A policy model to evaluate the benefits, risks and costs of warfarin pharmacogenomic testing

Cost Effectiveness of Pharmacogenetic Testing for Drugs with Clinical Pharmacogenetics Implementation Consortium (CPIC) Guidelines: A Systematic Review

The objective of this study was to evaluate the evidence on cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetic (PGx)-guided treatment for drugs with Clinical Pharmacogenetics Implementation Consortium (CPIC) guidelines. A systematic review was conducted using multiple biomedical literature databases from inception to June 2021. Full articles comparing PGx-guided with nonguided treatment were included for data extraction. Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) was used to assess robustness of each study (0-100). Data are reported using descriptive statistics. Of 108 studies evaluating 39 drugs, 77 (71%) showed PGx testing was cost-effective (CE) (N = 48) or cost-saving (CS) (N = 29); 21 (20%) were not CE; 10 (9%) were uncertain. Clopidogrel had the most articles (N = 23), of which 22 demonstrated CE or CS, followed by warfarin (N = 16), of which 7 demonstrated CE or CS. Of 26 studies evaluating human leukocyte antigen (HLA) testing for abacavir (N = 8), allopurinol (N = 10), or carbamazepine/phenytoin (N = 8), 15 demonstrated CE or CS. Nine of 11 antidepressant articles demonstrated CE or CS. The median QHES score reflected high-quality studies (91; range 48-100). Most studies evaluating cost-effectiveness favored PGx testing. Limited data exist on cost-effectiveness of preemptive and multigene testing across disease states.

Cost-Effectiveness of Antihypertensive Deprescribing in Primary Care: a Markov Modelling Study Using Data From the OPTiMISE Trial

BACKGROUND

Deprescribing of antihypertensive medications for older patients with normal blood pressure is recommended by some clinical guidelines, where the potential harms of treatment may outweigh the benefits. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of this approach.

METHODS

A Markov patient-level simulation was undertaken to model the effect of withdrawing one antihypertensive compared with usual care, over a life-time horizon. Model population characteristics were estimated using data from the OPTiMISE antihypertensive deprescribing trial, and the effects of blood pressure changes on outcomes were derived from the literature. Health-related quality of life was modeled in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and presented as costs per QALY gained.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, medication reduction resulted in lower costs than usual care (mean difference £185), but also lower QALYs (mean difference 0.062) per patient over a life-time horizon. Usual care was cost-effective at £2975 per QALY gained (more costly, but more effective). Medication reduction resulted more heart failure and stroke/TIA events but fewer adverse events. Medication reduction may be the preferred strategy at a willingness-to-pay of £20 000/QALY, where the baseline absolute risk of serious drug-related adverse events was ≥7.7% a year (compared with 1.7% in the base-case).

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was uncertainty around many of the assumptions underpinning this model, these findings suggest that antihypertensive medication reduction should not be attempted in many older patients with controlled systolic blood pressure. For populations at high risk of adverse effects, deprescribing may be beneficial, but a targeted approach would be required in routine practice.

Genetic-Guided Pharmacotherapy for Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic and Critical Review of Economic Evaluations

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the extent and quality of evidence from economic evaluations (EEs) of genetic-guided pharmacotherapy (PGx) for atrial fibrillation (AF) and to identify variables influential in changing base-case conclusions.

METHODS

From systematic searches, we included EEs of existing PGx testing to guide pharmacotherapy for AF, without restrictions on population characteristics or language. Articles excluded were genetic tests used to guide device-based therapy or focused on animals.

RESULTS

We found 18 EEs (46 comparisons), all model-based cost-utility analysis with or without cost-effectiveness analysis mostly from health system's perspectives, of PGx testing to determine coumadin/direct-acting anticoagulant (DOAC) dosing (14 of 18), to stratify patients into coumadin/DOACs (3 of 18), or to increase patients' adherence to coumadin (1 of 18) versus non-PGx. Most PGx to determine coumadin dosing found PGx more costly and more effective than standard or clinical coumadin dosing (19 of 24 comparisons) but less costly and less effective than standard DOAC dosing (14 of 14 comparisons). The remaining comparisons were too few to observe any trend. Of 61 variables influential in changing base-case conclusions, effectiveness of PGx testing was the most common (37%), accounted for in the models using time-based or medication-based approaches or relative risk. The cost of PGx testing has decreased and plateaued over time.

CONCLUSIONS

EEs to date only partially inform decisions on selecting optimal PGx testing for AF, because most evidence focuses on PGx testing to determine coumadin dosing, but less on other purposes. Future EE may refer to the list of influential variables and the approaches used to account for the effect of PGx testing to inform data collection and study design.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Genotype-Guided Interruption Days in Warfarin Pre-Procedural Management

BACKGROUND

Warfarin is commonly used in thromboembolic conditions. Warfarin interruption represents a significant challenge in pre-operative warfarin management as it is associated with major consequences. Genetics polymorphism demonstrated to be a significant predictor of the required days of warfarin interruption. This study sought to assess the economic benefit of implementing a pharmacogenetic-guided approach in the preprocedural warfarin management.

METHODS

From the hospital's perspective, a cost-benefit analysis was conducted based on a one-year decision-analytic follow-up model of the economic implications of using a pharmacogenetic algorithm versus standard of care in pre-operative warfarin management in the Hamad Medical Corporation, Qatar. The benefit of the interventional algorithm was based on estimated reduction in the probabilities of clinical events and their cost, added to the avoided cost because of canceled procedures. The cost of the algorithm was the cost of the genotyping assay. The model event probability inputs were extracted from major literature clinical trials, and the setting-specifc and cost inputs were locally obtained. The model was based on a multivariate analysis at its base case.

RESULTS

As per 10.3% prevalence of genetic variants, 82% bridging, and a calculated 20% optimization in the preparative period of warfarin management, the benefit to cost ratio was 4.0 in favor genotype-guided approach. This positive benefit to cost ratio was maintained in 100% of the simulated study cases. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness and generalizability of the study conclusion.

