 1-year follow-up, bereaving caregivers showed a significant decrease in mental health following CR's death; on the other hand, caregivers who continued caring improved mental health [F(1, 159) = 4.249, p = 0.041].

DISCUSSION

Ending the caregiver career was marked by a decline in mental health whereas to continue caring was marked by an improvement in this outcome. While it is highly expected that the CR's death will be perceived as a relief considering both the caregiver's characteristics (e.g., medicines) and the CR condition (e.g., high dependence levels), the results suggest an opposite direction. CRs' death seems to arise an emotional burden for IC, at least during the first year, possibly triggering feelings of loneliness and a life without purpose that seems to aggravate mental health issues.

CONCLUSION

The transition to bereavement among ICs seems to lead to a caregiver mental health decline while those who continued caring (and thereby, experiencing caregiving stressors) seems to improve in this outcome. Ceasing caregiving stressors does not seem to contribute better experiencing bereavement among ICs, suggesting the need for support throughout this phase.

Predictors of Mortality in 433 Nonagenarians Inside the Mugello Study: A 10 Years Follow-Up Study

OBJECTIVE

to identify the predictors of mortality in a cohort of nonagenarians inside the "Mugello study" after 10 years follow-up.

METHODS

Information on sociodemographic data, cognitive and functional status, lifestyle, medical history, and drug use was collected from 433 non-selected participants aged 90-99 years, living in the Mugello area (Italy). Participants were followed over 10 years and their dates of death were retrieved from the municipal registers. Cox regression analysis was used to determine significant potential prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The mortality rate was 96.5%. Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that a lower cognitive status was significantly associated with higher mortality as well as a poorer functional status, a higher comorbidity, and a higher number of drugs consumption.

DISCUSSION

Impaired cognitive function, loss of functional independence, higher comorbidity, and higher drugs intake were the stronger predictors of mortality.

Development of Advanced Heart Failure: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Some patients with heart failure (HF) will go on to develop advanced HF, characterized by severe HF symptoms despite attempts to optimize medical therapy. The goals of this study were to examine the risk of developing advanced HF in patients with newly diagnosed HF, identify risk factors for developing advanced HF, and evaluate the impact of advanced HF on outcomes.

METHODS

This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with a new clinical diagnosis of HF between 2007 and 2017. Risk factors for the development of advanced HF (2018 European Society of Cardiology criteria) were examined using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression models. The associations of development of advanced HF with risks of hospitalization and mortality were examined using the Andersen-Gill and Cox models, respectively.

RESULTS

There were 4597 residents with incident HF from 2007 to 2017. The cumulative incidence of advanced HF was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.5%-12.5%) at 6 years after incident HF diagnosis overall and was 14.4% (95% CI, 12.3%-16.9%), 11.4% (95% CI, 8.9%-14.6%), and 11.7% (95% CI, 10.3%-13.2%) in patients with incident HF with reduced, mildly reduced, and preserved ejection fraction, respectively. Key demographics, comorbidities, and echocardiographic characteristics were independently associated with the development of advanced HF. Development of advanced HF was associated with increased risks of all-cause hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.0 [95% CI, 2.7-3.4]; P<0.001), HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 10.2 [95% CI, 8.7-12.1]), all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 5.0 [95% CI, 4.5-5.6]; P<0.001), and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 7.8 [95% CI, 6.7-9.1]).

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based study, development of advanced HF was common and was associated with markedly increased morbidity and mortality.

12-month survival in nonagenarians inside the Mugello study: on the way to live a century

Background

Life expectancy has increased over the last century and a growing number of people is reaching age 90 years and over. However, data on nonagenarians’ health trends are scarce due to difficulties in investigating this specific population. This study aims to identify risk factors for one-year mortality in nonagenarians using data collected within the “Mugello Study”.

Methods

Complete information on sociodemographic data, cognitive and functional status, lifestyle, medical history, and drug use was collected from 433 nonagenarians, as well as information about survival after 1 year from the interview.

Results

The sample included 314 women (72.5%) and 119 men (27.5%) with a median age of 92 years (range 90-99 years). The mortality rate was 20.3% (88 deaths). After adjustment for age and sex, a significantly higher risk of dying within 12 months was observed in individuals with more severe cognitive impairment (HR = 5.011, p < 0.001), more severe disability in basic activities of daily living (HR = 4.193, p < 0.001), sedentary lifestyle (HR = 3.367, p < 0.001), higher number of drugs assumed (HR = 1.118, p = 0.031), and kidney dysfunction (HR = 2.609, p = 0.004). When all the variables were included in the analysis, only older age (HR = 1.079, p = 0.048), lower cognitive function (HR = 2.859, p = 0.015), sedentary lifestyle (HR = 2.030, p = 0.026), and kidney dysfunction (HR = 2.322, p = 0.018) remained significantly associated with reduced survival.

Conclusions

Data from the Mugello study support the hypothesis that survival at 12 months in nonagenarians is not a stochastic process and that older age, reduced cognitive function, sedentary lifestyle, and the presence of kidney dysfunction are associated with mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02908-9.

Quantifying self-rated age

Chronological age, in conjunction with population life tables, is widely used for estimating future life expectancy. The aims of this study are to estimate a subjective ageing indicator, namely self-rated age, and to evaluate its concurrent validity in comparison with other age indicators: subjective survival probabilities, subjective age, and biological age. We use data from the Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, Wave 12 of the Health and Retirement Study in the United States, and life tables from the Human Mortality Database. For the statistical analysis we use multinomial regression models. Our results indicate that health status and frequency of physical activities imply similar patterns of self- rated age, subjective survival probabilities, subjective age, and biological age. However, the impact of cognitive function differs by geographical region. Self-rated age can be interpreted as a subjective adjustment that better reflects the ageing process.

Association Between Functional Limitations and Incident Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality Among the Middle-Aged and Older Adults in China: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The prevalence of functional limitations is relatively high among the middle-aged and older adults. However, the contribution of functional limitations to subsequent incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and death is unclear. This study aims to examine the association between functional limitations and incident CVD and all-cause mortality among the middle-aged and older adults.

Methods

This is a nationally representative prospective cohort study. Participants were middle-aged and older Chinese adults from The China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Functional limitations were measured using activities of daily living (ADL) scale and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) scale. Incident CVD and death were recorded at followed-up from June 1, 2011, up until August 31, 2018. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between functional limitations and incident CVD and all-cause mortality.

