Projecting the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes-Related End-Stage Kidney Disease Until 2040: A Comparison Between the Effects of Diabetes Prevention and the Effects of Diabetes Treatment

Dietary Patterns, Kidney Function, and Sarcopenia in Chronic Kidney Disease

Sarcopenia is a condition characterized by the loss of muscle mass and function. It is a risk factor for adverse clinical outcomes, including falls, disability, and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The progression of CKD leads to metabolic disturbances and pathophysiological changes. These alterations, such as metabolic acidosis, dysregulated muscle proteostasis, and excessive inflammation, contribute to accelerated muscle wasting, resulting in sarcopenia. Proper nutritional interventions are essential in the management of sarcopenia in patients with CKD. Appropriate dietary intake of protein and specific micronutrients, carefully considering the needs and restrictions of CKD, may help maintain muscle mass and function. Specific dietary patterns, such as an anti-inflammatory diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet, and a plant-based diet, may be beneficial for attenuating muscle wasting in CKD patients. The underlying mechanisms of how these dietary patterns affect sarcopenia are multifaceted, including inflammation, oxidative stress, and defects in muscle protein homeostasis. This review summarizes the current evidence on the relationship between dietary patterns and sarcopenia, as well as the underlying mechanisms of how dietary patterns modulate sarcopenia in CKD patients.

The incidence of cardiac surgery in adults with treated kidney failure in Australia: a retrospective cohort study

Objective Kidney failure increases people's risk of cardiovascular disease, sometimes requiring cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of cardiac surgery for adults with treated kidney failure in comparison with the general population in Australia. Methods We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study by linking data between the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry and the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons Cardiac Surgery Database, for 2010-2019. Age-sex-standardised surgery risk relative to the general population was estimated for adults receiving long-term dialysis and kidney transplant recipients, and subpopulations defined by procedure type, comorbidity, clinical status and dialysis-related factors. Results Among 1541 adults receiving treatment for kidney failure at the time of cardiac surgery in 2010-2019, the prevalence of comorbidity and risk factors was usually highest in those receiving dialysis, followed by transplant recipients and the general population (n =113,126). For all major cardiac surgical procedure types, the incidence of surgery for adults receiving dialysis and transplant recipients exceeded that for the general population (e.g. isolated coronary artery bypass grafting relative rates 15.3 [95% CI 13.7-17.0] and 2.0 [1.6-2.6] respectively). Relative incidence was especially high for the dialysis cohorts with insulin-treated diabetes and those with body mass index <25kg/m2 . Conclusions Adults with treated kidney failure had a higher risk of cardiac surgery than the general population in Australia in 2010-2019, especially when associated with diabetes. Data linkage between clinical quality registries enabled estimation of the extent of cardiac surgical burden.

The Broader Effects of Delayed Progression to End-Stage Kidney Disease: Delaying the Inevitable or a Meaningful Change?

A global rise in the prevalence of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has led to a considerable and increasing burden to health systems, patients, and society. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are proven to reduce incidence of cardio-renal outcomes, including onset of ESKD. Recent post hoc analyses of SGLT2 inhibitor trials extrapolate substantial delays in the average time to ESKD over a patient's lifetime. In this article, we explore the possible real-world effects of such a delay by considering the available evidence reporting outcomes following onset of ESKD. From the patient perspective, a delay in reaching ESKD could substantially improve health-related quality of life and result in additional life years without the need for kidney replacement therapies, a target relevant to all CKD subpopulations. Furthermore, should a patient initiate dialysis at an older age as a result of CKD progression, the time spent in receipt of dialysis, and therefore associated healthcare costs, may also be reduced. A delay in progression may also lead to changes in the management of ESKD, such as increased election of conservative care in preference to dialysis, particularly in elderly populations. For younger patients with CKD, those who reach ESKD while employed face considerable work impairment and productivity loss, as may families and care partners of working age. Therefore, a delay to the onset of ESKD will reduce the proportion of their working lives affected by productivity losses or unemployment due to medical reasons. In conclusion, optimised treatment of CKD may lead to a shift in treatment options, but proper and timely implementation is essential for the realisation of improved outcomes.

Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular and Kidney Prevention With Canagliflozin: Insights From the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE Trial

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the effects of canagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease (secondary and primary prevention).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a pooled participant-level analysis of the CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) Program and CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) trial. The CANVAS Program included participants with type 2 diabetes at elevated cardiovascular risk, whereas the CREDENCE trial included participants with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease. Hazard ratios (HRs) with interaction terms were obtained from Cox regression models to estimate relative risk reduction with canagliflozin versus placebo across the primary and secondary prevention groups. We analyzed 5616 (38.9%) and 8804 (61.1%) individuals in the primary and secondary prevention subgroups, respectively. Primary versus secondary prevention participants were on average younger (62.2 versus 63.8 years of age) and more often women (42% versus 31%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (HR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.76-0.94]) consistently across primary and secondary prevention subgroups (Pinteraction=0.86). Similarly, no treatment effect heterogeneity was observed with canagliflozin for hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular death, end-stage kidney disease, or all-cause mortality (all Pinteraction>0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Canagliflozin reduced cardiovascular and kidney outcomes with no statistical evidence of heterogeneity for the treatment effect across the primary and secondary prevention subgroups in the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE trial. Although studies on the optimal implementation of canagliflozin within these populations are warranted, these results reinforce canagliflozin's role in cardiorenal prevention and treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT01032629, NCT01989754, NCT02065791.

Estimating the population-level impacts of improved uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with chronic kidney disease: a cross-sectional observational study using routinely collected Australian primary care data

Background

Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of kidney failure and death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) but are underused. We evaluated the number of patients with CKD in Australia that would be eligible for treatment and estimated the number of cardiorenal and kidney failure events that could be averted with improved uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors.

Methods

This cross-sectional observational study leveraged nationally representative primary care data from 392 Australian general practices (MedicineInsight) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021. We identified patients that would have met inclusion criteria of key SGLT2 inhibitor trials and applied these data to age and sex-stratified estimates of CKD prevalence for the Australian population (using national census data), estimating the number of preventable events using trial event rates. Key outcomes included cardiorenal events (CKD progression, kidney failure, or death due to cardiovascular or kidney disease) and kidney failure.

Findings

In MedicineInsight, 44.2% of adults with CKD would have met CKD eligibility criteria for an SGLT2 inhibitor; baseline use was 4.1%. Applying these data to the Australian population, 230,246 patients with CKD would have been eligible for treatment with an SGLT2 inhibitor. Optimal implementation of SGLT2 inhibitors (75% uptake) could reduce cardiorenal and kidney failure events annually in Australia by 3644 (95% CI 3526-3764) and 1312 (95% CI 1242-1385), respectively.

Interpretation

Improved uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors for patients with CKD in Australia has the potential to prevent large numbers of patients experiencing CKD progression or dying due to cardiovascular or kidney disease. Identifying strategies to increase the uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors is critical to realising the population-level benefits of this drug class.

Funding

University of New South Wales Scientia Program and Boehringer IngelheimEli Lilly Alliance.

Trends in the Incidence of End-Stage Kidney Disease in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes in Australia, 2010-2019

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Trends in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among people with diabetes may inform clinical management and public health strategies. We estimated trends in the incidence of ESKD among people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Australia from 2010-2019 and evaluated their associated factors.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

71,700 people with type 1 and 1,112,690 people with type 2 diabetes registered on the Australian National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS). We estimated the incidence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) via linkage to the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) and the incidence of KRT or death from ESKD by linking the NDSS to the ANZDATA and the National Death Index for Australia.

PREDICTORS

Calendar time, sex, age, and duration of diabetes.

OUTCOME

Incidence of KRT and KRT or death from ESKD.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Incidence of ESKD, trends over time, and associations with factors related to these trends were modeled using Poisson regression stratified by diabetes type and sex.