CONCLUSION

A pharmacogenetic- guided pre-operative warfarin interruption management is a cost-beneficial approach in the Qatari practice.

Pharmacogenetic testing for adverse drug reaction prevention: systematic review of economic evaluations and the appraisal of quality matters for clinical practice and implementation

Background

Genetic testing has potential roles in identifying whether an individual would have risk of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) from a particular medicine. Robust cost-effectiveness results on genetic testing would be useful for clinical practice and policy decision-making on allocating resources effectively. This study aimed to update a systematic review on economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic testing to prevent ADRs and critically appraise the quality of reporting and sources of evidence for model input parameters.

Methods

We searched studies through Medline via PubMed, Scopus and CRD’s NHS Economic Evaluation up to October 2019. Studies investigating polymorphism-based pharmacogenetic testing, which guided drug therapies to prevent ADRs, using economic evaluation methods were included. Two reviewers independently performed data extraction and assessed the quality of reporting using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) guidelines and the quality of data sources using the hierarchy of evidence developed by Cooper et al.

Results

Fifty-nine economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic testing to avoid drug-induced ADRs were found between 2002 and 2018. Cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses were the most common methods of economic evaluation of pharmacogenetic testing. Most studies complied with the CHEERS checklist, except for single study-based economic evaluations which did not report uncertainty analysis (78%). There was a lack of high-quality evidence not only for estimating the clinical effectiveness of pharmacogenetic testing, but also baseline clinical data. About 14% of the studies obtained clinical effectiveness data of testing from a meta-analysis of case-control studies with direct comparison, which was not listed in the hierarchy of evidence used.

Conclusions

Our review suggested that future single study-based economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic testing should report uncertainty analysis, as this could significantly affect the robustness of economic evaluation results. A specific ranking system for the quality of evidence is needed for the economic evaluation of pharmacogenetic testing of ADRs. Differences in parameters, methods and outcomes across studies, as well as population-level and system-level differences, may lead to the difficulty of comparing cost-effectiveness results across countries.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-07025-8.

The Interface of Therapeutics and Genomics in Cardiovascular Medicine

Pharmacogenomics has a burgeoning role in cardiovascular medicine, from warfarin dosing to antiplatelet choice, with recent developments in sequencing bringing the promise of personalised medicine ever closer to the bedside. Further scientific evidence, real-world clinical trials, and economic modelling are needed to fully realise this potential. Additionally, tools such as polygenic risk scores, and results from Mendelian randomisation analyses, are only in the early stages of clinical translation and merit further investigation. Genetically targeted rational drug design has a strong evidence base and, due to the nature of genetic data, academia, direct-to-consumer companies, healthcare systems, and industry may meet in an unprecedented manner. Data sharing navigation may prove problematic. The present manuscript addresses these issues and concludes a need for further guidance to be provided to prescribers by professional bodies to aid in the consideration of such complexities and guide translation of scientific knowledge to personalised clinical action, thereby striving to improve patient care. Additionally, technologic infrastructure equipped to handle such large complex data must be adapted to pharmacogenomics and made user friendly for prescribers and patients alike.

Systematic review of the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenomics-guided treatment for cardiovascular diseases

PURPOSE

To examine the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of implementing pharmacogenomics (PGx) in cardiovascular disease (CVD) care.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review using multiple databases from inception to 2018. The titles and abstracts of cost-effectiveness studies on PGx-guided treatment in CVD care were screened, and full texts were extracted.

RESULTS

We screened 909 studies and included 46 to synthesize. Acute coronary syndrome and atrial fibrillation were the predominantly studied conditions (59%). Most studies (78%) examined warfarin-CYP2C9/VKORC1 or clopidogrel-CYP2C19. A payer's perspective was commonly used (39%) for cost calculations, and most studies (46%) were US-based. The majority (67%) of the studies found PGx testing to be cost-effective in CVD care, but cost-effectiveness varied across drugs and conditions. Two studies examined PGx panel testing, of which one examined pre-emptive testing strategies.

CONCLUSION

We found mixed evidence on the cost-effectiveness of PGx in CVD care. Supportive evidence exists for clopidogrel-CYP2C19 and warfarin-CYP2C9/VKORC1, but evidence is limited in other drug-gene combinations. Gaps persist, including unclear explanation of perspective and cost inputs, underreporting of study design elements critical to economic evaluations, and limited examination of PGx panel and pre-emptive testing for their cost-effectiveness. This review identifies the need for further research on economic evaluations of PGx implementation.

Cost-effectiveness of the pharmacist-assisted warfarin monitoring program at a Medical Center in Taiwan

Objective

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of the first patient self-paying pharmacist-assisted warfarin monitoring (PAWM) program in Taiwan.

Design

A Markov model with a 1-month cycle length and a 20-year time horizon was employed in this study. The model is composed of the following eight states: three no-event states (i.e. 'subtherapeutic,' 'within therapeutic' and 'supratherapeutic' states), two serious adverse events (AEs) (i.e. bleeding and thromboembolism), two sequelae states and death. The likelihood of events, costs and utilities were derived from local databases and literature, if applicable. This study was conducted with a payer's perspective and all costs were discounted with a rate of 3%.

Setting

A pharmacist-led clinic.

Participants

A hypothetical cohort of 10 000 participants.

Intervention(s)

PAWM versus usual care.

Main outcome measure(s)

Average quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and cost increments per patient, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results

The PAWM program resulted in an average of 0.13 QALYs gained and a cost increment of NT$53 850 (US$1683) per patient. As the ICER (NT$410 749 [US$12 836]) was less than the gross domestic product per capita (NT$631 142 [US$19 723]), the PAWM was considered to be very cost-effective. The sensitivity analyses suggested that our result was robust and that the PAWM program had an 86% probability of being very cost-effective.

Conclusions

Even if the costs saved from avoiding AEs were thought to be minimal due to the low-medical expenditures in Taiwan, the PAWM program was demonstrated to be economical. According to our findings, the policymakers should consider reimbursing such a service.

