Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe

The FLURESP European commission project: cost-effectiveness assessment of ten public health measures against influenza in Italy: is there an interest in COVID-19 pandemic?

BACKGROUND

The FLURESP project is a public health research funded by the European Commission, with the objective to design a methodological framework to assess the cost-effectiveness of existing public health measures against human influenza pandemics. A dataset has been specifically collected in the frame of the Italian health system. As most of interventions against human influenza are relavant against other respiratory diseases pandemics, potential interests in COVID-19 are discussed.

METHODS

Ten public health measures against human influenza pandemics pandemic were selected to be also relevant to other respiratory virus pandemics such as COVID 19: individual (hand washing, using masks), border control (quarantine, fever screening, border closure), community infection (school closure, class dismissal, social distancing, limitation of public transport), reduction of secondary infections (implementation of antibiotic therapy guidelines), pneumococcal vaccination for at-risk people, development of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity, implementation of life support equipments in ICU, screening interventions, vaccination programs targeting health professional and targeting general population.

RESULTS

Using mortality reduction as effectiveness criteria, the most cost-effective strategies are "reduction of secondary infections" and "implementation of life support equipment in ICU". The least cost-effective option whatever the level of pandemic events are screening interventions and mass vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of intervention strategies against human influenza pandemics appears relevant against every respiratory virus, including the COVID-19 event. Measures against pandemics should be considered according to their expected effectiveness but also their costs for the society because they impose substantial burden to the population, confirming the interest of considering cost-effectiveness of public health measures to enlighten decision making.

The Preventive Health Professions in Italy: The Efficient Use of Resources, Skills and Best Practice during the Pandemic

Health visitors (HVs) and environmental health officers (EHOs) are the healthcare workers (HCWs) who, in the Italian National Health Service, mainly operate in the prevention departments of local health authorities, guaranteeing the territorial activities specifically declared with the respective professional profiles. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, it was necessary to reallocate all HCWs supporting Hygiene and Public Health Services involved on the front lines of the emergency, in order to perform preventive activities and to take immediate action to fight the spread of the virus. By means of an IT survey consisting of three sections, this study investigated how 960 HVs and EHOs dealt with this reallocation, with the shifting in service assignment, and with the perceived level of fatigue and pressure, through the application of skills acquired from university training. The synergy among the preventive health professions, the ability to work in a multi-professional team, and the complementary training of HCWs represent the main strengths for overcoming future public health challenges, aimed at protecting human health.

Emergency Management in Resolving an Emergency Situation

Experience gained from NATO operations shows that the basis for an effective solution to a crisis is a combination of a comprehensive political, civilian and military approach. The cooperation of all stakeholders is thus a basic prerequisite for the effective resolution of crisis situations. These aspects and stakeholders include emergency management. This paper deals with civil-military cooperation in times of emergency caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in the Czech Republic. It qualitatively evaluates the findings resulting from the questionnaire survey focused on the state of crisis preparedness of the Army of the Czech Republic and the functionality of emergency management in cooperation with rescue work with other teams of the rescue system. The questionnaire was carried out at military units in all regions of the Czech Republic; organizational units of the Ministry of Defence with nationwide competence, which were directly involved in securing measures related to the declaration of a state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic in March—May, 2020; Operations Command, which currently manages operations in the Czech Republic designed to manage the consequences of a pandemic; and members of the Ministry of Defence participating in the activities of the Strategic Command and Control Group. A total of 21 stakeholders took part. The experience in managing the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown that armed forces around the world have an irreplaceable position in dealing with nonmilitary crises. The conclusions and recommendations obtained from the research survey are the content of this paper.

