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Yang H, Chen M, Hu Y, Xu M, Li Y, Liu L, Yuan D, Yuan F, Li L, Ye L, Zhou C, Zhang Y, Liang S, Su L. An Assessment of Trends in HIV-1 Prevalence and Incidence and Spatio-Temporal Analyses of HIV-1 Recent Infection Among MSM During the Surveillance Period Between 2018 and 2022 in Sichuan, China. HIV AIDS (Auckl) 2024; 16:83-93. [PMID: 38464995 PMCID: PMC10924877 DOI: 10.2147/hiv.s448096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/24/2024] [Indexed: 03/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) is one main type of high-risk activities facilitating HIV-1 transmission in Sichuan province. Previous works on HIV-1 incidence and prevalence among MSM only concentrated before 2018, the situation after that is unknown. In addition, the distribution of hot-spots related to current HIV-1 epidemic is also rarely known among MSM in Sichuan. Objective To update trends of HIV-1 prevalence and incidence and to visualize hot-spots of ongoing transmission in Sichuan province during surveillance period among MSM between 2018 and 2022. Methods Limiting Antigen Avidity assay was performed to detect recent infection within new HIV-1 diagnoses founded during surveillance period among MSM. The HIV-1 prevalence and incidence were calculated according to an extrapolation method proposed by publications and guidelines. Trend tests were performed using χ2 tests with linear-by-linear association. The spatial analysis was conducted with ArcGIS 10.7 to figure hot-spots of HIV-1 recent infections among MSM. Results Between 2018 and 2022, 16,697 individuals participated in HIV-1 MSM sentinel surveillance program, of which 449 samples (98.25%) were tested with LAg-Avidity EIA, and 230 samples were classified as recent infection. Respectively, the overall prevalence and incidence were 2.74% and 3.69% (95% CI: 3.21, 4.16) and both had significant declining trends (p < 0.001). Luzhou city had a highest HIV-1 incidence (10.74%, 95% CI: 8.39, 13.10) over the study period and was recognized as a hot-spot for recent HIV-1 infection among MSM. Conclusion During the surveillance period, both HIV-1 prevalence and incidence were declining. However, Luzhou city had an unusually high HIV-1 incidence and became an emerging hot-spot of recent HIV-1 infection among MSM. This finding suggested focused attention, cross-regional intervention strategies, and prevention programs are urgently required to curb the spread of ongoing transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong Yang
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Maogang Chen
- Department of Microbiology, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xichang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ying Hu
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Mengjiao Xu
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yiping Li
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Lunhao Liu
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Dan Yuan
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Fengshun Yuan
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ling Li
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Li Ye
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chang Zhou
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Zhang
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Shu Liang
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ling Su
- Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
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Huang G, Cheng W, Xu Y, Yang J, Jiang J, Pan X, Zhou X, Jiang J, Chai C. Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Determinants for Newly Reported HIV/AIDS Among Older Adults in Eastern China From 2004 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e51172. [PMID: 38349727 PMCID: PMC10900086 DOI: 10.2196/51172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/14/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In recent years, the number and proportion of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among older adults have increased dramatically. However, research on the pattern of temporal and spatial changes in newly reported HIV/AIDS among older adults remains limited. OBJECTIVE This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS cases and its influencing factors among older adults in Eastern China from 2004 to 2021, with the goal of improving HIV/AIDS prevention and intervention. METHODS We extracted data on newly reported HIV/AIDS cases between 2004 and 2021 from a case-reporting system and used a Joinpoint regression model and an age-period-cohort model to analyze the temporal trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression models were used for spatial aggregation and influence factor analysis. RESULTS A total of 12,376 participants with HIV/AIDS were included in the study. The newly reported HIV infections among older adults increased from 0.13 cases per 100,000 people in 2004 to 7.00 cases per 100,000 people in 2021. The average annual percent change in newly reported HIV infections was 28.0% (95% CI -21.6% to 34.8%). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that age, period, and cohort factors affected the newly reported HIV infections among older adults. The newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) had spatial clustering, and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in Hangzhou. The disposable income of urban residents, illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and number of hospital beds per 1000 residents showed a positive association with the newly reported HIV infections among older MSM in the Zhejiang province. CONCLUSIONS HIV/AIDS among older adults showed an increasing trend and was influenced by age, period, and cohort effects. Older MSM with HIV/AIDS showed regional clustering and was associated with factors such as the disposable income of urban residents, the illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and the number of hospital beds per 1000 people. Targeted prevention and control measures are needed to reduce HIV infection among those at higher risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gang Huang
