Insight the data: Wikipedia's researches and real cases of arboviruses in Italy

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal correlation between Wikitrends and conventional surveillance data generated for Chikungunya, Dengue, Zika, and West Nile Virus infection reported by bulletin of Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità in italian, ISS).

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional study design was used.

METHODS

The reported cases of Dengue and Chikungunya were selected from July 2015 to December 2019. For West Nile Virus, the bulletins are issued in the period June-November (6 months) of the years 2015-2019, and for Zika virus, the data reported in the ISS bulletin start from January 2016. From Wikipedia Trends, we extracted the number of monthly views by users from the July 2015 to December 2019 of the pages Chikungunya, Dengue, Zika virus, and West Nile Virus.

RESULTS

A correlation was observed between the bulletin of ISS and Wikipedia Wikitrends, the correlation was strong for Chikungunya and West Nile Virus (r = 0.9605; r = 0.9556, respectively), and highly statistically significant with P-values <0.001. The correlation was moderate for Dengue and Zika virus (r = 0.6053; r = 0.5888, respectively), but highly statistically significant with P-values <0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Classical surveillance system should be integrated with the tools of digital epidemiology that have potential role in public health for the dynamic information and provide near real-time indicators of the spread of infectious disease.

A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response

KEY RESULTS

Both outbreaks started in small towns, but cases were also detected in nearby larger cities where transmission was limited to small clusters. The time spans between the first and the last symptom onsets were similar between the 2 outbreaks, and the delay from the symptom onset of the index case and the first case notified was considerable. Comparable infection and transmission rates were observed in laboratory. The basic reproductive number (R0) was estimated in the range of 1.8-6 (2007) and 1.5-2.6 (2017). Clinical characteristics were similar between outbreaks, and no acute complications were reported, though a higher frequency of ocular symptoms, myalgia, and rash was observed in 2017. Very little is known about the immune mediator profile of CHIKV-infected patients during the 2 outbreaks. Regarding public health responses, after the 2007 outbreak, the Italian Ministry of Health developed national guidelines to implement surveillance and good practices to prevent and control autochthonous transmission. However, only a few regional authorities implemented it, and the perception of outbreak risk and knowledge of clinical symptoms and transmission dynamics by general practitioners remained low.

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should be devoted to developing suitable procedures for early detection of virus circulation in the population, possibly through the analysis of medical records in near real time. Increasing the awareness of CHIKV of general practitioners and public health officials through tailored education may be effective, especially in small coastal towns where the outbreak risk may be higher. A key element is also the shift of citizen awareness from considering Aedes mosquitoes not only as a nuisance problem but also as a public health one. We advocate the need of strengthening the surveillance and of promoting the active participation of the communities to prevent and contain future outbreaks.

A scoping review of published literature on chikungunya virus

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has caused several major epidemics globally over the last two decades and is quickly expanding into new areas. Although this mosquito-borne disease is self-limiting and is not associated with high mortality, it can lead to severe, chronic and disabling arthritis, thereby posing a heavy burden to healthcare systems. The two main vectors for CHIKV are Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito); however, many other mosquito species have been described as competent CHIKV vectors in scientific literature. With climate change, globalization and unfettered urban planning affecting many areas, CHIKV poses a significant public health risk to many countries. A scoping review was conducted to collate and categorize all pertinent information gleaned from published scientific literature on a priori defined aspects of CHIKV and its competent vectors. After developing a sensitive and specific search algorithm for the research question, seven databases were searched and data was extracted from 1920 relevant articles. Results show that CHIKV research is reported predominantly in areas after major epidemics have occurred. There has been an upsurge in CHIKV publications since 2011, especially after first reports of CHIKV emergence in the Americas. A list of hosts and vectors that could potentially be involved in the sylvatic and urban transmission cycles of CHIKV has been compiled in this scoping review. In addition, a repository of CHIKV mutations associated with evolutionary fitness and adaptation has been created by compiling and characterizing these genetic variants as reported in scientific literature.

