An analysis of NICE's 'restricted' (or 'optimized') decisions

Does NICE influence the adoption and uptake of generics in the UK?

The aim of this paper is to examine generic competition in the UK, with a special focus on the role of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) on generic market entry and diffusion. In the UK, where no direct price regulation on pharmaceuticals exists, HTA has a leading role for recommending the use of medicines providing a non-regulatory aspect that may influence the dynamics in the generic market. The paper focuses on the role of Technology Appraisals issued by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). We follow a two-step approach. First, we examine the probability of generic entry. Second, conditional on generic entry, we examine the determinants of generic market share. We use data from IQVIA British Pharmaceutical Index (BPI) for the primary care market for 60 products that lost patent between 2003 and 2012. Our results suggest that market size remains one of the main drivers of generic entry. After controlling for market size, intermolecular substitution and difficulty of manufacturing increase the likelihood of generic entry. After generic entry, our estimates suggest that generic market share is highly state dependent. Our findings also suggest that while NICE recommendations do influence generic uptake, there is only marginal evidence they affect generic entry.

Benchmarking health technology assessment agencies-methodological challenges and recommendations

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the study were to establish a benchmarking tool to collect metrics to enable increased clarity regarding the differences and similarities across health technology assessment (HTA) agencies, to assess performance within and across HTA agencies, identify areas in the HTA processes in which time is spent and to enable ongoing performance improvement.

METHODS

Common steps and milestones in the HTA process were identified for meaningful benchmarking among agencies. A benchmarking tool consisting of eighty-six questions providing information on HTA agency organizational aspects and information on individual new medicine review timelines and outcomes was developed with the input of HTA agencies and validated in a pilot study. Data on 109 HTA reviews from five HTA agencies were analyzed to demonstrate the utility of this tool.

RESULTS

This study developed an HTA benchmarking methodology, comparative metrics showed considerable differences among the median timelines from assessment and appraisal to final HTA recommendation for the five agencies included in this analysis; these results were interpreted in conjunction with agency characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to find consensus among HTA agencies regarding the common milestones of the review process to map jurisdiction-specific processes against agreed metrics. Data on characteristics of agencies such as their scope and remit enabled results to be interpreted in the appropriate local context. This benchmarking tool has promising potential utility to improve the transparency of the review process and to facilitate both quality assurance and performance improvement in HTA agencies.

Access to medicines - a systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Budgetary constraints and the rising cost of new innovative medicines are the key challenges for access to medicines. Multiple research studies explored diverse dimensions of this topic, however, a thorough and detailed review of existing literature on access to medicines in United Kingdom is lacking. Therefore, the objective of this systematic review of literature was to critically review and analyse the literature pertaining to original research on access to medicines issue in the United Kingdom. This review includes two types of studies: (a) UK centric studies (b) studies comparing UK with the other countries.

METHODS

A systematic search of articles published between Jan 2008 and October 12, 2018 was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines using the following databases: PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and specific journals including BMJ, Lancet, Value in Health, Pharmacoeconomics, Pharmacoeconomics Open, Journal of pharmaceutical policy and practice, Health Policy.

RESULTS

The searches across all databases and journals resulted in 53 relevant articles. The data extracted from the 53 articles generated key themes. These themes included: Access to Medicines, Health technology assessment (HTA), Pricing and Health technology assessment, Risk Sharing Agreements & Stakeholders involvement/views on reimbursement Process. Subthemes were added under the key themes where applicable.

CONCLUSIONS

This review systematically evaluated the current literature and identified variability in access to medicines across countries in UK &EU and across different categories of medicines. Medicine licensing and reimbursement environment is continuously evolving and there are challenges as well as opportunities for learning and collaboration among countries which are at different stages of advancement in their systems.

Obinutuzumab in Combination with Chemotherapy for the First-Line Treatment of Patients with Advanced Follicular Lymphoma : An Evidence Review Group Evaluation of the NICE Single Technology Appraisal

