Spatial Variability Effects on Precision and Power of Forage Yield Estimation

Spatial kernel models capturing field heterogeneity for accurate estimation of genetic potential

According to Fisher's principles, an experimental field is typically divided into multiple blocks for local control. Although homogeneity is supposed within a block, this assumption may not be practical for large blocks, such as those including hundreds of plots. In line evaluation trials, which are essential in plant breeding, field heterogeneity must be carefully treated, because it can cause bias in the estimation of genetic potential. To more accurately estimate genotypic values in a large field trial, we developed spatial kernel models incorporating genome-wide markers, which consider continuous heterogeneity within a block and over the field. In the simulation study, the spatial kernel models were robust under various conditions. Although heritability, spatial autocorrelation range, replication number, and missing plots directly affected the estimation accuracy of genotypic values, the spatial kernel models always showed superior performance over the classical block model. We also employed these spatial kernel models for quantitative trait locus mapping. Finally, using field experimental data of bioenergy sorghum lines, we validated the performance of the spatial kernel models. The results suggested that a spatial kernel model is effective for evaluating the genetic potential of lines in a heterogeneous field.

Phenotypic Diversity and Productivity of Medicago sativa Subspecies from Drought-Prone Environments in Mediterranean Type Climates

The phenotypic diversity and productivity of a diverse alfalfa (M. sativa subspp.) panel of cultivars, landraces and wild relatives with putative drought tolerance were evaluated in two Mediterranean environments (central Chile and Southern Australia). In Chile, 70 accessions were evaluated in rainfed conditions and in Australia 30 accessions under rainfed and irrigated conditions, during three growing seasons. Large phenotypic variation was observed among and within subspecies for NDVI, stem length, intercepted PAR and forage yield. Principal component analysis indicated that the first two principal components (PC) accounted for 84.2% of total variance; fall dormancy, taxa, and breeding status were closely related to the agronomical performance of alfalfa accessions. Forage yield varied largely among accessions across years and locations. A linear relationship was found between annual forage yield and annual water added to the experiments (R2 = 0.60, p < 0.001). The GxE analysis for forage yield allowed the detection of the highest yielding accessions for each of the two mega-environments identified. The accessions CTA002 and CTA003 showed greater forage yield in both Chile and Australia environments. It is concluded that new breeding lines derived from crosses between cultivated alfalfa (M. sativa subsp. sativa) and wild relatives belonging to the primary (M. sativa subsp. falcata) and tertiary (M. arborea) gene pool, achieve outstanding agronomical performance in drought-prone environments.

Phenomics-Assisted Selection for Herbage Accumulation in Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)

The application of remote sensing in plant breeding is becoming a routine method for fast and non-destructive high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with sensors. Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) is a perennial forage legume grown in more than 30 million hectares worldwide. Breeding alfalfa for herbage accumulation (HA) requires frequent and multiple phenotyping efforts, which is laborious and costly. The objective of this study was to assess the efficiency of UAV-based imagery and spatial analysis in the selection of alfalfa for HA. The alfalfa breeding population was composed of 145 full-sib and 34 half-sib families, and the experimental design was a row-column with augmented representation of controls. The experiment was established in November 2017, and HA was harvested four times between August 2018 and January 2019. A UAV equipped with a multispectral camera was used for HTP before each harvest. Four vegetation indices (VIs) were calculated from the UAV-based images: NDVI, NDRE, GNDVI, and GRVI. All VIs showed a high correlation with HA, and VIs predicted HA with moderate accuracy. HA and NDVI were used for further analyses to calculate the genetic parameters using linear mixed models. The spatial analysis had a significant effect in both dimensions (rows and columns) for HA and NDVI, resulting in improvements in the estimation of genetic parameters. Univariate models for NDVI and HA, and bivariate models, were fit to predict family performance for scenarios with various levels of HA data (simulated in silico by assigning missing values to full dataset). The bivariate models provided higher correlation among predicted values, higher coincidence for selection, and higher genetic gain even for scenarios with only 30% of HA data. Hence, HTP is a reliable and efficient method to aid alfalfa phenotyping to improve HA. Additionally, the use of spatial analysis can also improve the accuracy of selection in breeding trials.

Improving Genomic Prediction in Cassava Field Experiments Using Spatial Analysis

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is an important staple food in sub-Saharan Africa. Breeding experiments were conducted at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture in cassava to select elite parents. Taking into account the heterogeneity in the field while evaluating these trials can increase the accuracy in estimation of breeding values. We used an exploratory approach using the parametric spatial kernels Power, Spherical, and Gaussian to determine the best kernel for a given scenario. The spatial kernel was fit simultaneously with a genomic kernel in a genomic selection model. Predictability of these models was tested through a 10-fold cross-validation method repeated five times. The best model was chosen as the one with the lowest prediction root mean squared error compared to that of the base model having no spatial kernel. Results from our real and simulated data studies indicated that predictability can be increased by accounting for spatial variation irrespective of the heritability of the trait. In real data scenarios we observed that the accuracy can be increased by a median value of 3.4%. Through simulations, we showed that a 21% increase in accuracy can be achieved. We also found that Range (row) directional spatial kernels, mostly Gaussian, explained the spatial variance in 71% of the scenarios when spatial correlation was significant.