A cost-effectiveness analysis of different therapies in patients with chronic hepatitis B in Italy

Are Published Health Economic Models for Chronic Hepatitis B Appropriately Capturing the Benefits of HBsAg Loss? A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVES

Sustained hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss or 'functional cure' (FC) is considered an optimal treatment endpoint by international clinical guidelines for chronic hepatitis B (CHB), yet rarely is this achieved with current standard of care (SoC). This leads to an under-reporting of FC in clinical trials, observational studies and health economic (HE) models. This paper systematically identifies and assesses how FC is incorporated in published HE models of CHB.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed and Embase (conducted February 2019) to review how HBsAg loss is captured in HE models. The following items were extracted: rate of (and transition probabilities to) HBsAg loss, HBsAg loss health state costs, and HBsAg loss health state utilities.

RESULTS

Sixty-five economics evaluations were identified, and < 50% of these (27/65) incorporated HBsAg loss in their models. Only 15/27 stated HBsAg loss health state costs, 15/27 stated HBsAg loss health state utilities, and 11/27 mentioned treatment-specific transition probabilities to HBsAg loss. The majority of sources these inputs were derived from are not transparent.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefits of FC in current HE models are not well captured, as FC is often not reported or not directly related to modelled treatments. This has the potential for novel agents with higher efficacy compared with SoC to be overlooked and undervalued if their worth is not appropriately communicated. In order to ensure optimal access for patients to new and effective therapies, it is important that the benefits of FC are better assessed and captured within HE models.

Cost-Effectiveness of Tenofovir Alafenamide for Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B in Canada

BACKGROUND/AIM

Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) has been approved for treating chronic hepatitis B (CHB) due to a proposed better safety profile in comparison with current therapies. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of TAF and other available treatment options for hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive and HBeAg-negative CHB patients from a Canadian provincial Ministry of Health perspective.

METHODS

A state-transition model based on the published literature was developed to compare treatment strategies involving entecavir (ETV), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and TAF. It adopted a lifetime time horizon. Outcomes measured were predicted number of liver-related deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

For HBeAg-positive patients, TAF followed by ETV generated an additional 0.16 QALYs/person at an additional cost of Can$14,836.18 with an ICER of Can$94,142.71/QALY compared with TDF followed by ETV. Of the iterations, 28.7% showed that it is the optimal strategy with a Can$50,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. For HBeAg-negative patients, ETV followed by TAF would prevent an additional 13 liver-related deaths per 1000 CHB patients compared with TDF, followed by ETV. It generated an additional 0.13 QALYs/person at an additional cost of Can$59,776.53 with an ICER of Can$461,162.21/QALY compared with TDF, followed by ETV. TAF-containing strategies are unlikely to be a rational choice in either case. The results were sensitive to the HBeAg seroconversion rates and viral suppression rates of the treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that TAF is not cost effective at its current cost. A 33.4% reduction in price would be required to make it cost effective for HBeAg-positive patients with a Can$50,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.

Omalizumab for Severe Allergic Asthma Treatment in Italy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis from PROXIMA Study

Introduction

Inadequately controlled severe asthma patients require additional therapy accounting for significant clinical and economic burden. Our analysis aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of omalizumab in the management of severe allergic asthma in Italy based on observational data from the PROXIMA study.

Methods

Observational data on efficacy, healthcare resource utilization and changes in quality of life at 12 months after the initiation of omalizumab were examined to estimate the cost-effectiveness compared to pre-omalizumab period and results were expressed with Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER). The cost–utility analysis estimated the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Direct health costs were assessed from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service (NHS).

Results

Omalizumab reduced the incidence of exacerbations, number of hospitalizations, physician visits, and improved quality of life after 12 months of treatment. Omalizumab had a greater effectiveness than pre-omalizumab treatment involving 0.132 QALYs gained and led to a €3729 per patient reduction in direct healthcare costs, excluding the add-on treatment cost. Nevertheless, the addition of omalizumab cost led to €7478 increase in total direct costs with respect to pre-omalizumab period. Based on difference in total direct cost and difference in QALY between post and pre-omalizumab period, the ICER was €56,847. According to sensitivity analysis, omalizumab provided a cost-effective use of NHS resources, already at 20% discounted price.

