Potential future increase in extreme one-hour precipitation events over Europe due to climate change

Climate uncertainty and vulnerability of urban flooding associated with regional risk using multi-criteria analysis in Mumbai, India

The study made a comprehensive effort to examine climatic uncertainties at both yearly and monthly scales, along with mapping flood risks based on different land use categories. Recent studies have progressively been engrossed in demonstrating regional climate variations and associated flood probability to maintain the geo-ecological balance at micro to macro-regions. To carry out this investigation, various historical remote sensing record, reanalyzed and in-situ data sets were acquired with a high level of spatial precision using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) web-based remote sensing platform. Non-parametric techniques and multi-layer integration methods were then employed to illustrate the fluctuations in climate factors alongside creating maps indicating the susceptibility to floods. The study reveals an increased pattern in LST (Land Surface Temperature) (0.03 °C/year), albeit marginal declined in southern coastal regions (-0.15 °C/year) along with uneven rainfall patterns (1.42 mm/year). Moreover, long-term LULC change estimation divulges increased trends of urbanization (16.4 km2/year) together with vegetation growth (8.7 km2/year) from 2002 to 2022. Furthermore, this inquiry involves numerous environmental factors that influence the situation (elevation data, topographic wetness index, drainage density, proximity to water bodies, slope, and soil properties) as well as socio-economic attributes (population) to assess flood risk areas through the utilization of Analytical Hierarchy Process and overlay methods with assigned weights. The outcomes reveal nearly 55 percent of urban land is susceptible to flood in 2022, which were 45 and 37 percent in 2012 and 2002 separately. Additionally, 106 km2 of urban area is highly susceptible to inundation, whereas vegetation also occupies a significant proportion (52 km2). This thorough exploration offers a significant chance to formulate flood management and mitigation strategies tailored to specific regions during the era of climate change.

Probabilistic assessment of failure of infiltration structures under model and parametric uncertainty

We focus on the quantification of the probability of failure (PF) of an infiltration structure, of the kind that is typically employed for the implementation of low impact development strategies in urban settings. Our approach embeds various sources of uncertainty. These include (a) the mathematical models rendering key hydrological traits of the system and the ensuing model parametrization as well as (b) design variables related to the drainage structure. As such, we leverage on a rigorous multi-model Global Sensitivity Analysis framework. We consider a collection of commonly used alternative models to represent our knowledge about the conceptualization of the system functioning. Each model is characterized by a set of uncertain parameters. As an original aspect, the sensitivity metrics we consider are related to a single- and a multi-model context. The former provides information about the relative importance that model parameters conditional to the choice of a given model can have on PF. The latter yields the importance that the selection of a given model has on PF and enables one to consider at the same time all of the alternative models analyzed. We demonstrate our approach through an exemplary application focused on the preliminary design phase of infiltration structures serving a region in the northern part of Italy. Results stemming from a multi-model context suggest that the contribution arising from the adoption of a given model is key to the quantification of the degree of importance associated with each uncertain parameter.

Adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change: A review

The present work reviews the main challenges regarding adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change by comparing 32 case studies from 29 articles, published between 2003 and 2020. The aim is to: (i) identify the state-of-the-art scientific approaches of adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change; (ii) assess whether or not these approaches incorporated monetization of the adaptation practices and the associated costs/benefits; and (iii) define a novel approach (Blueprint) for the future development and assessment of urban drainage network adaptation to climate change and other drivers. First, the motivation is provided that makes urban drainage adaptation a globally relevant issue. Second, the main impacts of climate change on precipitation, flooding and urban drainage systems are discussed. Then, current practices are described. Finally, a blueprint for an integrated urban adaptation framework to climate change and other drivers is proposed. Our research indicated that future quantity and quality of urban runoff is not widely addressed in the scientific literature. The Storm Water Management Model is the most widely used software in modeling adaptation options. Solutions such as plans of maintenance and rehabilitation, public awareness, flood forecasting and warning, mobility measures and insurance measures are not widely reflected in the literature. Uncertainties of climate projections and bias correction methods are still significant, and uncertainties of socio-economic scenarios, hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, and adaptation options are not fully addressed. Finally, environmental cost and benefits associated with the ecosystem services provided by the adaptation options are not fully addressed.

