Assessing the Prediction Effect of Various Prognosis Model for 28-Day Mortality in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients

Clinical significance of platelet-to-white blood cell ratio in patients with Wilson disease: a retrospective cohort study

Objective

To assess the correlation between the platelet-to-white blood cell ratio (PWR) and the severity of liver dysfunction, hepatic complications, and prognosis in Wilson disease (WD) patients.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on medical records from January 1, 2016, to March 30, 2022. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to examine the impact of a low PWR (<26.3) on WD severity, liver complications, and disease progression. Additionally, the effect of splenectomy on PWR was evaluated.

Results

The study included 315 patients with WD, among whom 105 had a low PWR and 210 had a high PWR. Those with low PWR exhibited significantly elevated levels of bilirubin, international normalized ratio, prothrombin time, procollagen type-III N-terminal propeptide, type IV collagen, hyaluronic acid, and portal vein diameter. Conversely, they had lower levels of albumin, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides (all P < 0.05). A low PWR correlated with a greater incidence of splenomegaly/hypersplenism, esophagogastric varices, and ascites (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, low PWR independently predicted hepatic decompensation (P < 0.05), and splenectomy led to a marked increase in PWR among WD patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

A low PWR in WD patients is linked to heightened disease severity, increased risk of liver complications, and rapid progression to decompensation. The results imply that splenectomy, by enhancing PWR, may serve as a viable strategy to slow WD progression.

A short-term predictive model for disease progression in acute-on-chronic liver failure: integrating spectral CT extracellular liver volume and clinical characteristics

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a life-threatening hepatic syndrome. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a comprehensive model combining extracellular liver volume derived from spectral CT (ECVIC-liver) and sarcopenia, for the early prediction of short-term (90-day) disease progression in ACLF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 126 ACLF patients who underwent hepatic spectral CT scans was included. According to the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) criteria, patients were divided into the progression group (n = 70) and the stable group (n = 56). ECVIC-liver was measured on the equilibrium period (EP) images of spectral CT, and L3-SMI was measured on unenhanced CT images, with sarcopenia assessed. A comprehensive model was developed by combining independent predictors. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, BMI, WBC, PLT, PTA, L3-SMI, IC-EP, Z-EP, K140-EP, NIC-EP, ECVIC-liver, and Sarcopenia demonstrated associations with disease progression status at 90 days in ACLF patients. In multivariate logistic regression, white blood cell count (WBC) (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.02-1.40; P = 0.026), ECVIC-liver (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.15-1.40; P < 0.001), sarcopenia (OR = 4.15, 95% CI: 1.43-12.01; P = 0.009), MELD-Na score (OR = 1.06, 95%CI: 1.01-1.13;P = 0.042), and CLIF-SOFA score (OR = 1.37, 95%CI:1.15-1.64; P<0.001) emerged as independent risk factors for ACLF progression. The combined model exhibited superior predictive performance (AUCs = 0.910, sensitivity = 80.4%, specificity = 90.0%, PPV = 0.865, NPV = 0.851) compared to CLIF-SOFA, MELD-Na, MELD and CTP scores(both P < 0.001). Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the high clinical utility of the combined model.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients without sarcopenia and/or with a lower ECVIC-liver have a better prognosis, and the integration of WBC, ECVIC-liver, Sarcopenia, CLIF-SOFA and MELD-Na scores in a composite model offers a concise and effective tool for predicting disease progression in ACLF patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not Applicable.

A nomogram model based on albumin-bilirubin score for predicting 90-day prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Objective

To develop a nomogram model based on the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score for predicting the 90-day prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and to evaluate its predictive efficacy.

Methods

Clinical data of 290 ACLF patients at the Third People's Hospital of Nantong City, collected from December 2020 to December 2023, were analyzed. The data were divided into a training set (n = 200) and a validation set (n = 90), with August 2022 as the cut-off date. Patients in the training set were categorized into an improvement group (n = 133) and a mortality group (n = 67) based on their 90-day outcomes. The predictive power of baseline parameters was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression to construct model. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results

Creatinine (CR) [odds ratio (OR) = 1.013, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.004-1.022], ALBI (OR = 10.831, 95% CI: 4.009-33.247), Gender (OR = 1.931, 95% CI: 0.973-3.870) and ascites (OR = 3.032, 95% CI: 1.249-8.178) were identified as independent prognostic factors. The prognostic model formula was derived as prognostic index (PI) = -0.591 + 0.658 × Gender + 1.109 × ascites + 0.012 × CR + 2.382 × ALBI. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.804 (95% CI: 0.741-0.866), with a specificity of 85.0% and a sensitivity of 65.7% at a cut-off of 0.425. The AUC of the validation set was 0.811 (95% CI: 0.697-0.926). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good model fit with a p-value of 0.287 for the training set and 0.423 for the validation set. Calibration curves demonstrated the accuracy of the model, and DCA results suggested that the model was clinically useful when the threshold was below 0.6.