Results

A total of 11,013 participants were included in this study. During the 7 years of follow-up, 1,914 incident CVD and 1,182 incident deaths were identified. Participants with functional limitations were associated with a 23% increased risk of incident CVD (HR, 1.23, 95% CI:1.08,1.39) after adjusting for age, gender, residential area, marital status, education, smoking, alcohol drinking, sleep duration, nap duration, depression symptoms, social participation, history of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, use of hypertension medications, diabetes medications, and lipid-lowering therapy. Moreover, participants with functional limitations were associated with a 63% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR,1.63, 95%CI: 1.41,1.89) after adjusting for potential confounders.

Conclusions

Functional limitations were significantly associated with subsequent incident CVD and death among the middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

Predicting Life Expectancy to Target Cancer Screening Using Electronic Health Record Clinical Data

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend breast and colorectal cancer screening for older adults with a life expectancy >10 years. Most mortality indexes require clinician data entry, presenting a barrier for routine use in care. Electronic health records (EHR) are a rich clinical data source that could be used to create individualized life expectancy predictions to identify patients for cancer screening without data entry.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and internally validate a life expectancy calculator from structured EHR data.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using national Veteran's Affairs (VA) EHR databases.

PATIENTS

Veterans aged 50+ with a primary care visit during 2005.

MAIN MEASURES

We assessed demographics, diseases, medications, laboratory results, healthcare utilization, and vital signs 1 year prior to the index visit. Mortality follow-up was complete through 2017. Using the development cohort (80% sample), we used LASSO Cox regression to select ~100 predictors from 913 EHR data elements. In the validation cohort (remaining 20% sample), we calculated the integrated area under the curve (iAUC) and evaluated calibration.

KEY RESULTS

In 3,705,122 patients, the mean age was 68 years and the majority were male (97%) and white (85%); nearly half (49%) died. The life expectancy calculator included 93 predictors; age and gender most strongly contributed to discrimination; diseases also contributed significantly while vital signs were negligible. The iAUC was 0.816 (95% confidence interval, 0.815, 0.817) with good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a life expectancy calculator using VA EHR data with excellent discrimination and calibration. Automated life expectancy prediction using EHR data may improve guideline-concordant breast and colorectal cancer screening by identifying patients with a life expectancy >10 years.

Age differences in the association of comorbid burden with adverse outcomes in SARS-CoV-2

Background

Older age and comorbid burden are both associated with adverse outcomes in SARS-CoV-2, but it is not known whether the association between comorbid burden and adverse outcomes differs in older and younger adults.

Objective

To compare the relationship between comorbid burden and adverse outcomes in adults with SARS-CoV-2 of different ages (18–64, 65–79 and ≥ 80 years).

Design, setting, and participants

Observational longitudinal cohort study of 170,528 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Health Care System between 2/28/20 and 12/31/2020 who were followed through 01/31/2021.

Measurements

Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI); Incidence of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and death within 30 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test.

Results

The cumulative 30-day incidence of death was 0.8% in cohort members < 65 years, 7.1% in those aged 65–79 years and 20.6% in those aged ≥80 years. The respective 30-day incidences of hospitalization were 8.2, 21.7 and 29.5%, of ICU admission were 2.7, 8.6, and 11% and of mechanical ventilation were 1, 3.9 and 3.2%. Median CCI (interquartile range) ranged from 0.0 (0.0, 2.0) in the youngest, to 4 (2.0, 7.0) in the oldest age group. The adjusted association of CCI with all outcomes was attenuated at older ages such that the threshold level of CCI above which the risk for each outcome exceeded the reference group (1st quartile) was lower in younger than in older cohort members (p < 0.001 for all age group interactions).

Limitations

The CCI is calculated based on diagnostic codes, which may not provide an accurate assessment of comorbid burden.

Conclusions

Age differences in the distribution and prognostic significance of overall comorbid burden could inform clinical management, vaccination prioritization and population health during the pandemic and argue for more work to understand the role of age and comorbidity in shaping the care of hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-021-02340-5.

Cognitive and vascular function in older adults with and without CKD

BACKGROUND

Cognitive impairment is a common complication of aging that is also associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Vascular dysfunction has been implicated as a potential cause of cognitive impairment in older adults, with particular deficits noted in those with CKD.

AIMS

To determine the differences in cognitive function and vascular compliance in older adults with and without CKD with preclinical cognitive impairment and the relationship between these factors.

METHODS

Utilizing a cross-sectional approach, 48 older adults with preclinical cognitive impairment (24 with and 24 without CKD) were evaluated for performance on a test of global cognition and executive function, and vascular compliance via tonometry and ultrasound.

RESULTS

Cognitive function and some indicators of vascular function were significantly different in older adults with and without CKD. Global cognition was correlated with carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (r = - 0.36, p = 0.02) in the entire sample. Vascular function was not correlated with executive function.

DISCUSSION

Older adults with preclinical cognitive impairment and CKD had different cognitive and vascular function than those without CKD, and an indicator of vascular function may have a relationship with cognitive function in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study support the assessment of cognitive and vascular function in older adults with and without CKD with preclinical cognitive impairment.

Suicide Distribution and Trends Among Male Older Adults in the U.S., 1999-2018

INTRODUCTION

This study examines the distribution and trends in suicide death rates among male adults aged ≥65 years in the U.S. from 1999 to 2018.

METHODS

Suicide mortality data were derived from Multiple Cause of Death from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database. Suicides were identified from the underlying causes of death. Joinpoint regression examined the distribution and shift in suicide age-adjusted death rates overall and by age groups, race/ethnicity, method of suicide, and urbanicity. Analyses were conducted in 2020.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2018, a total of 106,861 male adults aged ≥65 years died of suicide (age-adjusted rate=31.4 per 100,000 population, 95% CI=31.2, 31.6). Suicide rates showed a V-shaped trend. They were declining annually by 1.8% (95% CI= -2.4, -1.2); however, starting in 2007, there was a shift upward, increasing significantly by 1.7% per year for the next decade (95% CI=1.0, 1.6). Suicide rates were highest among those aged ≥85 years (48.8 per 100,000 population with an upward shift in 2008), Whites (35.3 per 100,000 population with an upward shift in trend in 2007), and the most rural communities (39.0 per 100,000 population). Most suicides were due to firearms (78.3% at a rate of 24.7 per 100,000 population), especially in rural areas, and shifted upward after 2007.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in suicide rates among male older adults in the U.S., particularly after the 2007-2008 economic recession, are concerning. Tailored suicide prevention intervention strategies are needed to address suicide-related risk factors.

