From Disability to Death: A 20-Year Follow-Up from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging

Medical care use and mortality rate after the onset of disability: A 6-year follow-up study based on national data in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

The onset of disability is a major health challenge, and people with disability can be particularly underserved in the years immediately after the disability onset.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the excess mortality rate of people with recent-onset disability and their health-care utilization during the period after disability onset (1-6 years after onset).

METHODS

We used whole-population claims data from 2015 to 2020 (for approximately 23 million individuals) from Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) system. These NHI claims data were linked to the National Death Records and National Disability Registry. Each individual with a disability was followed until their death or December 31, 2020. The age-standardized mortality rate and outpatient and inpatient utilization were compared between individuals with and without disability. Finally, Cox regressions were estimated to determine excess mortality for the individuals with disability.

RESULTS

The age-standardized mortality rates for the people with disability and those without disability were 1020.35/10,000 and 463.83/10,000, respectively. The people with disability utilized significantly more medical care under the NHI system. Mortality rates differed substantially among disability types. The Cox regression revealed a hazard ratio of 1.47 (95% CI = 1.46, 1.48) for all-cause mortality for people with disability, and significant sex differences in mortality risk were observed for some causes of death.

CONCLUSION

According to the excess mortality rates within 6 years of disability onset observed in this study, the NHI may not be sufficient to reduce health disparity between people with and without disabilities. In addition, specific characteristics of each type of disability should be considered.

Disparities in overall survival by varying duration of disability in activities of daily living in older people: A population-based cohort from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS)

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between duration of disability in activity of daily living (ADL) and overall survival in older individuals.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community-based data from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey.

PARTICIPANTS

In total, 13,560 participants without ADL disability and 2772 participants with ADL disability at baseline were included.

MEASUREMENTS

ADL disability was assessed using Katz index scale, which included six essential ADLs: dressing, bathing, transferring, toileting, continence, and eating. Dependence of each item was scored on a scale of 1, the maximum total score was 6. At baseline, duration of ADL disability was defined as the maximum duration among the six items. The study outcome was overall survival. Accelerated failure time models were constructed to investigate the association between duration of ADL disability and overall survival. Subgroup analyses by sex, age, and multimorbidites, as well as sensitive analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

During 81,868.7 person-years follow-up, 11,092 deaths were recorded. Overall, ADL disability was associated with lower overall survival compared to non-ADL disability. With duration of ADL disability extending, the overall survival strikingly dropped in the first 12 months, reaching its lowest point with adjusted time ratio (TR) at 0.66 (95%CI: 0.61-0.72, p < 0.001), then moderately grew until the 60th month, finally stayed constant thereafter. Participants with ADL scores of 1-3 had higher survival compared to those with scores of 4-6, and both groups followed a similar trend of varied survival to the whole cohort. Moreover, subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings first address a golden time window for the older individuals with ADL disability. More attention should be given to them, especially in the first 12 months since diagnosis, to reduce mortality and extend the lifespan.

Prediction model of all-cause death based on balance ability among middle-aged and older Chinese adults of overweight and obesity

Background

Advances in studies using body indicators to predict death risk. Estimating the balance ability of death risk in middle-aged and older Chinese adults with overweight and obesity is still challenging.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the data from the China Health and Retirement Study from January 2011 to December 2018. A total of 8,632 participants were randomly divided into 7:3 a training group and a verification group, respectively. Univariable Cox analysis was used to prescreen 17 potential predictors for incorporation in the subsequent multivariable Cox analysis. Nine variables were included in the nomogram finally and validated with concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and internal validation population.

Results

287 participants were death in the training group. One hundred and thirteen participants were death in the verification group. A total of nine indicators were included in the modeling group, including gender, age, marriage, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, ADL, IADL, and balance ability to establish a prediction model. The nomogram predicted death with a validated concordance index of (C-index = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.80). The inclusion of balance ability variables in the nomogram maintained predictive accuracy (C-index = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.73-0.82). The calibration curve graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P > 0.05 for both the modeling group and the verification group) showed the model has a good model consistency.

Conclusion

In the present study, we provide a basis for developing a prediction model for middle-aged and older people with overweight and obesity. In most cases, balance ability is more reversible than other predictors.