Conclusion

This study offers a real-world evidence of omalizumab effectiveness in Italy. Despite the high acquisition cost of the innovative drug, omalizumab is a sustainable treatment option for patients with uncontrolled severe allergic asthma.

Economic Analysis and Budget Impact of Tenofovir and Entecavir in the First-Line Treatment of Hepatitis B Virus in Italy

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B is a common, progressive disease, particularly when viral replication is detected. Oral antivirals can suppress viral replication and prevent or delay the development of cirrhosis and liver-related complications. The treatments of chronic hepatitis B cannot totally cure the disease but can prevent its progression to hepatocellular carcinoma, decreasing the levels of both morbidity and mortality. To date, there are several therapies indicated by the international guidelines as first-line treatments for the management of hepatitis B; two of the most effective are those based on either tenofovir or entecavir.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tenofovir and entecavir in the treatment of naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B. The two treatments are compared with the "no treatment" and to one another.

METHODS

The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a Markov model; patients entered one of the following health states: chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis (compensated or decompensated), hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation or death. The analysis was carried out from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service by considering a life-time horizon with cycles lasting 1 year and with costs and QALYs (quality-adjusted life years) discounted at a rate of 3.5%. The results of the model were analysed in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

ICERs for tenofovir and entecavir emerging from the comparison versus "no treatment" were equal to €10,274.73 and €16,300.44 per QALY gained, respectively, on the life-time horizon. Tenofovir was dominant in the direct comparison with entecavir, indicating more QALYs and a lower consumption of resources. The Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that in 97% (tenofovir) and in 85% (entecavir) of the scenarios performed, the cost per QALY fell below the threshold of €30,000/QALY. The budget impact analysis showed savings for tenofovir amounting to 33% compared to entecavir in the first year on treatment and to 31% in following years.

CONCLUSIONS

Entecavir and tenofovir are recommended for the treatment of patients with chronic Hepatitis B in the Italian Health System. In particular, tenofovir appeared to be the more cost-effective drug for the management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections. These results could help decision makers and clinicians to address their decision when choosing a first-line treatment for the management of people affected by chronic HBV.

Economic evaluation of HBV vaccination: A systematic review of recent publications (2000-2013)

AIM

To conduct a systematic review of the economic evaluations (EE) of HBV vaccination, taking also into account the studies published in the new millennium.

METHODS

An extensive scientific literature review was conducted using two electronic medical journal databases: Scopus and PubMed engines for published studies on EE of HBV vaccination.

RESULTS

22 articles were reviewed, 9, 5 and 8 cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit and cost-utility analysis, respectively. Studies were mainly concerning EE of universal vaccination (UV), mostly with regards to low or low-medium income countries. For high income countries, EE were focused on the possible implementation of HBV vaccination in particular settings, such as diabetic, renal and other chronic conditions care, as well as infectious diseasesUV has usually a very good cost-effectiveness ratio (80%), ranging from cost-saving (China) or few Euro per LY/QALY gained (in Thailand, and Vietnam) to 630.00$/QALY in USA (Asian and Pacific Islands) Moreover, EE of HBV vaccination are favorable in the infectious diseases field as well as for chronic conditions. In relation to diabetes the studies gave controversial results.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review highlighted the importance of introducing HBV vaccination not only for infant UV program but also for other settings in which patients are people affected by communicable and non-communicable diseases.

Lamivudine treatment failure risks in chronic hepatitis B patients with low viral load

AIM

To analyze the risk factors of lamivudine treatment failure (LTF) for the long-term use in patients with low viral load (LVL).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this multicenter study, 548 antiviral naïve noncirrhotic adult patients with LVL (for HBeAg+ patients HBV DNA <10 9 copies/ml and for HBeAg–patients HBV DNA <10 7 copies/ml) were enrolled. As a control group, 46 lamivudine-initiated patients with high viral load (HVL) were included. Primary outcome was switching to or adding on another antiviral drug as a consequence of primary nonresponse, partial response, viral breakthrough or adverse events. Secondary outcomes included LTF rates at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years and LTF-related viral and host factors.