Links Between Mortality and Socioeconomic Characteristics, Disease Burden, and Biological and Physical Functioning in the Aging Chinese Population

OBJECTIVES

Determinants of mortality may depend on the time and place where they are examined. China provides an important context in which to study the determinants of mortality at older ages because of its unique social, economic, and epidemiological circumstances. This study uses a nationally representative sample of persons in China to determine how socioeconomic characteristics, early-life conditions, biological and physical functioning, and disease burden predict 4-year mortality after age 60.

METHODS

We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We employed a series of Cox proportional hazard models based on exact survival time to predict 4-year all-cause mortality between the 2011 baseline interview and the 2015 interview.

RESULTS

We found that rural residence, poor physical functioning ability, uncontrolled hypertension, diabetes, cancer, a high level of systemic inflammation, and poor kidney functioning are strong predictors of mortality among older Chinese.

DISCUSSION

The results show that the objectively measured indicators of physical functioning and biomarkers are independent and strong predictors of mortality risk after accounting for several additional self-reported health measures, confirming the value of incorporating biological and performance measurements in population health surveys to help understand health changes and aging processes that lead to mortality. This study also highlights the importance of social and historical context in the study of old-age mortality.

Laying the foundation for a Core Set of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health for community-dwelling older adults in primary care: relevant categories of their functioning from the research perspective, a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to find relevant concepts of functioning in community-dwelling older adults within frequently used assessment instruments published in the scientific literature. This was part of a larger project to develop an International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) Core Set for use in primary care.

DESIGN

A scoping review was conducted. Articles dealing with functioning in older adults were searched and assessed for eligibility. The study population included community-dwelling adults (≥75 years) without dementia, living in high-resource countries. Relevant concepts were extracted from assessment instruments and linked to the ICF using standardised linking rules. Finally, a frequency analysis was conducted.

SETTING

Home, primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling adults aged 75 years and above.

RESULTS

From 5060 identified publications, 68 were included and 30 assessment instruments extracted. Overall, 1182 concepts were retrieved. Most were linked to the 'activities and participation' component. The most frequently identified categories were 'memory functions', 'dressing' and 'changing basic body position'.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides a list of relevant ICF categories from the research perspective that will be used for developing an ICF Core Set for older primary care patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

PROSPERO (CRD42017067784), Versorgungsforschung Deutschland Datenbank (VfD_17_003833) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03384732).

Healthy aging predicts mortality risks: Results from the Korean longitudinal study of aging (2006-2014)

INTRODUCTION

While there has been some gerontological research on healthy aging, few studies have identified a reasonable health status for the older adults. Guided by the four healthy aging concepts in studies from the US and Spain, this study sought to determine a useful definition for Korean older adults by examining the associations between each of the four healthy aging definitions and mortality.

METHODS

A longitudinal analysis was conducted based on the 2,960 older people (65 years or older) who participated in the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2006-2014). Four healthy aging gradient definitions (Rowe and Kahn, Group Ⅰ, Group II, and Group III) were determined: absence of disease, free of disability, physical and cognitive function, and engagement with life.

RESULTS

The young old who failed to achieve healthy aging were found to have a higher risk of mortality in all four healthy aging gradient definitions in both males (HR range from 4.15 to 5.39) and females (HR range from 4.07 to 9.55). In old old, however, the unhealthy aging mortality risk in Rowe and Kahn's definition was disappeared, but predominant mortality risks were found in Group III for both male (HR = 3.16, 95% CI 1.67 - 5.98) and female (HR = 3.65, 95% CI 1.36 - 9.81) CONCLUSION: To promote healthy aging, we suggest that the definition for the young old includes rigid disease criteria, and old old emphasize functional ability. Age-specific aims for healthy aging may be useful for defining healthy aging.

Sensory impairment and all-cause mortality among the elderly adults in China: a population-based cohort study

With age-related functional deterioration, sensory impairment including vision impairment (VI), hearing impairment (HI), and dual sensory impairment (DSI) usually occurred among the elderly population, causing a decrease in functional capacity and quality of life. The study aimed to explore how sensory impairment is associated with the risk of all-cause mortality among the elderly adults in China. We prospectively investigated the association among 37,076 participants enrolled from 1998 to 2019 in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. We also, as a sensitivity analysis, explored the association among 11,365 newly incident sensory impairment participants. Cox regression model with sensory impairment as a time-varying exposure was performed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Compared with participants without sensory impairment, those with VI (HR=1.20, 95% CI: 1.15-1.24), HI (HR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.21-1.31), and DSI (HR: 1.46, 95% CI=1.41-1.52) had significant higher risk of all-cause mortality after adjusting for potential confounders. These associations were robust among subgroup analyses stratified by sex and entry age, and sensitivity analyses performed among newly incident sensory impairment participants. In conclusion, sensory impairment was associated with higher mortality risk among the elderly adults in China.

Magnitude and time-course of excess mortality during COVID-19 outbreak: population-based empirical evidence from highly impacted provinces in northern Italy

Background

The real impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on overall mortality remains uncertain as surveillance reports have attributed a limited number of deaths to novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the outbreak. The aim of this study was to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in highly impacted areas of northern Italy.

Methods

We analysed data on deaths that occurred in the first 4 months of 2020 provided by the health protection agencies (HPAs) of Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), building a time-series of daily number of deaths and predicting the daily standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and cumulative number of excess deaths through a Poisson generalised additive model of the observed counts in 2020, using 2019 data as a reference.

Results

We estimated that there were 5740 (95% credible set (CS) 5552–5936) excess deaths in the HPA of Bergamo and 3703 (95% CS 3535–3877) in Brescia, corresponding to a 2.55-fold (95% CS 2.50–2.61) and 1.93 (95% CS 1.89–1.98) increase in the number of deaths. The excess death wave started a few days later in Brescia, but the daily estimated SMR peaked at the end of March in both HPAs, roughly 2 weeks after the introduction of lockdown measures, with significantly higher estimates in Bergamo (9.4, 95% CI 9.1–9.7).

Conclusion

Excess mortality was significantly higher than that officially attributed to COVID-19, disclosing its hidden burden likely due to indirect effects on the health system. Time-series analyses highlighted the impact of lockdown restrictions, with a lower excess mortality in the HPA where there was a smaller delay between the epidemic outbreak and their enforcement.

This study identifies another important element to research on #SARSCoV2 and provides actionable strategies to quantify the excess mortality due to #COVID19 spread, which has public health and research implications to minimise the disease impacthttps://bit.ly/3jbKXAW

Patterns of chronic illness among older patients attending a university hospital in Nigeria

Background

The rising burden of chronic diseases has attracted the attention of public health researchers and policymakers worldwide.