Benefit of Preemptive Pharmacogenetic Information on Clinical Outcome

The development of new knowledge around the genetic determinants of variable drug action has naturally raised the question of how this new knowledge can be used to improve the outcome of drug therapy. Two broad approaches have been taken: a point-of-care approach in which genotyping for specific variant(s) is undertaken at the time of drug prescription, and a preemptive approach in which multiple genetic variants are typed in an individual patient and the information archived for later use when a drug with a "pharmacogenetic story" is prescribed. This review addresses the current state of implementation, the rationale for these approaches, and barriers that must be overcome. Benefits to pharmacogenetic testing are only now being defined and will be discussed.

Genotype-guided warfarin therapy: current status

Warfarin pharmacogenomics has been an extensively studied field in the last decades as it is focused on personalized therapy to overcome the wide interpatient warfarin response variability and decrease the risk of side effects. In this expert review, besides briefly summarizing the current knowledge about warfarin pharmacogenetics, we also present an overview of recent studies that aimed to assess the efficacy, safety and economic issues related to genotype-based dosing algorithms used to guide warfarin therapy, including randomized and controlled clinical trials, meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness studies. To date, the findings still present disparities, mostly because of standard limitations. Thus, further studies should be encouraged to try to demonstrate the benefits of the application of warfarin pharmacogenomic dosing algorithms in clinical practice.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of patient self-testing therapy of oral anticoagulation

Patient Self-testing (PST) could be an option for present anticoagulation therapy monitoring, but current evidence on its cost-effectiveness is limited. This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PST to other different care approaches for anticoagulation therapy in Thailand, a low-to-middle income country (LMIC). A Markov model was used to compare lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued to patients receiving warfarin through PST or either anticoagulation clinic (AC) or usual care (UC). The model was populated with relevant information from literature, network meta-analysis, and database analyses. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were presented as the year 2015 values. A base-case analysis was performed for patients at age 45-year-old. Sensitivity analyses including one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were constructed to determine the robustness of the findings. From societal perspective, PST increased QALY by 0.87 and costs by 112,461 THB compared with UC. Compared with AC, PST increased QALY by 0.161 and costs by 21,019 THB. The ICER with PST was 128,697 (3625 USD) and 130,493 THB (3676 USD) per QALY gained compared with UC and AC, respectively. The probability of PST being cost-effective is 74.1% and 51.9%, compared to UC and AC, respectively, in Thai context. Results were sensitive to the efficacy of PST, age and frequency of hospital visit or self-testing. This analysis suggested that PST is highly cost-effective compared with usual care and less cost-effective against anticoagulation clinic. Patient self-testing strategy appears to be economically valuable to include into healthcare system within the LMIC context.

Creating a genotype-based dosing algorithm for acenocoumarol steady dose

Acenocoumarol is a commonly prescribed anticoagulant drug for the prophylaxis and treatment of venous and arterial thromboembolic disorders in several countries. In counterpart of warfarin, there is scarce information about pharmacogenetic algorithms for steady acenocoumarol dose estimation. The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm of prediction for acenocoumarol.The algorithm was created using the data from 973 retrospectively selected anticoagulated patients and was validated in a second independent cohort adding up to 2,683 patients. The best regression model to predict stable dosage in the Primary Cohort included clinical factors (age and body mass index, BSA) and genetic variants (VKORC1, CYP2C9* and CYP4F2 polymorphisms) and explained up to 50% of stable dose. In the validation study the clinical algorithm yielded an adjusted R2=0.15 (estimation´s standard error=4.5) and the genetic approach improved the dose forecast up to 30% (estimation´s standard error=4.6). Again, the best model combined clinical and genetic factors (R2= 0.48; estimation´s standard error=4) which provided the best results of doses estimates within 20% of the real dose in patients taking lower (≤7mg/week) or higher (≥25mg/week) acenocoumarol doses. In conclusion, we developed a prediction algorithm using clinical data and three polymorphisms in VKORC1, CYP2C9* and CYP4F2 genes that provided a steady acenocoumarol dose for about 50% of patients in the Validation Cohort. Such algorithm was especially useful to patients who need higher or lower acenocoumarol doses, those patients with higher time required until their stabilisation and are more prone to suffer a treatment derived complication.

The Value of Evidence in the Decision-Making Process for Reimbursement of Pharmacogenetic Dosing of Warfarin

BACKGROUND

After early clinical trials that evaluated pharmacogenetic (PG) algorithms, many healthcare payers were reluctant to cover this technology and, consequently, PG dosing of warfarin could not be translated into clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the value of upgrading evidence relating to PG dosing of warfarin from the healthcare payer perspective.

METHODS

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated PG dosing of warfarin were identified through a systematic literature search, and their findings were combined by a cumulative meta-analysis. A health economic model was used to estimate economic outcomes and to calculate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) as a measure of the value of clinical trials for decision makers.

RESULTS

Nine RCTs were identified and included in our analysis. The estimated difference in the percentage of time in the therapeutic range was 5.6 percentage points in 2007, decreasing to 4.3 percentage points when all studies were included. At a reimbursement price of €160 per PG testing, the EVPI for the clinical benefit was estimated at €80 and €90 per patient in 2007 and 2014, respectively. A reduction in the price of PG testing to €40, which was observed in this period, resulted in an EVPI of €3 per patient.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated cumulative effect of PG dosing has remained similar since 2007, but additional evidence has contributed to a more precise estimation. While these variations should not affect the reimbursement decision, a large decline in the cost of PG testing in recent years calls for reconsideration.

Cost Effectiveness of Genotype-Guided Warfarin Dosing in Patients with Mechanical Heart Valve Replacement Under the Fee-for-Service System

BACKGROUND

Although studies assessing the cost effectiveness of genotype-guided warfarin dosing for the management of atrial fibrillation, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism have been reported, no publications have addressed genotype-guided warfarin therapy in mechanical heart valve replacement (MHVR) patients or genotype-guided warfarin therapy under the fee-for-service (FFS) insurance system.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of genotype-guided warfarin dosing in patients with MHVR under the FFS system from the Korea healthcare sector perspective.

