Lumpy skin disease: I. Data collection and analysis

Clinical and molecular description of natural infections with an Asian strain of lumpy skin disease virus in Bos indicus

Knowledge of the dynamic of clinical infections with Asian strains of LSD virus (LSDV) in Bos indicus is scarce. This study reports on the clinical, serological and molecular features of natural infections with LSDV in B. indicus during the first outbreak in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2023. Eleven Peranakan ongole (PO) breed cattle with multiple skin lumps were included in the study. Data was collected on lump progression, rectal temperature, anorexia, lameness and oedema, along with serum samples, on five sampling points at four days intervals. Seroconversion was detected using an ELISA, viral DNA in sera was detected using PCR and a phylogenetic tree of the viral DNA sequences was constructed. A Kendall's tau-b bivariate correlation was conducted to test correlations between variables observed. Results showed that, after lumps, lameness was the most frequently observed clinical feature (9/11), followed by oedema, anorexia (both 6/11) and fever (5/11). Lump presence was strongly correlated with lameness and moderately correlated viral DNA load in sera (r = 0.61, P < 0.01, and r = 0.51, P < 0.01), anorexia was moderately correlated with the course of oedema (r = 0.45, P < 0.01). Younger animals were ill for longer than older individuals. Antibody levels increased on Day eight but declined rapidly yet, remained above the threshold, on day 16. The detection of viral DNA in sera was of short duration and intermittent in a few animals; the virus was closely related to Clade 2 of LSDV. This study provides preliminary knowledge of features of LSDV infection in Indonesia for further studies on vaccination, clinical treatment and prognosis of the disease.

Progress in diagnostic methods and vaccines for lumpy skin disease virus: a path towards understanding the disease

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is caused by Lumpy Skin disease virus (LSDV) belonging to the genus Capripoxvirus (CaPV). The disease is widespread in Africa, the Middle East and Asia and has been present in Egypt since 1988. LSD is mainly transmitted by blood-sucking insects. LSD is clinically distinguished by a high fever, skin nodules, and swollen Lymph nodes. Detecting sub-clinical disease can be challenging however, prompt laboratory investigations are vital. Skin lesions are the main source of infection, although the virus is shed through many excretions and discharges including semen. Disease confirmation in clinical laboratories includes detection of viral nucleic acid, antigen and antibody levels. Simple, adaptable, and quick assays for detecting LSDV are required for control measures. Vaccination, together with controlled quarantine and vector control measures, may be beneficial for preventing disease spread. Presently, a range of live attenuated vaccines, have been used in the field with different levels of protection and side effects. With high levels of vaccination coverage, attenuated Neethling vaccines have successfully eradicated of LSDV in Europe. Inactivated LSDV vaccines have also been demonstrated effective in experimental infections. Furthermore, due to its large genome, LSDV is being exploited as a vaccine delivery element, generating an innovative composite with additional viral genes by DNA recombination. Vaccines developed on this basis have the potential to prevent a wide range of diseases and have been demonstrated to be effective in experimental settings. In this review, we emphasizethe advances in diagnostic methods and vaccines developed last decade, thereby providing a basis for future research into various aspects of LSDV and providing information for possibility of disease elimination.

A poxvirus ankyrin protein LSDV012 inhibits IFIT1 in a host-species-specific manner by compromising its RNA binding ability

Poxviruses are large DNA viruses with an arsenal of immune-modulatory genes, many of which remain uncharacterized. Proteins with ankyrin repeats are distinct features of poxviruses, although the biological functions of ankyrin proteins are not fully understood. Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) encodes five proteins with ankyrin repeats. Here, we reveal the role of LSDV012, an ankyrin protein, in conferring resistance to type I interferon (IFN) in cells. Deletion of LSDV012 from LSDV significantly impacted viral replication in the presence of type I IFN, highlighting the importance of LSDV012 in antagonizing type I IFN responses. Further investigation revealed that LSDV012 interacted with interferon-induced proteins with tetratricopeptide repeats (IFITs), particularly IFIT1, altering its subcellular localization, interacting with its C-terminus and inhibiting its RNA-binding ability without inducing its degradation. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that LSDV012 orthologs are conserved in capripoxviruses and cervidpoxviruses, and exhibit host species-specific interactions with IFIT1. Notably, LSDV012 was able to rescue the degradation of IFIT1 mediated by VACV C9. These findings provide novel insights into the viral strategies employed by LSDV to subvert host antiviral defenses and underscore the evolutionary adaptations of poxvirus ankyrin proteins in host species-specific immune evasion.

Serological response to lumpy skin disease in recovered and clinically healthy vaccinated and unvaccinated cattle of Bangladesh

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is one of the most economically important transboundary animal diseases that emerged in Bangladesh in 2019. It has a significant economic impact on household cattle owners in rural settings in Bangladesh. A cross-sectional study was undertaken in selected areas of the Mymensingh districts of Bangladesh between July 2021 and May 2023. A total of 1,161 blood samples were collected from 105 households and four herds comprising 904 and 257 cattle, respectively. The presence of LSD virus (LSDV) antibodies in serum was detected using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The overall seroprevalence of LSD in the study area during the sampling period was 26.2% (n = 304/1,161; 95% confidence interval: 4.90-10.20). Based on the disease status, the seroprevalence of the recovered animal was 40.07%, significantly higher than that of unvaccinated animals that had been in contact with affected cattle but never showed any visible clinical signs of LSD (23.27%), and the seroprevalence in cattle that were showing clinical signs when serum samples were collected (18.0%). Nonetheless, seroconversion in the vaccinated population lasted 6-12 months after vaccination, and animals that recovered natural infection also exhibited measurable seroconversion up to 6 months after exposure. The study demonstrated the seroprevalence of LSD in cattle kept in rural Bangladeshi households and the duration of antibody responses in animals recovered from natural LSD infection, cattle that were clinically healthy but had circulating LSDV in the herd, and animals vaccinated with vaccines containing goat pox virus or attenuated LSDV. The results of this study help in defining an effective and feasible vaccination strategy considering the duration of immunity after vaccination or natural LSD infection.

