Individual plasticity in response to rising sea temperatures contributes to an advancement in green turtle nesting phenology

Phenological changes (i.e. shifts in the timing of biological events) are among the most frequently reported population-level responses to climate change and are often assumed to be adaptive and increase population viability. These may be driven by both individual-level phenotypic plasticity and population-level evolutionary and demographic changes. However, few studies have explored how individual-level versus population-level processes drive phenological trends. Using a 31-year dataset of over 600 individually marked nesting green turtles (Chelonia mydas), we quantify the population- and individual-level temporal trend in their first nest date. Of the latter, approximately 30% is attributable to individual phenological plasticity in response to sea surface temperature, with females advancing their nesting by 6.47 days for every degree (Celsius) increase. The remaining change is almost entirely explained by individual- and population-level changes in size and breeding experience (correlates of age), as well as the number of clutches laid per season. This is the first study of individual-level phenological change in a marine ectotherm, furthering our understanding of how this and similar species may respond to rising temperatures.

Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles

How species respond to climate change may impact their extinction probability. Here we link climatology and ecology to tackle a globally important conservation question. For sea turtles, there are concerns that climate warming will cause both the feminization of populations as well as reduced hatchling survival. For 58 nesting sites across the world spanning all seven sea turtle species, we investigated whether warming might be avoided by shifts in nesting phenology to a cooler part of the year. We show that even with the most extreme phenological shift that has been reported to date-an 18-day advance in nesting per °C increase in sea surface temperature (SST)-temperatures will continue to increase at nesting sites with climate warming. We estimate that SST at nesting sites will rise by an average of 0.6°C (standard deviation = 0.9°C, n = 58) when we model a 1.5°C rise in SST combined with a best-case-scenario shift in nesting. Since sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, these temperature rises could lead to increasingly female-biased sex ratios as well as reduced hatchling production at sites across the world. These findings underscore concerns for the long-term survival of this iconic group.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Climate effects on nesting phenology in Nebraska turtles

A frequent response of organisms to climate change is altering the timing of reproduction, and advancement of reproductive timing has been a common reaction to warming temperatures in temperate regions. We tested whether this pattern applied to two common North American turtle species over the past three decades in Nebraska, USA. The timing of nesting (either first date or average date) of the Common Snapping Turtle (Chelydra serpentina) was negatively correlated with mean December maximum temperatures of the preceding year and mean May minimum and maximum temperatures in the nesting year and positively correlated with precipitation in July of the previous year. Increased temperatures during the late winter and spring likely permit earlier emergence from hibernation, increased metabolic rates and feeding opportunities, and accelerated vitellogenesis, ovulation, and egg shelling, all of which could drive earlier nesting. However, for the Painted Turtle (Chrysemys picta), the timing of nesting was positively correlated with mean minimum temperatures in September, October, December of the previous year, February of the nesting year, and April precipitation. These results suggest warmer fall, and winter temperature may impose an increased metabolic cost to painted turtles that impedes fall vitellogenesis, and April rains may slow the completion of vitellogenesis through decreased basking opportunities. For both species, nest deposition was highly correlated with body size, and larger females nested earlier in the season. Although average annual ambient temperatures have increased over the last four decades of our overall fieldwork at our study site, spring temperatures have not yet increased, and hence, nesting phenology has not advanced at our site for Chelydra. While Chrysemys exhibited a weak trend toward later nesting, this response was likely due to increased recruitment of smaller females into the population due to nest protection and predator control (Procyon lotor) in the early 2000s. Should climate change result in an increase in spring temperatures, nesting phenology would presumably respond accordingly, conditional on body size variation within these populations.

Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio-Preventing Possible Extinction

Climate change poses a threat to species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). A recent study on green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) at the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) showed a highly female-skewed sex ratio with almost all juvenile turtles being female. This shortage of males might eventually cause population extinction, unless rapid evolutionary rescue, migration, range shifts, or conservation efforts ensure a sufficient number of males. We built a stochastic individual-based model inspired by C. mydas but potentially transferrable to other species with TSD. Pivotal temperature, nest depth, and shading were evolvable traits. Additionally, we considered the effect of crossbreeding between northern and southern GBR, nest site philopatry, and conservation efforts. Among the evolvable traits, nest depth was the most likely to rescue the population, but even here the warmer climate change scenarios led to extinction. We expected turtles to choose colder beaches under rising temperatures, but surprisingly, nest site philopatry did not improve persistence. Conservation efforts promoted population survival and did not preclude trait evolution. Although extra information is needed to make reliable predictions for the fate of green sea turtles, our results illustrate how evolution can shape the fate of long lived, vulnerable species in the face of climate change.

Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on a globally distributed species: the case of the loggerhead turtle

Marine turtles utilise terrestrial and marine habitats and several aspects of their life history are tied to environmental features that are altering due to rapid climate change. We overview the likely impacts of climate change on the biology of these species, which are likely centred upon the thermal ecology of this taxonomic group. Then, focusing in detail on three decades of research on the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta L.), we describe how much progress has been made to date and how future experimental and ecological focus should be directed. Key questions include: what are the current hatchling sex ratios from which to measure future climate-induced changes? What are wild adult sex ratios and how many males are necessary to maintain a fertile and productive population? How will climate change affect turtles in terms of their distribution?

Chapter 2. Vulnerability of marine turtles to climate change

Marine turtles are generally viewed as vulnerable to climate change because of the role that temperature plays in the sex determination of embryos, their long life history, long age-to-maturity and their highly migratory nature. Extant species of marine turtles probably arose during the mid-late Jurassic period (180-150 Mya) so have survived past shifts in climate, including glacial periods and warm events and therefore have some capacity for adaptation. The present-day rates of increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated temperature changes, are very rapid; the capacity of marine turtles to adapt to this rapid change may be compromised by their relatively long generation times. We consider the evidence and likely consequences of present-day trends of climate change on marine turtles. Impacts are likely to be complex and may be positive as well as negative. For example, rising sea levels and increased storm intensity will negatively impact turtle nesting beaches; however, extreme storms can also lead to coastal accretion. Alteration of wind patterns and ocean currents will have implications for juveniles and adults in the open ocean. Warming temperatures are likely to impact directly all turtle life stages, such as the sex determination of embryos in the nest and growth rates. Warming of 2 degrees C could potentially result in a large shift in sex ratios towards females at many rookeries, although some populations may be resilient to warming if female biases remain within levels where population success is not impaired. Indirectly, climate change is likely to impact turtles through changes in food availability. The highly migratory nature of turtles and their ability to move considerable distances in short periods of time should increase their resilience to climate change. However, any such resilience of marine turtles to climate change is likely to be severely compromised by other anthropogenic influences. Development of coastlines may threaten nesting beaches and reproductive success, and pollution and eutrophication is threatening important coastal foraging habitats for turtles worldwide. Exploitation and bycatch in other fisheries has seriously reduced marine turtle populations. The synergistic effects of other human-induced stressors may seriously reduce the capacity of some turtle populations to adapt to the current rates of climate change. Conservation recommendations to increase the capacity of marine turtle populations to adapt to climate change include increasing population resilience, for example by the use of turtle exclusion devices in fisheries, protection of nesting beaches from the viewpoints of both conservation and coastal management, and increased international conservation efforts to protect turtles in regions where there is high unregulated or illegal fisheries (including turtle harvesting). Increasing research efforts on the critical knowledge gaps of processes influencing population numbers, such as identifying ocean foraging hotspots or the processes that underlie the initiation of nesting migrations and selection of breeding areas, will inform adaptive management in a changing climate.