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Grunnill M, Arino J, McCarthy Z, Bragazzi NL, Coudeville L, Thommes EW, Amiche A, Ghasemi A, Bourouiba L, Tofighi M, Asgary A, Baky-Haskuee M, Wu J. Modelling disease mitigation at mass gatherings: A case study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011018. [PMID: 38236838 PMCID: PMC10796029 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024] Open
Abstract
The 2022 FIFA World Cup was the first major multi-continental sporting Mass Gathering Event (MGE) of the post COVID-19 era to allow foreign spectators. Such large-scale MGEs can potentially lead to outbreaks of infectious disease and contribute to the global dissemination of such pathogens. Here we adapt previous work and create a generalisable model framework for assessing the use of disease control strategies at such events, in terms of reducing infections and hospitalisations. This framework utilises a combination of meta-populations based on clusters of people and their vaccination status, Ordinary Differential Equation integration between fixed time events, and Latin Hypercube sampling. We use the FIFA 2022 World Cup as a case study for this framework (modelling each match as independent 7 day MGEs). Pre-travel screenings of visitors were found to have little effect in reducing COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations. With pre-match screenings of spectators and match staff being more effective. Rapid Antigen (RA) screenings 0.5 days before match day performed similarly to RT-PCR screenings 1.5 days before match day. Combinations of pre-travel and pre-match testing led to improvements. However, a policy of ensuring that all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination (second or booster dose) within a few months before departure proved to be much more efficacious. The State of Qatar abandoned all COVID-19 related travel testing and vaccination requirements over the period of the World Cup. Our work suggests that the State of Qatar may have been correct in abandoning the pre-travel testing of visitors. However, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations within Qatar over the World Cup. Given our findings and the spike in cases, we suggest a policy requiring visitors to have had a recent COVID-19 vaccination should have been in place to reduce cases and hospitalisations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Grunnill
- Laboratory of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Julien Arino
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Zachary McCarthy
- Laboratory of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Edward W. Thommes
- Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS), Sanofi, Lyon, France
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Abbas Ghasemi
- The Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lydia Bourouiba
- The Fluid Dynamics of Disease Transmission Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Mohammadali Tofighi
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Toronto, Canada
- Disaster & Emergency Management, York University, Toronto, Canada
| | - Ali Asgary
- Disaster & Emergency Management, York University, Toronto, Canada
- York Emergency Mitigation, Response, Engagement and Governance Institute, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Jianhong Wu
- Laboratory of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- York Emergency Mitigation, Response, Engagement and Governance Institute, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Tidman R, Fahrion AS, Thumbi SM, Wallace RM, De Balogh K, Iwar V, Yale G, Dieuzy-Labaye I. United Against Rabies Forum: The first 2 years. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1010071. [PMID: 37033019 PMCID: PMC10076768 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1010071] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 04/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Rabies continues to kill an estimated 59,000 people annually, with up to 99% of human cases transmitted by domestic dogs. The elimination of human deaths from dog-mediated rabies is achievable by applying a One Health approach, and the framework to do this is outlined in Zero by 30: the Global Strategic Plan to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. To build on this global goal, and implement the approaches set out in Zero by 30, the United Against Rabies Forum was launched in 2020. This paper gives a review of the objectives, governance, activities and achievements of the United Against Rabies Forum to date. It also outlines ongoing work, and next steps as the United Against Rabies Forum reviews its first 2 years of activities and identifies priority areas for the coming 12 months.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anna Sophie Fahrion
- Institute of International Animal Health/One Health, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Greifswald-Riems, Germany
| | - S. M. Thumbi
- Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
- Institute of Immunology and Infection Research, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States
| | - Ryan M. Wallace
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Katinka De Balogh
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Vivian Iwar
- Economic Community of West African States Commission, Abuja, Nigeria
