Comparison of Two Predictive Models of Sepsis in Critically Ill Patients Based on the Combined Use of Inflammatory Markers

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A NOMOGRAM FOR PREDICTING 28-DAY IN-HOSPITAL MORTALITY IN SEPSIS PATIENTS BASED ON AN OPTIMIZED ACUTE PHYSIOLOGY AND CHRONIC HEALTH EVALUATION II SCORE

ABSTRACT

Purpose : The objective of this study is to establish a nomogram that correlates optimized Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score with sepsis-related indicators, aiming to provide a robust model for early prediction of sepsis prognosis in clinical practice and serve as a valuable reference for improved diagnosis and treatment strategies. Methods : This retrospective study extracted sepsis patients meeting the inclusion criteria from the MIMIC-IV database to form the training group. An optimized APACHE II score integrated with relevant indicators was developed using a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of sepsis patients. External validation was conducted using data from the intensive care unit at Lanzhou University Second Hospital. Results : The study enrolled 1805 patients in the training cohort and 203 patients in the validation cohort. A multifactor analysis was conducted to identify factors affecting patient mortality within 28 days, resulting in the development of an optimized score by simplifying evaluation indicators from APACHE II score. The results showed that the optimized score (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.715) had a higher area under receiver operating characteristic curve than Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (AUC = 0.637) but slightly lower than APACHE II score (AUC = 0.720). Significant indicators identified through multifactor analysis included platelet count, total bilirubin level, albumin level, prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, mechanical ventilation use and renal replacement therapy use. These seven indicators were combined with optimized score to construct a nomogram based on these seven indicators. The nomogram demonstrated good clinical predictive value in both training cohort (AUC = 0.803) and validation cohort (AUC = 0.750). Calibration curves and decision curve analyses also confirmed its good predictive ability, surpassing the APACHE II score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score in identifying high-risk patients. Conclusions : The nomogram was established in this study using the MIMIC-IV database and validated with external data, demonstrating its robust discriminability, calibration, and clinical practicability for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients. These findings aim to provide substantial support for clinicians' decision making.

An Analysis of Predictive Factors for Severe Neonatal Infection and the Construction of a Prediction Model

Objective

To investigate the primary predictive factors for the occurrence of severe neonatal infection, construct a prediction model and assess its effectiveness.

Methods

A total of 160 neonates hospitalised in the Department of Neonatology at Suixi County Hospital from January 2019 to June 2022 were retrospectively analysed. Clinical data was analyzed to determine the primary predictive factors for the occurrence of severe neonatal infection. Predictive efficacy was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve, and a nomogram model was constructed according to the predictors. A bootstrap technique was used to verify the accuracy of the model.

Results

The neonates were divided, based on the degree of infection, into a mild infection group (n = 80) and a severe infection group (n = 80) according to a 1:1 ratio. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that compared with the recovery stage, white blood cell count (WBC) and platelet count (PLT) in the two groups were significantly decreased in the early stage of infection, and the ratio of mean platelet volume to PLT, as well as C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin levels, was elevated (P < 0.05). The area under the curves (AUCs) of decreased WBC, decreased PLT and elevated CRP levels, and the combination of these three indicators, were 0.881, 0.798, 0.523 and 0.914, respectively. According to the filtered indicators, two models (a dichotomous variable equation model and a nomogram model) of continuous numerical variables were constructed, and their AUCs were 0.958 and 0.914, respectively. The calibration curve of the nomogram model was validated with a consistency index of 0.908 (95% confidence interval [0.862, 0.954]).

Conclusion

Decreased WBC and PLT levels and an elevated CRP level were the primary independent predictors of severe neonatal infection.

The Potential Role of Neutrophil-Reactive Intensity (NEUT-RI) in the Diagnosis of Sepsis in Critically Ill Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The diagnosis of sepsis is often difficult and belated, substantially increasing mortality in affected patients. Its early identification allows for us to choose the most appropriate therapies in the shortest time, improving patients' outcomes and eventually their survival. Since neutrophil activation is an indicator of an early innate immune response, the aim of the study was to evaluate the role of Neutrophil-Reactive Intensity (NEUT-RI), which is an indicator of their metabolic activity, in the diagnosis of sepsis. Data from 96 patients consecutively admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) were retrospectively analyzed (46 patients with and 50 without sepsis). Patients with sepsis were further divided between sepsis and septic shock according to the severity of the illness. Patients were subsequently classified according to renal function. For the diagnosis of sepsis, NEUT-RI showed an AUC of >0.80 and a better negative predictive value than Procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) (87.4% vs. 83.9% and 86.6%, p = 0.038). Unlike PCT and CRP, NEUT-RI did not show a significant difference within the "septic" group between patients with normal renal function and those with renal failure (p = 0.739). Similar results were observed among the "non-septic" group (p = 0.182). The increase in NEUT-RI values could be useful in the early ruling-out of sepsis, and it does not appear to be influenced by renal failure. However, NEUT-RI has not proved to be efficient in discriminating the severity of sepsis at the time of admission. Larger, prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.

Discriminatory capacity of serum interleukin-6 between complicated and uncomplicated acute appendicitis in children: a prospective validation study

BACKGROUND

Serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) has a moderate diagnostic performance in pediatric acute appendicitis (PAA). The evidence regarding its capacity to discern between complicated and uncomplicated PAA is scarce.

METHODS

We designed a prospective observational study to validate serum IL-6 as a marker for diagnostic classification between complicated and uncomplicated PAA. This study included 205 patients divided into three groups: (1) patients who underwent major outpatient surgery (n = 57); (2) patients with non-surgical abdominal pain (NSAP) in whom the diagnosis of PAA was excluded (n = 53), and (3) patients with a confirmed diagnosis of PAA (n = 95). The PAA patients were further classified as uncomplicated or complicated PAA. IL-6 concentration was determined in all patients at diagnosis. Comparative statistical analysis was performed using the Mann-Whitney U test, the Fisher exact test and the Kruskall Wallis test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated.

RESULTS

Median (interquartile range, IQR) serum IL-6 values were 2 pg/mL (2.0-3.4) in group 1, 3.9 pg/mL (2.4-11.9) in group 2, and 23.9 pg/mL (11.1-61.0) in group 3 (P < 0.001). Among the participants in group 3, those with uncomplicated PAA had median (IQR) serum IL-6 values of 17.2 pg/mL (8.5-36.8), and those with complicated PAA had 60.25 pg/mL (27.1-169) serum IL-6 (P < 0.001). At the cut-off point of 19.55 pg/mL, the AUC for the discrimination between patients in group 2 vs. 3 was 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.90], with a sensitivity of 61.3% and a specificity of 86.8. The AUC for the discrimination between patients with uncomplicated and complicated PAA was 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.86) and the cut-off point was 25.90 pg/mL, with a sensitivity and specificity of 84.6% and 65.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum IL-6 has a good performance in discerning between complicated and uncomplicated PAA. A score including clinical and radiological variables may increase the diagnostic performance of this molecule.