Objectives

To assess the demographic, morbidity and outcome patterns of chronic illness among the older patients at Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospitals Complex, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

Design

Retrospective study

Setting

Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospitals Complex, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

Participants

Seven hundred and eighty-eight (788) adults (60 years and over) hospitalized between 2010 and 2014 in the hospital.

Interventions

None

Results

The age of the selected study population ranged from 60 to 99 years with a mean of 76.08(±10.42). More than half (53.0%) were between 60–69 years, with a subsequent decline. Male patients accounted for 64.0%, but females were more frequent among patients 80 years and older. The most common health conditions were heart diseases (22.5%), neoplasm (13.2%), cerebrovascular accident (12.4%), and gastrointestinal diseases (14.5%). The records showed that 14.9% were referred to other institution for various reasons (including further management, lack of space, industrial action by workers, discharged against medical advice or dead).

Conclusion

Heart diseases were the major chronic illnesses among the older adults followed by neoplasm conditions, while musculoskeletal conditions were the least. It also found that there was a poor outcome of conditions among older adults in this setting. Therefore, efforts should be made towards the prevention and reduction of chronic illnesses, as well as improving the outcome of care.

Funding

Doctoral Fellowship from Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa

Activity behavior and cognitive performance in older adults living in a senior housing facility: the impact of frailty status

BACKGROUND

Frailty, a condition characterized by a reduced physiological reserve and resilience, is highly prevalent among older adults.

AIMS

This study examined differences in physical activity (PA) level, sedentary behavior (SB) time, and cognitive performance in older adults living in a senior housing facility (SHF) as a function of frailty status.

METHODS

This study assessed 100 older adults from a SHF in the Midwest area of the United States. Participants were categorized as frail or non-frail according to scores observed in the short physical performance battery (SPPB), using the cutoff of nine previously stated in the literature. PA level and SB time were self-reportedly assessed using the physical activity scale for the elderly (PASE) and SB using a specific questionnaire developed for the older adult population. Cognitive performance was assessed using a collection of tests measuring cognitive processing speed, verbal learning, visuospatial memory, and verbal fluency.

RESULTS

Frail and non-frail older adults reported similar PA level and SB time (P > .05). Frail older adults performed significantly (P < .05) worse than their counterparts, non-frail in all measures of cognitive function. However, after controlling the analysis for age, only processing speed (SDMT scores) remained statistically different (P < .05) between groups.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

Older adults living in a SHF with different frailty status (i.e., frail vs. non-frail) report similar levels of PA level and SB time; but our findings suggest that non-frail older adults appear to have better cognitive function in terms of processing speed compared to the frail group.

Perceived risk of institutionalization, hospitalization, and death in oldest old primary care patients

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to analyze the accuracy and predictive ability of the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) scored by general practitioners (GPs) in a sample of primary care patients aged 80+ with perceived mental health concerns.

METHOD

GPs ranked the perceived risk of the three adverse outcomes (hospitalization, institutionalization and death) at 1 year in a five Likert scale (RISC score), where 1 is the lowest risk and 5 is the highest. Follow up contacts were conducted after 1 year of assessment in order to collect data on the three outcomes.

RESULTS

The 1-year proportion of institutionalization, hospitalization and death were 12.1 %, 25.2 % and 19.0 % respectively. Based upon the sensitivity and specificity from the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, we found an optimal cut-off point of ≥4 for the RISC. The RISC had fair accuracy for 1-year risk of institutionalization (Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.75, 95% CI 0.43-0.68) and hospitalization (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.78), but not for death (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

The RISC as a short global subjective assessment is to be considered a reliable tool for use by GPs. Our results showed that RISC seems to be a good instrument to triage very old people at risk for institutionalization but with poor accuracy at predicting hospitalization and limited predictive ability for death, suggesting further research and caution on this instrument's use.

Effects of Mobility and Cognition on Maintenance of Independence and Survival Among Women in Late Life

Background

We examined the effects of mobility and cognition on maintenance of independence among women in late life.

Methods

Prospective 5-year study of 1,010 independent community-dwelling women (mean age 88.0 years) participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Year 20 examination (2006-2008). Mobility, ascertained by walk speed, was categorized as good (≥0.9 m/s), intermediate (>0.6 m/s to <0.9 m/s), or poor (≤0.6 m/s). Cognitive status, adjudicated based on neuropsychological tests, was classified as normal or impaired (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). Loss of independence was defined as being unable to perform ≥2 activities of daily living or nursing home residence at 5-year follow-up. Possible outcomes were alive and independent, alive and dependent, and deceased.

Results

Four hundred and twenty-three (41.9%) participants were independent at follow-up, whereas 208 (20.6%) were alive but dependent; 379 (37.5%) had died. Compared to women with good mobility, those with slow walk speed were less likely to be independent (risk ratio, [RR] 0.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.52), after controlling for cognition and other risk factors. Similarly, those with impaired cognition were less likely to be independent, after controlling for walk speed and other risk factors (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.49-0.71). Women with slow walk speed and impaired cognition were 6-fold less likely to be independent at follow-up compared to those with good walk speed and normal cognition (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.08-0.23).

Conclusions

Both mobility and cognition are associated with maintenance of independence among the oldest old of women even after accounting for each other and other conventional predictors.

Association of Functional Impairment in Middle Age With Hospitalization, Nursing Home Admission, and Death

IMPORTANCE

Difficulty performing daily activities such as bathing and dressing ("functional impairment") affects nearly 15% of middle-aged adults. Older adults who develop such difficulties, often because of frailty and other age-related conditions, are at increased risk of acute care use, nursing home admission, and death. However, it is unknown if functional impairments that develop among middle-aged people, which may have different antecedents, have similar prognostic significance.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether middle-aged individuals who develop functional impairment are at increased risk for hospitalization, nursing home admission, and death.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This matched cohort study analyzed longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative prospective cohort study of US adults. The study population included 5540 adults aged 50 to 56 years who did not have functional impairment at study entry in 1992, 1998, or 2004. Participants were followed biennially through 2014. Individuals who developed functional impairment between 50 and 64 years were matched by age, sex, and survey wave with individuals without impairment as of that age and survey wave. Statistical analysis was conducted from March 15, 2017, to December 11, 2018.

