Pandemic response management framework based on efficiency of COVID-19 control and treatment

The effectiveness of COVID deaths to COVID policies: A robust conditional approach

This paper examines the effectiveness of four major COVID-19 social distancing policies, (i) shelter-in-place orders (SIPO), (ii) non-essential business closures, (iii) mandatory quarantine for travelers, and (iv) bans on large gatherings, on both COVID cases and COVID deaths. Results indicate that states are highly ineffective in producing the fraction of the population that does not have COVID-19 or the fraction of the population that does not die from COVID-19. We find that having any form of social distancing policies increases the fraction of the population not considered a positive COVID-19 case by 23.5 percentage points. Results also show that having any of the four major social distancing policies reduces the fraction of the population who has died of COVID-19 by 1.3 percentage points between March 1, 2020 and September 1, 2020; during the first 100 days, effectiveness would improve by 2.1 percentage points. Evidence suggests that there is no effective uniform national COVID-19 social distancing policy. Furthermore, conditional efficiency regressions after 100 days suggest that behavioral noncompliance and premature expiration of social distancing policies both negatively impact effectiveness. Partial regression plots suggest that bans on large gatherings and the closure of non-essential businesses were the two most impactful COVID-19 social distancing policies.

Efficiency of Malaysian states in managing the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 and 2021

INTRODUCTION

Many developing countries have drastically imbalanced health systems in different regions. The COVID-19 outbreak posed a further challenge as hospital structures, equipped with doctors, critical care units and respirators, were not available to a sufficient extent in all regions.

OBJECTIVE

This study is a descriptive study on the efficiency of Malaysian states in facing the COVID-19 outbreak.

METHODOLOGY

The efficiency of all Malaysian states was measured using Data Envelopment Analysis in which each state's Score of COVID Index (SCI) was quantified. The SCI of these states were then further compared between the year 2020 and 2021. A greater disparity would indicate a decline in the performance of a state over time, where nearly all the states in Malaysia experienced an increase in the score of COVID Index (SCI).

RESULT

This study found that the central region was the most affected, since all the three states in the region (Selangor, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, and Federal Territory of Putrajaya) showed a situation of inadequacy (SCI: >0.75) due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

CONCLUSION

The ranking of Malaysia's states according to their vulnerability to an outbreak of COVID-19 is vitally significant for the purposes of assisting the government and policymakers in planning their responses to the outbreak and ensuring that resources are distributed appropriately.

At the End of Every Pandemic: Beginning a Pandemic Playbook to Respond to the Next

The world was unprepared for COVID-19. Pandemics can unfold quickly; faster than governments can respond, unless they have maintained a realistic pandemic playbook. As the world ahead becomes ever-more complex, such playbook becomes ever-more necessary. This article not only describes the importance of a pandemic playbook but also a system to maintain it. A pandemic playbook both (1) specifies what is needed to respond to a pandemic and (2) provides a lens through which to identify measures that will keep people safe and society secure. The plays in the book are thought-though policies and strategies and corresponding implementation plans. The process of developing a playbook is as important as the product. Any playbook must be fit for purpose in the context of the times in which it is to be used. Above all, it must contain realistic policies and plans that can actually be implemented and can realize their intended effects. Achieving this goal requires (1) repeatedly exercising the playbook so that people know what to do when they need to do it and (2) evaluating results and updating the playbook to keep it relevant and current. Necessarily, to bring ideas alive, this article illustrates them with reference to COVID-19 and earlier pandemics, but it is not intended as a playbook for responding to the next pandemic; nor a postmortem on responses to COVID-19. Instead, it describes actions to take now to be ready when the next global pandemic strikes, so that policy decision-makers will not be lamenting “we should have done that.”

The efficiency of COVID cases to COVID policies: a robust conditional approach

This paper examines the efficiency of four major COVID-19 social distancing policies: (i) shelter-in-place orders (SIPO), (ii) non-essential business closures, (iii) mandatory quarantine for travelers, and (iv) bans on large gatherings. Results suggest that the average US state is highly inefficient in producing the fraction of the population that does not have COVID-19 without social distancing policies put in place. We find that having any of the four major social distancing policies increases conditional efficiency by 9.7 (9.5) percentage points in the first 100 days (full sample). This corresponds to 57 (172) fewer total COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in the first 100 days (full sample). We also find that population density accounts for a majority of unconditional state inefficiency. Evidence suggests considerable heterogeneity in conditional efficiency improvement, indicating that no uniform national social distancing policy would have been more effective; more effective strategies would have been to target more densely populated areas. Conditional efficiency regressions suggest that bans on large gatherings were the most effective policies, with SIPOs and non-essential business closures having smaller impacts. States that implemented social distancing policies except mandatory quarantine for traveler policies were highly effective for the first 100 days, but had less effectiveness over the full sample. There is also preliminary evidence that premature revocations of social distancing policies reduced conditional efficiency, leading to COVID-19 case spikes.