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of genotype-guided warfarin dosing compared with standard dosing. Estimates of clinical adverse event rates and health state utilities were derived from the published literature. The outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the range of plausible results.

RESULTS

In a base-case analysis, genotype-guided warfarin dosing was associated with marginally higher QALYs than standard warfarin dosing (6.088 vs. 6.083, respectively), at a slightly higher cost (US$6.8) (year 2016 values). The ICER was US$1356.2 per QALY gained. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was an 82.7% probability that genotype-guided dosing was dominant compared with standard dosing, and a 99.8% probability that it was cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$50,000 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSION

Compared with only standard warfarin therapy, genotype-guided warfarin dosing was cost effective in MHVR patients under the FFS insurance system.

Warfarin Pharmacogenomics in Diverse Populations

Genotype-guided warfarin dosing algorithms are a rational approach to optimize warfarin dosing and potentially reduce adverse drug events. Diverse populations, such as African Americans and Latinos, have greater variability in warfarin dose requirements and are at greater risk for experiencing warfarin-related adverse events compared with individuals of European ancestry. Although these data suggest that patients of diverse populations may benefit from improved warfarin dose estimation, the vast majority of literature on genotype-guided warfarin dosing, including data from prospective randomized trials, is in populations of European ancestry. Despite differing frequencies of variants by race/ethnicity, most evidence in diverse populations evaluates variants that are most common in populations of European ancestry. Algorithms that do not include variants important across race/ethnic groups are unlikely to benefit diverse populations. In some race/ethnic groups, development of race-specific or admixture-based algorithms may facilitate improved genotype-guided warfarin dosing algorithms above and beyond that seen in individuals of European ancestry. These observations should be considered in the interpretation of literature evaluating the clinical utility of genotype-guided warfarin dosing. Careful consideration of race/ethnicity and additional evidence focused on improving warfarin dosing algorithms across race/ethnic groups will be necessary for successful clinical implementation of warfarin pharmacogenomics. The evidence for warfarin pharmacogenomics has a broad significance for pharmacogenomic testing, emphasizing the consideration of race/ethnicity in discovery of gene-drug pairs and development of clinical recommendations for pharmacogenetic testing.

Are Evidence Standards Different for Genomic- vs. Clinical-Based Precision Medicine? A Quantitative Analysis of Individualized Warfarin Therapy

Evidence requirements for implementation of precision medicine (PM), whether informed by genomic or clinical data, are not well defined. Evidence requirements are driven by uncertainty and its attendant consequences; these aspects can be quantified by a novel technique in health economics: value of information analysis (VOI). We utilized VOI analysis to compare the evidence levels over time for warfarin dosing based on pharmacogenomic vs. amiodarone-warfarin drug-drug interaction information. The primary outcome was the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which is an estimate of the upper limit of the societal value of conducting future research. Over the past decade, the EVPI for the pharmacogenomic strategy decreased from $1,550 to $140 vs. $1,220 to $280 per patient for the drug-interaction strategy. Evidence levels thus appear to be higher for pharmacogenomic-guided vs. drug-interaction-guided warfarin dosing. Clinical guidelines and reimbursement policies for warfarin PM could be informed by these findings.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetic-guided treatment: are we there yet?

Pharmacogenetics (PGx) has the potential to personalize pharmaceutical treatments. Many relevant gene-drug associations have been discovered, but PGx-guided treatment needs to be cost-effective as well as clinically beneficial to be incorporated into standard health-care. We reviewed economic evaluations for PGx associations listed in the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Table of Pharmacogenomic Biomarkers in Drug Labeling. We determined the proportion of evaluations that found PGx-guided treatment to be cost-effective or dominant over the alternative strategies, and estimated the impact on this proportion of removing the cost of genetic testing. Of the 137 PGx associations in the FDA table, 44 economic evaluations, relating to 10 drugs, were identified. Of these evaluations, 57% drew conclusions in favour of PGx testing, of which 30% were cost-effective and 27% were dominant (cost-saving). If genetic information was freely available, 75% of economic evaluations would support PGx-guided treatment, of which 25% would be cost-effective and 50% would be dominant. Thus, PGx-guided treatment can be a cost-effective and even a cost-saving strategy. Having genetic information readily available in the clinical health record is a realistic future prospect, and would make more genetic tests economically worthwhile.

A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Pharmacogenetic Testing for Prevention of Adverse Drug Reactions

BACKGROUND

Pharmacogenetics offers the potential to improve health outcomes by identifying individuals who are at greater risk of harm from certain medicines. Routine adoption of pharmacogenetic tests requires evidence of their cost effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE

The present review aims to systematically review published economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic tests that aim to prevent or reduce the incidence of ADRs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review of economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic tests aimed to reduce the incidence of adverse drug reactions. Literature was searched using Embase, MEDLINE and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database with search terms relating to pharmacogenetic testing, adverse drug reactions, economic evaluations and pharmaceuticals. Titles were screened independently by two reviewers. Articles deemed to meet the inclusion criteria were screened independently on abstract, and full texts reviewed.

RESULTS

We identified 852 articles, of which 47 met the inclusion criteria. There was evidence supporting the cost effectiveness of testing for HLA-B*57:01 (prior to abacavir), HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 (prior to carbamazepine), HLA-B*58:01 (prior to allopurinol) and CYP2C19 (prior to clopidogrel treatment). Economic evidence was inconclusive with respect to TPMT (prior to 6-mercaptoputine, azathioprine and cisplatin therapy), CYP2C9 and VKORC1 (to inform genotype-guided dosing of coumarin derivatives), MTHFR (prior to methotrexate treatment) and factor V Leiden testing (prior to oral contraception). Testing for A1555G is not cost effective before prescribing aminoglycosides.