Detection of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses using single-reaction multiplex real-time RT-PCR

Zika (ZIKV), Dengue (DENV) and Chikungunya viruses (CHIKV) co-circulate in the same geographical areas during the same seasonal period through the same biting arthropods. Therefore a rapid sensitive and specific molecular assay for these viruses would be a considerable help in the disease management and the epidemiological survey. We developed a one-step multiplex real-time PCR for the simultaneous detection of these viruses. Intra and inter-reproducibilities varied from 0.41% to 3.29% and from 1.13% to 4.93% for each virus respectively. The specificity was 100%. Whole blood, plasma and urines were used for comparison with commercially available monoplex assays (RealStar® kits, Altona Diagnostics GmbH, Hamburg, Germany). The concordance was 96%, 92.9% and 95.7% for ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV respectively. No cross reaction and no PCR inhibition were observed for any of the clinical samples. This test can thus be used as a rapid molecular assay for ZIKV, DENV1-4 and CHIKV infections.

O'nyong nyong virus molecular determinants of unique vector specificity reside in non-structural protein 3

O'nyong nyong virus (ONNV) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) are two closely related alphaviruses with very different infection patterns in the mosquito, Anopheles gambiae. ONNV is the only alphavirus transmitted by anopheline mosquitoes, but specific molecular determinants of infection of this unique vector specificity remain unidentified. Fifteen distinct chimeric viruses were constructed to evaluate both structural and non-structural regions of the genome and infection patterns were determined through artificial infectious feeds in An. gambiae with each of these chimeras. Only one region, non-structural protein 3 (nsP3), was sufficient to up-regulate infection to rates similar to those seen with parental ONNV. When ONNV non-structural protein 3 (nsP3) replaced nsP3 from CHIKV virus in one of the chimeric viruses, infection rates in An. gambiae went from 0% to 63.5%. No other single gene or viral region addition was able to restore infection rates. Thus, we have shown that a non-structural genome element involved in viral replication is a major element involved in ONNV's unique vector specificity.

Infection of Aedes albopictus with chikungunya virus rectally administered by enema

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus transmitted by Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in tropical areas of Africa, Asia, and the islands of the Indian Ocean. In 2007 and 2009, CHIKV was transmitted outside these tropical areas and caused geographically localized infections in people in Italy and France. To temporally and spatially characterize CHIKV infection of Ae. albopictus midguts, a comparison of viral distribution in mosquitoes infected per os or by enema was conducted. Ae. albopictus infected with CHIKV LR 5' green fluorescent protein (GFP) at a titer 10(6.95) tissue culture infective dose(50) (TCID(50))/mL, were collected and analyzed for virus dissemination by visualizing GFP expression and titration up to 14 days post inoculation (dpi). Additionally, midguts were dissected from the mosquitoes and imaged by fluorescence microscopy for comparison of midgut infection patterns between orally- and enema-infected mosquitoes. When virus was delivered via enema, the anterior midgut appeared more readily infected by 3 dpi, with increased GFP presentation observed in this same location of the midgut at 7 and 14 dpi when compared to orally-infected mosquitoes. This work demonstrates that enema delivery of virus is a viable technique for use of mosquito infection. Enema injection of mosquitoes may be an alternative to intrathoracic inoculation because the enema delivery more closely models natural infection and neither compromises midgut integrity nor involves a wound that can induce immune responses. Furthermore, unlike intrathoracic delivery, the enema does not bypass midgut barriers to infect tissues artificially in the hemocoel of the mosquito.

Global perspectives for prevention of infectious diseases associated with mass gatherings

We assess risks of communicable diseases that are associated with mass gatherings (MGs), outline approaches to risk assessment and mitigation, and draw attention to some key challenges encountered by organisers and participants. Crowding and lack of sanitation at MGs can lead to the emergence of infectious diseases, and rapid population movement can spread them across the world. Many infections pose huge challenges to planners of MGs; however, these events also provide an opportunity to engage in public health action that will benefit host communities and the countries from which participants originate.

Inflammatory cytokine expression is associated with chikungunya virus resolution and symptom severity