Conclusion

The nomogram model incorporating ALBI with CR, Gender and ascites can predict the 90-day prognosis of ACLF patients, potentially helping to optimize treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.

Survival of Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease Cirrhosis-Usefulness of the New Liver Mortality Inpatients Prognostic Score

Background/Objectives: Alcohol can directly damage the liver, causing steatosis, steatohepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular cancer. The aim of this study was to examine 28-day survival in hospitalized patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) cirrhosis, as well as to develop and validate a new survival prediction model. Methods: A total of 145 patients with ALD cirrhosis were included; 107 were diagnosed with acute decompensation (AD) and 38 with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The new liver mortality inpatients (LIV-IN) score was calculated using the following variables: hepatic encephalopathy (HE), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), ascites, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), community-acquired infection (CAI), and fibrinogen. The diagnostic accuracy of the LIV-IN score was tested, along with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), chronic liver failure consortium-C acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD), and chronic liver failure consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF). Results: Lethal outcome occurred in 46 (31.7%) patients. The mortality rate was higher in the ACLF group (n = 22, 57.9%) compared to the AD group (n = 24, 22.4%) (p < 0.01). The highest predictive power for short-term mortality was observed for the LIV-IN score (AUC 73.4%, p < 0.01). In patients with AD, the diagnostic accuracy of the CLIF-C AD score was better than for the LIV-IN score (AUC 0.699; p = 0.004, AUC 0.686; p = 0.007, respectively). In patients with ACLF, only the LIV-IN score had statistically significant discriminative power in predicting 28-day survival. Conclusions: The liver mortality inpatients prognostic score is a new, reliable prognostic model in predicting 28-day mortality.

Efficacy of fresh frozen plasma transfusion in decompensated cirrhosis patients with coagulopathy admitted to ICU: a retrospective cohort study from MIMIC-IV database

We aimed to explore the association between FFP transfusion and outcomes of DC patients with significant coagulopathy. A total of 693 DC patients with significant coagulopathy were analyzed with 233 patients per group after propensity score matching (PSM). Patients who received FFP transfusion were matched with those receiving conventional therapy via PSM. Regression analysis showed FFP transfusion had no benefit in 30-day (HR: 1.08, 95% CI 0.83-1.4), 90-day (HR: 1.03, 95% CI 0.80-1.31) and in-hospital(HR: 1.30, 95% CI 0.90-1.89) mortality, associated with increased risk of liver failure (OR: 3.00, 95% CI 1.78-5.07), kidney failure (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.13-3.18), coagulation failure (OR: 2.55, 95% CI 1.52-4.27), respiratory failure (OR: 1.76, 95% CI 1.15-2.69), and circulatory failure (OR: 2.15, 95% CI 1.27-3.64), and even associated with prolonged the LOS ICU (β: 2.61, 95% CI 1.59-3.62) and LOS hospital (β: 6.59, 95% CI 2.62-10.57). In sensitivity analysis, multivariate analysis (HR: 1.09, 95%CI 0.86, 1.38), IPTW (HR: 1.11, 95%CI 0.95-1.29) and CAPS (HR: 1.09, 95% CI 0.86-1.38) showed FFP transfusion had no beneficial effect on the 30-day mortality. Smooth curve fitting demonstrated the risk of liver failure, kidney failure and circulatory failure increased by 3%, 2% and 2% respectively, for each 1 ml/kg increase in FFP transfusion. We found there was no significant difference of CLIF-SOFA and MELD score between the two group on day 0, 3, 7, 14. Compared with the conventional group, INR, APTT, and TBIL in the FFP transfusion group significantly increased, while PaO2/FiO2 significantly decreased within 14 days. In conclusion, FFP transfusion had no beneficial effect on the 30-day, 90-day, in-hospital mortality, was associated with prolonged the LOS ICU and LOS hospital, and the increased risk of liver failure, kidney failure, coagulation failure, respiratory failure and circulatory failure events. However, large, multi-center, randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies and external validation are still needed to verify the efficacy of FFP transfusion in the future.