RESULTS

Among 594 patients, 294 had to change lamivudine at the follow-up. Primary nonresponse, partial response, viral breakthrough or adverse events frequencies were 6.8, 1.6, 64.5 and 0.1%, respectively. Five-year LTF rates were 61.3 and 84.2% in patients with LVL and HVL, respectively. Among patients with LVL, patients with <100,000 copies/ml and ≥ 100,000 copies/ ml had 54.8 and 67.3% LTF rates at the end of the 5th year, respectively. Logistic regression analysis of risk factors showed HBeAg+, hepatic activity index, HBV DNA, virological response at 6 months and duration of follow-up were independent predictors for LTF (p values were 0.001, 0.008, 0.003, 0.020 and 0.003, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Similar to patients with HVL, first-line lamivudine therapy is not efficient for long-term use in patients with LVL. LTF risk is so high even in the absence of worse predictive factors.

Virtual screening of natural inhibitors to the predicted HBx protein structure of Hepatitis B Virus using molecular docking for identification of potential lead molecules for liver cancer

The HBx protein in Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is a potential target for anti-liver cancer molecules. Therefore, it is of interest to screen known natural compounds against the HBx protein using molecular docking. However, the structure of HBx is not yet known. Therefore, the predicted structure of HBx using threading in LOMET was used for docking against plant derived natural compounds (curcumin, oleanolic acid, resveratrol, bilobetin, luteoline, ellagic acid, betulinic acid and rutin) by Molegro Virtual Docker. The screening identified rutin with binding energy of -161.65 Kcal/mol. Thus, twenty derivatives of rutin were further designed and screened against HBx. These in silico experiments identified compounds rutin01 (-163.16 Kcal/mol) and rutin08 (- 165.76 Kcal/mol) for further consideration and downstream validation.

Cost-effectiveness of viral hepatitis B & C treatment

With the availability of effective antiviral therapies for chronic viral hepatitis B and C, cost-effectiveness studies have been performed to assess the outcomes and costs of these therapies to support health policy. It is now accepted that treatment of active CHB is cost-effective versus no treatment, although there are a variety of options. And with the new developments around CHC treatment and diagnostic tools it is of interest to both the clinician and policy makers to know both the costs and effects of these choices. The purpose of this article is to provide the reader with an insight into the recent treatment developments and cost-effectiveness issues related to chronic hepatitis B and C treatment, and an overview of recent cost-effectiveness studies evolving around HBV and HCV therapy.

Economic evaluation of initial antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected patients: an update of Italian guidelines

Introduction

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has allowed many HIV-infected patients to enjoy longer survival and a better quality of life. We performed an economic analysis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HAART regimens in Italy for managing HIV-naïve infected patients with a viral load below 100,000 copies/mL.

Patients and methods

The population considered in the model consisted of adult subjects with an HIV viral load below 100,000 copies/mL who received antiretroviral HAART treatment for the first time, according to the Italian National Guidelines with recommendation grade A1. The incremental cost-effectiveness analysis of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was carried out by means of a Markov model. Both the outcomes (QALYs) and the costs were discounted by 3.5%. The time horizon adopted in the model was 10 years. The point of view of the analysis was that of the Italian national health service.

Results

The tenofovir (TDF)/emtricitabine (FTC)/rilpivirine (RPV) single-tablet regimen (STR) (€7,417.00) revealed the lowest mean treatment cost. TDF/FTC + raltegravir (RAL) showed a better quality of life (0.906 QALY/year), followed by TDF/FTC/RPV (STR; 0.900 QALY/year), TDF/FTC + RPV (multipill regimen) (0.889 QALY/year), and TDF/FTC + atazanavir (ATV/r) (0.886 QALY/year). TDF/FTC/RPV (STR) appeared to be the most cost-effective therapeutic choice (€13,655.00), followed by TDF/FTC + RPV (multipill regimen) (€15,803.00), and TDF/FTC + efavirenz (EFV) (€16,181.00). The sensitivity analysis on the main variables confirmed the validity of the base case scenario.