A systematic review of epidemiological modelling in response to lumpy skin disease outbreaks

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease currently spreading worldwide and poses a serious global threat. However, there is limited evidence and understanding to support the use of models to inform decision-making in LSD outbreak responses. This review aimed to identify modelling approaches that can be used before and during an outbreak of LSD, examining their characteristics and priorities, and proposing a structured workflow. We conducted a systematic review and identified 60 relevant publications on LSD outbreak modelling. The review identified six categories of question to be addressed following outbreak detection (origin, entry pathway, outbreak severity, risk factors, spread, and effectiveness of control measures), and five analytical techniques used to address them (descriptive epidemiology, risk factor analysis, spatiotemporal analysis, dynamic transmission modelling, and simulation modelling). We evaluated the questions each analytical technique can address, along with their data requirements and limitations, and accordingly assigned priorities to the modelling. Based on this, we propose a structured workflow for modelling during an LSD outbreak. Additionally, we emphasise the importance of pre-outbreak preparation and continuous updating of modelling post-outbreak for effective decision-making. This study also discusses the inherent limitations and uncertainties in the identified modelling approaches. To support this workflow, high-quality data must be collected in standardised formats, and efforts should be made to reduce inherent uncertainties of the models. The suggested modelling workflow can be used as a process to support rapid response for countries facing their first LSD occurrence and can be adapted to other transboundary diseases.

Evaluation of longitudinal passive immunity transfer against lumpy skin disease virus in calves by different serological methods

To implement effective lumpy skin disease (LSD) control measures, such as timely vaccination, particularly in calves and serological monitoring, it is necessary to evaluate immune response after vaccination, both in adult cattle and in their calves. The aim of this study was to evaluate passive immunity transfer and duration of maternal antibodies against lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) in calves born to vaccinated cows by two different serological methods. The longitudinal study was carried out on two farms in Serbia where no cases were reported during LSD outbreak in 2016. Fifteen cows on each farm were vaccinated and revaccinated with attenuated vaccine - Neethling strain. A total of 30 cows and 30 calves on both farms were included in the study. Serum samples from cows were collected on calving day and serum samples from their respective calves on days 10, 20, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105 and 120 after birth. Colostrum samples were collected only from 15 cows on one farm. In order to determine the presence of antibodies against LSDV a total of 30 cow sera samples, 15 colostrum samples and 270 calf sera samples were examined by commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and modified virus neutralization test (VNT). Overall, the performance of both serological tests was very satisfactory. The results of this longitudinal study showed that persistence of passive immunity in calves is less than 4 months, and that most calves are not protected against LSDV at that age. Since the vaccination is the most important control measure against LSDV, the recommended age of six months for vaccination of calves born to vaccinated cows should be reassessed to achieve the most optimal protection against LSD.

Development of a Synthesized Gene Unique to Lumpy Skin Disease Virus and Its Application in Serological Differentiation of Naturally Infected from Vaccinated Cattle with Attenuated Goat Pox Vaccine

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an important infectious disease caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) in bovine. LSDV, sheep pox virus (SPPV), and goat pox virus (GTPV) from the same genus Capripoxvirus (CaPV) of the Poxviridae family exhibit a nucleotide sequence similarity of up to 97%. Therefore, attenuated vaccines of GTPV and SPPV are often used to vaccinate cattle against LSD. However, available serological testing methods cannot accurately differentiate cattle vaccinated with GTPV from those infected with LSDV, posing a significant risk for disease spread. In this study, we developed a synthesized gene unique to LSDV as a differential antigen to detect serum antibodies specific to LSDV and differentiate naturally infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA). We used it for an in-house indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (iELISA), and no cross-reaction with positive sera for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus (IBRV), Mycobacterium bovis (M. Tb), Pasteurella multocida (P. multocida), and Mycoplasma bovis (M. bovis). The cut-off value (S/P%) was 30% for in-house iELISA. The corresponding diagnostic specificity was 100% (95% CI: 88.43-100), and the diagnostic sensitivity was 93.3% (95% CI: 77.93-99.18). The intra-assay coefficient of variation (CV) ranged from 1.08% to 4.11%, and the interassay CV was 0.00%-8.90%. Furthermore, 200 clinical serum samples were examined, in the vaccinated herd, there were no positive samples (0/141) indicating the strong differentiation ability of this method. On the other hand, in the infected herds, the overall positivity was 33.90% (20/59) (95% CI: 22.08-47.39). In summary, a valuable synthesized protein unique to LSDV was developed and showed a promising application in an iELISA with high specificity and sensitivity in differentiating cattle infected with LSDV from those vaccinated with GTPV.

Persistence of passive immunity in calves receiving colostrum from cows vaccinated with a live attenuated lumpy skin disease vaccine and the performance of serological tests

This study aimed to determine the persistent duration of maternal immunity against lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) in dairy calves born from vaccinated cows using a virus neutralization test (VNT). The performance of the VNT and an in-house-ELISA test was also determined. Thirty-seven pregnant cows from 12 LSD-free dairy farms in Lamphun province, Thailand were immunized with a homologous Neethling strain-based attenuated vaccine and calved from December 2021 to April 2022. Blood samples from dam-calve pairs were collected within the first week after calving. Subsequently, blood samples were taken from the calves at monthly intervals over a period of 4 months and tested for the humoral immune response using a VNT. The calf sera were also tested with an in-house ELISA test to estimate the accuracy of both tests using a Bayesian approach. For the results, antibodies against LSDV can persist in cows for 4-9 months post-vaccination. Moreover, neutralizing antibodies and LSDV-specific antibodies against LSDV were detected in the majority of calves (75.68%) during the first week after colostrum intake. However, the percentage of seropositive calves declined to zero by day 120, with seropositivity dropping below 50% after day 60. Only a small number of seropositive calves (approximately 13.51%) were observed on day 90. These findings indicated that passive immunity against LSDV can last up to 3 months. The median of posterior estimates for sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the VNT were 87.3% [95% posterior probability interval (PPI) = 81.1-92.2%] and 94.5% (95% PPI = 87.7-98.3%), respectively. The estimated Se and Sp for the ELISA test were 83.1% (95% PPI = 73.6-92.6%) and 94.7% (95% PPI = 88.4-98.5%), respectively. In conclusion, this study illustrates the transfer and persistence of maternal passive immunity against LSDV to calves under field conditions. This highlights a potential three-month vaccination gap in calves born from vaccinated cows, while an in-house ELISA test can be used as an ancillary test for LSDV immune response detection. However, further research is required to assess the vaccination protocols for calves as young as 2 months old to precisely determine the duration of maternal immunity.