Progress on clinical prognosis assessment in liver failure

Liver failure is a group of clinical syndromes with a mortality rate of >50%. The accurate evaluation of severity in patients with liver failure has been a meaningful and hot topic in clinical research and an important guide for liver transplantation. Numerous prognosis studies have emerged in recent years with high accuracy and adequate validity. Nonetheless, different models utilize distinct parameters and have unequal efficiencies, leading to a specific value and unique application situations for each model. This review focused on the progress in recent prognostic studies including the model for end-stage liver disease, sequential organ failure assessment and its derivative models, the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure, the Tongji prognostic predictor model, and other emerging prognostic models and predictors. This review aims to assist clinicians understand the framework of recent models and choose the appropriate model and treatment.

CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C scores for the prognostication of acute-on-chronic liver failure and acute decompensation of cirrhosis: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by decompensation in individuals with chronic liver disease, generally secondary to one or more extra-hepatic organ failures, implying an elevated mortality rate. Acute decompensation (AD) is the term used for one or more significant consequences of liver disease in a short time and is the most common reason for hospital admission in cirrhotic patients. The European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic-Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Group modified the intensive care Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score into CLIF-SOFA, which detects the presence of ACLF in patients with or without AD, classifying it into three grades.

AIM

To investigate the role of the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF and the ability of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores for prognosticating ACLF or AD.

METHODS

This study is a literature review using a standardized search method, conducted using the steps following the guidelines for reporting systematic reviews set out by the PRISMA statement. For specific keywords, relevant articles were found by searching PubMed, ScienceDirect, and BioMed Central-BMC. The databases were searched using the search terms by one reviewer, and a list of potentially eligible studies was generated based on the titles and abstracts screened. The data were then extracted and assessed on the basis of the Reference Citation Analysis (https://www.referencecitationanalysis.com/).

RESULTS

Most of the included studies used the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF to identify cirrhotic patients with a significant risk of short-term mortality. The primary outcome in all reviewed studies was mortality. Most of the study findings were based on an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, which revealed that CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores were preferable to other models predicting 28-d mortality. Their AUROC scores were higher and able to predict all-cause mortality at 90, 180, and 365 d. A total of 50 articles were included in this study, which found that the CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores in more than half of the articles were able to predict short-term and long-term mortality in patients with either ACLF or AD.

CONCLUSION

CLIF-SOFA score surpasses other models in predicting mortality in ACLF patients, especially in the short-term. CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD are accurate short-term and long-term mortality prognosticating scores.

Liver support systems for adults with acute‐on‐chronic liver failure

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (intervention). The objectives are as follows:

To assess the benefits and harms of liver support systems for adults with acute‐on‐chronic liver failure.

Validation of prognostic scores predicting mortality in acute liver decompensation or acute-on-chronic liver failure: A Thailand multicenter study

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

Cirrhosis patients with worsening of the liver function are defined as acute decompensation (AD) and those who develop extrahepatic organ failure are defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Both AD and ACLF have an extremely poor prognosis. However, information regarding prognostic predictors is still lacking in Asian populations. We aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day and 90-day mortality in cirrhosis patients who develop AD with or without ACLF.

METHODS

We included 9 tertiary hospitals from Thailand in a retrospective observational study enrolling hospitalized cirrhosis patients with AD. ACLF was diagnosed according to the EASL-CLIF criteria, which defined as AD patients who have kidney failure or a combination of at least two non-kidney organ failure. Outcomes were clinical parameters and prognostic scores associated with mortality evaluated at 30 days and 90 days.

RESULTS

Between 2015 and 2020, 602 patients (301 for each group) were included. The 30-day and 90-day mortality rates of ACLF vs. AD were 57.48% vs. 25.50% (p<0.001) and 67.44% vs. 32.78% (p<0.001), respectively. For ACLF patients, logistic regression analysis adjusted for demographic data, and clinical information showed that increasing creatinine was a predictor for 30-day mortality (p = 0.038), while the CLIF-C OF score predicted both 30-day (p = 0.018) and 90-day (p = 0.037) mortalities, achieving the best discriminatory power with AUROCs of 0.705 and 0.709, respectively. For AD patients, none of the parameters was found to be significantly associated with 30-day mortality, while bacterial infection, CLIF-AD score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score were independent parameters associated with 90-day mortality, with p values of 0.041, 0.024 and 0.024. However, their predictive performance became nonsignificant after adjustment by multivariate regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Regarding Thai patients, the CLIF-C OF score was the best predictor for 30-day and 90-day mortalities in ACLF patients, while appropriate prognostic factors for AD patients remained inconclusive.