Conclusion

STR (TDF/FTC/RPV) is the most cost-effective treatment strategy compared with the other therapeutic regimens recommended by the Italian guidelines for the treatment of naïve patients with a viral load <100,000 copies/mL. The inclusion of adverse-event management of HIV-infected patients affects the cost-effectiveness ratio of all HAART regimens.

Antivirais incorporados no Brasil para hepatite B cronica: analise de custo-efetividade

OBJETIVO Avaliar o custo-efetividade de diferentes tratamentos medicamentosos para hepatite B crônica entre pacientes adultos. MÉTODOS Utilizando modelo de Markov, construiu-se coorte hipotética de 40 anos para pacientes HBeAg-positivo ou HBeAg-negativo. Foram comparados os usos de adefovir, entecavir, tenofovir e lamivudina (com terapia de resgate em caso de resistência viral) para tratamento de pacientes adultos com hepatite B crônica, virgens de tratamento, com elevados níveis de alanina aminotransferase, sem evidência de cirrose e sem coinfecção por HIV. Valores para custo e efeito foram obtidos da literatura. A medida do efeito foi expressa em anos de vida ganhos (AVG). Taxa de desconto de 5% foi aplicada. Análise de sensibilidade univariada foi conduzida para avaliar incertezas do modelo. RESULTADOS O tratamento inicial com entecavir ou tenofovir apresentou melhores resultados clínicos. As menores razões custo-efetividade foram de entecavir para pacientes HBeAg-positivo (R$ 4.010,84/AVG) e lamivudina para pacientes HBeAg-negativo (R$ 6.205,08/AVG). Para pacientes HBeAg-negativo, a razão custo-efetividade incremental de entecavir (R$ 14.101,05/AVG) está abaixo do limiar recomendado pela Organização Mundial da Saúde. Análise de sensibilidade mostrou que variação nos custos dos medicamentos pode tornar tenofovir alternativa custo-efetiva tanto para pacientes HBeAg-positivo quanto para HBeAg-negativo. CONCLUSÕES Entecavir é alternativa recomendada para iniciar o tratamento de pacientes com hepatite B crônica no Brasil. Contudo, se houver redução no custo de tenofovir, esta pode se tornar alternativa mais custo-efetiva.

Individualized treatment of HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B using pegylated interferon-α2a as first-line and week-12 HBV DNA/HBsAg stopping rule: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is the most frequent and difficult-to-treat viral hepatitis worldwide. HBV DNA and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) serum levels, which help the early identification of non-responders to pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN), prompt more flexible individualized therapeutic strategies exploiting the benefits of both PEG-IFN and nucleoside/nucleotide analogues (NAs). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of week-12 HBV DNA/HBsAg stopping rule for early interruption and switch to currently most effective NA treatments (entecavir [ETV] or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [TDF]).

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was developed in the following health-related states: CHB, compensated cirrhosis (CC) and decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant, post-liver transplant, death, virological response, relapse and HBsAg clearance. Simulated strategies included: ETV/TDF in CHB; ETV/TDF delayed until CC; first-line PEG-IFN followed by switch to ETV/TDF for either patients meeting the week-12 stopping rule or week-48 null-responders/relapsers; and first-line PEG-IFN followed by switch to ETV/TDF delayed until CC. ETV and TDF were considered alternatively for a total of eight strategies. A lifetime simulation horizon was applied.

RESULTS

Early treatment strategies using NAs with or without first-line PEG-IFN provided the highest results (approximately 22 life-years and 15 quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]). Delayed treatments until cirrhosis development resulted in poorer outcomes. The average per-patient lifetime costs ranged from €33,500 (TDF in CC) to €68,900 (TDF in CHB). Costs using ETV were 20-50% higher. First-line PEG-IFN strategies ranged from dominant (that is, more effective and less costly) to highly cost-effective, although differences in QALYs were always very narrow.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of antiviral therapy of HBeAg-negative CHB could be improved significantly using first-line PEG-IFN followed by a switch to NAs in either patients meeting the week-12 HBV DNA/HBsAg stopping rule or week-48 non-responders/relapsers.