RESULTS

The median duration of diabetes increased from 15.3 to 16.8 years in type 1 diabetes, and from 7.6 to 10.2 years in type 2 diabetes between 2010 and 2019. The incidence of KRT and KRT or death from ESKD did not significantly change over this time interval among people with type 1 diabetes. Conversely, the age-adjusted incidence of KRT and KRT or death from ESKD increased among males with type 2 diabetes (annual percent changes [APCs]: 2.52% [95% CI, 1.54 to -3.52] and 1.27% [95% CI, 0.53 2.03], respectively), with no significant change among females (0.67% [95% CI, -0.68 to 2.04] and 0.07% [95% CI, -0.81 to 0.96], respectively). After further adjustment for duration of diabetes, the incidence of ESKD fell between 2010 and 2019, with APCs of-0.09% (95% CI, -1.06 to 0.89) and-2.63% (95% CI, -3.96 to-1.27) for KRT and-0.97% (95% CI, -1.71 to-0.23) and-2.75% (95% CI, -3.62 to-1.87) for KRT or death from ESKD among males and females, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

NDSS only captures 80%-90% of people with diabetes; lack of clinical covariates limits understanding of trends.

CONCLUSIONS

While the age-adjusted incidence of ESKD increased for males and was stable for females over the last decade, after adjusting for increases in duration of diabetes the risk of developing ESKD has decreased for both males and females.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Previous studies showed an increase in new cases of kidney failure among people with type 2 diabetes, but more recent data have not been available. Here, we report trends in the rate of kidney failure for people with type 2 diabetes from 2010 to 2019 and showed that while more people with type 2 diabetes are developing kidney failure, accounting for the fact that they are also surviving longer (and therefore have a higher chance of kidney failure) the growth in this population is not caused by a higher risk of kidney failure. Nevertheless, more people are getting kidney failure than before, which will impact health care systems for years to come.

Projecting the incidence and costs of major cardiovascular and kidney complications of type 2 diabetes with widespread SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use: a cost-effectiveness analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Whether sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) are cost-effective based solely on their cardiovascular and kidney benefits is unknown. We projected the health and economic outcomes due to myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among people with type 2 diabetes, with and without CVD, under scenarios of widespread use of these drugs.

METHODS

We designed a microsimulation model using real-world data that captured CVD and ESKD morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2040. The populations and transition probabilities were derived by linking the Australian Diabetes Registry (1.1 million people with type 2 diabetes) to hospital admissions databases, the National Death Index and the ESKD Registry using data from 2010 to 2019. We modelled four interventions: increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the total population with type 2 diabetes, and increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the secondary prevention population (i.e. people with type 2 diabetes and prior CVD). All interventions were compared with current use of SGLT2is (20% of the total population) and GLP-1 RAs (5% of the total population). Outcomes of interest included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs (from the Australian public healthcare perspective) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We applied 5% annual discounting for health economic outcomes. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at AU$28,000 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

The numbers of QALYs gained from 2020 to 2040 with increased SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use in the total population (n=1.1 million in 2020; n=1.5 million in 2040) were 176,446 and 200,932, respectively, compared with current use. Net cost differences were AU$4.2 billion for SGLT2is and AU$20.2 billion for GLP-1 RAs, and the ICERs were AU$23,717 and AU$100,705 per QALY gained, respectively. In the secondary prevention population, the ICERs were AU$8878 for SGLT2is and AU$79,742 for GLP-1 RAs.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

At current prices, use of SGLT2is, but not GLP-1 RAs, would be cost-effective when considering only their cardiovascular and kidney disease benefits for people with type 2 diabetes.

Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Kidney Disease Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: Post Hoc Analyses From the DECLARE-TIMI 58 Trial

OBJECTIVE

In patients with moderate to severe albuminuric kidney disease, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors reduce the risk of kidney disease progression. These post hoc analyses assess the effects of dapagliflozin on kidney function decline in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), focusing on populations with low kidney risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In the Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trial, patients with T2D at high cardiovascular risk were randomly assigned to dapagliflozin versus placebo. Outcomes were analyzed by treatment arms, overall, and by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) risk categories. The prespecified kidney-specific composite outcome was a sustained decline ≥40% in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, end-stage kidney disease, and kidney-related death. Other outcomes included incidence of categorical eGFR decline of different thresholds and chronic (6 month to 4 year) or total (baseline to 4 year) eGFR slopes.

