Impact of an extreme dry and hot summer on water supply security in an alpine region

National water shortage for low to high environmental flow protection

Global freshwater biodiversity has been decreasing rapidly, requiring the restoration and maintenance of environmental flows (EFs) in streams and rivers. EFs provide many ecosystem services that benefit humans. Reserving such EFs for aquatic ecosystems, implies less renewable water availability for direct human water use such as agriculture, industry, cities and energy. Here we show that, depending on the level of EF protection, global annual renewable water availability for humans decreases between 41 and 80% compared to when not reserving EFs. With low EF protection, currently 53 countries experience different levels of water shortage, which increases to 101 countries for high EF protection. Countries will carefully have to balance the amount of water allocated to humans and the environment.

Ecosystem restoration programs challenges under climate and land use change

Ecological restoration programs have significantly contributed to the improvement of ecosystem services in the past two decades. However, due to climate change and rapid land use change, planning and management of ecosystem services restoration programs are still challenging, particularly how to identify and quantify the specific contribution of natural and human drivers of ecosystem services dynamics, how to assess and simulate the integrated impacts of climate-land use change interactions on changes in ecosystem services, insufficient simulation of mid- and long-term impacts of different ecological restoration programs, and lack of identification of ecological restoration thresholds. To overcome the challenges, we propose a new framework for restoring ecosystem services programs as potential solutions to the challenges. The framework includes attribution analysis of changes in ecosystem services, assessment and projections of ecosystem services dynamics under the integrated impacts of climate-land use change interactions, simulation of mid- and long-term effects of ecological programs and identification of ecological restoration threshold, which forms the logic chain of the framework, i.e. theory foundation-techniques support-application cases-policy implications. We finally recommend four related research directions and steps forward to overcome the challenges, including (1) Step 1: establish attribution analysis method of ecosystem services dynamics based on ecological thermodynamics and partial differential equation; (2) Step 2: Assess and simulate the impacts of coupled climate-land use change interactions on ecosystem services dynamics; (3) Step 3: Simulate the mid- and long-term impacts of different ecological restoration programs; and (4) Step 4: Identify ecological restoration thresholds. This study could provide insights for improving management of ecosystem services restoration programs in the context of rapid land use change and continuous climate change.

Physical water scarcity metrics for monitoring progress towards SDG target 6.4: An evaluation of indicator 6.4.2 "Level of water stress"

Target 6.4 of the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) deals with the reduction of water scarcity. To monitor progress towards this target, two indicators are used: Indicator 6.4.1 measuring water use efficiency and 6.4.2 measuring the level of water stress (WS). This paper aims to identify whether the currently proposed indicator 6.4.2 considers the different elements that need to be accounted for in a WS indicator. WS indicators compare water use with water availability. We identify seven essential elements: 1) both gross and net water abstraction (or withdrawal) provide important information to understand WS; 2) WS indicators need to incorporate environmental flow requirements (EFR); 3) temporal and 4) spatial disaggregation is required in a WS assessment; 5) both renewable surface water and groundwater resources, including their interaction, need to be accounted for as renewable water availability; 6) alternative available water resources need to be accounted for as well, like fossil groundwater and desalinated water; 7) WS indicators need to account for water storage in reservoirs, water recycling and managed aquifer recharge. Indicator 6.4.2 considers many of these elements, but there is need for improvement. It is recommended that WS is measured based on net abstraction as well, in addition to currently only measuring WS based on gross abstraction. It does incorporate EFR. Temporal and spatial disaggregation is indeed defined as a goal in more advanced monitoring levels, in which it is also called for a differentiation between surface and groundwater resources. However, regarding element 6 and 7 there are some shortcomings for which we provide recommendations. In addition, indicator 6.4.2 is only one indicator, which monitors blue WS, but does not give information on green or green-blue water scarcity or on water quality. Within the SDG indicator framework, some of these topics are covered with other indicators.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

Leaf and ecosystem response to soil water availability in mountain grasslands

Climate change is expected to affect the Alps by increasing the frequency and intensity of summer drought events with negative impacts on ecosystem water resources. The response of CO₂ and H₂O exchange of a mountain grassland to natural fluctuations of soil water content was evaluated during 2001-2009. In addition, the physiological performance of individual mountain forb and graminoid plant species under progressive soil water shortage was explored in a laboratory drought experiment. During the 9-year study period the natural occurrence of moderately to extremely dry periods did not lead to substantial reductions in net ecosystem CO₂ exchange and evapotranspiration. Laboratory drought experiments confirmed that all the surveyed grassland plant species were insensitive to progressive soil drying until very low soil water contents (<0.01 m³ m^-3) were reached after several days of drought. In field conditions, such a low threshold was never reached. Re-watering after a short-term drought event (5±1 days) resulted in a fast and complete recovery of the leaf CO₂ and H₂O gas exchange of the investigated plant species. We conclude that the present-day frequency and intensity of dry periods does not substantially affect the functioning of the investigated grassland ecosystem. During dry periods the observed "water spending" strategy employed by the investigated mountain grassland species is expected to provide a cooling feedback on climate warming, but may have negative consequences for down-stream water users.