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Ewusie JE, Soobiah C, Blondal E, Beyene J, Thabane L, Hamid JS. Methods, Applications and Challenges in the Analysis of Interrupted Time Series Data: A Scoping Review. J Multidiscip Healthc 2020; 13:411-423. [PMID: 32494150 PMCID: PMC7231782 DOI: 10.2147/jmdh.s241085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2019] [Accepted: 04/17/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Interrupted time series (ITS) designs are robust quasi-experimental designs commonly used to evaluate the impact of interventions and programs implemented in healthcare settings. This scoping review aims to 1) identify and summarize existing methods used in the analysis of ITS studies conducted in health research, 2) elucidate their strengths and limitations, 3) describe their applications in health research and 4) identify any methodological gaps and challenges. DESIGN Scoping review. DATA SOURCES Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, JSTOR, PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library from inception until September 2017. STUDY SELECTION Studies in health research involving ITS methods or reporting on the application of ITS designs. DATA EXTRACTION Screening of studies was completed independently and in duplicate by two reviewers. One reviewer extracted the data from relevant studies in consultations with a second reviewer. Results of the review were presented with respect to methodological and application areas, and data were summarized using descriptive statistics. RESULTS A total of 1389 articles were included, of which 98.27% (N=1365) were application papers. Segmented linear regression was the most commonly used method (26%, N=360). A small percentage (1.73%, N=24) were methods papers, of which 11 described either the development of novel methods or improvement of existing methods, 7 adapted methods from other areas of statistics, while 6 provided comparative assessment of conventional ITS methods. CONCLUSION A significantly increasing trend in ITS use over time is observed, where its application in health research almost tripled within the last decade. Several statistical methods are available for analyzing ITS data. Researchers should consider the types of data and validate the required assumptions for the various methods. There is a significant methodological gap in ITS analysis involving aggregated data, where analyses involving such data did not account for heterogeneity across patients and hospital settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joycelyne E Ewusie
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Charlene Soobiah
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation (IHPME), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Erik Blondal
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation (IHPME), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Joseph Beyene
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lehana Thabane
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Biostatistics Unit, Father Sean O’Sullivan Research Centre, St Joseph’s Healthcare, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jemila S Hamid
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Clinical Research Unit, Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Rogers Van Katwyk S, Grimshaw JM, Nkangu M, Nagi R, Mendelson M, Taljaard M, Hoffman SJ. Government policy interventions to reduce human antimicrobial use: A systematic review and evidence map. PLoS Med 2019; 16:e1002819. [PMID: 31185011 PMCID: PMC6559631 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2018] [Accepted: 05/03/2019] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Growing political attention to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) offers a rare opportunity for achieving meaningful action. Many governments have developed national AMR action plans, but most have not yet implemented policy interventions to reduce antimicrobial overuse. A systematic evidence map can support governments in making evidence-informed decisions about implementing programs to reduce AMR, by identifying, describing, and assessing the full range of evaluated government policy options to reduce antimicrobial use in humans. METHODS AND FINDINGS Seven databases were searched from inception to January 28, 2019, (MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, PAIS Index, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and PubMed). We identified studies that (1) clearly described a government policy intervention aimed at reducing human antimicrobial use, and (2) applied a quantitative design to measure the impact. We found 69 unique evaluations of government policy interventions carried out across 4 of the 6 WHO regions. These evaluations included randomized controlled trials (n = 4), non-randomized controlled trials (n = 3), controlled before-and-after designs (n = 7), interrupted time series designs (n = 25), uncontrolled before-and-after designs (n = 18), descriptive designs (n = 10), and cohort designs (n = 2). From these we identified 17 unique policy options for governments to reduce the human use of antimicrobials. Many studies evaluated public awareness campaigns (n = 17) and antimicrobial guidelines (n = 13); however, others offered different policy options such as professional regulation, restricted reimbursement, pay for performance, and prescription requirements. Identifying these policies can inform the development of future policies and evaluations in different contexts and health systems. Limitations of our study include the possible omission of unpublished initiatives, and that policies not evaluated with respect to antimicrobial use have not been captured in this review. CONCLUSIONS To our knowledge this is the first study to provide policy makers with synthesized evidence on specific government policy interventions addressing AMR. In the future, governments should ensure that AMR policy interventions are evaluated using rigorous study designs and that study results are published. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION PROSPERO CRD42017067514.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan Rogers Van Katwyk