Susceptibility of Mediterranean Buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) following Experimental Infection with Lumpy Skin Disease Virus

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral disease of cattle and water buffalo characterized by cutaneous nodules, biphasic fever, and lymphadenitis. LSD is endemic in Africa and the Middle East but has spread to different Asian countries in recent years. The disease is well characterized in cattle while little is known about the disease in buffaloes in which no experimental studies have been conducted. Six buffaloes and two cattle were inoculated with an Albanian LSD virus (LSDV) field strain and clinically monitored for 42 days. Only two buffaloes showed fever, skin nodules, and lymphadenitis. All samples collected (blood, swabs, biopsies, and organs) were tested in real-time PCR and were negative. Between day 39 and day 42 after inoculation, anti-LSDV antibodies were detected in three buffaloes by ELISA, but all sera were negative by virus neutralization test (VNT). Cattle showed severe clinical signs, viremia, virus shedding proven by positive real-time PCR results, and seroconversion confirmed by both ELISA and VNT. Clinical findings suggest that susceptibility in buffaloes is limited compared to in cattle once experimentally infected with LSDV. Virological results support the hypothesis of buffalo resistance to LSD and its role as an accidental non-adapted host. This study highlights that the sensitivity of ELISA and VNT may differ between animal species and further studies are needed to investigate the epidemiological role of water buffalo.

Development and Validation of a New DIVA Real-Time PCR Allowing to Differentiate Wild-Type Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Strains, Including the Asian Recombinant Strains, from Neethling-Based Vaccine Strains

The current epidemic in Asia, driven by LSDV recombinants, poses difficulties to existing DIVA PCR tests, as these do not differentiate between homologous vaccine strains and the recombinant strains. We, therefore, developed and validated a new duplex real-time PCR capable of differentiating Neethling-based vaccine strains from classical and recombinant wild-type strains that are currently circulating in Asia. The DIVA potential of this new assay, seen in the in silico evaluation, was confirmed on samples from LSDV infected and vaccinated animals and on isolates of LSDV recombinants (n = 12), vaccine (n = 5), and classic wild-type strains (n = 6). No cross-reactivity or a-specificity with other capripox viruses was observed under field conditions in non-capripox viral stocks and negative animals. The high analytical sensitivity is translated into a high diagnostic specificity as more than 70 samples were all correctly detected with Ct values very similar to those of a published first-line pan capripox real-time PCR. Finally, the low inter- and intra-run variability observed shows that the new DIVA PCR is very robust which facilitates its implementation in the lab. All validation parameters that are mentioned above indicate the potential of the newly developed test as a promising diagnostic tool which could help to control the current LSDV epidemic in Asia.

Duration of Immunity Induced after Vaccination of Cattle with a Live Attenuated or Inactivated Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Vaccine

Vaccines have proven themselves as an efficient way to control and eradicate lumpy skin disease (LSD). In addition to the safety and efficacy aspects, it is important to know the duration for which the vaccines confer protective immunity, as this impacts the design of an efficient control and eradication program. We evaluated the duration of immunity induced by a live attenuated vaccine (LSDV LAV) and an inactivated vaccine (LSDV Inac), both based on LSDV. Cattle were vaccinated and challenged after 6, 12 and 18 months for LSDV LAV or after 6 and 12 months for the LSDV Inac. The LSDV LAV elicited a strong immune response and protection for up to 18 months, as no clinical signs or viremia could be observed after a viral LSDV challenge in any of the vaccinated animals. A good immune response and protection were similarly seen for the LSDV Inac after 6 months. However, two animals developed clinical signs and viremia when challenged after 12 months. In conclusion, our data support the annual booster vaccination when using the live attenuated vaccine, as recommended by the manufacturer, which could potentially even be prolonged. In contrast, a bi-annual vaccination seems necessary when using the inactivated vaccine.

Genetic analysis of genome sequence characteristics of two lumpy skin disease viruses isolated from China

BACKGROUND

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an acute or subacute infectious disease caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) of genus Capripoxvirus. The outbreaks of LSD were confirmed in the Yili area of the Xinjiang autonomous region in August 2019 and the Fujian province in June 2020. We detected LSDV in our daily monitoring work, then isolated, identified and sequenced the virus, and analyzed the whole genome characteristics of the isolated strain.

RESULTS

Whole genome sequencing revealed that the strains isolated were all LSDV and were named as LSDV XJ201901 and LSDV FJ2019. The results showed that the identity based on whole genome sequences between LSDV XJ201901 and LSDV FJ2019 was 100% and the identity based on whole genome sequences between the two isolated strains and the global LSDV strains was 97.28%-99.99%, with the strain LSDV72/PrachuapKhiriKhan/Thailand/2021 (99.99%) having the highest sequence identity. Analysis of potential recombination events revealed that a total of 18 potential recombination events were identified in strains LSDV XJ201901 and LSDV FJ2019. The two strains are a recombination of Neethling vaccine LW 1959 (GeneBank: AF409138.1) with KSGP 0240 (GeneBank: KX683219.1). It was observed that Neethling vaccine LW 1959 (11/18) and KSGP 0240 (10/18) are involved in most of the potential recombination events.

CONCLUSIONS

The virus isolate in this study was LSDV and was identified as a vaccine recombinant strain. The most likely potential parent strains of the two strains in this study are Neethling vaccine LW 1959 and KSGP 0240. The strains in this study are very similar to those isolated in East and Southeast Asia since 2019.