EXPOSURES

Impairment in activities of daily living (ADLs), defined as self-reported difficulty performing 1 or more ADLs, and impairment in instrumental ADLs (IADLs), defined similarly.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The 3 primary outcomes were time from the first episode of functional impairment (or matched survey wave, in controls) to hospitalization, nursing home admission, and death. Follow-up assessments occurred every 2 years until 2014. Competing risks survival analysis was used to assess the association of functional impairment with hospitalization and nursing home admission and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to assess the association with death.

RESULTS

Of the 5540 study participants (2739 women and 2801 men; median age, 53.7 years [interquartile range, 52.3-55.2 years]), 1097 (19.8%) developed ADL impairment between 50 and 64 years, and 857 (15.5%) developed IADL impairment. Individuals with ADL impairment had an increased risk of each adverse outcome compared with those without impairment, including hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.77-2.19), nursing home admission (subhazard ratio, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.99-3.45), and death (hazard ratio, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.74-2.45). After multivariable adjustment, the risks of hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.36-1.75) and nursing home admission (subhazard ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.24-2.43) remained significantly higher among individuals with ADL impairment, but the risk of death was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.85-1.32). Individuals with IADL impairment had an increased risk of all 3 outcomes in adjusted and unadjusted analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Similar to older adults, middle-aged adults who develop functional impairment appear to be at increased risk for adverse outcomes. Even among relatively young people, functional impairment has important clinical implications.

Neuropsychological Test Norms in Cognitively Intact Oldest-Old

OBJECTIVES

Individuals aged 90 or older (oldest-old), the fastest growing segment of the population, are at increased risk of developing cognitive impairment compared with younger old. Neuropsychological evaluation of the oldest-old is important yet challenging in part because of the scarcity of test norms for this group. We provide neuropsychological test norms for cognitively intact oldest-old.

METHODS

Test norms were derived from 403 cognitively intact participants of The 90+ Study, an ongoing study of aging and dementia in the oldest-old. Cognitive status of intact oldest-old was determined at baseline using cross-sectional approach. Individuals with cognitive impairment no dementia or dementia (according to DSM-IV criteria) were excluded. Participants ranged in age from 90 to 102 years (mean=94). The neuropsychological battery included 11 tests (Mini-Mental Status Examination, Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, Boston Naming Test - Short Form, Letter Fluency Test, Animal Fluency Test, California Verbal Learning Test-II Short Form, Trail Making Tests A/B/C, Digit Span Forward and Backwards Test, Clock Drawing Test, CERAD Construction Subtests), and the Geriatric Depression Scale.

RESULTS

Data show significantly lower scores with increasing age on most tests. Education level, sex, and symptoms of depression were associated with performance on several tests after accounting for age.

CONCLUSIONS

Provided test norms will help to distinguish cognitively intact oldest-old from those with cognitive impairment. (JINS, 2019, 25, 530-545).

Multimorbidity Burden and Adverse Outcomes in a Community-Based Cohort of Adults with Heart Failure

OBJECTIVES

To assess multimorbidity burden and its association with clinical outcomes in adults with heart failure (HF) according to sex, age, and HF type.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Five healthcare delivery systems across the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with HF (N=114,553).

MEASUREMENTS

We characterized participants with respect to the presence of 26 chronic conditions categorized into quartiles based on overall burden of comorbidity (<5, 5-6, 7-8, ≥9). Outcomes included all-cause death and hospitalization for HF or any cause. Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate the adjusted association between categorized burden of multimorbidity burden and outcomes.

RESULTS

Individuals with more morbidities were more likely to die than those with fewer then 5 morbidities (5-6 morbidities: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.27 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.24-1.31; 7-8 morbidities: aHR=1.52, 95% CI=1.48-1.57; ≥9 morbidities: aHR=1.92, 95% CI=1.86-1.99). There was a graded, higher adjusted rate of any-cause hospitalization associated with 5 or 6 (aHR=1.28, 95% CI=1.25-1.30), 7 or 8 (aHR=1.47, 95% CI=1.44-1.50), or 9 or more (aHR=1.77, 95% CI=1.73-1.82) morbidities (vs <5). Similar findings were observed for HF-specific hospitalization in those with 5 or 6 (aHR=1.22, 95% CI=1.19-1.26), 7 or 8 (aHR=1.39, 95% CI=1.34-1.44), or 9 or more (aHR 1.68, 95% CI=1.61-1.74) morbidities (vs <5). Consistent findings were seen according to sex, age group, and HF type (preserved, reduced, borderline HF), in the association between categorical burden of multimorbidity and outcomes especially prominent in individuals younger than 65.

CONCLUSION

After adjustment, higher levels of multimorbidity predicted worse HF outcomes and may be an important consideration in strategies to improve clinical and person-centered outcomes. J Am Geriatr Soc 66:2305-2313, 2018.

Age, Cohort, and Social Change: Parental and Spousal Education and White Women's Health Limitations From 1967 to 2012

A large body of research finds that the association between educational attainment and health is at historic highs for White women. Rapid changes in labor force participation, access to high-paying jobs, and gender attitudes have radically altered the meaning of education for women's lives and their dependence on the socioeconomic attainments of their families. Drawing on three nationally representative longitudinal surveys conducted from 1967 to 2012, this study examines how personal, parental, and spousal attainments contribute to the widening education gap in health for successive cohorts of White women ( N = 8,405). Overall, the health of women did not change substantially across cohorts, but results did uncover cohort differences among low-educated women that were linked to parental and spousal educational attainments and personal earnings. These findings confirm growing educational inequalities in health and demonstrate the importance of historical context and family attainments when examining cohort variation in the education-health relationship.

Magnitude and impact of multiple chronic conditions with advancing age in older adults hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

To examine age-specific differences in the frequency and impact of cardiac and non-cardiac conditions among patients aged 65 years and older hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS

Study population consisted of 3863 adults hospitalized with AMI at 11 medical centers in central Massachusetts on a biennial basis between 2001 and 2011. The presence of 11 chronic conditions (five cardiac and six non-cardiac) was based on the review of hospital medical records.

RESULTS

Participants' median age was 79 years, 49% were men, and had an average of three chronic conditions (average of cardiac conditions: 2.6 and average of non-cardiac conditions: 1.0). Approximately one in every two patients presented with two or more cardiac related conditions whereas one in every three patients presented with two or more non-cardiac related conditions. The most prevalent chronic conditions in our study population were hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and peripheral vascular disease. Patients across all age groups with a greater number of previously diagnosed cardiac or non-cardiac conditions were at higher risk for developing important clinical complications or dying during hospitalization as compared to those with 0-1 condition.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of multimorbidity among older adults hospitalized with AMI is high and associated with worse outcomes that should be considered in the management of this vulnerable population.