Prevalence of Sars-Cov-2 Infection in Health Workers (HWs) and Diagnostic Test Performance: The Experience of a Teaching Hospital in Central Italy

(1) Background: Health workers (HWs) are at high risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) infections. Therefore, health authorities further recommend screening strategies for SARS-CoV-2 infection in exposed or high-risk HWs. Nevertheless, to date, the best/optimal method to screen HWs for SARS-CoV-2 infection is still under debate, and data on the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in HWs are still scarce. The present study aims to assess the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate amongst HWs in a teaching hospital in Central Italy and the diagnostic performance of SARS-CoV-2 serology (index test) in comparison with the SARS-CoV-2 RNA PCR assay (reference standard). (2) Methods: A cross-sectional study on the retrospective data of HWs tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RNA-RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal swabs and by an IgM/IgG serology assay on venous blood samples, irrespective of exposure and/or symptoms, was carried out. (3) Results: A total of 2057 HWs (median age 46, 19-69 years, females 60.2%) were assessed by the RNA RT-PCR assay and 58 (2.7%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Compared with negative HWs, SARS-CoV-2-positives were younger (mean age 41.7 versus 45.2, p < 0.01; 50% versus 31% under or equal to 40 years old, p < 0.002) and had a shorter duration of employment (64 versus 125 months, p = 0.02). Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was more frequent in positive HWs than in negatives (55.2% versus 27.5%, p < 0.0001). In 44.8% of positive HWs, no exposure was traced. None of the positive HWs had a fatal outcome, none of them had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and only one required hospitalization for mild/moderate pneumonia. In 1084 (51.2%) HWs, nasopharyngeal swabs and an IgM/IgG serology assay were performed. With regard to IgM serology, sensitivity was 0% at a specificity of 98.99% (positive predictive value, PPV 0%, negative predictive value, NPV 99.2%). Concerning IgG serology and irrespective of the time interval between nasopharyngeal swab and serology, sensitivity was 50% at a specificity of 99.1% (PPV 28.6%, NPV 99.6%). IgG serology showed a higher diagnostic performance when performed at least two weeks after testing SARS-CoV-2-positive at the RNA RT-PCR assay by a nasopharyngeal swab. (4) Conclusions: Our experience in Central Italy demonstrated a low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst HWs, but higher than in the general population. Nearly half of the positive HWs reported no previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2-infected subjects and were diagnosed thanks to the proactive screening strategy implemented. IgG serology seems useful when performed at least two weeks after an RNA RT-PCR assay. IgM serology does not seem to be a useful test for the diagnosis of active SARS-CoV-2 infection. High awareness of SARS-CoV-2 infection is mandatory for all people, but especially for HWs, irrespective of symptoms, to safeguard their health and that of patients.

Understanding Knowledge and Behaviors Related to CoViD-19 Epidemic in Italian Undergraduate Students: The EPICO Study

Background: On February 2020, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic began in Italy. In order to contain the spread of the virus, the Italian government adopted emergency measures nationwide, including closure of schools and universities, workplaces and subsequently lockdown. This survey was carried out among Italian undergraduates to explore their level of knowledge about the epidemic and the behaviors they adopted during the lockdown. Methods: An electronic questionnaire was administered to the students attending three Italian universities. Results: A good level of knowledge about the epidemic and its control was registered in the sample, mainly among students attending life sciences degree courses. The majority of the students did not modify their diet and smoking habits, while a great part of the sample reported a decrease in physical activity (PA). Conclusions: Students from life sciences courses showed a higher awareness regarding the infection and the control measures. The lockdown caused an important reduction of PA. Preventive interventions should transform the restrictive measures also as an opportunity to improve lifestyle.

Evaluating costs and health consequences of sick leave strategies against pandemic and seasonal influenza in Norway using a dynamic model

OBJECTIVES

To quantify population-level health and economic consequences of sick leave among workers with influenza symptoms.

INTERVENTIONS

Compared with current sick leave practice (baseline), we evaluated the health and cost consequences of: (1) increasing the proportion of workers on sick leave from 65% (baseline) to 80% or 90%; (2) shortening the maximum duration from symptom onset to sick leave from 4 days (baseline) to 2 days, 1.5 days, 1 day and 0.5 days; and (3) combinations of 1 and 2.