Understanding the research advances on lumpy skin disease: A comprehensive literature review of experimental evidence

Lumpy skin disease is caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), which can induce cattle with high fever and extensive nodules on the mucosa or the scarfskin, seriously influencing the cattle industry development and international import and export trade. Since 2013, the disease has spread rapidly and widely throughout the Russia and Asia. In the past few decades, progress has been made in the study of LSDV. It is mainly transmitted by blood-sucking insects, and various modes of transmission with distinct seasonality. Figuring out how the virus spreads will help eradicate LSDV at its source. In the event of an outbreak, selecting the most effective vaccine to block and eliminate the threat posed by LSDV in a timely manner is the main choice for farmers and authorities. At present, a variety of vaccines for LSDV have been developed. The available vaccine products vary in quality, protection rate, safety and side effects. Early detection of LSDV can help reduce the cost of disease. In addition, because LSDV has a huge genome, it is currently also used as a vaccine carrier, forming a new complex with other viral genes through homologous recombination. The vaccine prepared based on this can have a certain preventive effect on many kinds of diseases. Clinical detection of disease including nucleic acid and antigen level. Each method varies in convenience, accuracy, cost, time and complexity of equipment. This article reviews our current understanding of the mode of transmission of LSDV and advances in vaccine types and detection methods, providing a background for further research into various aspects of LSDV in the future.

Molecular and histopathological characterization of lumpy skin disease in cattle in northern Vietnam during the 2020-2021 outbreaks

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a serious emerging infectious disease in cattle caused by a virus of the family Poxviridae. According to the Department of Animal Health, LSD first occurred in Vietnam at the end of October 2020 in Cao Bang and Lang Son provinces. So far, the disease has infected over 63,000 animals, resulting in 9170 deaths occurring in 32 different provinces in northern and central Vietnam. In this study, skin samples from lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV)-infected cattle from the northern provinces of Vietnam displaying clinical symptoms including fever (> 40 °C), runny nose, drooling, and skin lesions were used for genetic characterization and histopathology. Genetic analysis of the partial P32 (LSDV074), partial F (LSDV117), complete RPO30 (LSDV035), and complete G-protein-coupled-chemokine-like receptor (GPCR) (LSDV011) genes showed that all Vietnamese LSDV strains belonged to the genus Capripoxvirus and were closely related to LSDV strains isolated in China. Microscopic examination of the skin lesions showed thickening of the epidermal layer of the skin and hair follicles, hyperplasia of sebaceous glands, intracytoplasmic inclusion bodies, and hemorrhages in the mesoderm.

Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005-2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast

LSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 2022) from the World Organization for Animal Health were analyzed. We determined statistically significant change points in the data using binary segmentation, and forecast the number of LSD reports using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and neural network auto-regressive (NNAR) models. Four significant change points were identified for each continent. The year between the third and fourth change points (2016-2019) in the African data was the period with the highest mean of number of LSD reports. All change points of LSD outbreaks in Europe corresponded with massive outbreaks during 2015-2017. Asia had the highest number of LSD reports in 2019 after the third detected change point in 2018. For the next three years (2022-2024), both ARIMA and NNAR forecast a rise in the number of LSD reports in Africa and a steady number in Europe. However, ARIMA predicts a stable number of outbreaks in Asia, whereas NNAR predicts an increase in 2023-2024. This study provides information that contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of LSD.

Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases for risk management

Increasing globalization and international trade contribute to rapid expansion of animal and human diseases. Hence, preparedness is warranted to prevent outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging diseases or detect outbreaks in an early stage. We developed a rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to inform risk managers on the incursion risk of multiple livestock diseases, about the main sources for incursion and the change of risk over time. RRAT was built as a relational database to link data on disease outbreaks worldwide, on introduction routes and on disease-specific parameters. The tool was parameterized to assess the incursion risk of 10 livestock diseases for the Netherlands by three introduction routes: legal trade in live animals, legal trade of animal products, and animal products illegally carried by air travelers. RRAT calculates a semi-quantitative risk score for the incursion risk of each disease, the results of which allow for prioritization. Results based on the years 2016-2018 indicated that the legal introduction routes had the highest incursion risk for bovine tuberculosis, whereas the illegal route posed the highest risk for classical swine fever. The overall incursion risk via the illegal route was lower than via the legal routes. The incursion risk of African swine fever increased over the period considered, whereas the risk of equine infectious anemia decreased. The variation in the incursion risk over time illustrates the need to update the risk estimates on a regular basis. RRAT has been designed such that the risk assessment can be automatically updated when new data becomes available. For diseases with high-risk scores, model results can be analyzed in more detail to see which countries and trade flows contribute most to the risk, the results of which can be used to design risk-based surveillance. RRAT thus provides a multitude of information to evaluate the incursion risk of livestock diseases at different levels of detail. To give risk managers access to all results of RRAT, an online visualization tool was built.

Perception of low social pressure and lack of capacity reduces vaccination compliance - The case of lumpy skin disease

Successful prevention of epidemics depends on implementation of control measures, including vaccine compliance and maintenance of high vaccination coverage for long periods. However, to the best of our knowledge, a study of the temporal dynamics of compliance in voluntary vaccination campaigns and of the factors which influence them was never published. In this study, we investigated the factors influencing the dynamics of vaccination compliance against lumpy skin disease (LSD) after the occurrence of LSD epidemics in Israel in 2012-2013 and 2019. From 2016 to 2019, we followed voluntary LSD annual vaccination among a cohort of 566 farmers and used questionnaires based on the theory of planned behaviour to investigate the incentives influencing vaccine compliance among 90 farmers. The results showed a reduction in vaccination against LSD from 61% in 2016 to 27% in 2019 and a very strong association between prior vaccination and vaccination compliance. The actual vaccination by farmers who stated a positive intention to vaccinate was 4.5 times higher than farmers who did not (p-value = .007). However, half of the highly intended farmers eventually did not vaccinate their herd. These farmers were significantly more concerned by manpower and vaccine price compared to their vaccinating counterparts, pointing to vaccination effort perceptions as a major factor influencing compliance. In addition, we found that farmers who answered the questionnaires before the LSD epidemic of 2019 perceived significantly less pressure to vaccinate imposed by veterinary organizations (private and governmental) than farmers answering them during or after the epidemic. We conclude that the veterinarian-associated social pressure is a major compliance-enhancing factor, influenced by the occurrence of an epidemic. Our findings suggest that the deterioration of vaccination compliance after an epidemic can be mitigated by maintenance of pressure to vaccinate by veterinarians. Manpower support and vaccine discounts may be advocated to promote vaccine compliance.