- Health Science Center, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China
| | - Wei Cheng
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yun Xu
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jiezhe Yang
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jun Jiang
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xiaohong Pan
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xin Zhou
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jianmin Jiang
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
- Key Lab of Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China
| | - Chengliang Chai
- Department of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
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Chen N, Chen S, Li X, Li Z. Modelling and analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic with fast and slow asymptomatic infections in China from 2008 to 2021. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2023; 20:20770-20794. [PMID: 38124575 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to investigate the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China during 2008-2021. A new mathematical model is proposed to study the dynamics of HIV transmission with acute infection, fast asymptomatic infections, and slow asymptomatic infections. The basic reproduction number is obtained by the next-generation matrix method. A quantitative analysis of the model, including the local behavior, global behavior, and permanence, is performed. Numerical simulations are presented to enhance the results of these analyses. The behavior or the model's parameters are estimated from real data. A sensitivity analysis shows that the proportion of asymptomatic infections co-infected with other diseases significantly affects the basic reproduction number. We further analyze the impact of implementing single and multiple measure(s) in parallel with the epidemic. The study results conclude that multiple measures are more effective in controlling the spread of AIDS compared to just one. The HIV epidemic can be effectively curbed by reducing the contact rate between fast asymptomatic infected individuals and susceptible populations, increasing the early diagnosis and screening of HIV-infected individuals co-infected with other diseases, and treating co-infected patients promptly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nawei Chen
- College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Shenglong Chen
- College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Xiaoyu Li
- College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Zhiming Li
- College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
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Yuan D, Liu S, Ouyang F, Ai W, Shi L, Liu X, Qiu T, Zhou Y, Wang B. Prevention and Control Are Not a Regional Matter: A Spatial Correlation and Molecular Linkage Analysis Based on Newly Reported HIV/AIDS Patients in 2021 in Jiangsu, China. Viruses 2023; 15:2053. [PMID: 37896830 PMCID: PMC10612072 DOI: 10.3390/v15102053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2023] [Revised: 10/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/04/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
HIV-related spatial analysis studies in China are relatively few, and Jiangsu Province has not reported the relevant data in recent years. To describe the spatial distribution and molecular linkage characteristics of HIV-infected patients, this article combined descriptive epidemiology, spatial analysis, and molecular epidemiology methods to analyze patient reporting, patient mobility information, and HIV sequence information simultaneously. The results showed that HIV reporting profiles differed among Jiangsu cities, with the reporting rate in southern Jiangsu being above average. There was a spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran I = 0.5426, p < 0.05), with Chang Zhou showing a High-High aggregation pattern. Chang Zhou and Wu Xi were identified as hotspots for HIV reporting and access to molecular transmission networks. Some infected individuals still showed cross-city or even cross-province mobility after diagnosis, and three were linked with individuals in the destination cities within the largest molecular transmission cluster, involving 196 patients. The cross-city or cross-province mobility of patients may result in a potential HIV transmission risk, suggesting that combining timely social network surveys, building an extensive transmission network across cities and provinces, and taking critical regions and key populations as entry points could contribute to improved prevention and control efficiency and promote achievement of the 95-95-95 target and cascade.
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Affiliation(s)
- Defu Yuan
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China; (D.Y.); (S.L.); (F.O.)
| | - Shanshan Liu
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China; (D.Y.); (S.L.); (F.O.)
| | - Fei Ouyang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China; (D.Y.); (S.L.); (F.O.)
| | - Wei Ai
- School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China;
| | - Lingen Shi
- Department of HIV/STD Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China; (L.S.); (X.L.); (T.Q.)
| | - Xiaoyan Liu
- Department of HIV/STD Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China; (L.S.); (X.L.); (T.Q.)
| | - Tao Qiu
- Department of HIV/STD Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China; (L.S.); (X.L.); (T.Q.)
| | - Ying Zhou
- Department of HIV/STD Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China; (L.S.); (X.L.); (T.Q.)
| | - Bei Wang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China; (D.Y.); (S.L.); (F.O.)