Beaver dams attenuate flow: A multi-site study

Beavers can profoundly alter riparian environments, most conspicuously by creating dams and wetlands. Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) populations are increasing and it has been suggested they could play a role in the provision of multiple ecosystem services, including natural flood management. Research at different scales, in contrasting ecosystems is required to establish to what extent beavers can impact on flood regimes. Therefore, this study determines whether flow regimes and flow responses to storm events were altered following the building of beaver dams and whether a flow attenuation effect could be significantly attributed to beaver activity. Four sites were monitored where beavers have been reintroduced in England. Continuous monitoring of hydrology, before and after beaver impacts, was undertaken on streams where beavers built sequences of dams. Stream orders ranged from 2nd to 4th, in both agricultural and forest-dominated catchments. Analysis of >1000 storm events, across four sites showed an overall trend of reduced total stormflow, increased peak rainfall to peak flow lag times and reduced peak flows, all suggesting flow attenuation, following beaver impacts. Additionally, reduced high flow to low flow ratios indicated that flow regimes were overall becoming less "flashy" following beaver reintroduction. Statistical analysis, showed the effect of beaver to be statistically significant in reducing peak flows with estimated overall reductions in peak flows from -0.359 to -0.065 m3 s-1 across sites. Analysis showed spatial and temporal variability in the hydrological response to beaver between sites, depending on the level of impact and seasonality. Critically, the effect of beavers in reducing peak flows persists for the largest storms monitored, showing that even in wet conditions, beaver dams can attenuate average flood flows by up to ca. 60%. This research indicates that beavers could play a role in delivering natural flood management.

Robustness analysis of storm water quality modelling with LID infrastructures from natural event-based field monitoring

Sponge city construction (SCC) in China, as a new concept and a practical application of low-impact development (LID), is gaining wide popularity. Modelling tools are widely used to evaluate the ecological benefits of SCC in stormwater pollution mitigation. However, the understanding of the robustness of water quality modelling with different LID design options is still limited due to the paucity of water quality data as well as the high cost of water quality data collection and model calibration. This study develops a new concept of 'robustness' measured by model calibration performances. It combines an automatic calibration technique with intensive field monitoring data to perform the robustness analysis of storm water quality modelling using the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model). One of the national pilot areas of SCC, Fenghuang Cheng, in Shenzhen, China, is selected as the study area. Five water quality variables (COD, NH3-N, TN, TP, and SS) and 13 types of LID/non-LID infrastructures are simulated using 37 rainfall events. The results show that the model performance is satisfactory for different water quality variables and LID types. Water quality modelling of greenbelts and rain gardens has the best performance, while the models of barrels and green roofs are not as robust as those of the other LID types. In urban runoff, three water quality parameters, namely, SS, TN and COD, are better captured by the SWMM models than NH₃-N and TP. The modelling performance tends to be better under heavy rain and significant pollutant concentrations, denoting a potentially more stable and reliable design of infrastructures. This study helps to improve the current understanding of the feasibility and robustness of using the SWMM model in sponge city design.

Model Hyetographs of Short-Term Rainfall for Wrocław in the Perspective of 2050

One of the most important problems while modeling stormwater drainage systems is the choice of rainfall scenario, which will take into account the real rainfall distribution over time. This problem is particularly significant due to the climate change observed in recent decades, manifested, among others, in the increase in the precipitation intensities or changes in their structure. Taking into account these forecasts is essential to safely design sewer systems and their proper operation. The work aims to verify the Euler type II standard rainfall used so far to model sewage systems in Poland and to develop the forecasted form of this pattern in the perspective of 2050. Precipitation data from measurement stations in Wrocław were used as research material. The prediction model of maximum rainfall amounts allowed to determine the forecasted increase in intensities of short-term rainfall (for the occurrence frequencies recommended by Standard EN 752:2017 for the dimensioning and modeling of sewage systems). On this basis, model hyetographs forecasted for 2050 were prepared for Wrocław. Their choice—as a future rainfall load in hydrodynamic modeling—will allow one to meet the requirements for the frequency of flooding occurrence from sewer systems and their safe operation over several decades.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty when calculating the limiting flux in secondary settling tanks using iCFD

Solids-flux theory (SFT) and state-point analysis (SPA) are used for the design, operation and control of secondary settling tanks (SSTs). The objectives of this study were to assess uncertainties, propagating from flow and solids loading boundary conditions as well as compression settling behaviour to the calculation of the limiting flux (J_L) and the limiting solids concentration (X_L). The interpreted computational fluid dynamics (iCFD) simulation model was used to predict one-dimensional local concentrations and limiting solids fluxes as a function of loading and design boundary conditions. A two-level fractional factorial design of experiments was used to infer the relative significance of factors unaccounted for in conventional SPA. To move away from using semi-arbitrary safety factors, a systematic approach was proposed to calculate the maximum SST capacity by employing a factor of 23% and a regression meta-model to correct values of J_L and X_L, respectively - critical for abating hydraulic effects under wet-weather flow conditions.

