Optimal Allocation of Societal HIV Prevention Resources to Reduce HIV Incidence in the United States

State AIDS Drug Assistance Programs' Contribution to the United States' Viral Suppression, 2015-2022

Background

State AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAPs) provide HIV medication access for people with HIV (PWH) with low incomes in the United States (US). We quantified the proportion of viral suppression (VS) that is from ADAP clients for 2015-2022.

Methods

For 2015-2022, we obtained viral load (VL) test results and VS data from publicly available, jurisdiction-level data on ADAP clients and PWH. We report descriptive statistics including the proportion of PWH with a VL who had VS and were supported by ADAPs.

Results

After excluding jurisdictions with missing data, PWH who were included in the analysis for each year was 63.7-96.4%. VS for PWH each year was 60-66.3%. VS for ADAP clients was 81.2%-91.4%. In all years, compared to all PWH, a lower proportion of ADAP clients had a reported VL and a higher proportion had VS. Over 2015-2022, the average proportion of PWH who were ADAP clients was 23.1%, the proportion of PWH with VLs who were ADAP clients was 22.2%, and the proportion of PWH with VS who were ADAP clients was 30.8%.

Conclusions

Almost a third of the entire VS rate was from ADAP clients, despite ADAP serving less than 25% of PWH. A much higher proportion of ADAP clients achieved VS, compared to PWH. ADAPs' impact is not due to ADAP clients being over represented among PWH with reported VLs. ADAP does not directly receive any federal Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) Initiative funding. Policymakers should examine how ADAPs can support the EHE Initiative.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in HIV Diagnosis Rates by Social Determinants of Health at the Census Tract Level Among Adults in the United States and Puerto Rico, 2021

BACKGROUND

We compared racial and ethnic disparities in HIV diagnosis rates among adults in census tracts with the most disadvantaged vs. the most advantaged levels of social determinants of health.

METHODS

In this ecologic analysis, we used the National HIV Surveillance System data from 2021 and social determinants of health data from 2017-2021 American Community Survey. We measured racial and ethnic disparities stratified by sex in the most disadvantaged quartiles and advantaged quartiles for (1) poverty, (2) education level, (3) median household income, and (4) insurance coverage. We calculated 8 relative disparity measures [Black-to-White rate ratio, Hispanic/Latino-to-White rate ratio, index of disparity (ID), population-weighted ID, mean log deviation, Theil index, population attributable proportion, Gini coefficient] and 4 absolute disparity measures (Black-to-White rate difference, Hispanic/Latino-to-White rate difference, absolute ID, and population-weighted absolute ID).

RESULTS

Comparing the most disadvantaged quartiles with the most advantaged quartiles, all 4 absolute disparity measures decreased, but 7 of the 8 relative disparity measures increased: the median percentage decreases in the absolute measures for men and women, respectively, were 38.1% and 47.6% for poverty, 12.4% and 42.6% for education level, 43.6% and 44.0% for median household income, and 44.2% and 45.4% for insurance coverage. The median percentage increases in the relative measures for men and women, respectively, were 44.3% and 61.3% for poverty, 54.9% and 95.3% for education level, 19.6% and 90.0% for median household income, and 32.8% and 46.4% for insurance coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Racial and ethnic disparities in the most disadvantaged and the most advantaged quartiles highlight the need for strategies addressing the root causes of disparities.

Concordance of HIV Prevention Advocacy Reports and its Associations with HIV Protective Behaviors

Peer advocacy can promote HIV protective behaviors, but little is known about the concordance on prevention advocacy(PA) reports between people living with HIV(PLWH) and their social network members. We examined prevalence and correlates of such concordance, and its association with the targeted HIV protective behavior of the social network member. Data were analyzed from 193 PLWH(index participants) and their 599 social network members(alters). Kappa statistics measured concordance between index and alter reports of PA in the past 3 months. Logistic and multinomial regressions evaluated the relationship between advocacy concordance and alter condom use and HIV testing behavior and correlates of PA concordance. Advocacy concordance was observed in 0.3% of index-alter dyads for PrEP discussion, 9% for condom use, 18% for HIV testing, 26% for care engagement, and 49% for antiretroviral use discussions. Fewer indexes reported condom use(23.5% vs. 28.1%;[Formula: see text]=3.7, p=0.05) and HIV testing(30.5% vs. 50.5%; [Formula: see text]=25.3, p<0.001) PA occurring. Condom advocacy concordance was higher if the index and alter were romantic partners(OR=3.50; p=0.02), and lower if the index was 10 years younger than the alter(OR=0.23; p = 0.02). Alters had higher odds of using condoms with their main partner when both reported condom advocacy compared to dyads where neither reported advocacy(OR=3.90; p<0.001) and compared to dyads where only the index reported such advocacy(OR = 3.71; p=0.01). Age difference and relationship status impact advocacy agreement, and concordant perceptions of advocacy are linked to increased HIV protective behaviors. Alters' perceptions may be crucial for behavior change, informing strategies for improving advocacy.