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- Global Strategy Lab, Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, Faculty of Health and Osgoode Hall Law School, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jeremy M. Grimshaw
- Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Miriam Nkangu
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ranjana Nagi
- Global Strategy Lab, Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, Faculty of Health and Osgoode Hall Law School, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Marc Mendelson
- Division of Infectious Diseases and HIV Medicine, Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Monica Taljaard
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Steven J. Hoffman
- Global Strategy Lab, Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, Faculty of Health and Osgoode Hall Law School, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, and McMaster Health Forum, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Global Health & Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Weston EJ, Workowski K, Torrone E, Weinstock H, Stenger MR. Adherence to CDC Recommendations for the Treatment of Uncomplicated Gonorrhea - STD Surveillance Network, United States, 2016. MMWR-MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT 2018; 67:473-476. [PMID: 29698384 PMCID: PMC5919606 DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6716a4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
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Forster R, Ng D, Upton A, Franklin R, Thomas M. Treatment of gonorrhoea in Auckland, New Zealand: marked variation in prescriber adherence to treatment guidelines. Intern Med J 2018; 47:640-648. [PMID: 28345188 DOI: 10.1111/imj.13433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2017] [Revised: 03/21/2017] [Accepted: 03/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The relentless emergence and spread of strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae that are resistant to many antimicrobial agents has led to frequent changes in treatment guidelines, with a consequent risk that prescribers may not be aware of current guidelines. AIM To determine the proportion of patients with gonorrhoea who were treated with a regimen consistent with the New Zealand Sexual Health Society (NZSHS) guidelines. METHODS We audited the treatment given to adult patients with laboratory-proven gonorrhoea in Auckland, New Zealand, during the first 6 months of 2015. RESULTS Treatment compliant with the current NZSHS guidelines was administered in only 65% (458/706) episodes overall. Guideline-compliant treatment was much more likely to be prescribed for patients who presented to a sexual health clinic (89%) than for patients who presented to either a general practice or other community clinic (52%) or to a hospital (56%) (P < 0.0001). Overall, 52 of 706 (7%) episodes were not treated with any antimicrobial regimen by the service that diagnosed the patients' gonorrhoea, 13 of 62 (21%) episodes in patients who presented to a hospital, 34 of 403 (8%) episodes in patients who presented to a general practice or other community clinic and 5 of 241 (2%) episodes in patients who presented to a sexual health clinic (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION Low levels of compliance with treatment guidelines increase the risk that antibiotic-resistant strains of N. gonorrhoeae will spread within the Auckland region. Improved compliance with treatment guidelines, particularly in patients who present either to general practice or to hospitals, is necessary to maintain the efficacy of current treatment regimens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rose Forster
- Auckland Sexual Health Service, Auckland District Health Board, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Diana Ng
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Pathology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Arlo Upton
- Department of Microbiology, Labtests, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Rick Franklin
- Auckland Sexual Health Service, Auckland District Health Board, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Mark Thomas
- Department of Molecular Medicine and Pathology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
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Dickson C, Taljaard M, Friedman DS, Metz G, Wong T, Grimshaw JM. The antibiotic management of gonorrhoea in Ontario, Canada following multiple changes in guidelines: an interrupted time-series analysis. Sex Transm Infect 2017; 93:561-565. [PMID: 28844044 DOI: 10.1136/sextrans-2017-053224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2017] [Revised: 07/07/2017] [Accepted: 07/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study assessed adherence with first-line gonorrhoea treatment recommendations in Ontario, Canada, following recent guideline changes due to antibiotic resistance. METHODS We used interrupted times-series analyses to analyse treatment data for cases of uncomplicated gonorrhoea reported in Ontario, Canada, between January 2006 and May 2014. We assessed adherence with first-line treatment according to the guidelines in place at the time and the use of specific antibiotics over time. We used the introduction of new recommendations in the Canadian Guidelines for Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2008 and 2011 and the release of the province of Ontario's Guidelines for the Treatment and Management of Gonococcal Infections in Ontario in 2013 as interruptions in the time-series analysis. RESULTS Overall, 34 287 gonorrhoea cases were reported between 1 January 2006 and 31 May 2014. Treatment data were available for 32 312 (94.2%). Our analysis included 32 272 (94.1%) cases without either a conjunctival or disseminated infection. Following the release of the 2011 recommendations, adherence with first-line recommendations immediately decreased to below 30%. Adherence slowly increased but did not reach baseline levels before the 2013 guidelines were released. Following release of the 2013 guidelines, adherence again decreased; adherence is slowly recovering but by May 2014, was only approximately 60%. CONCLUSIONS Due to concerns about antibiotic resistance, gonorrhoea treatment guidelines need to be updated regularly and rapidly adopted in practice. Our study showed poor adherence following dissemination of updated guidelines. Over a year after the latest Ontario guidelines were released, 40% of patients did not receive first-line treatment, putting them at risk of treatment failure and potentially promoting further drug resistance. Greater attention should be devoted to dissemination and implementation of new guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine Dickson
- Medical Resident,School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Alta Vista Campus Room, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Monica Taljaard
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, The Ottawa Hospital, Civic Campus, Ottawa, Canada
| | | | - Gila Metz
- Medical Director for Sexual Health, Ottawa Public Health, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Tom Wong
- Office of Population and Public Health, First Nations and Inuit Health Branch, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Jeremy M Grimshaw
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Center for Practice Changing Research Building, The Ottawa Hospital, General Campus, Ottawa, Canada
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Verifying correct treatment of reported cases of gonorrhea may slow antibiotic resistance, but verification remains challenging for many sexually transmitted disease (STD) programs due to increased laboratory case reporting and decreased provider reporting. The objectives of this study were to document current reported levels of correct treatment of gonorrhea and to identify approaches and barriers to verifying treatment. METHODS We reviewed funding opportunity reports for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's directly funded STD programs and conducted key-informant interviews to elicit further treatment verification details. RESULTS Among STD programs containing at least one high-morbidity area, a median of 63.0% of gonorrhea cases were reported as treated correctly with a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recommended regimen, although the range reported was wide (11.2%-95.2%). Among cases with some type of documented treatment information, the proportion treated correctly was higher (median, 82.2%) but the use of correct treatment was quite variable among STD programs (range, 56.4%-98.5%). Approaches to verifying gonorrhea treatment included modifying outdated surveillance systems and educating providers about case reporting to enhance the passive capture of treatment information as well as active approaches that supported routine and immediate communication with providers regarding cases missing treatment information. Barriers to treatment verification included low levels of provider reporting, outdated surveillance systems, and human and financial resource constraints. CONCLUSIONS Baseline assessments revealed that levels of correct gonorrhea treatment vary widely, even after accounting for those cases missing treatment information. Baseline data can help determine whether the active verification of treatment of all cases is warranted.
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Zhang X, Hou F, Qiao Z, Li X, Zhou L, Liu Y, Zhang T. Temporal and long-term trend analysis of class C notifiable diseases in China from 2009 to 2014. BMJ Open 2016; 6:e011038. [PMID: 27797981 PMCID: PMC5073496 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Time series models are effective tools for disease forecasting. This study aims to explore the time series behaviour of 11 notifiable diseases in China and to predict their incidence through effective models. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS The Chinese Ministry of Health started to publish class C notifiable diseases in 2009. The monthly reported case time series of 11 infectious diseases from the surveillance system between 2009 and 2014 was collected. METHODS We performed a descriptive and a time series study using the surveillance data. Decomposition methods were used to explore (1) their seasonality expressed in the form of seasonal indices and (2) their long-term trend in the form of a linear regression model. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been established for each disease. RESULTS The number of cases and deaths caused by hand, foot and mouth disease ranks number 1 among the detected diseases. It occurred most often in May and July and increased, on average, by 0.14126/100 000 per month. The remaining incidence models show good fit except the influenza and hydatid disease models. Both the hydatid disease and influenza series become white noise after differencing, so no available ARIMA model can be fitted for these two diseases. CONCLUSION Time series analysis of effective surveillance time series is useful for better understanding the occurrence of the 11 types of infectious disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xingyu Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology & Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
- Department of Anatomy with Radiology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Fengsu Hou
- Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Zhijiao Qiao
- Department of Epidemiology & Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Xiaosong Li
- Department of Epidemiology & Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Lijun Zhou