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), as part of the institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process, invited the company that makes obinutuzumab (Roche Products Limited) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug in combination with chemotherapy, with or without obinutuzumab as maintenance therapy for adult patients with untreated, advanced follicular lymphoma (FL) in the UK. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company's submission, the ERG review, and NICE's subsequent decisions. The clinical evidence was derived from two phase III, company-sponsored, randomised, open-label studies. Most evidence on obinutuzumab was based on the GALLIUM trial that compared obinutuzumab in combination with chemotherapy as induction followed by obinutuzumab maintenance monotherapy with rituximab in combination with chemotherapy as induction followed by rituximab maintenance monotherapy in previously untreated patients with FL (grades 1-3a). Long-term clinical evidence was based on the PRIMA trial, studying the benefit of two years of rituximab maintenance after first-line treatment in patients with FL. The cost-effectiveness evidence submitted by the company relied on a partitioned survival cost-utility model, implemented in Microsoft® Excel. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) presented in the company submission was <£20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Although the ERG concluded that the economic model met the NICE reference case to a reasonable extent, some errors were identified and several assumptions made by the company were challenged. A new base-case scenario produced by the ERG suggested an ICER that was higher than the company base case, but still below £30,000 per QALY gained. However, some ERG scenario analyses were close to or even above the threshold. This was the case in particular for assuming a treatment effect that did not extend beyond trial follow-up. These results led to an initial negative recommendation by the appraisal committee. Subsequently, the company submitted a revised base case focusing on patients at intermediate or high risk of premature mortality. Simultaneously, a further price discount for obinutuzumab was granted. In addition to the company's revised base case, the ERG suggested a restriction of the treatment effect to 5 years and implemented biosimilar uptake and cheaper prices for rituximab. All of these adjustments did not exceed £30,000 per QALY gained and therefore the use of obinutuzumab for patients with advanced FL and a Follicular Lymphoma International Predictive Index (FLIPI) score of two or more could be recommended.

O acesso a medicamentos em sistemas universais de saúde – perspectivas e desafios

RESUMO Este estudo objetivou analisar os desafios do acesso a medicamentos em quatro sistemas universais de saúde da Austrália, do Brasil, do Canadá e do Reino Unido. Estudo qualitativo crítico-reflexivo por meio de revisão integrativa da literatura. Um dos grandes desafios dos sistemas estudados é o da incorporação de medicamentos de alto custo, via análises de custo-efetividade para cumprir a difícil tarefa de conciliar a justiça social e a equidade no acesso com sustentabilidade econômica. Particularmente o Canadá, mesmo sendo um país desenvolvido, ainda vive o dilema de como financiar um sistema de saúde no qual o acesso a medicamentos também seja universal. O Brasil convive com duas realidades problemáticas: primeiro, dar acesso a medicamentos, já padronizados pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), diante de um financiamento diminuto, segundo, de maneira semelhante aos sistemas australiano, canadense e inglês, vive o dilema de como incorporar novos medicamentos eficazes e com viabilidade econômica, além da questão da judicialização da saúde, um fenômeno complexo resultante da fragilidade pública na organização, financiamento, consolidação do SUS.

The Influence of Cost-Effectiveness and Other Factors on Nice Decisions

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) emphasises that cost-effectiveness is not the only consideration in health technology appraisal and is increasingly explicit about other factors considered relevant but not the weight attached to each. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of cost-effectiveness and other factors on NICE decisions and whether NICE's decision-making has changed over time. We model NICE's decisions as binary choices for or against a health care technology in a specific patient group. Independent variables comprised of the following: clinical and economic evidence; characteristics of patients, disease or treatment; and contextual factors potentially affecting decision-making. Data on all NICE decisions published by December 2011 were obtained from HTAinSite [www.htainsite.com]. Cost-effectiveness alone correctly predicted 82% of decisions; few other variables were significant and alternative model specifications had similar performance. There was no evidence that the threshold has changed significantly over time. The model with highest prediction accuracy suggested that technologies costing £40 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) have a 50% chance of NICE rejection (75% at £52 000/QALY; 25% at £27 000/QALY). Past NICE decisions appear to have been based on a higher threshold than £20 000-£30 000/QALY. However, this may reflect consideration of other factors that cannot be easily quantified. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drug delivery system innovation and Health Technology Assessment: Upgrading from Clinical to Technological Assessment

Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a multidisciplinary health political instrument that evaluates the consequences, mainly clinical and economical, of a health care technology; the HTA aim is to produce and spread information on scientific and technological innovation for health political decision making process. Drug delivery systems (DDS), such as nanocarriers, are technologically complex but they have pivotal relevance in therapeutic innovation. The HTA process, as commonly applied to conventional drug evaluation, should upgrade to a full pharmaceutical assessment, considering the DDS complexity. This is useful to study more in depth the clinical outcome and to broaden its critical assessment toward pharmaceutical issues affecting the patient and not measured by the current clinical evidence approach. We draw out the expertise necessary to perform the pharmaceutical assessment and we propose a format to evaluate the DDS technological topics such as formulation and mechanism of action, physicochemical characteristics, manufacturing process. We integrated the above-mentioned three points in the Evidence Based Medicine approach, which is data source for any HTA process. In this regard, the introduction of a Pharmaceutics Expert figure in the HTA could be fundamental to grant a more detailed evaluation of medicine product characteristics and performances and to help optimizing DDS features to overcome R&D drawbacks. Some aspects of product development, such as manufacturing processes, should be part of the HTA as innovative manufacturing processes allow new products to reach more effectively patient bedside. HTA so upgraded may encourage resource allocating payers to invest in innovative technologies and providers to focus on innovative material properties and manufacturing processes, thus contributing to bring more medicines in therapy in a sustainable manner.

Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside clinical trials II-An ISPOR Good Research Practices Task Force report

Clinical trials evaluating medicines, medical devices, and procedures now commonly assess the economic value of these interventions. The growing number of prospective clinical/economic trials reflects both widespread interest in economic information for new technologies and the regulatory and reimbursement requirements of many countries that now consider evidence of economic value along with clinical efficacy. As decision makers increasingly demand evidence of economic value for health care interventions, conducting high-quality economic analyses alongside clinical studies is desirable because they broaden the scope of information available on a particular intervention, and can efficiently provide timely information with high internal and, when designed and analyzed properly, reasonable external validity. In 2005, ISPOR published the Good Research Practices for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Alongside Clinical Trials: The ISPOR RCT-CEA Task Force report. ISPOR initiated an update of the report in 2014 to include the methodological developments over the last 9 years. This report provides updated recommendations reflecting advances in several areas related to trial design, selecting data elements, database design and management, analysis, and reporting of results. Task force members note that trials should be designed to evaluate effectiveness (rather than efficacy) when possible, should include clinical outcome measures, and should obtain health resource use and health state utilities directly from study subjects. Collection of economic data should be fully integrated into the study. An incremental analysis should be conducted with an intention-to-treat approach, complemented by relevant subgroup analyses. Uncertainty should be characterized. Articles should adhere to established standards for reporting results of cost-effectiveness analyses. Economic studies alongside trials are complementary to other evaluations (e.g., modeling studies) as information for decision makers who consider evidence of economic value along with clinical efficacy when making resource allocation decisions.

Early Benefit Assessment of Pharmaceuticals in Germany

Background. Since 2011, when the German Pharmaceutical Market Restructuring Act (AMNOG) came into effect, newly licensed pharmaceuticals must demonstrate an added benefit over a comparator treatment to be reimbursed at a value greater than the reference price. Evidence submitted by manufacturers is assessed by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) and subsequently appraised by the German Federal Joint Committee (FJC) as part of so-called early benefit assessments (EBA). This study aims to explain the decisions made, clarify the roles of the parties (manufacturers, IQWiG, FJC) involved, and guide manufacturers in developing future submissions by analyzing 42 EBAs concluded since January 2011. Methods. We developed a variable list representing the essential components of the EBA: the rating decisions of manufacturers, IQWiG, and the FJC regarding each pharmaceutical’s added benefit; the characteristics of the pharmaceutical; the characteristics of the EBA process; the types of evidence submitted; the methods used to generate evidence; and the pharmaceutical’s maximum possible budget impact. We used Cohen’s kappa to analyze agreement between the rating decisions of the different parties. The chi-square test and bivariate regression were used to identify associations between components of the EBA process and the rating decisions of the FJC. Results. We observed a low level of agreement between manufacturers and the FJC (kappa = 0.21; 95% CI 0.107–0.31) and a substantial level of agreement between IQWiG and the FJC (kappa = 0.64; 95% CI 0.451–0.827) in their rating decisions. The characteristics of the EBA process—for example, duration of the process ( P = 0.357), participation in the official hearing ( P = 0.227), and the pharmaceutical’s budget impact ( P = 0.725)—did not have a significant effect on the rating decisions of the FJC. There was, however, an association between the type of evidence submitted and the FJC’s rating decision when the manufacturer’s dossier reported outcomes related to morbidity ( P = 0.009) or adverse events ( P < 0.001) but not mortality ( P = 0.718) or quality of life ( P = 0.783). Conclusions. While the FJC tends to disagree with the rating of benefit by manufacturers, it softens IQWiG’s decisions, potentially to make the final outcome more acceptable. Concerns voiced that the FJC might be exceeding its statutory authority by taking cost or procedural considerations into account appear to be unfounded. Choosing appropriate evidence to submit for each endpoint remains a challenge, as submission of health outcomes evidently influences decisions.