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic review identified robust evidence of the cost effectiveness of genotyping prior to treatment with a number of common drugs. However, further analyses and (or) availability of robust clinical evidence is necessary to make recommendations for others.

Edoxaban versus warfarin for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Edoxaban, an oral direct factor Xa inhibitor, has been found non-inferior to warfarin for preventing stroke and systemic embolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), with a lower rate of intracranial bleeding. The aim of our investigation was to assess the cost-effectiveness of edoxaban versus warfarin from the perspective of the Italian health-care system. A Markov decision model was used to evaluate lifetime cost and quality-adjusted life expectancy of NVAF patients treated with warfarin or edoxaban. Transition probabilities were obtained from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, cost estimates were based on Italian prices and tariffs, utilities were obtained from the literature. One-way and second-order sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base case, lifetime costs were €18,658 for edoxaban and €14,060 for warfarin. Discounted quality-adjusted survival was 9.022 years for edoxaban and 8.425 years for warfarin, leading to an incremental cost-utility ratio of €7,713 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results were sensitive to time horizon, time in therapeutic range of warfarin and to the relative impact of warfarin versus edoxaban therapy onto quality of life. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed edoxaban to be cost-effective versus warfarin in 92.3 % of the simulations at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €25,000 per QALY. In conclusion, edoxaban proved to be a cost-effective alternative to warfarin in patients with moderate-to-high-risk NVAF.

Economic evaluation of a pharmacogenetic dosing algorithm for coumarin anticoagulants in The Netherlands

AIM

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of a pharmacogenetic dosing algorithm versus a clinical dosing algorithm for coumarin anticoagulants in The Netherlands.

MATERIALS & METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was used to analyze the cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetic dosing of phenprocoumon and acenocoumarol versus clinical dosing.

RESULTS

Pharmacogenetic dosing increased costs by €33 and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) by 0.001. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were €28,349 and €24,427 per QALY gained for phenprocoumon and acenocoumarol, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY, the pharmacogenetic dosing algorithm was not likely to be cost effective compared with the clinical dosing algorithm.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacogenetic dosing improves health only slightly when compared with clinical dosing. However, availability of low-cost genotyping would make it a cost-effective option.

Economic Evaluations of Pharmacogenetic and Pharmacogenomic Screening Tests: A Systematic Review. Second Update of the Literature

Objective

Due to extended application of pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic screening (PGx) tests it is important to assess whether they provide good value for money. This review provides an update of the literature.

Methods

A literature search was performed in PubMed and papers published between August 2010 and September 2014, investigating the cost-effectiveness of PGx screening tests, were included. Papers from 2000 until July 2010 were included via two previous systematic reviews. Studies’ overall quality was assessed with the Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) instrument.

Results

We found 38 studies, which combined with the previous 42 studies resulted in a total of 80 included studies. An average QHES score of 76 was found. Since 2010, more studies were funded by pharmaceutical companies. Most recent studies performed cost-utility analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and discussed limitations of their economic evaluations. Most studies indicated favorable cost-effectiveness. Majority of evaluations did not provide information regarding the intrinsic value of the PGx test. There were considerable differences in the costs for PGx testing. Reporting of the direction and magnitude of bias on the cost-effectiveness estimates as well as motivation for the chosen economic model and perspective were frequently missing.

Conclusions

Application of PGx tests was mostly found to be a cost-effective or cost-saving strategy. We found that only the minority of recent pharmacoeconomic evaluations assessed the intrinsic value of the PGx tests. There was an increase in the number of studies and in the reporting of quality associated characteristics. To improve future evaluations, scenario analysis including a broad range of PGx tests costs and equal costs of comparator drugs to assess the intrinsic value of the PGx tests, are recommended. In addition, robust clinical evidence regarding PGx tests’ efficacy remains of utmost importance.

The value of routine pharmacogenomic screening-Are we there yet? A perspective on the costs and benefits of routine screening-shouldn't everyone have this done?

Although there are several examples in which pharmacogenomic testing seems to provide clinical and economic value, use of pharmacogenomics as a tool to improve drug therapy through routine screening of unselected patients is currently tentative. An informal evaluation of the clinical benefits and economic costs of pharmacogenomic screening suggests that improving the evidence base, addressing uncertainty, and facilitating implementation can lead to practical and cost-effective pharmacogenomic screening programs.

Pilot study of pharmacist-assisted delivery of pharmacogenetic testing in a primary care setting

AIM

To describe the rationale and design of a pilot program to implement and evaluate pharmacogenetic (PGx) testing in a primary care setting.

STUDY RATIONALE

Several factors have impeded the uptake of PGx testing, including lack of provider knowledge and challenges with operationalizing PGx testing in a clinical practice setting.

STUDY DESIGN

We plan to compare two strategies for the implementation of PGx testing: a pharmacist-initiated testing arm compared with a physician-initiated PGx testing arm. Providers in both groups will be required to attend an introduction to PGx seminar. Anticipated results: We anticipate that providers in the pharmacist-initiated group will be more likely to order PGx testing than providers in the physician-initiated group.

CONCLUSION

Overall, we aim to generate data that will inform an effective delivery model for PGx testing and to facilitate a seamless integration of PGx testing in primary care practices.

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Optimization of Risk Protection Under Budget Constraints

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is commonly applied as a tool for deciding on risk protection. With CBA, one can identify risk mitigation strategies that lead to an optimal tradeoff between the costs of the mitigation measures and the achieved risk reduction. In practical applications of CBA, the strategies are typically evaluated through efficiency indicators such as the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and the marginal cost (MC) criterion. In many of these applications, the BCR is not consistently defined, which, as we demonstrate in this article, can lead to the identification of suboptimal solutions. This is of particular relevance when the overall budget for risk reduction measures is limited and an optimal allocation of resources among different subsystems is necessary. We show that this problem can be formulated as a hierarchical decision problem, where the general rules and decisions on the available budget are made at a central level (e.g., central government agency, top management), whereas the decisions on the specific measures are made at the subsystem level (e.g., local communities, company division). It is shown that the MC criterion provides optimal solutions in such hierarchical optimization. Since most practical applications only include a discrete set of possible risk protection measures, the MC criterion is extended to this situation. The findings are illustrated through a hypothetical numerical example. This study was prepared as part of our work on the optimal management of natural hazard risks, but its conclusions also apply to other fields of risk management.