- Department of Respiratory, Sichuan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Sichuan, China
| | - Yuanyuan Liu
- Department of Epidemiology & Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology & Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
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Kirkcaldy RD, Harvey A, Papp JR, Del Rio C, Soge OO, Holmes KK, Hook EW, Kubin G, Riedel S, Zenilman J, Pettus K, Sanders T, Sharpe S, Torrone E. Neisseria gonorrhoeae Antimicrobial Susceptibility Surveillance - The Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project, 27 Sites, United States, 2014. MMWR. SURVEILLANCE SUMMARIES : MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT. SURVEILLANCE SUMMARIES 2016; 65:1-19. [PMID: 27414503 DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.ss6507a1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 193] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
PROBLEM/CONDITION Gonorrhea is the second most commonly reported notifiable disease in the United States; 350,062 gonorrhea cases were reported in 2014. Sexually transmitted infections caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae are a cause of pelvic inflammatory disease in women, which can lead to serious reproductive complications including tubal infertility, ectopic pregnancy, and chronic pelvic pain. Prevention of sequelae and of transmission to sexual partners relies largely on prompt detection and effective antimicrobial treatment. However, treatment has been compromised by the absence of routine antimicrobial susceptibility testing in clinical care and evolution of antimicrobial resistance to the antibiotics used to treat gonorrhea. PERIOD COVERED 2014. DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEM The Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP) was established in 1986 as a sentinel surveillance system to monitor trends in antimicrobial susceptibilities of N. gonorrhoeae strains in the United States. Each month, N. gonorrhoeae isolates are collected from up to the first 25 men with gonococcal urethritis attending each of the participating sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics at 27 sites. The number of participating sites has varied over time (21-30 per year). Selected demographic and clinical data are abstracted from medical records. Isolates are tested for antimicrobial susceptibility using agar dilution at one of five regional laboratories. RESULTS A total of 5,093 isolates were collected in 2014. Of these, 25.3% were resistant to tetracycline, 19.2% to ciprofloxacin, and 16.2% to penicillin (plasmid-based, chromosomal, or both). Reduced azithromycin susceptibility (Azi-RS) (defined as minimum inhibitory concentration [MIC] ≥2.0 µg/mL) increased from 0.6% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014. The increase occurred in all geographic regions, but was greatest in the Midwest, and among all categories of sex of sex partners (men who have sex with men [MSM], men who have sex with men and women [MSMW], and men who have sex with women [MSW]). No Azi-RS isolates exhibited reduced cefixime or ceftriaxone susceptibility (Cfx-RS and Cro-RS, respectively). The prevalence of Cfx-RS (MIC ≥0.25 µg/mL) increased from 0.1% in 2006 to 1.4% in both 2010 and 2011, decreased to 0.4% in 2013, and increased to 0.8% in 2014. Cro-RS (MIC ≥0.125 µg/mL) increased following a similar pattern but at lesser percentages (increased from 0.1% in 2008 to 0.4% in 2011 and decreased to 0.1% in 2013 and 2014). The percentage of isolates resistant to tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, penicillin, or all three antimicrobials, was greater in isolates from MSM than from MSW. INTERPRETATION This is the first report to present comprehensive surveillance data from GISP and summarize gonococcal susceptibility over time, as well as underscore the history and public health implications of emerging cephalosporin resistance. Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns vary by geographic region within the United States and by sex of sex partner. Because dual therapy with ceftriaxone plus azithromycin is the only recommended gonorrhea treatment, increases in azithromycin and cephalosporin MICs are cause for concern that resistance to these antimicrobial agents might be emerging. It is unclear whether increases in the percentage of isolates with Azi-RS mark the beginning of a trend. The percentage of isolates with elevated cefixime MICs increased during 2009-2010, then decreased during 2012-2013 after treatment recommendations were changed in 2010 to recommend dual therapy (with a cephalosporin and a second antibiotic) and a higher dosage of ceftriaxone. Subsequently, the treatment recommendations were changed again in 2012 to no longer recommend cefixime as part of first-line therapy (leaving ceftriaxone-based dual therapy as the only recommended therapy). Despite the MIC decrease (i.e., trend of improved cefixime susceptibility) during 2012-2013, the increase in the number of strains with Cfx-RS in 2014 underscores the potential threat of cephalosporin-resistant N. gonorrhoeae. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION The National Strategy for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria identifies prevention, rapid detection, and control of outbreaks of ceftriaxone-resistant N. gonorrhoeae infection as a priority for U.S. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION Antimicrobial susceptibility surveillance is conducted to guide development of treatment recommendations for effective therapy and prevention of complications from and transmission of gonorrhea. Federal agencies can use GISP data to develop national treatment recommendations and set research and prevention priorities. Local and state health departments can use GISP data to determine allocation of STD prevention services and resources, guide prevention planning, and communicate best treatment practices to health care providers. Continued surveillance, appropriate treatment, development of new antibiotics, and prevention of transmission remain the best strategies to reduce gonorrhea incidence and morbidity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert D Kirkcaldy