METHODS

A dynamic compartmental influenza model was developed using Norwegian population data and survey data on employee sick leave practices. The sick leave interventions were simulated under 12 different seasonal epidemic and 36 different pandemic influenza scenarios. These scenarios varied in terms of transmissibility, the proportion of symptomatic cases and illness severity (risk of primary care consultations, hospitalisations and deaths). Using probabilistic sensitivity analyses, a net health benefit approach was adopted to assess the cost-effectiveness of the interventions from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Compared with current sick leave practice, sick leave interventions were cost-effective for 31 (65%) of the pandemic scenarios, and 11 (92%) of the seasonal scenarios. Economic benefits from sick leave interventions were greatest for scenarios with low transmissibility, high symptomatic proportions and high illness severity. Overall, the health and economic benefits were greatest for the intervention involving 90% of sick workers taking sick leave within one-half day of symptoms. Depending on the influenza scenario, this intervention resulted in a 44.4%-99.7% reduction in the attack rate. Interventions involving sick leave onset beginning 2 days or later, after the onset of symptoms, resulted in economic losses.

CONCLUSIONS

Prompt sick leave onset and a high proportion of sick leave among workers with influenza symptoms may be cost-effective, particularly during influenza epidemics and pandemics with low transmissibility or high morbidity.

Preventive Effects of Vitamin D on Seasonal Influenza A in Infants: A Multicenter, Randomized, Open, Controlled Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of vitamin D for preventing influenza A in 400 infants in a multicenter, randomized, open, controlled clinical trial.

METHODS

The infants were randomized into low-dose and high-dose vitamin D groups, and serum calcium, inorganic phosphorus and 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were detected thrice in 4 months. Infants infected with influenza A were monitored for symptoms including fever, cough and wheezing. Pathogen levels and safety of vitamin D treatment were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Of 121 cases in total, 78 and 43 cases of influenza A infection occurred in the low-dose and high-dose vitamin D groups, respectively. There was a significant difference between the groups (χ = 14.6324, P = 0.0001). Among the cases of influenza infection, the median durations for fever, cough and wheezing were shorter in the high-dose vitamin D group than in the low-dose vitamin D group. The viral loads showed a downward trend in both groups and were significantly different between the groups at the second and third detections. Additionally, the incidences of adverse events and severe adverse events were very low and not significantly different between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSION

High-dose vitamin D (1200 IU) is suitable for the prevention of seasonal influenza as evidenced by rapid relief from symptoms, rapid decrease in viral loads and disease recovery. In addition, high-dose vitamin D is probably safe for infants.

The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden

Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life.

Developing a system to estimate the severity of influenza infection in England: findings from a hospital-based surveillance system between 2010/2011 and 2014/2015

The UK Severe Influenza Surveillance System (USISS) was established following the 2009 influenza pandemic to monitor severe seasonal influenza. This article describes the severity of influenza observed in five post-2009 pandemic seasons in England. Two key measures were used to assess severity: impact measured through the cumulative incidence of laboratory-confirmed hospitalised influenza and case severity through the proportion of confirmed hospitalised cases admitted into intensive care units (ICU)/high dependency units (HDU). The impact of influenza varied by subtype and age group across the five seasons with the highest crude cumulative hospitalisation incidence for influenza A/H1N1pdm09 cases in 2010/2011 and in 0-4 year olds each season for all-subtypes. Case severity also varied by subtype and season with a higher hospitalisation: ICU ratio for A/H1N1pdm09 and older age groups (older than 45 years). The USISS system provides a tool for measuring severity of influenza each year. Such seasonal surveillance can provide robust baseline estimates to allow for rapid assessment of the severity of seasonal and emerging influenza viruses.

Studies of Influenza A/H1N1 A/Tomsk/13/2010 Virus Topology during Development of Infectious Process in Mammals

Influenza A/H1N1 A/Tomsk/13/2010 virus registered in Siberia in 2010 proved to be an extremely pathogenic strain. Dynamic study of the topology of this influenza virus strain in the lungs, liver, kidneys, lymph nodes, and great vessels of infected mice was carried out. Influenza A virus was detected by immunohistochemical methods in cells of different histogenesis in all the studied organs throughout the observation period (days 1-30 postinfection), which indicated effective replication and long persistence of influenza A/H1N1 A/Tomsk/13/2010 virus in mammalian cells.