Trends in HIV-Related Services Offered by Substance Abuse Treatment Facilities

Introduction In the United States, persons who inject drugs (PWID) represent an increasingly vulnerable population, with a high risk of HIV transmission related to needle sharing. This paper aims to investigate the availability of HIV-related services within substance abuse treatment facilities while emphasizing the need for implementing comprehensive harm-reduction strategies in such facilities. Methods This study explores the prevalence and trends regarding HIV-related services within substance abuse treatment facilities in the United States including testing, counseling, early intervention, and medication provision. Data from the National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) were analyzed in order to assess trends in HIV-related services from 2013 to 2020. Results Facility response rates revealed an increase in the availability of HIV testing and specialized programs for individuals with HIV. However, there was a contrasting trend with the decline in early intervention and counseling services, only with a slight increase in 2020. Additionally, government-owned facilities demonstrated superior performance in delivering HIV services compared to private facilities. Conclusion This study highlights the dire need for implementing routine opt-out HIV testing within substance abuse treatment facilities in order to identify new cases. Additionally emphasized is the importance of early intervention for this at-risk population. To effectively address these challenges, we suggest considering the adoption of the "Seek, Test, Treat, Retain" model as a potential solution. Increasing access to HIV-related services within substance abuse facilities requires enhanced resource allocation as well as integrated programs. Identifying deficiencies in HIV service integration is crucial to enhancing care and reducing HIV transmission among PWID.

Optimizing health resource allocation for improving timely HIV diagnosis in China

INTRODUCTION

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) updated the 95-95-95 targets for the HIV endgame in 2030. To achieve the first target in a timely manner, we investigate the optimized strategy of resource allocation to maximize timely HIV diagnosis in 14 populations in China.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model by integrating epidemiological, demographical and behavioural data from 12 high-risk and two general populations to evaluate the impact of various resource allocation strategies of HIV testing on HIV incidence in China. We identified the optimized allocation strategy that maximizes the number of HIV diagnoses at an estimated total spending on HIV tests in China and calculated the per-capita cost of new HIV case detection.

RESULTS

We estimated that 144,795 new HIV cases may occur annually in 14 populations in China, with a total annual spending of US$2.8 billion on HIV testing. The largest proportion of spending was allocated to general males (44.0%), followed by general females (42.6%) and pregnant women (5.1%). Despite this allocation strategy, only 45.5% (65,867/144,795, timely diagnosis rate) of annual new infections were diagnosed within a year of acquisition, with a cost of $42,852 required for each new HIV case detection. By optimizing the allocation of HIV testing resources within the same spending amount, we found that general females received the highest proportion of spending allocation (45.1%), followed by low-risk men who have sex with men (13.9%) and pregnant women (8.4%). In contrast, the proportion of spending allocation for the general males decreased to 0.2%. With this optimized strategy, we estimated that 120,755 (83.4%) of annual new infections would be diagnosed within a year of acquisition, with the cost required for one HIV case detection reduced to $23,364/case. Further spending increases could allow for significant increases in HIV testing among lower-risk populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Optimizing resource allocation for HIV testing in high-risk populations would improve HIV timely diagnosis rate of new infections and reduce cost per HIV case detection.

Investigating zero transmission of HIV in the MSM population: a UK modelling case study

BACKGROUND

UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals for HIV have been surpassed in the UK, with focus now moving to ending transmission by 2030. The concept of zero transmission is complex and many factors can influence transmission. We aimed to investigate how the target of zero transmission might be reached in the UK.

METHODS

We developed a de novo Markov state transition open cohort model of HIV with a 50-year time horizon, which models six key screening, treatment and prevention parameters, including treatment-as-prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We studied the anticipated HIV epidemic trajectory over time in men who have sex with men (MSM), with and without changing the six key parameters, defining zero transmission as a 60% reduction in incidence compared with 2010 incidence.

