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Gerstner BE, Blair ME, Bills P, Cruz-Rodriguez CA, Zarnetske PL. The influence of scale-dependent geodiversity on species distribution models in a biodiversity hotspot. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2024; 382:20230057. [PMID: 38342213 PMCID: PMC10859231 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2023.0057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 02/13/2024]
Abstract
Improving models of species' distributions is essential for conservation, especially in light of global change. Species distribution models (SDMs) often rely on mean environmental conditions, yet species distributions are also a function of environmental heterogeneity and filtering acting at multiple spatial scales. Geodiversity, which we define as the variation of abiotic features and processes of Earth's entire geosphere (inclusive of climate), has potential to improve SDMs and conservation assessments, as they capture multiple abiotic dimensions of species niches, however they have not been sufficiently tested in SDMs. We tested a range of geodiversity variables computed at varying scales using climate and elevation data. We compared predictive performance of MaxEnt SDMs generated using CHELSA bioclimatic variables to those also including geodiversity variables for 31 mammalian species in Colombia. Results show the spatial grain of geodiversity variables affects SDM performance. Some variables consistently exhibited an increasing or decreasing trend in variable importance with spatial grain, showing slight scale-dependence and indicating that some geodiversity variables are more relevant at particular scales for some species. Incorporating geodiversity variables into SDMs, and doing so at the appropriate spatial scales, enhances the ability to model species-environment relationships, thereby contributing to the conservation and management of biodiversity. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beth E. Gerstner
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife,
- Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Program,
| | - Mary E. Blair
- Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA
| | - Patrick Bills
- Institute for Cyber-Enabled Research (ICER),
- Institute for Biodiversity, Ecology, Evolution, and Macrosystems (IBEEM), and
| | - Cristian A. Cruz-Rodriguez
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Av. Paseo de Bolívar No. 16-20, Bogotá, DC, Colombia
- Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal. Montréal (QC), Canada
| | - Phoebe L. Zarnetske
- Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Program,
- Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
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Lal R, Chauhan S, Kaur A, Jaryan V, Kohli RK, Singh R, Singh HP, Kaur S, Batish DR. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Range Expansion of the Invasive Straggler Daisy ( Calyptocarpus vialis) in the Northwestern Indian Himalayan Region. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 13:68. [PMID: 38202376 PMCID: PMC10780488 DOI: 10.3390/plants13010068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2023] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Human-induced climate change modifies plant species distribution, reorganizing ecologically suitable habitats for invasive species. In this study, we identified the environmental factors that are important for the spread of Calyptocarpus vialis, an emerging invasive weed in the northwestern Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), along with possible habitats of the weed under current climatic scenarios and potential range expansion under several representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt niche modeling. The prediction had a high AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.894 ± 0.010 and a remarkable correlation between the test and expected omission rates. BIO15 (precipitation seasonality; 38.8%) and BIO1 (annual mean temperature; 35.7%) had the greatest impact on the probable distribution of C. vialis, followed by elevation (11.7%) and landcover (6.3%). The findings show that, unlike the current situation, "high" and "very high" suitability areas would rise while less-suited habitats would disappear. All RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) indicate the expansion of C. vialis in "high" suitability areas, but RCP 4.5 predicts contraction, and RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 predict expansion in "very high" probability areas. The current distribution of C. vialis is 21.59% of the total area of the state, with "medium" to "high" invasion suitability, but under the RCP 8.5 scenario, it might grow by 10% by 2070. The study also reveals that C. vialis may expand its niche at both lower and higher elevations. This study clarifies how bioclimatic and topographic factors affect the dispersion of invasive species in the biodiverse IHR. Policymakers and land-use managers can utilize the data to monitor C. vialis hotspots and develop scientifically sound management methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roop Lal
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Saurav Chauhan
- Faculty of Basic Sciences, Shoolini University of Biotechnology and Management Sciences, Solan 173229, Himachal Pradesh, India
| | - Amarpreet Kaur
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Vikrant Jaryan
- Department of Life Sciences, Allied Health Sciences & Agriculture Sciences, Sant Baba Bhag Singh University, Village Khiala, Padhiana, Jalandhar 144030, Punjab, India
| | | | - Rishikesh Singh
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
- Amity School of Earth and Environment Sciences, Amity University Punjab, Mohali 140306, Punjab, India
| | - Harminder P. Singh
- Department of Environment Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Shalinder Kaur
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Daizy R. Batish
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