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Yang H, Li Y, Xu M, Hu Y, Yuan F, Liu L, Li L, Yuan D, Ye L, Zhou C, Zhang Y, Su L, Liang S. The Update of HIV-1 Prevalence and Incidence and Spatio-Temporal Analyses of HIV Recent Infection Among Four Sub-Groups in Sichuan, China During Surveillance Period Between 2016 and 2022. Infect Drug Resist 2023; 16:6535-6548. [PMID: 37814665 PMCID: PMC10560476 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s428744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2023] [Accepted: 09/27/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Sichuan Province has gradually become a hot-spot for HIV/AIDS. Little is known about the HIV-1 incidence and prevalence among four sub-groups since 2015. Meanwhile, the distributions of hot-spot areas related to recent infection cases that indicate current transmission among the four subgroups are also rare. Objective The main purpose of this study was to assess the HIV-1 prevalence and incidence and to visualize the distributions of hot-spot areas of current transmission among four subgroups (people who inject drugs, male STD clinic attendees, female sex workers and men who had sex with men) during the surveillance period in Sichuan province between 2016 and 2022. Results Of the 267,617 individuals, 2158 HIV-positive samples were tested with Lag-Avidity EIA, among which 493 samples were identified as recent infections. Among people who inject drugs (PWID), both HIV-1 prevalence (from 1.41% to 0.34%) and incidence (from 0.03% to 0.140%) showed a significant decreasing trend. Among men who had sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSWs), and male STD clinic attendees, HIV-1 prevalence indicated significant decreasing trends, whereas HIV-1 incidence showed no significant changes. Spatial analysis demonstrated the formation of hot-spots and clusters of current transmissions sharing regional differences, mainly concentrated in the southeast, and most of these were consecutive hot-spots. Conclusion The prevention and control were efficacious and persistent. However, among the other three subgroups, there is a need for a regional cooperative in prevention and control approaches and collaborative research in many aspects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong Yang
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yiping Li
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Mengjiao Xu
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ying Hu
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Fengshun Yuan
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Lunhao Liu
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ling Li
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Dan Yuan
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Li Ye
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chang Zhou
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Zhang
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ling Su
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
| | - Shu Liang
- Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, People’s Republic of China
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Wu Z, Fu G, Wen Q, Wang Z, Shi LE, Qiu B, Wang J. Spatiotemporally Comparative Analysis of HIV, Pulmonary Tuberculosis, HIV-Pulmonary Tuberculosis Coinfection in Jiangsu Province, China. Infect Drug Resist 2023; 16:4039-4052. [PMID: 37383602 PMCID: PMC10296641 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s412870] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a severe chronic communicable disease that causes a heavy disease burden in China. Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and PTB coinfection dramatically increases the risk of death. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV, PTB and HIV-PTB coinfection in Jiangsu Province, China, and explores the impact of socioeconomic determinants. Patients and Methods The data on all notified HIV, PTB and HIV-PTB coinfection cases were extracted from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We applied the seasonal index to identify high-risk periods of the disease. Time trend, spatial autocorrelation and SaTScan were used to analyze temporal trends, hotspots and spatiotemporal clusters of diseases. The Bayesian space-time model was conducted to examine the socioeconomic determinants. Results The case notification rate (CNR) of PTB decreased from 2011 to 2019 in Jiangsu Province, but the CNR of HIV and HIV-PTB coinfection had an upward trend. The seasonal index of PTB was the highest in March, and its hotspots were mainly distributed in the central and northern parts, such as Xuzhou, Suqian, Lianyungang and Taizhou. HIV had the highest seasonal index in July and HIV-PTB coinfection had the highest seasonal index in June, with their hotspots mainly distributed in southern Jiangsu, involving Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou. The Bayesian space-time interaction model showed that socioeconomic factor and population density were negatively correlated with the CNR of PTB, and positively associated with the CNR of HIV and HIV-PTB coinfection. Conclusion The spatial heterogeneity and spatiotemporal clusters of PTB, HIV and HIV-PTB coinfection are exhibited obviously in Jiangsu. More comprehensive interventions should be applied to target TB in the northern part. While in southern Jiangsu, where the economic level is well-developed and the population density is high, we should strengthen the prevention and control of HIV and HIV-PTB coinfection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhuchao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, People’s Republic of China
| | - Gengfeng Fu
- Department of STI and HIV Control and Prevention, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, 210009, People’s Republic of China
| | - Qin Wen
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zheyue Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, People’s Republic of China
| | - Lin-en Shi
- Department of STI and HIV Control and Prevention, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, 210009, People’s Republic of China
| | - Beibei Qiu
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jianming Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Epidemiology, Gusu School, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, People’s Republic of China
- Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, People’s Republic of China
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