- Division of STD Prevention, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia
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Adherence to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Gonococcal Treatment Guidelines Among Chicago Health Care Providers, 2011-2012. Sex Transm Dis 2016; 42:422-8. [PMID: 26165433 DOI: 10.1097/olq.0000000000000310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Expansion of antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae requires rapid adaptation of treatment guidelines and responsive provider practice. We evaluated patient factors associated with provider adherence to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gonococcal treatment recommendations among Chicago providers in 2011 to 2012. METHODS Laboratory-confirmed cases of uncomplicated urogenital gonorrhea were classified via surveillance data as originating from Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) or non-CDPH providers. Recommended treatment was determined according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sexually transmitted disease treatment guidelines: April 2011-July 2012 (period 1) and August-December 2012 (period 2, after August 2012 revision). Multivariable log-binomial regression identified factors associated with recommended treatment over time, stratified by provider type. RESULTS April 2011 through December 2012, 16,646 laboratory-confirmed gonorrhea cases were identified, of which 9597 (57.7%) had treatment information: 2169 CDPH cases and 7428 non-CDPH cases. Documented recommended treatment increased for CDPH (period 1: 71.3%, period 2: 80.8%; P < 0.01) and non-CDPH providers (period 1: 63.5%, period 2: 68.9%; P < 0.01). Among CDPH cases, statistically significant factors associated with recommended treatment were male sex (adjusted prevalence rate ratio [aPRR], 1.16) white versus black race (aPRR, 0.68), same-day treatment (aPRR, 1.07), and period 2 (aPRR, 1.11). Among non-CDPH cases, statistically significant factors were as follows: male sex (aPRR, 1.10), other versus black race (aPRR, 0.91), same-day treatment (aPRR, 1.31), greater number of within-facility reported cases (aPRRs ranging from 1.22 to 1.41), and at least 50% within-facility missing treatment data (aPRR, 0.84). CONCLUSIONS Recommended treatment improved over time, yet remains suboptimal. Efforts to reduce variability and improve provider adherence to recommended treatment are urgently needed.
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Zhang X, Zhang T, Pei J, Liu Y, Li X, Medrano-Gracia P. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0149401. [PMID: 26901682 PMCID: PMC4763154 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2015] [Accepted: 02/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. METHODS In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). RESULTS The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. CONCLUSION Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xingyu Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R.China
- Department of Anatomy with Radiology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R.China
| | - Jiao Pei
- Department of Science and Education, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, Sichuan, China
| | - Yuanyuan Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R.China
| | - Xiaosong Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R.China
- * E-mail:
| | - Pau Medrano-Gracia
- Department of Anatomy with Radiology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
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Owusu-Edusei K, Carroll DS, Gift TL. Examining Fluoroquinolone Claims Among Gonorrhea-Associated Prescription Drug Claims, 2000-2010. Am J Prev Med 2015; 49:761-764. [PMID: 26190198 PMCID: PMC6805127 DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2015.04.031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2014] [Revised: 04/08/2015] [Accepted: 04/27/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION After the release of CDC's revised gonorrhea treatment guidelines in April 2007, a study reported the declining use of fluoroquinolones to treat gonorrhea among health departments participating in the Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance Network. In this study, we examine the proportion of fluoroquinolone claims among gonorrhea-associated prescription drug claims from a large insurance database from 2000 through 2010. METHODS We extracted drug claims associated with gonorrhea diagnosis claims from the MarketScan database for 2000-2010 and calculated the proportion of the drug claims for fluoroquinolones on a monthly basis. We then used an interrupted time series analysis to investigate trend characteristics of fluoroquinolone claims before and after the gonorrhea treatment guidelines were revised in April 2007. RESULTS Although there was a monthly decline in the proportion of fluoroquinolone claims before April 2007 (-0.11 percentage points, p<0.01), results indicate a sevenfold (-0.78 percentage points, p<0.01) increase in the rate of decline after the revised guidelines were released in April 2007. We did not find any sudden drop (immediate or delayed) in the proportion of fluoroquinolones after April 2007, implying a gradual permanent decline over the analytic period. CONCLUSIONS Our results are consistent with the findings of the previous study and indicate a gradual and permanent decline (over the analytic period) in the proportion of fluoroquinolone claims among gonorrhea-associated prescription drug claims. However, because this is a convenience sample of claims data, these findings cannot be generalized to the entire privately insured population in the U.S.