Older adults in jail: high rates and early onset of geriatric conditions

BACKGROUND

The number of older adults in the criminal justice system is rapidly increasing. While this population is thought to experience an early onset of aging-related health conditions ("accelerated aging"), studies have not directly compared rates of geriatric conditions in this population to those found in the general population. The aims of this study were to compare the burden of geriatric conditions among older adults in jail to rates found in an age-matched nationally representative sample of community dwelling older adults.

METHODS

This cross sectional study compared 238 older jail inmates age 55 or older to 6871 older adults in the national Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We used an age-adjusted analysis, accounting for the difference in age distributions between the two groups, to compare sociodemographics, chronic conditions, and geriatric conditions (functional, sensory, and mobility impairment). A second age-adjusted analysis compared those in jail to HRS participants in the lowest quintile of wealth.

RESULTS

All geriatric conditions were significantly more common in jail-based participants than in HRS participants overall and HRS participants in the lowest quintile of net worth. Jail-based participants (average age of 59) experienced four out of six geriatric conditions at rates similar to those found in HRS participants age 75 or older.

CONCLUSIONS

Geriatric conditions are prevalent in older adults in jail at significantly younger ages than non-incarcerated older adults suggesting that geriatric assessment and geriatric-focused care are needed for older adults cycling through jail in their 50s and that correctional clinicians require knowledge about geriatric assessment and care.

Feasibility of using administrative data for identifying medical reasons to delay hip fracture surgery: a Canadian database study

PURPOSE

Failure to account for medically necessary delays may lead to an underestimation of early surgery benefits. This study investigated the feasibility of using administrative data to identify the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 124 guideline list of conditions that appropriately delay hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

We assembled a list of diagnosis and procedure codes to reflect the NICE 124 conditions. The list was reviewed and updated by an advanced clinical coder. The list was refined by five clinical experts. We then screened Canadian Institute for Health Information discharge abstracts for 153 918 patients surgically treated for a non-pathological first hip fracture between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2012 for diagnosis codes present on admission and procedure codes that antedated hip fracture surgery. We classified abstracts as having medical reasons for delaying surgery based on the presence of these codes.

RESULTS

In total, 10 237 (6.7%; 95% CI 6.5% to 6.8%) patients had diagnostic and procedure codes indicating medical reasons for delay. The most common reasons for medical delay were exacerbation of a chronic chest condition (35.9%) and acute chest infection (23.2%). The proportion of patients with reasons for medical delays increased with time from admission to surgery: 3.9% (95% CI 3.6% to 4.1%) for same day surgery; 4.7% (95% CI 4.5% to 4.8%) for surgery 1 day after admission; 7.1% (95% CI 6.9% to 7.4%) for surgery 2 days after admission; and 15.5% (95% CI 15.1% to 16.0%) for surgery more than 2 days after admission. The trend was seen for admissions on weekday working hours, weekday after hours and on weekends.

CONCLUSION

Administrative data can be considered to identify conditions that appropriately delay hip fracture surgery. Accounting for medically necessary delays can improve estimates of the effectiveness of early surgery.

Magnitude and Characteristics of Patients Who Survived an Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to describe the magnitude and characteristics of patients who did not experience any significant major adverse cardiovascular event early (within 6 weeks) and late (during the first year) after hospital discharge for an acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from 12 243 patients discharged after an AMI from 233 sites across the United States in the TRANSLATE-ACS (Treatment With ADP Receptor Inhibitors: Longitudinal Assessment of Treatment Patterns and Events After Acute Coronary Syndrome) study were analyzed. Multivariable adjusted regression analyses modeled factors associated with 6-week and 1-year survivors who did not experience a recurrent AMI, stroke, unplanned coronary revascularization, or rehospitalization for unstable angina/chest pain during these time periods. The average age of this study population was 60.0 years, 72.0% were men, and 87.9% were white. In this population, 92.4% were classified as early low-risk survivors and 76.3% were classified as late low-risk survivors of an AMI. Factors associated with being an early and late postdischarge survivor included being male and having single-vessel coronary artery disease at the patient's index hospitalization. Patients who were not first seen with any chronic health condition, had an index hospital stay of ≤3 days, and had high baseline quality-of-life scores were more likely to be late low-risk survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying low-risk survivors of an AMI may permit healthcare providers to focus more intensive efforts and interventions on those at higher risk of experiencing adverse cardiovascular events during the postdischarge transition period.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01088503.

Cultural and emotional determinants of cervical cancer screening among older Hispanic women

Older adults are at highest risk of cancer and yet have the lowest rates of cancer screening participation. Older minority adults bear the burden of cancer screening disparities leading to late stage cancer diagnoses. This investigation, utilization data from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement study examined the cultural and emotional factors thought to influence cervical cancer screening among older Hispanic women. We utilized logistic regression models to conduct the analyses. Findings indicate that the emotional factors were not significant but the cultural factor, time orientation was a significant predictor for older Hispanics' cervical cancer screening behaviors.

DNA methylation signatures in peripheral blood strongly predict all-cause mortality

DNA methylation (DNAm) has been revealed to play a role in various diseases. Here we performed epigenome-wide screening and validation to identify mortality-related DNAm signatures in a general population-based cohort with up to 14 years follow-up. In the discovery panel in a case-cohort approach, 11,063 CpGs reach genome-wide significance (FDR<0.05). 58 CpGs, mapping to 38 well-known disease-related genes and 14 intergenic regions, are confirmed in a validation panel. A mortality risk score based on ten selected CpGs exhibits strong association with all-cause mortality, showing hazard ratios (95% CI) of 2.16 (1.10–4.24), 3.42 (1.81–6.46) and 7.36 (3.69–14.68), respectively, for participants with scores of 1, 2–5 and 5+ compared with a score of 0. These associations are confirmed in an independent cohort and are independent from the ‘epigenetic clock'. In conclusion, DNAm of multiple disease-related genes are strongly linked to mortality outcomes. The DNAm-based risk score might be informative for risk assessment and stratification.

DNA methylation is modulated by environmental factors and has a role in many complex diseases. Here, the authors find that methylation at specific DNA sites is associated with all-cause mortality, and a methylation-based risk score may be informative for risk assessment and stratification.

Hospital admissions by the oldest old: Past trends in one of the most ageing countries in the world

AIM

To examine discharges of octogenarians, nonagenarians and centenarians from Portuguese public hospitals, namely admission type, principal diagnoses, comorbidities and length of stay.