Pharmacogenetic-guided dosing of coumarin anticoagulants: algorithms for warfarin, acenocoumarol and phenprocoumon

Coumarin derivatives, such as warfarin, acenocoumarol and phenprocoumon are frequently prescribed oral anticoagulants to treat and prevent thromboembolism. Because there is a large inter-individual and intra-individual variability in dose-response and a small therapeutic window, treatment with coumarin derivatives is challenging. Certain polymorphisms in CYP2C9 and VKORC1 are associated with lower dose requirements and a higher risk of bleeding. In this review we describe the use of different coumarin derivatives, pharmacokinetic characteristics of these drugs and differences amongst the coumarins. We also describe the current clinical challenges and the role of pharmacogenetic factors. These genetic factors are used to develop dosing algorithms and can be used to predict the right coumarin dose. The effectiveness of this new dosing strategy is currently being investigated in clinical trials.

Cost effectiveness of new oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation in two different European healthcare settings

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to investigate the cost effectiveness of apixaban, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran compared with coumarin derivatives for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation in a country with specialized anticoagulation clinics (the Netherlands) and in a country without these clinics (the UK).

METHODS

A decision-analytic Markov model was used to analyse the cost effectiveness of apixaban, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran compared with coumarin derivatives in the Netherlands and the UK over a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

In the Netherlands, the use of rivaroxaban, apixaban, or dabigatran increased health by 0.166, 0.365, and 0.374 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with coumarin derivatives, but also increased costs by 5,681, 4,754, and 5,465, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were 34,248, 13,024, and 14,626 per QALY gained. In the UK, health was increased by 0.302, 0.455, and 0.461 QALYs, and the incremental costs were similar for all three new oral anticoagulants (5,118-5,217). The ICERs varied from 11,172 to 16,949 per QALY gained. In the Netherlands, apixaban had the highest chance (37 %) of being cost effective at a threshold of 20,000; in the UK, this chance was 41 % for dabigatran. The quality of care, reflected in time in therapeutic range, had an important influence on the ICER.

CONCLUSIONS

Apixaban, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran are cost-effective alternatives to coumarin derivatives in the UK, while in the Netherlands, only apixaban and dabigatran could be considered cost effective. The cost effectiveness of the new oral anticoagulants is largely dependent on the setting and quality of local anticoagulant care facilities.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pharmacogenetic-guided warfarin dosing in Thailand

INTRODUCTION

Pharmacogenetic (PGx) test is a useful tool for guiding physician on an initiation of an optimal warfarin dose. To implement of such strategy, the evidence on the economic value is needed. This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of PGx-guided warfarin dosing compared with usual care (UC).

METHODS

A decision analytic model was used to compare projected lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued to warfarin users through PGx or UC for a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 patients. The model was populated with relevant information from systematic review, and electronic hospital-database. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated based on healthcare system and societal perspectives. All costs were presented at year 2013. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the robustness of the findings.

RESULTS

From healthcare system perspective, PGx increases QALY by 0.002 and cost by 2,959 THB (99 USD) compared with UC. Thus, the ICER is 1,477,042 THB (49,234 USD) per QALY gained. From societal perspective, PGx results in 0.002 QALY gained, and increases costs by 2,953 THB (98 USD) compared with UC (ICER 1,473,852 THB [49,128 USD] per QALY gained). Results are sensitive to the risk ratio (RR) of major bleeding in VKORC1 variant, the efficacy of PGx-guided dosing, and the cost of PGx test.

CONCLUSION

Our finding suggests that PGx-guided warfarin dosing is unlikely to be a cost-effective intervention in Thailand. This evidence assists policy makers and clinicians in efficiently allocating scarce resources.

Is individualized medicine more cost-effective? A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Individualized medicine (IM) is a rapidly evolving field that is associated with both visions of more effective care at lower costs and fears of highly priced, low-value interventions. It is unclear which view is supported by the current evidence.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to systematically review the health economic evidence related to IM and to derive general statements on its cost-effectiveness.

DATA SOURCES

A literature search of MEDLINE database for English- and German-language studies was conducted.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHOD

Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility studies for technologies meeting the MEDLINE medical subject headings (MeSH) definition of IM (genetically targeted interventions) were reviewed. This was followed by a standardized extraction of general study characteristics and cost-effectiveness results.

RESULTS

Most of the 84 studies included in the synthesis were from the USA (n = 43, 51 %), cost-utility studies (n = 66, 79 %), and published since 2005 (n = 60, 71 %). The results ranged from dominant to dominated. The median value (cost-utility studies) was calculated to be rounded $US22,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (adjusted to $US, year 2008 values), which is equal to the rounded median cost-effectiveness in the peer-reviewed English-language literature according to a recent review. Many studies reported more than one strategy of IM with highly varying cost-effectiveness ratios. Generally, results differed according to test type, and tests for disease prognosis or screening appeared to be more favorable than tests to stratify patients by response or by risk of adverse effects. However, these results were not significant.

LIMITATIONS

Different definitions of IM could have been used. Quality assessment of the studies was restricted to analyzing transparency.

CONCLUSIONS

IM neither seems to display superior cost-effectiveness than other types of medical interventions nor to be economically inferior. Instead, rather than 'whether' healthcare was individualized, the question of 'how' it was individualized was of economic relevance.