The Chikungunya virus infection zones have now quickly spread from Africa to parts of Asia, North America and Europe. Originally thought to trigger a disease of only mild symptoms, recently Chikungunya virus caused large-scale fatalities and widespread economic loss that was linked to recent virus genetic mutation and evolution. Due to the paucity of information on Chikungunya immunological progression, we investigated the serum levels of 13 cytokines/chemokines during the acute phase of Chikungunya disease and 6- and 12-month post-infection follow-up from patients of the Italian outbreak. We found that CXCL9/MIG, CCL2/MCP-1, IL-6 and CXCL10/IP-10 were significantly raised in the acute phase compared to follow-up samples. Furthermore, IL-1β, TNF-α, Il-12, IL-10, IFN-γ and IL-5 had low initial acute phase levels that significantly increased at later time points. Analysis of symptom severity showed association with CXCL9/MIG, CXCL10/IP-10 and IgG levels. These data give insight into Chikungunya disease establishment and subsequent convalescence, which is imperative to the treatment and containment of this quickly evolving and frequently re-emerging disease.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by mosquitoes and causes a human disease clinically characterized by sudden appearance of high fever, rash, headache, nausea, and severe joint pain (the defining symptom). Chikungunya was identified in Africa and the word Chikungunya means that which bends up, describing the bent posture of CHIKV patients while in severe pain. CHIKV, a current problem in Africa, Indian Ocean region, and Southeast Asia, is now spreading to temperate regions of North America, France and Italy. Presently, the immune response for CHIKV infection remains largely uninvestigated and no treatment is available. We investigated cytokine profiles at diagnosis and follow-up of CHIKV infected patients during the Italian 2007 outbreak and associated cytokine levels with antibody level and symptom severity. Cytokines, important immune mediators, are often drug targets. Since CHIKV symptoms can persist for months or years following infection it is important to investigate possible drug targets to alleviate discomfort. We found cytokine profiles that describe the initial infection and recovery phase. We determined the cytokines CXCL9/MIG and CXCL10/IP-10 as well as antibody levels were associated with symptom severity. These results reflect previously unreported cytokine profiles which may be important for the development of future therapeutics for CHIKV outbreaks.

Transmission potential of chikungunya virus and control measures: the case of Italy

During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus – the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country – with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North–Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117–278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%–76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8–6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector–borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high.

[Could malaria and dengue reappear in Spain?]

The recent increase in immigration to Spain has facilitated the importation of many tropical diseases. Among these diseases, those of vectorial origin are among the most difficult to study. Some of the reasons for this difficulty are the complexity due to the variety of hosts involved in the transmission cycles and the need to know all the physiological, bioecological and biogeographic parameters related to the vector in order to infer the actual possibilities of the emergence or reemergence of these diseases. This article provides information on imported diseases of unquestionable epidemiological interest for the population in Spain due to the presence of several species of culicid mosquitoes (Diptera, Culicidae) capable of transmitting these diseases in our country. Parasitic diseases such as malaria, which was highly endemic in Spain until 50 years ago, and other arboviral infections such as dengue and yellow fever, are analyzed in these terms. Various aspects related to the health system, as well as the different ways of tackling these issues, are also discussed.

Pan-European Chikungunya surveillance: designing risk stratified surveillance zones

The first documented transmission of Chikungunya within Europe took place in Italy during the summer of 2007. Chikungunya, a viral infection affecting millions of people across Africa and Asia, can be debilitating and no prophylactic treatment exists. Although imported cases are reported frequently across Europe, 2007 was the first confirmed European outbreak and available evidence suggests that Aedes albopictus was the vector responsible and the index case was a visitor from India. This paper proposed pan-European surveillance zones for Chikungunya, based on the climatic conditions necessary for vector activity and viral transmission. Pan-European surveillance provides the best hope for an early-warning of outbreaks, because national boundaries do not play a role in defining the risk of this new vector borne disease threat. A review of climates, where Chikungunya has been active, was used to inform the delineation of three pan-European surveillance zones. These vary in size each month across the June-September period of greatest risk. The zones stretch across southern Europe from Portugal to Turkey. Although the focus of this study was to define the geography of potential surveillance zones based on the climatic limits on the vector and virus, a preliminary examination of inward bound airline passengers was also undertaken. This indicated that France and Italy are likely to be at greater risk due to the number of visitors they receive from Chikungunya active regions, principally viraemic visitors from India. Therefore this study represents a first attempt at creating risk stratified surveillance zones, which we believe could be usefully refined with the use of higher resolution climate data and more complete air travel data.

Assessing the risk from emerging infections

Emerging infections pose a constant threat to society and can require a substantial response, thus systems to assess the threat level and inform prioritization of resources are essential. A systematic approach to assessing the risk from emerging infections to public health in the UK has been developed. This qualitative assessment of risk is performed using algorithms to consider the probability of an infection entering the UK population, and its potential impact, and to identify knowledge gaps. The risk assessments are carried out by a multidisciplinary, cross-governmental group of experts working in human and animal health. This approach has been piloted on a range of infectious threats identified by horizon scanning activities. A formal risk assessment of this nature should be considered for any new or emerging infection in humans or animals, unless there is good evidence that the infection is neither a recognized human disease nor a potential zoonosis.