Socio-Economic Potential Impacts Due to Urban Pluvial Floods in Badalona (Spain) in a Context of Climate Change

Pluvial flooding in Badalona (Spain) occurs during high rainfall intensity events, which in the future could be more frequent according to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this context, the present study aims at quantifying the potential impacts of climate change for the city of Badalona. A comprehensive pluvial flood multi risk assessment has been carried out for the entire municipality. The assessment has a twofold target: People safety, based on both pedestrians’ and vehicles’ stability, and impacts on the economic sector in terms of direct damages on properties and vehicles, and indirect damages due to businesses interruption. Risks and damages have also been assessed for the projected future rainfall conditions which enabled the comparison with the current ones, thereby estimating their potential increment. Moreover, the obtained results should be the first step to assess the efficiency of adaptation measures. The novelty of this paper is the integration of a detailed 1D/2D urban drainage model with multiple risk criteria. Although, the proposed methodology was tested for the case study of Badalona (Spain), it can be considered generally applicable to other urban areas affected by pluvial flooding.

Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Extreme Precipitation in the Middle Adriatic Side, Marche Region (Central Italy)

Extreme precipitation trends and events are fundamental for the definition of the region’s climate and allow the subsequent analysis of the risk for the territory and the possible countermeasures. This study takes into account the Marche Region (Central Italy) with 128 rain gauges from 1921 to 2017. Initially, in order to obtain a rainfall overview, the dominant trend of the period 1921–2017 was evaluated. Initially, in order to obtain a rainfall overview, the dominant trend of the period 1921–2017 was evaluated. In addition, to obtain a comparable analysis, the average precipitations grouped in climatological standard normals were analyzed. Finally, the main purpose of the research was achieved by analyzing extreme events in the middle Adriatic side. In addition, forecasts of extreme precipitation events, with a return period of 100 years, were made using the theory of “generalized extreme value” (GEV). The innovation of this research is represented by the use of geostatistics to spatialize the variables investigated, through a clear and immediate graphic representation performed through GIS software. This study is a necessary starting point for the study of climate dynamics in the region, and it is also a useful tool for land use planning.

Comparison of urbanization and climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation

Understanding the drivers behind urban floods is critical for reducing its devastating impacts to human and society. This study investigates the impacts of recent urban development on hydrological runoff and urban flood volumes in a major city located in northern China, and compares the urbanization impacts with the effects induced by climate change under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We then quantify the role of urban drainage system in mitigating flood volumes to inform future adaptation strategies. A geo-spatial database on landuse types, surface imperviousness and drainage systems is developed and used as inputs into the SWMM urban drainage model to estimate the flood volumes and related risks under various urbanization and climate change scenarios. It is found that urbanization has led to an increase in annual surface runoff by 208 to 413%, but the changes in urban flood volumes can vary greatly depending on performance of drainage system along the development. Specifically, changes caused by urbanization in expected annual flood volumes are within a range of 194 to 942%, which are much higher than the effects induced by climate change under the RCP 2.6 scenario (64 to 200%). Through comparing the impacts of urbanization and climate change on urban runoff and flood volumes, this study highlights the importance for re-assessment of current and future urban drainage in coping with the changing urban floods induced by local and large-scale changes.

Risk analysis of urban stormwater infrastructure systems using fuzzy spatial multi-criteria decision making

Design and performance of stormwater infrastructure systems in urban areas have direct implications in social, environmental and public health problems and are of utmost importance to urban authorities and managers. Risk analysis in urban stormwater systems has become a must because of the extensive consequences of flooding in urban areas and limited funding for the rehabilitation and renovation of stormwater systems. Complexity, multidimensionality, and inherent uncertainties of the urban stormwater systems require the risk analysis approach to be comprehensive and able to address different uncertainties and spatial aspects of the problem. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive framework for risk analysis in urban stormwater systems. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), geographic information systems (GIS), and fuzzy sets theory are used to consider the diverse risk-affecting criteria, facilitate the analysis of spatial data and information and formulate the ambiguity and uncertainty of problem, respectively. The presented framework uses a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) for determining the weights of risk-affecting criteria (i.e. Hydrological and Hydraulic, Traffic, Social, Economic, Environmental, Structural, and Green space) in the presence of multiple decision makers. The Autodesk Storm and Sanitary Analysis model is used for the Hydrological and Hydraulic simulations. FSAW and FTOPSIS methods are used to provide the final product of the framework, i.e., a risk map that presents a risk level for each channel in the network. The framework is applied to District 11 of the capital city of Iran, Tehran as a real case study. The resulted risk maps indicate a high or very high flooding risk for 17.07 to 41.95 km of the stormwater channels in the study area, covering about 10.5 to 26% of the total length of the channels. The presented framework was found to be a suitable risk analysis tool in urban stormwater systems.