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Antimicrobial stewardship in outpatient settings: a systematic review. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2015; 36:142-52. [PMID: 25632996 DOI: 10.1017/ice.2014.41] [Citation(s) in RCA: 192] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Evaluate the effect of outpatient antimicrobial stewardship programs on prescribing, patient, microbial outcomes, and costs. DESIGN Systematic review METHODS Search of MEDLINE (2000 through November 2013), Cochrane Library, and reference lists of relevant studies. We included English language studies with patient populations relevant to the United States (eg, infectious conditions, prescription services) evaluating stewardship programs in outpatient settings and reporting outcomes of interest. Data regarding study characteristics and outcomes were extracted and organized by intervention type. RESULTS We identified 50 studies eligible for inclusion, with most (29 of 50; 58%) reporting on respiratory tract infections, followed by multiple/unspecified infections (17 of 50; 34%). We found medium-strength evidence that stewardship programs incorporating communication skills training and laboratory testing are associated with reductions in antimicrobial use, and low-strength evidence that other stewardship interventions are associated with improved prescribing. Patient-centered outcomes, which were infrequently reported, were not adversely affected. Medication costs were generally lower with stewardship interventions, but overall program costs were rarely reported. No studies reported microbial outcomes, and data regarding outpatient settings other than primary care clinics are limited. CONCLUSIONS Low- to moderate-strength evidence suggests that antimicrobial stewardship programs in outpatient settings improve antimicrobial prescribing without adversely effecting patient outcomes. Effectiveness depends on program type. Most studies were not designed to measure patient or resistance outcomes. Data regarding sustainability and scalability of interventions are limited.
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Llata E, Bernstein KT, Kerani RP, Pathela P, Schwebke JR, Schumacher C, Stenger M, Weinstock HS. Management of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease in Selected U.S. Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinics: Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance Network, January 2010-December 2011. Sex Transm Dis 2015; 42:429-33. [PMID: 26165434 PMCID: PMC6740322 DOI: 10.1097/olq.0000000000000309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) remains an important source of preventable reproductive morbidity, but no recent studies have singularly focused on US sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics in relationship to established guidelines for diagnosis and treatment. METHODS Of the 83,076 female patients seen in 14 STD clinics participating in the STD Surveillance Network, 1080 (1.3%) were diagnosed as having PID from 2010 to 2011. A random sample of 219 (20%) women were selected, and medical records were reviewed for clinical history, examination findings, treatment, and diagnostic testing. Our primary outcomes were to evaluate how well PID diagnosis and treatment practices in STD clinic settings follow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) treatment guidelines and to describe age group-specific rates of laboratory-confirmed Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) in patients clinically diagnosed as having PID in the last 12 months, inclusive of the PID visit. RESULTS Among the 219 women, 70.3% of the cases met the CDC treatment case definition for PID, 90.4% had testing for CT and GC on the PID visit, and 68.0% were treated with a CDC-recommended outpatient regimen. In the last 12 months, 95.4% were tested for CT or GC, and positivity for either organism was 43.9% in women aged 25 years or younger with PID, compared with 19.4% of women older than 25 years with PID. CONCLUSIONS Compliance with CDC guidelines was documented for many of the women with PID, though not all. Our findings underscore the need for continued efforts to optimize quality of care and adherence to current guidance for PID management given the anticipated expertise of providers in these settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eloisa Llata
- From the *Surveillance and Data Management Branch, Division of STD Prevention (NCCHSTP), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA; †San Francisco Department of Public Health, San Francisco, CA; ‡Public Health-Seattle and King County and Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; §New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY; ¶University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL; and ∥Baltimore City Health Department and Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