Economic analysis of the first 20 years of universal hepatitis B vaccination program in Italy: an a posteriori evaluation and forecast of future benefits

Italy was one of the first countries in the world to introduce a routine vaccination program against HBV for newborns and 12-y-old children. From a clinical point of view, such strategy was clearly successful. The objective of our study was to verify whether, at 20 y from its implementation, hepatitis B universal vaccination had positive effects also from an economic point of view. An a posteriori analysis evaluated the impact that the hepatitis B immunization program had up to the present day. The implementation of vaccination brought an extensive reduction of the burden of hepatitis B-related diseases in the Italian population. As a consequence, the past and future savings due to clinical costs avoided are particularly high. We obtained a return on investment nearly equal to 1 from the National Health Service perspective, and a benefit-to-cost ratio slightly less than 1 for the Societal perspective, considering only the first 20 y from the start of the program. In the longer-time horizon, ROI and BCR values were positive (2.78 and 2.46, respectively). The break-even point was already achieved few years ago for the NHS and for the Society, and since then more and more money is progressively saved. The implementation of universal hepatitis B vaccination was very favorable during the first 20 y of adoption, and further benefits will be increasingly evident in the future. The hepatitis B vaccination program in Italy is a clear example of the great impact that universal immunization is able to provide in the medium-long-term when health care authorities are so wise as to invest in prevention.

Cost effectiveness of first-line oral antiviral therapies for chronic hepatitis B : a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B is a common, progressive disease, particularly when viral replication is detected. Oral antivirals can suppress viral replication and prevent or delay the development of cirrhosis and liver-related complications.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to systematically review the quality of cost-effectiveness evidence on first-line treatment with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir difumarate (TDF) for patients with chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

We searched electronic databases and retrieved articles published up to October 2011, in which the cost effectiveness of ETV or TDF was compared with that of other oral antivirals. The quality of the studies identified was assessed with a standard checklist for critical appraisal.

RESULTS

We selected 16 original papers, all published in the last 5 years. There was a conflict of interest in 12 of the 16 studies due to sponsorship by the corresponding pharmaceutical companies. According to the validity assessment, ten studies were classified as high quality. Five studies performed a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing ETV with TDF; they concluded that TDF dominates ETV. The other 11 studies compared ETV or TDF with other strategies; all concluded that ETV and TDF are both cost-effective interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review shows that there is valid evidence suggesting that ETV and TDF are cost-effective interventions for the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis B in many health systems. In countries where both alternatives are available, it appears that TDF dominates ETV. These results could help decision makers and clinicians to understand economic issues regarding the available drugs for first-line treatment of hepatitis B.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV treatment in the clinical practice of a public hospital in northern Italy

Introduction

We carried out an economic analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimens in Italy for the management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients according to clinical practice in the Infectious Diseases Department of “L. Sacco” Hospital, Milan, Italy.

Patients and methods

The incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was completed by means of a Markov model. Through a decision-analytic approach, this enabled us to compare the studied antiretroviral regimens. The model considered a population of adult HIV subjects who received HAART therapy for the first time according to clinical practice in the Infectious Diseases Department of “L. Sacco” Hospital, Milan. Data were investigated from the standpoint of the Lombardy Regional Health Service. We considered the following outcome measures: quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and direct health costs calculated for the years 2008 and 2009. The time horizon adopted in the model was 2 years.

Results

The model revealed that, in terms of cost per gained QALY, the tenofovir disoproxil fumarate + emtricitabine + efavirenz (TDF+FTC+EFV) once-a-day treatment strategy seems to be the most cost-effective therapeutic choice (€34,965); the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) values for the remaining strategies ranged from €53,000 to around €62,000 per QALY. The validity of the base case scenario was then confirmed by means of a sensitivity analysis on the main variables.