Update of Lumpy Skin Disease: Emergence in Asian Part of Eurasia

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease mostly of cattle. The typical clinical picture is usually characterized by the appearance of multiple nodules on the skin and internal organs. They can cover the entire body of the animal in the course of severe illness. This disease causes serious economic damage despite the fact that mortality of cattle with LSD is often low. Now LSD is a serious danger for cattle in the Asian part of Russia (part of the territory of the Russian Federation geographically belonging to Asia) and the Southeast Asia. Initially LSD was an endemic disease in many Sub-Saharan African countries, then it spread to Asia and Europe. In order to prevent the spread of the lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), strict quarantine is introduced, vector control is carried out and various other LSD control measures are implemented. An effective vaccination campaign is required to significantly reduce the morbidity. However, the risk of spreading this transboundary disease to neighboring LSDV virus-free countries and regions of Asia, remains high enough. This article contains a summary of the available information about the spread of LSD in Asian part of Eurasia for the period of 1984 - February 2022. We are also discussing the latest available findings on the epidemiology of LSD and the methods currently used for the prevention and control of the LSDV.

Genetic and phylogenetic analysis of lumpy skin disease viruses (LSDV) isolated from the first and subsequent field outbreaks in India during 2019 reveals close proximity with unique signatures of historical Kenyan NI-2490/Kenya/KSGP-like field strains

Lumpy skin disease (LSD), an economically important viral disease of cattle caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) has recently spread into South and East Asia. LSD emerged in India in August 2019, first in Odisha State and spread to other areas, but there is scanty data on source and molecular epidemiology of LSDV involved in the initial outbreaks. Here we report genetic relationships and molecular features of LSDV, causing outbreaks in cattle spanning seven districts in Odisha and West Bengal States during August-December, 2019. Twelve LSDV isolates obtained using lamb testis cells were sequenced and analysed in four complete genes, GPCR, RPO30, P32 and EEV. The phylogenetic analysis revealed that all the Indian LSDV isolates from 2019 outbreaks are very closely related (99.7%-100%) to the historical Kenyan NI-2490/Kenya/KSGP-like field strains. Importantly, our results demonstrated that LSDV strains involved in 2019 outbreaks in India and Bangladesh are very similar in GPCR (99.7%), RPO30 (100%) and partial EEV (100%) sequences, indicating a common exotic source of LSDV introduction. Additionally, a 12-nucleotide insertion was found in GPCR gene of LSDV strains from 2019 outbreaks in India and Bangladesh. The findings of this study highlight the importance of continuous monitoring and molecular characterization of LSDV strains. These data should be useful while developing diagnostic and control strategies against LSD in India.

Assessment of the control measures for category A diseases of Animal Health Law: Lumpy Skin Disease

EFSA received a mandate from the EC to assess the effectiveness of some of the control measures against diseases included in the Category A list according to Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases ('Animal Health Law'). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where these control measures are assessed, with this opinion covering the assessment of control measures for Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of: i) clinical and laboratory sampling procedures, ii) monitoring period and iii) the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zones, and the minimum length of time that measures should be applied in these zones. The general methodology used for this series of opinions has been published elsewhere; nonetheless, the transmission kernels used for the assessment of the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zones are shown. Several scenarios for which these control measures had to be assessed were designed and agreed prior to the start of the assessment. The monitoring period was assessed as effective, and based on the transmission kernels available, it was concluded that the protection zone of 20 km radius and the surveillance zone of 50 km radius would comprise > 99% of the transmission from an affected establishment if transmission occurred. Recommendations provided for each of the assessed scenarios aim to support the European Commission in the drafting of further pieces of legislation, as well as for plausible ad hoc requests in relation to LSD.

Detection of Clinical and Subclinical Lumpy Skin Disease Using Ear Notch Testing and Skin Biopsies

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) diagnosis is primarily based on clinical surveillance complemented by PCR of lesion crusts or nodule biopsies. Since LSD can be subclinical, the sensitivity of clinical surveillance could be lower than expected. Furthermore, real-time PCR for the detection of LSD viral DNA in blood samples from subclinical animals is only intermittently positive. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate an acceptable, easily applicable and more sensitive testing method for the detection of clinical and subclinical LSD. An animal experiment was conducted to investigate ear notches and biopsies from unaffected skin taken from the neck and dorsal back as alternatives to blood samples. It was concluded that for early LSD confirmation, normal skin biopsies and ear notches are less fit for purpose, as LSDV DNA is only detectable in these samples several days after it is detectable in blood samples. On the other hand, blood samples are less advisable for the detection of subclinical animals, while ear notches and biopsies were positive for LSD viral DNA in all subclinically infected animals by 16 days post infection. In conclusion, ear notches could be used for surveillance to detect subclinical animals after removing the clinical animals from a herd, to regain trade by substantiating the freedom of disease or to support research on LSDV transmission from subclinical animals.

The role of wildlife in the epidemiology and control of Foot-and-mouth-disease And Similar Transboundary (FAST) animal diseases: A review

Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs) are notifiable diseases which are highly transmissible and have the potential for rapid spread regardless of national borders. Many TADs are shared between domestic animals and wildlife, with the potential to affect both livestock sector and wildlife conservation and eventually, public health in the case of zoonosis. The European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EuFMD), a commission of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has grouped six TADs as 'Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) And Similar Transboundary animal diseases' (FAST diseases). FAST diseases are ruminant infections caused by viruses, for which vaccination is a control option. The EuFMD hold-FAST strategy aims primarily at addressing the threat represented by FAST diseases for Europe. Prevention and control of FAST diseases might benefit from assessing the role of wildlife. We reviewed the role of wildlife as indicators, victims, bridge hosts or maintenance hosts for the six TADs included in the EuFMD hold-FAST strategy: FMD, peste des petits ruminants, lumpy skin disease, sheep and goatpox, Rift Valley fever and bovine ephemeral fever. We observed that wildlife can act as indicator species. In addition, they are occasionally victims of disease outbreaks, and they are often relevant for disease management as either bridge or maintenance hosts. Wildlife deserves to become a key component of future integrated surveillance and disease control strategies in an ever-changing world. It is advisable to increase our knowledge on wildlife roles in relevant TADs to improve our preparedness in case of an outbreak in previously disease-free regions, where wildlife may be significant for disease surveillance and control.