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Cheng X, Han Y, Lin J, Jiang F, Cai Q, Shi Y, Cui D, Wen X. Time to Step Up Conservation: Climate Change Will Further Reduce the Suitable Habitats for the Vulnerable Species Marbled Polecat ( Vormela peregusna). Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:2341. [PMID: 37508118 PMCID: PMC10376176 DOI: 10.3390/ani13142341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2023] [Revised: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 07/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Habitat loss and human threats are putting the marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna) on the brink of extinction. Numerous recent studies have found that climate change will further deteriorate the living environment of endangered species, leading to their eventual extinction. In this study, we used the results of infrared camera surveys in China and worldwide distribution data to construct an ensemble model consisting of 10 commonly used ecological niche models to specify potential suitable habitat areas for V. peregusna under current conditions with similar environments to the sighting record sites. Changes in the suitable habitat for V. peregusna under future climate change scenarios were simulated using mid-century (2050s) and the end of the century (2090s) climate scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluated the accuracy of the model to obtain the environmental probability values (cutoff) of the V. peregusna distribution, the current distribution of suitable habitats, and future changes in moderately and highly suitable habitat areas. The results showed that the general linear model (GLM) was the best single model for predicting suitable habitats for V. peregusna, and the kappa coefficient, area under the curve (AUC), and true skill statistic (TSS) of the ensemble model all exceeded 0.9, reflecting greater accuracy and stability than single models. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for V. peregusna reached 3935.92 × 104 km2, suggesting a wide distribution range. In the future, climate change is predicted to severely affect the distribution of V. peregusna and substantially reduce the area of suitable habitats for the species, with 11.91 to 33.55% of moderately and highly suitable habitat areas no longer suitable for the survival of V. peregusna. This shift poses an extremely serious challenge to the conservation of this species. We suggest that attention be given to this problem in Europe, especially the countries surrounding the Black Sea, Asia, China, and Mongolia, and that measures be taken, such as regular monitoring and designating protected areas for the conservation of vulnerable animals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaotian Cheng
- The Station of Forest Seedling Quarantine and Pest Management, Changji 831100, China
| | - Yamin Han
- The Station of Forest Seedling Quarantine and Pest Management, Changji 831100, China
| | - Jun Lin
- Locust and Rodent Control Headquarters of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China
| | - Fan Jiang
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
| | - Qi Cai
- Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
| | - Yong Shi
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
| | - Dongyang Cui
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
| | - Xuanye Wen
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
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Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change. DIVERSITY 2023. [DOI: 10.3390/d15030404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/12/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change is causing unprecedented impacts on biodiversity. In India, there is little information available regarding how climate change affects biodiversity at the taxon/group level, and large-scale ecological analyses have been lacking. In this study, we demonstrated the applicability of eBird and GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility), and produced national-scale forecasts to examine the possible impacts of climate change on terrestrial avifauna in India. Using data collected by citizen scientists, we developed fine-tuned Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and predicted 1091 terrestrial bird species that would be distributed in India by 2070 on two climatic surfaces (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), using Maximum Entropy-based species distribution algorithms. Of the 1091 species modelled, our findings indicate that 66–73% of bird species in India will shift to higher elevations or shift northward, and 58–59% of bird species (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) would lose a portion of their distribution ranges. Furthermore, distribution ranges of 41–40% of bird species would increase. Under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), bird species diversity will significantly increase in regions above 2500 m in elevation. Both RCP scenarios predict extensive changes in the species richness of the western Himalayas, Sikkim, northeast India, and the western Ghats regions by 2070. This study has resulted in novel, high-resolution maps of terrestrial bird species richness across India, and we predict predominantly northward shifts in species ranges, similar to predictions made for avifauna in other regions, such as Europe and the USA.
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Shi K, Yang L, Zhang L, Chapman C, Fan P. Transboundary conservation hotspots in China and potential impacts of the belt and road initiative. DIVERS DISTRIB 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kaichong Shi
- School of Life Science Sun Yat‐sen University Guangzhou China
| | - Li Yang
- School of Life Science Sun Yat‐sen University Guangzhou China
| | - Lu Zhang
- School of Life Science Sun Yat‐sen University Guangzhou China
| | - Colin Chapman
- Wilson Center Washington District of Columbia USA
- Department of Anthropology The George Washington University Washington District of Columbia USA
- Biology Department Vancouver Island University Nanaimo British Columbia Canada
- Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Animal Conservation Northwest University Xi'an China
| | - Pengfei Fan
- School of Life Science Sun Yat‐sen University Guangzhou China
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Lovrenčić L, Temunović M, Bonassin L, Grandjean F, Austin CM, Maguire I. Climate change threatens unique genetic diversity within the Balkan biodiversity hotspot – The case of the endangered stone crayfish. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
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