Effect of climate change on stormwater runoff characteristics and treatment efficiencies of stormwater retention ponds: a case study from Denmark using TSS and Cu as indicator pollutants

This study investigated the potential effect of climate changes on stormwater pollution runoff characteristics and the treatment efficiency of a stormwater retention pond in a 95 ha catchment in Denmark. An integrated dynamic stormwater runoff quality and treatment model was used to simulate two scenarios: one representing the current climate and another representing a future climate scenario with increased intensity of extreme rainfall events and longer dry weather periods. 100-year long high-resolution rainfall time series downscaled from regional climate model projections were used as input. The collected data showed that total suspended solids (TSS) and total copper (Cu) concentrations in stormwater runoff were related to flow, rainfall intensity and antecedent dry period. Extreme peak intensities resulted in high particulate concentrations and high loads but did not affect dissolved Cu concentrations. The future climate simulations showed an increased frequency of higher flows and increased total concentrations discharged from the catchment. The effect on the outlet from the pond was an increase in the total concentrations (TSS and Cu), whereas no major effect was observed on dissolved Cu concentrations. Similar results are expected for other particle bound pollutants including metals and slowly biodegradable organic substances such as PAH. Acute toxicity impacts to downstream surface waters seem to be only slightly affected. A minor increase in yearly loads of sediments and particle-bound pollutants is expected, mainly caused by large events disrupting the settling process. This may be important to consider for the many stormwater retention ponds existing in Denmark and across the world.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate pluvial floods risk under changing climate: The case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy)

Global climate change is likely to pose increasing threats in nearly all sectors and across all sub-regions worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Particularly, extreme weather events (e.g. heavy precipitations), together with changing exposure and vulnerability patterns, are expected to increase the damaging effect of storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding. Developing climate and adaptation services for local planners and decision makers is becoming essential to transfer and communicate sound scientific knowledge about climate related risks and foster the development of national, regional and local adaptation strategies. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on pluvial flood risk and advice adaptation planning, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice. Based on the integrated analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, RRA allows identifying and prioritizing targets and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood risk due to heavy precipitation events in the future scenario 2041-2050. From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the requests, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. Results of the analysis showed that all targets (i.e. residential, commercial-industrial areas and infrastructures) are vulnerable to pluvial floods due to the high impermeability and low slope of the topography. The spatial pattern of risk mostly reflects the distribution of the hazard and the districts with the higher percentage of receptors' surface in the higher risk classes (i.e. very high, high and medium) are Lido-Pellestrina and Marghera. The paper discusses how risk-based maps and statistics integrate scientific and local knowledge with the final aim to mainstream climate adaptation in the development of risk mitigation and urban plans.

Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems

Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness.

iCFD: Interpreted Computational Fluid Dynamics - Degeneration of CFD to one-dimensional advection-dispersion models using statistical experimental design - The secondary clarifier

The present study aims at using statistically designed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations as numerical experiments for the identification of one-dimensional (1-D) advection-dispersion models - computationally light tools, used e.g., as sub-models in systems analysis. The objective is to develop a new 1-D framework, referred to as interpreted CFD (iCFD) models, in which statistical meta-models are used to calculate the pseudo-dispersion coefficient (D) as a function of design and flow boundary conditions. The method - presented in a straightforward and transparent way - is illustrated using the example of a circular secondary settling tank (SST). First, the significant design and flow factors are screened out by applying the statistical method of two-level fractional factorial design of experiments. Second, based on the number of significant factors identified through the factor screening study and system understanding, 50 different sets of design and flow conditions are selected using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The boundary condition sets are imposed on a 2-D axi-symmetrical CFD simulation model of the SST. In the framework, to degenerate the 2-D model structure, CFD model outputs are approximated by the 1-D model through the calibration of three different model structures for D. Correlation equations for the D parameter then are identified as a function of the selected design and flow boundary conditions (meta-models), and their accuracy is evaluated against D values estimated in each numerical experiment. The evaluation and validation of the iCFD model structure is carried out using scenario simulation results obtained with parameters sampled from the corners of the LHS experimental region. For the studied SST, additional iCFD model development was carried out in terms of (i) assessing different density current sub-models; (ii) implementation of a combined flocculation, hindered, transient and compression settling velocity function; and (iii) assessment of modelling the onset of transient and compression settling. Furthermore, the optimal level of model discretization both in 2-D and 1-D was undertaken. Results suggest that the iCFD model developed for the SST through the proposed methodology is able to predict solid distribution with high accuracy - taking a reasonable computational effort - when compared to multi-dimensional numerical experiments, under a wide range of flow and design conditions. iCFD tools could play a crucial role in reliably predicting systems' performance under normal and shock events.