Warfarin and atrial fibrillation: from ideal to real the warfarin affaire

Vitamin K Antagonists (VKAs) are widely used in clinical practice and nearly 1% of the entire population receives oral anticoagulation at least once in life. However, the rate of prescription of anticoagulation is low, compared to what it should be. No more than 50-60% of patients affected by atrial fibrillation (AF) receive anticoagulation. In the setting of AF, VKAs are safe and effective when properly managed, reducing stroke and systemic embolism by more than 60%. VKAs safety and effectiveness are closely related to the quality of anticoagulation (e.g. time in therapeutic range), and anticoagulation clinics offer the best management of anticoagulant therapy. However, a sizeable proportion of patients are managed elsewhere. In clinical practice, in the setting of AF, a low prescription rate of VKAs is frequently observed and this is due also to difficulties in managing laboratory monitoring and drug dose adjustment. The suboptimal management of therapy with VKAs leads to a lesser efficacy than that reported in clinical trials, and to an increase in adverse reactions. VKAs still remain the first and only available therapy for a number of diseases (e.g. valvular atrial fibrillation and mechanical prosthetic heart valves). Now, since approval of the new oral anticoagulants (NOAs), the choice of anticoagulant therapy in definite settings, such as stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (SPAF) or treatment of venous thromboembolism, has surely become more intriguing but also more problematic. In light of these new therapeutic options, we reviewed VKAs therapy, in the setting of atrial fibrillation, focusing on VKAs impact in real life. We analyzed the data about efficacy and safety of warfarin at three levels: clinical trial and real life, outside and inside anticoagulation clinics.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin therapy vs. alternative anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation

Pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin dosing is an alternative to standard clinical algorithms and new oral anticoagulants for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. However, clinical evidence for pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin dosing is limited to intermediary outcomes, and consequently, there is a lack of information on the cost-effectiveness of anticoagulation treatment options. A clinical trial simulation of S-warfarin was used to predict times within therapeutic range for different dosing algorithms. Relative risks of clinical events, obtained from a meta-analysis of trials linking times within therapeutic range with outcomes, served as inputs to an economic analysis. Neither dabigatran nor rivaroxaban were cost-effective options. Along the cost-effectiveness frontier, in relation to clinically dosed warfarin, pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin and apixaban had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £13,226 and £20,671 per quality-adjusted life year gained, respectively. On the basis of our simulations, apixaban appears to be the most cost-effective treatment.

Dabigatran versus warfarin under standard or pharmacogenetic-guided management for the prevention of stroke and systemic thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cost/utility analysis using an analytic decision model

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common form of heart arrhythmia and a leading cause of stroke and systemic embolism. Chronic anticoagulation is recommended for preventing those complications. Our study aimed to compare the cost/utility (CU) of three main anticoagulation options: 1) standard warfarin dosing (SD-W) 2) warfarin dosage under the guidance of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotyping (GT-W) and 3) dabigatran 150 mg twice a day.

METHODS

A Markov state transition model was built to simulate the expected C/U of dabigatran, SD-W and GT-W anticoagulation therapy for the prevention of stroke and systemic thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation over a period of 5 years under the perspective of the public health care system. Model inputs were derived from extensive literature search and government's data bases. Outcomes considered were the number of total major events (thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events), total costs in Canadian dollars (1CAD$ = 1$US), total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs/QALYs and incremental costs/QALYs gained (ICUR).

RESULTS

Raw base case results show that SD-W has the lowest C/U ratio. However, the dabigatran option might be considered as an alternative, as its cost per additional QALY gained compared to SD-W is CAD $ 4 765, i.e. less than 50 000, the ICUR threshold generally accepted to adopt an intervention. At the same threshold, GT-W doesn't appear to be an alternative to SD-W. Our results were robust to one-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

SD-W has the lowest C/U ratio among the 3 options. However, dabigatran might be considered as an alternative. GT-W is not C/U and should not currently be recommended for the routine anticoagulotherapy management of AF patients.

Cost–effectiveness of pharmacogenetic-guided dosing of phenprocoumon in atrial fibrillation

Aim: To investigate the cost–effectiveness of pharmacogenetic-guided phenprocoumon dosing versus standard anticoagulation care in Dutch patients with atrial fibrillation. Materials & methods: Using a decision-analytic Markov model, cost–effectiveness of pharmacogenetic-guided therapy versus standard care was estimated. Results: Compared with standard care, the pharmacogenetic-guided dosing strategy increased quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) only very slightly and increased costs by €15. The incremental cost–effectiveness ratio was €2658 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analyses, the cost of genotyping had the largest influence on the cost–effectiveness ratio. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the incremental costs of genotype-guided dosing were less than €20,000 per QALY gained in 75.6% of the simulations. Conclusion: Pharmacogenetic-guided dosing of phenprocoumon has the potential to increase health slightly and may be able to achieve this in a cost-effective way. Owing to the many uncertainties it is too early to conclude whether or not patients starting phenprocoumon should be genotyped.

Original submitted 20 December 2012; Revision submitted 8 April 2013

Pharmacogenetic testing: Current Evidence of Clinical Utility

Over the last decade, the number of clinical pharmacogenetic tests has steadily increased as understanding of the role of genes in drug response has grown. However, uptake of these tests has been slow, due in large part to the lack of robust evidence demonstrating clinical utility. We review the evidence behind four pharmacogenetic tests and discuss the barriers and facilitators to uptake: 1) warfarin (drug safety and efficacy); 2) clopidogrel (drug efficacy); 3) codeine (drug efficacy); and 4) abacavir (drug safety). Future efforts should be directed toward addressing these issues and considering additional approaches to generating evidence basis to support clinical use of pharmacogenetic tests.

Comparative effectiveness of dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and warfarin in the management of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

Alternative anticoagulants to warfarin (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban) are becoming available for the prevention of thromboembolic stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF), but there is a lack of information on their comparative effectiveness. Using a discrete event simulation method adopting a lifetime horizon of analysis, we made an indirect comparison of the RE-LY, ROCKET-AF, and ARISTOTLE trial results for AF patients in the US population. Over a lifetime, apixaban, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban accrued 0.130 (95% central range (CR) -0.030 to 0.264), 0.106 (95% CR -0.048 to 0.248), and 0.095 (95% CR -0.052 to 0.242) more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), respectively, than warfarin, with apixaban having a 55% probability of accruing the highest total QALYs. In the absence of a definitive trial, and acknowledging the limitations of an indirect comparison, the available evidence suggests apixaban to be the most effective anticoagulant.