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Variation in Adherence to the Treatment Guidelines for Neisseria gonorrhoeae by Clinical Practice Setting, California, 2009 to 2011. Sex Transm Dis 2014; 41:338-44. [DOI: 10.1097/olq.0000000000000113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Provider Characteristics Associated With Guideline-Nonadherent Gonorrhea Treatment, Massachusetts, 2010. Sex Transm Dis 2014; 41:133-6. [DOI: 10.1097/olq.0000000000000073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Anschuetz G, Asbel L, Salmon ME, Johnson CC. Use of First-Line Treatment for Neisseria gonorrhoeae After Treatment Guideline Changes. Sex Transm Dis 2014; 41:64-6. [DOI: 10.1097/olq.0000000000000061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Kirkcaldy RD, Kidd S, Weinstock HS, Papp JR, Bolan GA. Trends in antimicrobial resistance inNeisseria gonorrhoeaein the USA: the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP), January 2006–June 2012. Sex Transm Infect 2013; 89 Suppl 4:iv5-10. [DOI: 10.1136/sextrans-2013-051162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
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Kirkcaldy RD, Zaidi A, Hook EW, Holmes KK, Soge O, del Rio C, Hall G, Papp J, Bolan G, Weinstock HS, Weinstock HS. Neisseria gonorrhoeae antimicrobial resistance among men who have sex with men and men who have sex exclusively with women: the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project, 2005-2010. Ann Intern Med 2013; 158:321-8. [PMID: 23460055 PMCID: PMC6697257 DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-158-5-201303050-00004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gonorrhea treatment has been complicated by antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Gonococcal fluoroquinolone resistance emerged more rapidly among men who have sex with men (MSM) than men who have sex exclusively with women (MSW). OBJECTIVE To determine whether N. gonorrhoeae urethral isolates from MSM were more likely than isolates from MSW to exhibit resistance to or elevated minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of antimicrobials used to treat gonorrhea. DESIGN 6 years of surveillance data from the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project. SETTING Publicly funded sexually transmitted disease clinics in 30 U.S. cities. PATIENTS Men with a total of 34 600 episodes of symptomatic urethral gonorrhea. MEASUREMENTS Percentage of isolates exhibiting resistance or elevated MICs and adjusted odds ratios for resistance or elevated MICs among isolates from MSM compared with isolates from MSW. RESULTS In all U.S. regions except the West, isolates from MSM were significantly more likely to exhibit elevated MICs of ceftriaxone and azithromycin than isolates from MSW (P < 0.050). Isolates from MSM had a high prevalence of resistance to ciprofloxacin, penicillin, and tetracycline and were significantly more likely to exhibit antimicrobial resistance than isolates from MSW (P < 0.001). LIMITATIONS Sentinel surveillance may not be representative of all patients with gonorrhea. HIV status, travel history, and antimicrobial use data were missing for some patients. CONCLUSION Men who have sex with men are vulnerable to the emerging threat of antimicrobial-resistant N. gonorrhoeae. Because antimicrobial susceptibility testing is not routinely done in clinical practice, clinicians should monitor for treatment failures among MSM diagnosed with gonorrhea. Strengthened prevention strategies for MSM and new antimicrobial treatment options are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert D Kirkcaldy
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Mailstop E-02, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
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Stoltey JE, Barry PM. The use of cephalosporins for gonorrhea: an update on the rising problem of resistance. Expert Opin Pharmacother 2012; 13:1411-20. [PMID: 22646654 PMCID: PMC4079034 DOI: 10.1517/14656566.2012.690396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Over the last several years, Neisseria gonorrhoeae has developed decreased susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins worldwide. Gonococcal antimicrobial surveillance programs in multiple regions have documented the rise in N. gonorrhoeae isolates' minimum inhibitory concentrations to cephalosporins, and the first cases of ceftriaxone treatment failure have been reported. These developments have prompted the use of the term 'superbug' and concerns about the emergence of untreatable gonococcal infections. AREAS COVERED Since the publication of the last detailed review of the use of cephalosporins for gonorrhea in 2009, several new developments have occurred, which are detailed in this review. A variety of treatment strategies have been proposed in response to this 'superbug' threat, including increasing the dose or providing multiple doses of cephalosporins, multidrug therapy, rotating therapeutic regimens and individualized treatment based on susceptibility testing. EXPERT OPINION A robust public health response is needed that includes better diagnosis and treatment of pharyngeal gonorrhea, improved surveillance of antimicrobial resistance, informed treatment approaches and reduction of the global burden of gonococcal infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliet E Stoltey
- San Francisco Department of Public Health STD Prevention and Control Services, University of California-San Francisco, Division of Infectious Diseases, 513 Parnassus Avenue, Box 0654, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
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