METHODS

The present study used administrative data from public acute care hospitals in the Portuguese National Health Service. All discharges of persons aged ≥80 years between 2000 and 2014 were analyzed. HCUP Clinical Classifications Software was considered to aggregate principal diagnosis, and comorbidities were assessed using the Charlson Comorbidity Index computed using International Classification of Diseases 9th Revision Clinical Modification codes.

RESULTS

A total of 2 494 924 discharges of persons aged 80 years or older were registered. Most (73.7%) referred to inpatient episodes, of which 73% were unplanned and medical (non-surgical). Pneumonia (12.2%), acute cerebrovascular disease (7.1%) and non-hypertensive cardiac heart failure (5.3%) were the most common principal diagnoses among inpatient episodes. Congestive heart failure and diabetes without chronic complications were the two most frequent comorbidities (16.6%), and discharge diagnoses with higher median length of stay were tuberculosis, burns, and infective arthritis and osteomyelitis.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of hospitalizations of the oldest old has suffered a significant increase in the past few years, reinforcing the need for healthcare services being prepared to the specificities of the oldest old population. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 2255-2265.

Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.

DESIGN

In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.

SETTING

Denmark.

PARTICIPANTS

All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy.

MEASUREMENTS

Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.

RESULTS

Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.

CONCLUSION

Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.

Age and Outcomes Associated with BP in Patients with Incident CKD

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Hypertension is the most important treatable risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. Many patients with CKD are elderly, but the ideal BP in these individuals is unknown.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

From among 339,887 patients with incident eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), we examined associations of systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) with all-cause mortality, incident coronary heart disease (CHD), ischemic strokes, and ESRD from the time of developing CKD until the end of follow-up (July 26, 2013, for mortality, CHD, and stroke, and December 31, 2011, for ESRD) in multivariable-adjusted survival models categorized by patients' age.

RESULTS

Of the total cohort, 300,424 (88%) had complete data for multivariable analysis. Both SBP and DBP showed a U-shaped association with mortality. SBP displayed a linear association with CHD, stroke, and ESRD, whereas DBP showed no consistent association with either. SBP>140 mmHg was associated with higher incidence of all examined outcomes, but with an incremental attenuation of the observed risk in older compared with younger patients (P<0.05 for interaction) The adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with SBP≥170 mmHg (compared with 130-139 mmHg) in patients <50, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and ≥80 years were 1.95 (1.34 to 2.84), 2.01 (1.75 to 2.30), 1.68 (1.49 to 1.89), 1.39 (1.25 to 1.54), and 1.30 (1.17 to 1.44), respectively. The risk of incident CHD, stroke, and ESRD was incrementally higher with higher SBP in patients aged <80 years but showed no consistent association in those aged ≥80 years (P<0.05 for interaction for all outcomes).

CONCLUSIONS

In veterans with incident CKD, SBP showed different associations in older versus younger patients. The association of higher SBP with adverse outcomes was present but markedly reduced in older individuals, especially in those aged ≥80 years. Elevated DBP showed no consistent association with vascular outcomes in patients with incident CKD.

Evidence of functional declining and global comorbidity measured at baseline proved to be the strongest predictors for long-term death in elderly community residents aged 85 years: a 5-year follow-up evaluation, the OCTABAIX study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of functional impairment, chronic conditions, and laboratory biomarkers of aging for predicting 5-year mortality in the elderly aged 85 years.

METHODS

Predictive value for mortality of different geriatric assessments carried out during the OCTABAIX study was evaluated after 5 years of follow-up in 328 subjects aged 85 years. Measurements included assessment of functional status comorbidity, along with laboratory tests on vitamin D, cholesterol, CD4/CD8 ratio, hemoglobin, and serum thyrotropin.

RESULTS

Overall, the mortality rate after 5 years of follow-up was 42.07%. Bivariate analysis showed that patients who survived were predominantly female (P=0.02), and they showed a significantly better baseline functional status for both basic (P<0.001) and instrumental (P<0.001) activities of daily living (Barthel and Lawton index), better cognitive performance (Spanish version of the Mini-Mental State Examination) (P<0.001), lower comorbidity conditions (Charlson) (P<0.001), lower nutritional risk (Mini Nutritional Assessment) (P<0.001), lower risk of falls (Tinetti gait scale) (P<0.001), less percentage of heart failure (P=0.03) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P=0.03), and took less chronic prescription drugs (P=0.002) than nonsurvivors. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified a decreased score in the Lawton index (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.91) and higher comorbidity conditions (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.33) as independent predictors of mortality at 5 years in the studied population.

CONCLUSION

The ability to perform instrumental activities of daily living and the global comorbidity assessed at baseline were the predictors of death, identified in our 85-year-old community-dwelling subjects after 5 years of follow-up.

Health behaviors and demographic factors of chronic health conditions among elderly veteran men

As male veterans age, there are unique opportunities for health-related prevention efforts to be introduced throughout the life cycle to ameliorate the effects of chronic health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, asthma, arthritis, and diabetes. This study analyzed data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2012) with a sample of 27,187 male veterans aged 65-84 years and 4,079 male veterans over 85 years of age. The study examined associations between behaviors, demographics, and five chronic health conditions with variables that included marital status, health insurance coverage, alcohol consumption, smoking history, and income levels. These associations varied between the two age groups, suggesting the need for intervention with veterans across their lifespans. Public health social workers could help veterans modify their health behaviors to prevent the occurrence or worsening of chronic health conditions over time and across the aging process.

Total Joint Arthroplasty in Nonagenarians: What Are the Risks?

With recent increases in life expectancy in the United States, the number of nonagenarians (age 90-99 years) presenting for lower extremity joint arthroplasty (TJA) will likely rise. Utilizing the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we compared 30-day outcomes of TJA between nonagenarians and controls (age <90 years). Nonagenarians had lower mean BMI, no difference in mean number of comorbidities, and shorter mean operation time. Compared to controls, nonagenarians had longer mean length-of-stay, higher readmission rate, and higher risk of postoperative adverse events. Given these findings, orthopaedic surgeons should be aware of the increased risks of TJA in nonagenarians, and should discuss these risks with potential surgical candidates during a shared decision-making process.