Research priorities to fill knowledge gaps in the control of African swine fever: possible transmission of African swine fever virus by vectors

The European Commission requested that EFSA provide study designs for the investigation of four research domains according to major gaps in knowledge identified by EFSA in a report published in 2019: (i) the patterns of seasonality of African Swine Fever (ASF) in wild boar and domestic pigs in the EU; (ii) the epidemiology of ASF in wild boar; (iii) survival of ASF virus (ASFV) in the environment and (iv) transmission of ASFV by vectors. In this Scientific Opinion, the fourth research domain on ASFV transmission by vectors is addressed. Eleven research objectives were proposed by the EFSA working group and broader ASF expert networks, such as ASF stop, ENETWILD, VectorNet, AHAW network and the AHAW Panel Experts. Of the 11 research objectives, six were prioritised based on the following set of criteria: (1) the impact on ASF management; (2) the feasibility or practicality to carry out the study; (3) the potential implementation of study results in practice; (4) a possible short time-frame study (< 1 year); (5) the novelty of the study and (6) if it was a priority for risk managers. The prioritised research objectives were: (I) Studies on the potential vector fauna at the pig-wild boar interface and the feeding preference of blood-feeding potential vectors in ASF-affected areas; (II) Assessment of the efficacy of insect screens on indoor/outdoor pig holdings to prevent the entry of blood-sucking vectors (i.e. Stomoxys) in ASF endemic areas; (III) Assess the role of mechanical vectors in the virus transmission in ASF-affected areas; (IV) Distribution of the potential mechanical transmission vectors in ASF-affected areas of the EU; (V) ASFV transmission by synanthropic birds; and (VI) Assessment on the presence/absence of the soft tick Ornithodoros erraticus in ASF-affected areas in Europe. For each of the selected research objectives, a research protocol has been proposed considering the potential impact on ASF management and the period of 1 year for the research activities.

Comparative Evaluation of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus-Based Live Attenuated Vaccines

Vaccines form the cornerstone of any control, eradication and preventative strategy and this is no different for lumpy skin disease. However, the usefulness of a vaccine is determined by a multiplicity of factors which include stability, efficiency, safety and ease of use, to name a few. Although the vaccination campaign in the Balkans against lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) was successful and has been implemented with success in the past in other countries, data of vaccine failure have also been reported. It was therefore the purpose of this study to compare five homologous live attenuated LSDV vaccines (LSDV LAV) in a standardized setting. All five LSDV LAVs studied were able to protect against a challenge with virulent LSDV. Aside from small differences in serological responses, important differences were seen in side effects such as a local reaction and a Neethling response upon vaccination between the analyzed vaccines. These observations can have important implications in the applicability in the field for some of these LSDV LAVs.

Capripoxvirus Infections in Ruminants: A Review

Lumpy skin disease, sheeppox, and goatpox are notifiable diseases of cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively, caused by viruses of the Capripoxvirus genus. They are responsible for both direct and indirect financial losses. These losses arise through animal mortality, morbidity cost of vaccinations, and constraints to animals and animal products' trade. Control and eradication of capripoxviruses depend on early detection of outbreaks, vector control, strict animal movement, and vaccination which remains the most effective means of control. To date, live attenuated vaccines are widely used; however, conferred protection remains controversial. Many vaccines have been associated with adverse reactions and incomplete protection in sheep, goats, and cattle. Many combination- and recombinant-based vaccines have also been developed. Here, we review capripoxvirus infections and the immunity conferred against capripoxviruses by their respective vaccines for each ruminant species. We also review their related cross protection to heterologous infections.

Lumpy skin disease in Kazakhstan

This study describes the registration of the first cases of lumpy skin disease in July 2016 in the Republic of Kazakhstan. In the rural district of Makash, Kurmangazinsky district of Atyrau region, 459 cattle fell ill and 34 died (morbidity 12.9% and mortality 0.96%). To determine the cause of the disease, samples were taken from sick and dead animals, as well as from insects and ticks. LSDV DNA was detected by PCR in all samples from dead animals and ticks (Dermacentor marginatus and Hyalomma asiaticum), in 14.29% of samples from horseflies (Tabanus bromius), and in one of the samples from two Stomoxys calcitrans flies. The reproductive LSD virus was isolated from organs of dead cattle and insects in the culture of LT and MDBK cells. The virus accumulated in cell cultures of LT and MDBK at the level of the third passage with titers in the range of 5.5–5.75 log 10 TCID50/cm³. Sequencing of the GPCR gene allowed us to identify this virus as a lumpy skin disease virus.

Lumpy skin disease, an emerging transboundary viral disease: A review

Lumpy skin disease is an emerging bovine viral disease, which is endemic in most African countries and some Middle East ones, and the elevated risk of the spread of disease into the rest of Asia and Europe should be considered. The recent rapid spread of disease in currently disease-free countries indicates the importance of understanding the limitations and routes of distribution. The causative agent, Capripoxvirus, can also induce sheeppox and goatpox. The economic significance of these diseases is of great concern, given that they threaten international trade and could be used as economic bioterrorism agents. The distribution of capripoxviruses seems to be expanding due to limited access to effective vaccines and poverty within farming communities. This is largely due to the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the imposition of crippling sanctions in endemic regions, as well as an increase in the legal and illegal trade of live animals and animal products, and also global climate change. The present review is designed to provide existing information on the various aspects of the disease such as its clinicopathology, transmission, epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention and control measures, and the potential role of wildlife in the further spread of disease.

Inferences about the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus between herds from outbreaks in Albania in 2016

Lumpy skin disease has recently emerged as a major threat to cattle populations outside of Africa, where it is endemic. In 2015 the first ever European outbreaks occurred in Greece, which were followed by spread across much of the Balkans in 2016. Here we use a simple mathematical model for the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) between herds to explore factors influencing its spread by fitting it to data on outbreaks in Albania in 2016. We show that most transmission occurs over short distances (<5 km), but with an appreciable probability of transmission at longer distances. We also show that there is evidence for seasonal variation in the force of infection associated with temperature, possibly through its influence on the relative abundance of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans. These two results together are consistent with LSDV being transmitted by the bites of blood-feeding insects, though further work is required to incriminate specific species as vectors. Finally, we show that vaccination has a significant impact on spread and estimate the vaccine effectiveness to be 76%.