A new settling velocity model to describe secondary sedimentation

Secondary settling tanks (SSTs) are the most hydraulically sensitive unit operations in biological wastewater treatment plants. The maximum permissible inflow to the plant depends on the efficiency of SSTs in separating and thickening the activated sludge. The flow conditions and solids distribution in SSTs can be predicted using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. Despite extensive studies on the compression settling behaviour of activated sludge and the development of advanced settling velocity models for use in SST simulations, these models are not often used, due to the challenges associated with their calibration. In this study, we developed a new settling velocity model, including hindered, transient and compression settling, and showed that it can be calibrated to data from a simple, novel settling column experimental set-up using the Bayesian optimization method DREAM(ZS). In addition, correlations between the Herschel-Bulkley rheological model parameters and sludge concentration were identified with data from batch rheological experiments. A 2-D axisymmetric CFD model of a circular SST containing the new settling velocity and rheological model was validated with full-scale measurements. Finally, it was shown that the representation of compression settling in the CFD model can significantly influence the prediction of sludge distribution in the SSTs under dry- and wet-weather flow conditions.

Adaption to extreme rainfall with open urban drainage system: an integrated hydrological cost-benefit analysis

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Developing the evidence base for mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change

In a context of high uncertainty about hydro-climatic variables, the development of updated methods for climate impact and adaptation assessment is as important, if not more important than the provision of improved climate change data. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid method to facilitate mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change: i.e., the Mainstreaming method. The Mainstreaming method starts with an analysis of adaptation tipping points (ATPs), which is effect-based. These are points of reference where the magnitude of climate change is such that acceptable technical, environmental, societal or economic standards may be compromised. It extends the ATP analysis to include aspects from a bottom-up approach. The extension concerns the analysis of adaptation opportunities in the stormwater system. The results from both analyses are then used in combination to identify and exploit Adaptation Mainstreaming Moments (AMMs). Use of this method will enhance the understanding of the adaptive potential of stormwater systems. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to the management of flood risk for an urban stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). The main finding of this case study is that the application of the Mainstreaming method helps to increase the no-/low-regret character of adaptation for several reasons: it focuses the attention on the most urgent effects of climate change; it is expected to lead to potential cost reductions, since adaptation options can be integrated into infrastructure and building design at an early stage instead of being applied separately; it will lead to the development of area-specific responses, which could not have been developed on a higher scale level; it makes it possible to take account of local values and sensibilities, which contributes to increased public and political support for the adaptive strategies.

An expert assessment on climate change and health - with a European focus on lungs and allergies

BACKGROUND

For almost 20 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been assessing the potential health risks associated with climate change; with increasingly convincing evidence that climate change presents existing impacts on human health. In industrialized countries climate change may further affect public health and in particular respiratory health, through existing health stressors, including, anticipated increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves; increased frequency of cardiopulmonary events due to higher concentrations of air pollutants; and altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectors. Additionally exposure to moulds and contaminants from water damaged buildings may increase.

METHODS

We undertook an expert elicitation amongst European researchers engaged in environmental medicine or respiratory health. All experts were actively publishing researchers on lung disease and air pollution, climate and health or a closely related research. We conducted an online questionnaire on proposed causal diagrams and determined levels of confidence that climate change will have an impact on a series of stressors. In a workshop following the online questionnaire, half of the experts further discussed the results and reasons for differences in assessments of the state of knowledge on exposures and health effects.

RESULTS

Out of 16 experts, 100% expressed high to very high confidence that climate change would increase the frequency of heat waves. At least half expressed high or very high confidence that climate change would increase levels of pollen (50%), particulate matter (PM2.5) (55%), and ozone (70%). While clarity is needed around the impacts of increased exposures to health impacts of some stressors, including ozone and particulate matter levels, it was noted that definitive knowledge is not a prerequisite for policy action. Information to the public, preventive measures, monitoring and warning systems were among the most commonly mentioned preventative actions.

CONCLUSIONS

This group of experts identifies clear health risks associated with climate change, and express opinions about these risks even while they do not necessarily regard themselves as covering all areas of expertise. Since some changes in exposure have already been observed, the consensus is that there is already a scientific basis for preventative action, and that the associated adaptation and mitigation policies should also be evidence based.