RESULTS

Zero transmission in the MSM population was not achieved within the model's time horizon in our base case scenario, when the six key parameters were set to their 2019 values. Several future scenarios were explored, including a combination approach to preventing HIV transmission through increasing five key parameter values and considering three different TasP values; zero transmission was achieved by 2030 in the scenario where TasP was increased from its current level of 97-99%, avoiding 48,969 new HIV cases over the time horizon and reducing the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP from 13.65 to 7.53%.

CONCLUSIONS

Zero transmission in the UK MSM population can be reached by the target year of 2030 with bold changes to HIV policy. A combination approach such as the UK Government's 'Towards Zero' Action plan, impacting multiple policies and including an increase in TasP, has the potential to achieve meaningful reductions in HIV transmission and meet this ambitious goal.

Access to a novel first-line single-tablet HIV antiretroviral regimen in Affordable Care Act Marketplace plans, 2018-2020

BACKGROUND

A pillar of the United States' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative is to rapidly provide antiretroviral therapy (ART) in order to achieve HIV viral suppression. However, insurance benefit design can impede ART access. The primary objective of this study is to understand how Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace qualified health plan (QHP) formularies responded to two new ART single tablet regimens (STRs): dolutegravir/abacavir/lamivudine (DTG/ABC/3TC; approved in 2014) and bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (BIC/FTC/TAF; approved in 2018).

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive study of individual and small group QHPs to assess coverage, cost sharing (coinsurance vs. copay), specialty tiering, prior authorization, and out-of-pocket (OOP) costs for DTG/ABC/3TC and BIC/FTC/TAF. All individual and small group QHPs offered in state ACA Marketplaces from 2018-2020 were identified using plan-level formulary data from Ideon linked to end-of-year data from Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Individual Market Health Insurance Exchange (HIX).

RESULTS

For 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively, we identified 19,533, 17,007, and 21,547 QHPs. While DTG/ABC/3TC coverage was above 91% from 2018-2020, BIC/FTC/TAF coverage improved from 60 to 86%. Coverage of BIC/FTC/TAF improved in EHE priority jurisdictions from 73 to 90% driven by increased coverage with coinsurance. Although BIC/FTC/TAF had a higher wholesale acquisition cost than DTG/ABC/3TC, monthly OOP cost trends differed regionally in the Midwest but did not differ by EHE priority jurisdiction status.

CONCLUSIONS

QHP coverage of STRs is heterogeneous across the US. While coverage of BIC/FTC/TAF increased over time, many QHPs in EHE priority jurisdictions required coinsurance. Access to new ART regimens may be slowed by delayed QHP coverage and benefit design.

Economic benefits of the United States’ AIDS drug assistance Program: A systematic review of cost analyses to guide research and policy priorities

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The AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) is a $2.4 billion a year program.

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Little formal economic analysis of the ADAP in the literature.

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The few economic analyses of ADAP use 2008 or older data.

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ADAP programs’ healthcare delivery have changed substantially since 2008.

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Updated person-centered cost effectiveness models assessing ADAP are needed.

As part of the Ryan White HIV/AIDs Program, the federally-funded, state-administered AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) provides prescription drug medications, including antiretroviral therapy, for people with HIV (PWH) who are uninsured/underinsured and have a low income. ADAP expenditures are ∼$2.4 billion annually, but there is a dearth of formal economic analysis supporting the societal perspective. We conducted a systematic review of economic analyses of the United States’ AIDS Drug Assistance Program to establish future research priorities based on gaps in knowledge. We searched six electronic databases for articles published before January 2022 that met inclusion criteria. We used the 2022 Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards to assess the quality of reporting of the economic evaluations. We extracted data into categories to assess gaps and needs for future economic evaluation. Seven studies met inclusion criteria. Two used the same modeling approaches but were published with slightly different outcomes. The few economic analyses that focused solely on ADAP were conducted using 2008 or older data. The most recent study modeled the net cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) secondary to reducing new HIV cases among those virally suppressed, but did not include the economic or health benefits for PWH. ADAP programs’ delivery of antiretroviral therapy has shifted from primarily direct provision to subsidizing insurance plans. None of the models take these shifts into account. Updated person-centered cost effectiveness models assessing ADAP are needed on a national and state-by-state level to guide policy decisions and coverage determinations.

Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets

BACKGROUND

A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met.

METHODS

We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030.

RESULTS

With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Estimating the HIV Effective Reproduction Number in the United States and Evaluating HIV Elimination Strategies

CONTEXT

The reproduction number is a fundamental epidemiologic concept used to assess the potential spread of infectious diseases and whether they can be eliminated.