RESULTS

Most participants were in the low-moderate KDIGO risk categories (n = 15,201 [90.3%]). The hazard for the kidney-specific composite outcome was lower with dapagliflozin across all KDIGO risk categories (P-interaction = 0.97), including those at low risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54, 95% CI 0.38-0.77). Risks for categorical eGFR reductions (≥57% [in those with baseline eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2], ≥50%, ≥40%, and ≥30%) were lower with dapagliflozin (HRs 0.52, 0.57, 0.55, and 0.70, respectively; P < 0.05). Slopes of eGFR decline favored dapagliflozin across KDIGO risk categories, including the low KDIGO risk (between-arm differences of 0.87 [chronic] and 0.55 [total] mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Dapagliflozin mitigated kidney function decline in patients with T2D at high cardiovascular risk, including those with low KDIGO risk, suggesting a role of dapagliflozin in the early prevention of diabetic kidney disease.

Persistent disparities in diabetes medication receipt by socio-economic disadvantage in Australia

BACKGROUND

It is unknown how use of newer glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) has changed in Australia following the publication of clinical trials demonstrating definitive clinical advantages for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is), and whether this varies by socio-economic disadvantage.

METHODS

We included 1,064,645 people with type 2 diabetes registered on the National Diabetes Services Scheme. This cohort was linked to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme database to evaluate trends in diabetes medication receipt and variation by socio-economic disadvantage between 2013 and 2019.

RESULTS

The proportion of people with type 2 diabetes receiving ≥3 GLDs concurrently increased from 12% in 2013 to 25% in 2019. By 2019, 6% of people with diabetes were receiving a GLP-1 RA and 21% an SGLT2i. Disparities in receipt of GLP-1 RAs and SGLT2is by socio-economic disadvantage decreased over time (ORs for most vs. least disadvantaged quintile were 0.80 [0.77-0.85] and 0.87 [0.82-0.94] in 2014 and 0.95 [0.92-0.98] and 1.07 [1.05-1.09] in 2019 for GLP-1 RAs and SGLT2is, respectively). However, people in more disadvantaged areas were more likely to receive multiple GLDs. After stratifying by number of concurrent GLDs received, people in more disadvantaged areas were less likely to receive GLP-1 RAs and SGLT2is in 2019 (ORs for most vs. least disadvantaged: 0.81 [0.78-0.84] and 0.90 [0.87-0.93] for people receiving ≥3 GLDs, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

After controlling for intensity of glucose-lowering therapy, people in more disadvantaged areas were less likely to receive cardioprotective GLDs, although disparities decreased over time.

Global Epidemiology, Health Outcomes, and Treatment Options for Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Kidney Failure

The burden of type 2 diabetes and related complications has steadily increased over the last few decades and is one of the foremost global public health threats in the 21st century. Diabetes is one of the leading causes of chronic kidney disease and kidney failure and is an important contributor to the cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in this population. In addition, up to one in three patients who have received kidney transplants develop post-transplant diabetes, but the management of this common complication continues to pose a significant challenge for clinicians. In this review, we will describe the global prevalence and temporal trend of kidney failure attributed to diabetes mellitus in both developing and developed countries. We will examine the survival differences between treated kidney failure patients with and without type 2 diabetes, focusing on the survival differences in those on maintenance dialysis or have received kidney transplants. With the increased availability of novel hypoglycemic agents, we will address the potential impacts of these novel agents in patients with diabetes and kidney failure and in those who have developed post-transplant diabetes.

The 1-Hour Plasma Glucose: Common Link Across the Glycemic Spectrum

Evidence from populations at risk for type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes or gestational diabetes substantiates the 1-hour plasma glucose as a sensitive alternative marker for identifying high-risk individuals when ß-cell function is relatively more functional. An elevated 1-hour plasma glucose could therefore diagnose dysglycemia and risk for complications across the glycemic spectrum. Reducing the 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test to 1-hour would reduce the burden on patients, likely reduce costs, and enhance its accessibility in practice.