COVID-19 and the efficiency of health systems in Europe

BACKGROUND

This study aims at analyzing the efficiency of the health systems of 31 European countries in treating COVID-19, for the period January 1, 2020 - January 1, 2021, by incorporating some factors from a multidimensional perspective.

METHODS

The methodology used in the research was Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), through which efficiency scores for health systems have been calculated. The research was performed considering three stages: the first wave (January 1-June 15), the relaxation period (June 15-October 1) and the second wave (October 1-December 31). In evaluating the determinants of the efficiency of health systems, six major fields of influence were taken into account: health care, health status, population, economic, cultural/societal and governmental issues, all covering 15 indicators. After measuring the efficiency, we used the Tobit type regression to establish the influencing elements on it.

RESULTS

The results for the public health systems of European states were determined for each country and period. We evaluated the efficiency of health systems in Europe against COVID-19, starting from health inputs (COVID-19 cases, physicians, nurses, hospital beds, health expenditure) and output (COVID-19 deaths). The obtained outputs show that, especially in the first phase of the pandemic, the inefficiency of the health systems was quite high, mainly in Western countries (Italy, Belgium, Spain, UK). In the relaxation phase and in the second wave, the Western states, severely affected at the beginning of the pandemic, began to take adequate measures and improve the efficiency of their sanitary systems. Instead, Eastern European countries were hit hard by the inefficiency of health systems (Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Romania). After Tobit regression, results of the study show that the influencing elements are different for the three stages: concerning the first wave, comobirdities, population age, and population density are important; for relaxation period a great influence have government effectiveness and power distance; with respect to second wave, the relevant factors are education and population density.

CONCLUSIONS

The results obtained could serve as starting points for health policymakers to perform comparative analyzes in terms of good practices in the health system and to develop national plans to better deal with health crises. At the same time, they can be used internationally to achieve a coherent and effective community response to the pandemic.

A longitudinal study of the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on students' health behavior, mental health and emotional well-being

BACKGROUND

COVID-related restrictions impacted the lives of students on and off campus during Academic Year 2020/2021.

METHODS

Our study collected data on student health behavior and habits as well as their mental and emotional health using anonymous surveys. We compared these data with data collected prior to COVID in the longitudinal part of our study (n = 721) and analyzed them for the cross-sectional part of the study (n = 506).

RESULTS

The longitudinal data show a significant difference for some student behaviors and habits, such as sleeping habits, physical activity, breakfast consumption, time spent online or playing video games, vaping, and marijuana use, during the COVID pandemic compared with pre-COVID data. Respondents also reported a significant increase in difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions, as well as being impacted by feelings of sadness or hopelessness. Yet, there was no increase in the proportion of respondents considering, planning or attempting suicide during COVID. The cross-sectional data illuminate the negative effect of the overall situation and the restrictions on students' mental and emotional well-being. Three-quarters of respondents reported having craved human interaction during the past six months, more than half felt that their mental/emotional health had been impacted by the lack of social events or the switch to virtual (online) teaching. Two-thirds or more of respondents also expressed that they felt less connected to their peers and less motivated in their studies than in previous semesters. Fifty percent or more of respondents selected anxious, stressed, overwhelmed, disconnected, tired, and fatigued as words that best described their emotional state during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of COVID-related restrictions on students' behaviors and habits as well as their mental and emotional health was less severe than one would have expected based on studies during the early stage of the pandemic. While some behaviors and habits changed during the COVID pandemic compared with the pre-COVID period, the changes were not substantial overall. Our study did not find an increase in the proportion of respondents considering, planning or attempting suicide during COVID, although the cross-sectional data from our survey make the negative effect of the overall situation and the restrictions on students' mental and emotional well-being evident. The impact of the pandemic will unquestionably be long-lasting and will necessitate further and future investigations.