Predictors of 49-month mortality in Chinese nonagenarians and centenarians in PLAD study

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether a set of well-known predictors of mortality in younger elderly also maintain their importance in Chinese oldest old group.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study of 1401 inhabitants aged 90 and older were conducted in the area of Dujiangyan, China. 825 subjects participated and were followed up for vital status after 49 months. Professional interviewers collected baseline data concerning socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits, physical factors and geriatric assessment. Bivariate analysis was conducted between survivors and deceased. Cox regression models were used to evaluate predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

Four hundred and thirty-six (52.8%) of 825 participants eligible for the analysis died during the 49 months of follow-up period. Older age, comorbidity, lower MMSE score, lower ADL and IADL scores increased the risk of mortality in the study group. Multivariate analyses showed older age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.07) and comorbidity (HR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.17) were associated with mortality while female gender (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.43-0.86), taking exercise (HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.64-1.01) and higher MMSE scores (HR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99) showed a positive effect on survival.

CONCLUSION

In Chinese nonagenarians and centenarians, age, gender, taking exercise, cognitive impairment and comorbidity at baseline show predictive power of oldest old mortality.

Functional Status and Social Contact Among Older Adults

This article tests whether functional status is associated with likelihood of social contact among older adults. Data come from the Second Longitudinal Study on Aging, a longitudinal nationally representative sample of 9,447 noninstitutionalized individuals aged 70 and over at baseline in 1995. Functional status is measured using an index of activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Social contact is measured by asking respondents whether they had gotten together socially or talked on the phone with friends/neighbors or family in the past 2 weeks. Greater number of functional limitations is associated with a decreased likelihood of social contact at follow-up via the phone with friends (odd ratio [OR] = 0.94, p < .01) and family (OR = 0.96, p < .01), and a decreased likelihood of getting together with friends (OR = 0.93, p < .01) and family (OR = 0.97, p < .01). Results indicate that functional limitations have a broad impact on self-reported social contact among older adults.

Functional Status Outperforms Comorbidities in Predicting Acute Care Readmissions in Medically Complex Patients

OBJECTIVE

To examine functional status versus medical comorbidities as predictors of acute care readmissions in medically complex patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective database study.

SETTING

U.S. inpatient rehabilitation facilities.

PARTICIPANTS

Subjects included 120,957 patients in the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation admitted to inpatient rehabilitation facilities under the medically complex impairment group code between 2002 and 2011.

INTERVENTIONS

A Basic Model based on gender and functional status was developed using logistic regression to predict the odds of 3-, 7-, and 30-day readmission from inpatient rehabilitation facilities to acute care hospitals. Functional status was measured by the FIM(®) motor score. The Basic Model was compared to six other predictive models-three Basic Plus Models that added a comorbidity measure to the Basic Model and three Gender-Comorbidity Models that included only gender and a comorbidity measure. The three comorbidity measures used were the Elixhauser index, Deyo-Charlson index, and Medicare comorbidity tier system. The c-statistic was the primary measure of model performance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We investigated 3-, 7-, and 30-day readmission to acute care hospitals from inpatient rehabilitation facilities.

RESULTS

Basic Model c-statistics predicting 3-, 7-, and 30-day readmissions were 0.69, 0.64, and 0.65, respectively. The best-performing Basic Plus Model (Basic+Elixhauser) c-statistics were only 0.02 better than the Basic Model, and the best-performing Gender-Comorbidity Model (Gender+Elixhauser) c-statistics were more than 0.07 worse than the Basic Model.

CONCLUSIONS

Readmission models based on functional status consistently outperform models based on medical comorbidities. There is opportunity to improve current national readmission risk models to more accurately predict readmissions by incorporating functional data.

Longitudinal changes in mobility among nonagenarians: the Vitality 90+ Study

Background

Several studies have focused on predictors of mobility limitations and disabilities. Yet little is known about the pace and patterns of mobility changes among very old people. This study examined changes in functional mobility among individuals aged 90 years and older during a 2-9-year follow-up. In addition, we were interested in the patterns of mobility changes.

Methods

Data were collected through a mailed questionnaire in the years 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2010. The study population (n = 948) consisted of individuals from three cohorts (2001, 2003, 2007) who participated in at least two survey rounds and answered the mobility questions. The length of the follow-up varied from 2–9 years between individuals as well as according to how many times an individual took part in the survey. Multilevel ordinal logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the effects of time, age, gender, cohort and chronic conditions on changes in mobility.

Results

At the baseline, “younger” old people, men and individuals in the cohorts for 2003 and 2007 had significantly better mobility compared with women, older individuals and individuals in the 2001 cohort. In addition, individuals with fewer chronic conditions had better mobility than those with more diseases. Mobility declined for most of the participants during the follow-up. The difference in the change in mobility over time for gender, age or chronic conditions was not statistically significant. The analyses were performed with a subgroup of participants aged 90–91 years at the baseline, and results did not differ substantially from the results for the entire study sample. However, the effect of chronic conditions on the change in mobility was statistically significant among participants aged 90-91years.

Conclusions

No differences were observed in the rate of mobility decline over time between age or gender. The effect of chronic conditions on the change in mobility was significant only among individuals aged 90–91 years. The prevention efforts are important and should focus even more, also among the oldest-old, on additional modifiable risk factors such as maintaining muscle strength.

Geriatric conditions, rather than multimorbidity, as predictors of disability and mortality among octogenarians: A population-based cohort study

AIM

To examine the impact of geriatric conditions and multimorbidity on the risk of incident disability and mortality among young-old and old-old adults.

METHODS

The present study used nationally-representative data from the "Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan" for the years 2003 and 2007. Non-disabled older adults were divided into two age groups (65-79 years and ≥80 years). Chronic morbidities and geriatric conditions were assessed in 2003. Incident disability was defined as dependency in one or more activities of daily living in 2007. Vital statistics of the participants was linked to death registration data through 31 December 2007. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression were used to determine the effect of multimorbidity and geriatric conditions on health outcomes.

RESULTS

Among those aged 65-79 years (n = 1874), the presentation of multimorbidity or two or more geriatric conditions was related to incident disability. Among octogenarians, the presentation of one or more geriatric conditions, but not multimorbidity, was shown to be independently associated with the risk of disability. Multimorbidity was related to a higher adjusted risk of mortality in the young-old group (hazard ratio 1.54; 95% confidence interval 1.1-2.2) but not in the old-old group. Among octogenarians, those with two or more geriatric conditions had a higher adjusted risk of mortality (hazard ratio 1.7; 95% confidence interval 1.2-2.5), compared with those with 0-1 geriatric conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of incident disability and mortality increased in octogenarians with geriatric conditions, but not in cases with multimorbidity.