The Effect of Vaccination with Live Attenuated Neethling Lumpy Skin Disease Vaccine on Milk Production and Mortality-An Analysis of 77 Dairy Farms in Israel

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an economically important, arthropod borne viral disease of cattle. Vaccination by the live attenuated homologous Neethling vaccine was shown as the most efficient measure for controlling LSD. However, adverse effects due to vaccination were never quantified in a controlled field study. The aim of this study was to quantify the milk production loss and mortality due to vaccination against LSD. Daily milk production, as well as culling and mortality, were retrieved for 21,844 cows accommodated in 77 dairy cattle farms in Israel. Adjusted milk production was calculated for each day during the 30 days post vaccination. This was compared to the preceding month by fitting mixed effects linear models. Culling and mortality rates were compared between the 60 days periods prior and post vaccination, by survival analysis. The results of the models indicate no significant change in milk production during the 30 days post vaccination period. No difference was observed between the pre- and post-vaccination periods in routine culling, as well as in immediate culling and in-farm mortality. We conclude that adverse effects due to Neethling vaccination are negligible.

Lumpy skin disease epidemiological report IV: data collection and analysis

In 2019, no lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were reported in South-Eastern Europe, the mass vaccination regional campaign with homologous LSD vaccine continued for the fourth year with over 1.8 million bovines vaccinated in the region, preventing further outbreaks since 2016. LSD outbreaks were reported in Turkey, including western Turkey, in Russia and in eastern Asia affecting China, Bangladesh and India for the first time. The use of homologous vaccine should be considered in the countries still affected in order to eliminate the virus. Besides passive surveillance, which is implemented in all the countries, active surveillance for early detection based on clinical examination could be conducted ideally during April-October every 5 weeks in at-risk areas, based on possible re-emergence or re-introduction from affected neighbouring countries. Active surveillance for proving disease freedom could be based on serological testing (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)) targeting 3.5% seroprevalence and conducted on a random sample of cattle herds on non-vaccinated animals. LSD re-emerged in Israel in 2019, after vaccination became voluntary. This shows that, if the virus is still circulating in the region, the reduced protection might result in re-emergence of LSD. In case of re-emergence, a contingency plan and vaccine stockpiling would be needed, in order to react quickly. From a study performed in Israel to test side effects of live-attenuated homologous LSD vaccine, milk production can be reduced during 7 days after vaccination (around 6-8 kg per cow), without a significant loss in the 30 days after vaccination. Research needs should be focused on the probability of transmission from insect to bovine, the virus inactivation rate in insects, the collection of baseline entomological data, the capacity of vector species in LSDV transmission linked to studies on their abundance and the control of Stomoxys calcitrans being the most important vector in LSD transmission.

Morphological Characteristics of Skin Lesions in Cattle Naturally Infected with Lumpy Skin Disease Virus in Serbia

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a disease of cattle and domestic buffaloes caused by Capripoxvirus which can lead to significant economic losses. Until several years ago it was limited to Africa and the Middle East, but recently it was reported in Turkey (2013), Greece (2015), and in 2016 it spread to Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro and Serbia. The aim of this study was to determine the microscopic lesions in the skin of naturally infected animals, highlight their features and compare them to the findings of other authors. Gross lesions in the skin of cattle infected with Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) were manifested in the form of skin nodules which were round, raised, clearly circumscribed, firm and randomly distributed in the whole skin including the vulva and udder. Histopathological lesions included degeneration of epithelial cells, hyperkeratosis, spongiosis, and acanthosis present in 85.88%, 81.18%, 84.71%, and 80.0% of samples, respectively. Intracytoplasmic inclusion bodies were noted in keratinocytes of the stratum spinosum in 56.47% of samples, and in hair follicle cells and sebaceous glands epithelial cells in 45.88% of samples. Cutaneous lesions were in the form of inflammatory infiltrate present in the dermis and subcutis in 97.65% of samples. Since there are only a few literature data in this field, this study expands the knowledge relating to morphological alterations in LSD. Based on the characteristic microscopic lesions described in the present study, histopathology should be considered as a very useful method for the diagnosis of LSD.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for lumpy skin disease virus seropositivity in cattle in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary cattle disease caused by a Capripoxvirus of the family Poxviridae. In Uganda, documented information on the epidemiology of the disease is rare and there is no nationwide control plan, yet LSD is endemic. This study set out to investigate the seroprevalence of lumpy skin disease and determine the risk factors for LSD seropositivity, by carrying out a cross-sectional study in 21 districts of Uganda.

RESULTS

A total of 2,263 sera samples were collected from 65 cattle herds and an indirect ELISA was used to screen for lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) antibodies. We used univariable and multivariable mixed effect logistic regression models to identify risk factors for LSD seropositivity. The overall animal and herd-level seroprevalences were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.0-9.3) and 72.3% (95% CI: 70.0-80.3), respectively. Animal-level seroprevalence in Central region (OR = 2.13, p = 0.05, 95% CI: 1.10-4.64) was significantly different from the Northern region (Reference) and Western region (OR = 0.84, p = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.39-1.81). Management type, sex, age, mean annual precipitation > 1000 mm, and drinking from communal water sources were statistically significant risk factors for occurrence of anti-LSDV antibodies in cattle. Breed, region, herd size, contact with buffalo and other wildlife and introduction of new cattle did not have a statistically significant association with being positive for LSDV.

CONCLUSION

We report a high herd-level LSDV seroprevalence in Uganda with a moderate animal-level seroprevalence. Cattle with the highest risk of LSD infection in Uganda are those in fenced farms, females > 25 months old, in an area with a mean annual rainfall > 1000 mm, and drinking from a communal water source.