Review of economics and cost-effectiveness analyses of anticoagulant therapy for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation in the US

OBJECTIVE

To summarize the available evidence on the issues in health economics related to oral anticoagulation for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) in the US.

DATA SOURCES

A literature review was performed using PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, as well as the websites of professional organizations.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

The search was conducted according to a prespecified protocol, limiting articles to those published in English from 2001 to October 2012 and focused on the economics associated with AF and AF-related stroke in the US. Data from 27 studies were extracted and included in the review.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Strokes in patients with AF are more debilitating and have higher recurrence rates and mortality compared with strokes unrelated to AF. However, data describing the long-term cost of AF-related stroke and stroke subtypes remain limited. The costs of major gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and intracranial bleeding related to warfarin are significant, whereas the costs of the more frequent minor GI bleeding are relatively low. Overall, the cost-effectiveness of warfarin versus aspirin or no treatment in patients with at least 1 risk factor for stroke is well established. Economic evaluations based on results from randomized controlled clinical trials generally found that new anticoagulants were a cost-effective alternative to warfarin for stroke prevention in AF. However, these cost-effectiveness results are highly sensitive to how well optimal international normalized ratio control is maintained (within target of 2.0-3.0) for warfarin and the time horizon used for analysis. Time in therapeutic range for warfarin in routine clinical practice was lower than in clinical trials, as shown by previous studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified several areas of uncertainty regarding the economic benefit of anticoagulants. The generalizability of cost-effectiveness results of anticoagulant therapy in AF based on clinical trial data must be confirmed by comparative effectiveness research conducted in the real-world setting.

Implementing genomic medicine in the clinic: the future is here

Although the potential for genomics to contribute to clinical care has long been anticipated, the pace of defining the risks and benefits of incorporating genomic findings into medical practice has been relatively slow. Several institutions have recently begun genomic medicine programs, encountering many of the same obstacles and developing the same solutions, often independently. Recognizing that successful early experiences can inform subsequent efforts, the National Human Genome Research Institute brought together a number of these groups to describe their ongoing projects and challenges, identify common infrastructure and research needs, and outline an implementation framework for investigating and introducing similar programs elsewhere. Chief among the challenges were limited evidence and consensus on which genomic variants were medically relevant; lack of reimbursement for genomically driven interventions; and burden to patients and clinicians of assaying, reporting, intervening, and following up genomic findings. Key infrastructure needs included an openly accessible knowledge base capturing sequence variants and their phenotypic associations and a framework for defining and cataloging clinically actionable variants. Multiple institutions are actively engaged in using genomic information in clinical care. Much of this work is being done in isolation and would benefit from more structured collaboration and sharing of best practices.

Genet Med 2013:15(4):258–267

State-Transition Modeling

State-transition modeling (STM) is an intuitive, flexible, and transparent approach of computer-based decision-analytic modeling, including both Markov model cohort simulation as well as individual-based (first-order Monte Carlo) microsimulation. Conceptualizing a decision problem in terms of a set of (health) states and transitions among these states, STM is one of the most widespread modeling techniques in clinical decision analysis, health technology assessment, and health-economic evaluation. STMs have been used in many different populations and diseases, and their applications range from personalized health care strategies to public health programs. Most frequently, state-transition models are used in the evaluation of risk factor interventions, screening, diagnostic procedures, treatment strategies, and disease management programs.

State-transition modeling: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force--3

State-transition modeling is an intuitive, flexible, and transparent approach of computer-based decision-analytic modeling including both Markov model cohort simulation and individual-based (first-order Monte Carlo) microsimulation. Conceptualizing a decision problem in terms of a set of (health) states and transitions among these states, state-transition modeling is one of the most widespread modeling techniques in clinical decision analysis, health technology assessment, and health-economic evaluation. State-transition models have been used in many different populations and diseases, and their applications range from personalized health care strategies to public health programs. Most frequently, state-transition models are used in the evaluation of risk factor interventions, screening, diagnostic procedures, treatment strategies, and disease management programs. The goal of this article was to provide consensus-based guidelines for the application of state-transition models in the context of health care. We structured the best practice recommendations in the following sections: choice of model type (cohort vs. individual-level model), model structure, model parameters, analysis, reporting, and communication. In each of these sections, we give a brief description, address the issues that are of particular relevance to the application of state-transition models, give specific examples from the literature, and provide best practice recommendations for state-transition modeling. These recommendations are directed both to modelers and to users of modeling results such as clinicians, clinical guideline developers, manufacturers, or policymakers.

[Clinical and health economic challenges of personalized medicine]

Healthcare systems across the globe are currently challenged by aging populations, increases in chronic diseases and the difficult task of managing a healthcare budget. In this health economic climate, personalized medicine promises not only an improvement in healthcare delivery but also the possibility of more cost-effective therapies. It is important to remember, however, that personalized medicine has the potential to both increase and decrease costs. Each targeted therapy must be evaluated individually. However, standard clinical trial design is not suitable for personalized therapies. Therefore, both scientists and regulatory authorities will need to accept innovative study designs in order to validate personalized therapies. Hence correct economic evaluations are difficult to carry out due to lack of clear clinical evidence, longitudinal accounting and experience with patient/clinician behavior in the context of personalized medicine. In terms of reimbursement, payers, pharmaceutical companies and companion diagnostic manufacturers will also need to explore creative risk-sharing concepts. Germany is no exception to the challenges that face personalized medicine and for personalized medicine to really become the future of medicine many health economic challenges first need to be overcome. The health economic implications of personalized medicine remain unclear but it is certain that the expansion of targeted therapies in current healthcare systems will create a host of challenges.