Modelling the cost effectiveness of disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis: issues to consider

Several cost-effectiveness models of disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis (MS) have been developed for different populations and different countries. Vast differences in the approaches and discrepancies in the results give rise to heated discussions and limit the use of these models. Our main objective is to discuss the methodological challenges in modelling the cost effectiveness of treatments for MS. We conducted a review of published models to describe the approaches taken to date, to identify the key parameters that influence the cost effectiveness of DMTs, and to point out major areas of weakness and uncertainty. Thirty-six published models and analyses were identified. The greatest source of uncertainty is the absence of head-to-head randomized clinical trials. Modellers have used various techniques to compensate, including utilizing extension trials. The use of large observational cohorts in recent studies aids in identifying population-based, 'real-world' treatment effects. Major drivers of results include the time horizon modelled and DMT acquisition costs. Model endpoints must target either policy makers (using cost-utility analysis) or clinicians (conducting cost-effectiveness analyses). Lastly, the cost effectiveness of DMTs outside North America and Europe is currently unknown, with the lack of country-specific data as the major limiting factor. We suggest that limited data should not preclude analyses, as models may be built and updated in the future as data become available. Disclosure of modelling methods and assumptions could improve the transferability and applicability of models designed to reflect different healthcare systems.

Decision making by NICE: examining the influences of evidence, process and context

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) provides guidance to the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales on funding and use of new technologies. This study examined the impact of evidence, process and context factors on NICE decisions in 2004–2009. A data set of NICE decisions pertaining to pharmaceutical technologies was created, including 32 variables extracted from published information. A three-category outcome variable was used, defined as the decision to ‘recommend’, ‘restrict’ or ‘not recommend’ a technology. With multinomial logistic regression, the relative contribution of explanatory variables on NICE decisions was assessed. A total of 65 technology appraisals (118 technologies) were analysed. Of the technologies, 27% were recommended, 58% were restricted and 14% were not recommended by NICE for NHS funding. The multinomial model showed significant associations (p ⩽ 0.10) between NICE outcome and four variables: (i) demonstration of statistical superiority of the primary endpoint in clinical trials by the appraised technology; (ii) the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER); (iii) the number of pharmaceuticals appraised within the same appraisal; and (iv) the appraisal year. Results confirm the value of a comprehensive and multivariate approach to understanding NICE decision making. New factors affecting NICE decision making were identified, including the effect of clinical superiority, and the effect of process and socio-economic factors.

Transparency vs. closed-door policy: do process characteristics have an impact on the outcomes of coverage decisions? A statistical analysis

The aim of this study was to analyze influences of process- and technology-related characteristics on the outcomes of coverage decisions. Using survey data on 77 decisions from 13 countries, we examined whether outcomes differ by 14 variables that describe components of decision-making processes and the technology. We analyzed the likelihood of committees covering a technology, i.e. positive (including partial coverage) vs. negative coverage decisions. We performed non-parametric univariate tests and binomial logistic regression with a stepwise variable selection procedure. We identified a negative association between a positive decision and whether the technology is a prescribed medicine (p=0.0097). Other significant influences on a positive decision outcome included one disease area (p=0.0311) and whether a technology was judged to be (cost-)effective (p<0.0001). The first estimation of the logistic regression yielded a quasi-complete separation for technologies that were clearly judged (cost-)effective. In uncertain decisions, a higher number of stakeholders involved in voting (odds ratio=2.52; p=0.03) increased the likelihood of a positive outcome. The results suggest that decisions followed the lines of evidence-based decision-making. Despite claims for transparent and participative decision-making, the phase of evidence generation seemed most critical as decision-makers usually adopted the assessment recommendations. We identified little impact of process configurations.

A systematic review of coverage decision-making on health technologies-evidence from the real world

OBJECTIVE

Quantitative analysis of real-world coverage decision-making offers insights into the revealed preferences of appraisal committees. Aim of this review was to structure empirical evidence of coverage decisions made in practice based on the components 'methods and evidence', 'criteria and standards', 'decision outcome' and 'processes'.

METHODS

Several electronic databases, key journals and decision committees' websites were searched for publications between 1993 and June 2011. Inclusion criteria were the analysis of past decisions and application of quantitative methods. Each study was categorized by the scope of decision-making and the components covered by the variables used in quantitative analysis.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were identified. Many focused on pharmaceuticals, the UK NICE or the Australian PBAC. The components were covered comprehensively, but heterogeneously. Seventy-two variables were identified of which the following were more prevalent: specifications of the decision outcome; the indications considered for appraisal, identification of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, appropriateness of evaluation methods, type of economic or clinical evidence used for assessment, and the decision date.

CONCLUSIONS

Research was dominated by analysis of decision outcomes and appraisal criteria. Although common approaches were identified, the complexity of coverage decision-making - reflected by the heterogeneity of identified variables - will continue to challenge empirical research.