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Kim J, Sung H, Lee H, Kim JS, Shin S, Jeong S, Choi M, Lee HJ. Clinical Performance of Rapid and Point-of-Care Antigen Tests for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: A Living Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Viruses 2022; 14:1479. [PMID: 35891461 PMCID: PMC9324571 DOI: 10.3390/v14071479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Revised: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Rapid antigen tests (RATs) for detecting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are widely used in the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by diverse variants. Information on the real-world performance of RATs for variants is urgently needed for decision makers. Systematic searches of the available literature and updates were conducted in PubMed, Ovid-MEDLINE, Ovid-EMBASE, CENTRAL, and KMBASE for articles evaluating the accuracy of instrument-free RATs for variants up until 14 March 2022. A bivariate random effects model was utilized to calculate pooled diagnostic values in comparison with real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction as the reference test. A total of 7562 samples from six studies were available for the meta-analysis. The overall pooled sensitivity and specificity of RATs for variants were 69.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 62.5% to 76.1%) and 100.0% (95% CI = 98.8% to 100.0%), respectively. When an additional 2179 samples from seven studies reporting sensitivities only were assessed, the pooled sensitivity dropped to 50.0% (95% CI = 44.0% to 55.0%). These findings suggest reassessment and monitoring of the diagnostic utility of RATs for variants, especially for the sensitivity aspect, to facilitate appropriate diagnosis and management of COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jimin Kim
- Division of Healthcare Technology Assessment Research, National Evidence-Based Healthcare Collaborating Agency, 400, Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 04933, Korea; (J.K.); (M.C.); (H.-J.L.)
| | - Heungsup Sung
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88, Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Korea;
| | - Hyukmin Lee
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50-1, Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea;
| | - Jae-Seok Kim
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, 150, Seongan-ro, Gangdong-gu, Seoul 05355, Korea;
| | - Sue Shin
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, 20, Boramae-ro 5-gil, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 07061, Korea;
| | - Seri Jeong
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine, Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, 1, Singil-ro, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul 07441, Korea
| | - Miyoung Choi
- Division of Healthcare Technology Assessment Research, National Evidence-Based Healthcare Collaborating Agency, 400, Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 04933, Korea; (J.K.); (M.C.); (H.-J.L.)
| | - Hyeon-Jeong Lee
- Division of Healthcare Technology Assessment Research, National Evidence-Based Healthcare Collaborating Agency, 400, Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 04933, Korea; (J.K.); (M.C.); (H.-J.L.)
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Cabrera C, Pilobello K, Dalvin S, Bobrow J, Shah D, Garg LF, Chalise S, Doyle P, Miller GA, Walt DR, Suliman S, Jolly P. Systematic Approach to Address Early Pandemic's Diagnostic Unmet Needs. Front Microbiol 2022; 13:910156. [PMID: 35783392 PMCID: PMC9247567 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.910156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 05/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
During the first few months of the global Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, the medical research community had to expeditiously develop, select, and deploy novel diagnostic methods and tools to address the numerous testing challenges presented by the novel virus. Integrating a systematic approach to diagnostic selection with a rapid validation protocol in a clinical setting can shorten the timeline to bring new technologies to practice. In response to the urgent need to provide tools for identifying SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals, we developed a framework for assessing technologies against a set of prioritized performance metrics to guide device selection. We also developed and proposed clinical validation frameworks for the rapid screening of new technologies. The rubric described here represents a versatile approach that can be extended to future technology assessments and can be implemented in preparation for future emerging pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine Cabrera
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, United States
| | - Kanoelani Pilobello
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Steven Dalvin
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Johanna Bobrow
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, United States
| | - Darshi Shah
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Lori Freed Garg
- Global Health Innovation Lab, Department of Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Sujata Chalise
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Patrick Doyle
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Glenn A. Miller
- Mass General Brigham Incorporated, Boston, MA, United States
| | - David R. Walt
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Sara Suliman
- Division of Rheumatology, Inflammation and Immunity, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States
- Mass General Brigham Center for COVID Innovation, Boston, MA, United States
- Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital, Division of Experimental Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Pawan Jolly
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
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