Conclusion

The TDF+FTC+EFV treatment strategy (TDF/FTC+EFV fixed-dose combination then switched to single-tablet regimen [STR]) in this setting is the most cost-effective treatment strategy compared with the other therapeutic regimens. The ICER value for the TDF+FTC+EFV once-a-day then switched to STR treatment was lower than the internationally generally accepted threshold value of €50,000. The developed model is a tool for policy makers and health care professionals for creating short- and long-term cost projections, with the aim of assessing their impact on the available budgets for HIV patients.

Acamprosate in the treatment of alcoholism: a budget impact analysis for the National Health Service in Italy

Objective

Alcohol dependence is a common condition associated with high direct and indirect health care costs. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the economic consequences of acamprosate used as adjuvant therapy in the treatment of alcoholism, defining a budget impact analysis (BIA) from the point of view of the Italian National Health Service (NHS).

Methods

We developed a model of disease evolution related to alcoholism using data from the PRAMA study. The hypothetical population included in the decision model was obtained from data from the Ministry of Health. We compared the following treatment strategies: no treatment, standard care (psychotherapy), sodium oxybate (sodium salt-4-hydroxybutyric acid), and acamprosate. The time horizon of the model was 10 years. The costs were evaluated from the NHS perspective.

Results

We simulated the path for 69,348 patients treated at the outpatient clinics of the Addiction Services (SerT), and 38,911 patients discharged from hospital. Patients in the acamprosate group had lower alcohol-related events, with a reduction of the total cost. The BIA shows that the increase in the use of acamprosate was associated with a progressive decrease of total costs, calculated as the sum of the diagnosis-related groups (DRG), rehabilitation, and drug costs. The increasing use of acamprosate instead of standard care and sodium oxybate would generate cost savings up to over €6 million over 10 years of simulation.

Conclusion

The estimates in the model are based on hypothetical situations; the assumptions of the model as well as their specific impact on treatment effect estimations and clinical implications should be validated in real life. Public health care authorities would benefit from mathematical models designed to estimate the future burden of alcohol dependence together with the impact of treatment and the potential to reduce the incidence and progression of this condition, and the costs of its complications.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of initial HIV treatment under Italian guidelines

INTRODUCTION

Since the mid-1990s, highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has modified the clinical course of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, reducing the rate of disease progression, the incidence of opportunistic infections, and mortality. The authors of this paper performed an economic analysis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the HAART regimens in Italy for managing HIV-infected patients according to national guidelines.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out by means of a Markov model, which through a decision-analytic approach, made it possible to compare the studied antiretroviral regimens. The population considered in the model consisted of adult subjects with HIV who received antiretroviral HAART treatment for the first time. The population considered in the analysis reflects the patients' characteristics according to one of the regional surveillance systems HIV/AIDS infection report currently operating in Italy. The analysis was carried out from the point of view of the Italian health care system. The considered outcome measures were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and direct health costs calculated for the year 2010. Both the outcomes (QALYs) and the costs were discounted by 3.5%. The time horizon adopted in the model was 10 years.

RESULTS

The model shows, in terms of cost per gained QALY, single tablet regimen (STR) appeared to be the most cost-effective therapeutic choice (€22,017), followed by tenofovir (TDF) + lamivudine + efavirenz (EFV) (€24,526), and TDF/emtricitabine (FTC) + nevirapine (€26,416), and TDF + FTC + EFV (€26,558); the remaining strategies have an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) value varying from €28,000 to €41,000 per QALY. The sensitivity analysis on the main variables confirmed the validity of the base case scenario.

CONCLUSION

STR is the most cost-effective treatment strategy, compared with the other therapeutic regimens recommended by the Italian guidelines. All the ICER values of the various regimens considered by the Italian guidelines were lower than the threshold value of €50,000 commonly accepted at the international level. The model developed represents a tool for policy makers and health care professionals to make short- and long-term cost projections and thus evaluate their impact on the available budgets for HIV patients.