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the 2017 United States HIV effective reproduction number, Re, the average number of secondary infections from an infected person in a partially infected population. We analyzed the potential effects on Re of interventions aimed at improving patient flow rates along different stages of the HIV care continuum. We also examined these effects by individual transmission groups.

DESIGN

We used the HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics (HOPE) model, a compartmental model of disease progression and transmission, and the next-generation matrix method to estimate Re. We then projected the impact of changes in HIV continuum-of-care interventions on the continuum-of-care flow rates and the estimated Re in 2020.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

The HOPE model simulated the sexually active US population and persons who inject drugs, aged 13 to 64 years, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The estimated value of Re in 2017 and changes in Re in 2020 from interventions affecting the continuum-of-care flow rates.

RESULTS

Our estimated HIV Re in 2017 was 0.92 [0.82, 0.94] (base case [min, max across calibration sets]). Among the interventions considered, the most effective way to reduce Re substantially below 1.0 in 2020 was to maintain viral suppression among those receiving HIV treatment. The greatest impact on Re resulted from changing the flow rates for men who have sex with men (MSM).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that current prevention and treatment efforts may not be sufficient to move the country toward HIV elimination. Reducing Re to substantially below 1.0 may be achieved by an ongoing focus on early diagnosis, linkage to care, and sustained viral suppression especially for MSM.

Social Determinants of Health and Care Outcomes Among People With HIV in the United States

Background

Fewer than 70% of people with HIV (PWH) in the United States have achieved durable viral suppression. To end the HIV epidemic in the United States, clinicians, researchers, and public health practitioners must devise ways to remove barriers to effective HIV treatment. To identify PWH who experience challenges to accessing health care, we created a simple assessment of social determinants of health (SDOH) among PWH and examined the impact of cumulative social and economic disadvantage on key HIV care outcomes.

Methods

We used data from the 2015-2019 Medical Monitoring Project, a yearly cross-sectional survey of PWH in the United States (n = 15 964). We created a 10-item index of SDOH and assessed differences in HIV care outcomes of missed medical appointments, medication adherence, and durable viral suppression by SDOH using this index using prevalence ratios with predicted marginal means.

Results

Eighty-three percent of PWH reported at least 1 SDOH indicator. Compared with PWH who experienced none of the SDOH indicators, people who experienced 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more SDOH indicators were 1.6, 2.1, 2.6, and 3.6 as likely to miss a medical appointment in the prior year; 11%, 17%, 20%, and 31% less likely to report excellent adherence in the prior 30 days; and 2%, 4%, 10%, and 20% less likely to achieve durable viral suppression in the prior year, respectively.

Conclusions

Among PWH, cumulative exposure to social and economic disadvantage impacts care outcomes in a dose-dependent fashion. A simple index may identify PWH experiencing barriers to HIV care, adherence, and durable viral suppression in need of critical supportive services.

Progression and transmission of HIV (PATH 4.0)-A new agent-based evolving network simulation for modeling HIV transmission clusters

We present the Progression and Transmission of HIV (PATH 4.0), a simulation tool for analyses of cluster detection and intervention strategies. Molecular clusters are groups of HIV infections that are genetically similar, indicating rapid HIV transmission where HIV prevention resources are needed to improve health outcomes and prevent new infections. PATH 4.0 was constructed using a newly developed agent-based evolving network modeling (ABENM) technique and evolving contact network algorithm (ECNA) for generating scale-free networks. ABENM and ECNA were developed to facilitate simulation of transmission networks for low-prevalence diseases, such as HIV, which creates computational challenges for current network simulation techniques. Simulating transmission networks is essential for studying network dynamics, including clusters. We validated PATH 4.0 by comparing simulated projections of HIV diagnoses with estimates from the National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) for 2010-2017. We also applied a cluster generation algorithm to PATH 4.0 to estimate cluster features, including the distribution of persons with diagnosed HIV infection by cluster status and size and the size distribution of clusters. Simulated features matched well with NHSS estimates, which used molecular methods to detect clusters among HIV nucleotide sequences of persons with HIV diagnosed during 2015-2017. Cluster detection and response is a component of the U.S. Ending the HIV Epidemic strategy. While surveillance is critical for detecting clusters, a model in conjunction with surveillance can allow us to refine cluster detection methods, understand factors associated with cluster growth, and assess interventions to inform effective response strategies. As surveillance data are only available for cases that are diagnosed and reported, a model is a critical tool to understand the true size of clusters and assess key questions, such as the relative contributions of clusters to onward transmissions. We believe PATH 4.0 is the first modeling tool available to assess cluster detection and response at the national-level and could help inform the national strategic plan.