Epizootic features and control measures for lumpy skin disease in south-east Serbia in 2016

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease of cattle caused by virus of the Capripoxvirus genus (LSDV), family Poxviridae. Until 2015, it had not appeared in the Balkans. In June 2016, LSD spread throughout Serbia. This study analyses the first LSD occurrence, epizootic features, applied diagnostic procedures and control measures in five districts in south-east Serbia (Pcinja, Jablanica, Pirot, Toplica and Nisava). In total, there were 225 LSD outbreaks reported in Serbia, out of which 189 (84%) were located in the study area. The highest number of outbreaks was registered in Pcinja district (169), where LSD was first registered. The median distance and time between the nearest previous outbreak sites were calculated (4.32 km and 9 days). The median altitude of outbreak locations was 992 m with more than 90% above 500 m (p ≤ 0.001). The average herd morbidity rate in the study area was 13.6% and the herd mortality rate was recorded only in Pcinja (0.5%) and Jablanica (1.6%) districts. Samples taken from the cattle suspected to LSD were subjected to real time PCR analysis. Out of 233 samples tested for LSDV 132 (56.7%) were positive. The LSDV genome was identified in skin nodules (85.4%), blood (72.7%) and nasal swabs (62.5%). Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the LSDV strain circulating in Serbia fell within the cluster of field LSDV found worldwide. In response to the LSD epizootic, animal trade and movement were prohibited, complete stamping out, disinfection, disinsection and an entire bovine population vaccination using the homologous Neethling live attenuated vaccine (OBP, South Africa) were conducted. A month and a half after the completion of the vaccination campaign, the LSD epizootic was stopped, and no new cases have been reported since.

Detection of antibodies against Lumpy skin disease virus by Virus neutralization test and ELISA methods

Infection of cattle with lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is very important from the aspect of livestock production. Although it can cause significant economic losses, available serological assays are still not sufficiently efficient and reliable. A 3-day VNT was performed using Madin-Darby bovine kidney (MDBK) cell line and LSDV isolated from clinically infected cow to improve serological diagnostics of lumpy skin disease (LSD).

In total, 325 cattle sera samples were tested in order to compare the performances of VNT and ELISA. Tested samples originated from 125 cows before the occurrence of LSD in the Republic of Serbia and 200 tested samples originated from vaccinated cows. Sera samples from vaccinated cows were collected starting from the vaccination day to 4 months after vaccination. In 7 different time intervals after vaccination sampling was carried out in 20 cows originating from one herd and in 3 different time intervals in 20 cows originating from a different herd each time of sampling.

Out of 200 samples from vaccinated cows, antibodies against LSDV were detected in 68 (34%) samples by VNT, and in 60 (30%) samples by ELISA. No positive finding was detected by VNT in samples collected before the occurrence of LSD in Serbia, while one positive finding was detected in the same samples by ELISA. The first presence of antibodies in vaccinated cattle was detected by both tests 20 days after vaccination, and the largest number of animals with antibodies against LSDV was detected 30 days after vaccination.

Comparing the results obtained by VNT and ELISA, it was calculated that kappa index was 0.913. The specificity of VNT and ELISA was 100% and 99.2%, respectively. VNT is simpler to perform compared to the recommended virus neutralization test by the OIE and can improve LSD serological diagnostics with additional sensitivity testing.

Humoral immune response to repeated lumpy skin disease virus vaccination and performance of serological tests

BACKGROUND

In the presented study we investigated the development of the humoral immune response against LSDV during the process of re-vaccination of cattle over a time span of 5 months. In addition, the performance of different serological techniques for antibody detection against LSDV was compared. For sample collection, an area without previous LSD outbreak reports in Serbia was selected. Seventy-nine cattle from twenty farms vaccinated in 2016 and re-vaccinated in 2017 were included in the study. Two farms from the same area with good calving management were selected for investigation of passive LSDV antibody transfer from vaccinated mothers to new-borne calves.

RESULTS

All investigated cattle were healthy on the day of vaccination and during the whole study. Swelling at the injection site or other side effects of vaccination did not occur after re-vaccination in the study. Detection of LSD-specific antibodies was performed with the standard serological methods VNT and IFAT as well as a commercially available Capripox double antigen multi-species-ELISA. Capripoxvirus-specific antibodies were detected 46 to 47 weeks after vaccination in 2016, with VNT in 35.06% and with IFAT and ELISA in 33.77%. A secondary response was observed in all three tests 1 month after re-vaccination with a significant increase in seropositive animals compared to the results before re-vaccination. With all applied serological methods, the number of animals testing positive was significantly higher at 1 and 5 months post re-vaccination than before re-vaccination. No significant statistical difference (p > 0.05) was observed between the results of all three tests used. The sensitivity and specificity of ELISA was estimated to be SeELISA 91% and SpELISA 87% calculated by the results of VNT and SeELISA 88% and SpELISA 76% calculated by the results of IFAT. Passive antibody transfer from vaccinated mothers to new-born calves was investigated at 14 days after birth. Discrepancies for the detection of LSDV specific antibodies between cows and newborn calves at the age of 14 days were observed in VNT and IFAT, but not in ELISA.

CONCLUSION

Of all tests used the commercially available ELISA shows to be the most useful for high throughput analysis compared to VNT or IFAT.

A generic framework for spatial quantitative risk assessments of infectious diseases: Lumpy skin disease case study

The increase in availability of spatial data and the technological advances to handle such data allow for subsequent improvements in our ability to assess risk in a spatial setting. We provide a generic framework for quantitative risk assessments of disease introduction that capitalizes on these new data. It can be adopted across multiple spatial scales, for any pathogen, method of transmission or location. The framework incorporates the risk of initial infection in a previously uninfected location due to registered movement (e.g., trade) and unregistered movement (e.g., daily movements of wild animals). We discuss the steps of the framework and the data required to compute it. We then outline how this framework is applied for a single pathway using lumpy skin disease as a case study, a disease which had an outbreak in the Balkans in 2016. We calculate the risk of initial infection for the rest of Europe in 2016 due to trade. We perform the risk assessment on 3 spatial scales-countries, regions within countries and individual farms. We find that Croatia (assuming no vaccination occurred) has the highest mean probability of infection, with Italy, Hungary and Spain following. Including import detection of infected trade does reduce risk but this reduction is proportionally lower for countries with highest risk. The risk assessment results are consistent across the spatial scales, while in addition, at the finer spatial scales, it highlights specific areas or individual locations of countries on which to focus surveillance.