The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment

Statement on the toxicological properties and maximum residue levels of acetamiprid and its metabolites

Acetamiprid is a pesticide active substance with insecticidal action whose approval was renewed by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/113. In January 2022, the EFSA PPR Panel published a statement following a request from the European Commission to advise on human health or the environment based on new scientific evidence presented by France during the decision-making phase. In July 2022, by means of a further mandate received from the European Commission, EFSA was requested to provide advice if new information and any other scientific evidence that has become available since the assessment conducted for the renewal in 2018 warrant re-evaluation of (i) toxicological parameters used for the risk assessment of acetamiprid during the renewal process, including toxicological endpoints; (ii) the residue definition for acetamiprid in products of plant origin; and (iii) the safety of existing maximum residue levels (MRLs). Meanwhile, the applicant of acetamiprid in the EU submitted new toxicology studies regarding the toxicological profile of the metabolite IM-2-1. Furthermore, the European Commission was made aware that several recent publications in scientific literature were made available after the literature searches conducted by EFSA. As the new data could affect the advice that EFSA was expected to deliver through the 2022 mandate, EFSA was further requested to consider this information by means of a revised mandate received in September 2023. As regards re-evaluation of point (i) in this statement, this was addressed by an EFSA Working Group integrating all the available evidence. The results of the weight of evidence indicated that there are major uncertainties in the body of evidence for the developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) properties of acetamiprid and further data are therefore needed to come to a more robust mechanistic understanding to enable appropriate hazard and risk assessment. In view of these uncertainties, the EFSA WG proposed to lower the acceptable daily intake (ADI) and acute reference dose (ARfD) from 0.025 to 0.005 mg/kg body weight (per day). A revised residue definition for risk assessment was proposed for leafy and fruit crops as sum of acetamiprid and N-desmethyl-acetamiprid (IM-2-1), expressed as acetamiprid. Regarding pulses/oilseeds, root crops and cereals, the new data received did not indicate a need to modify the existing residue definition for risk assessment, which therefore remains as parent acetamiprid. Regarding the residue definition for enforcement, the available data did not indicate a need to modify the existing definition because acetamiprid is still a sufficient marker of the residues in all crop groups. Considering the new health-based guidance values derived in the present statement, a risk for consumer has been identified for 38 MRLs currently in place in the EU Regulation. Consequently, EFSA recommended to lower the existing MRLs for 38 commodities based on the assessment of fall-back Good Agricultural Practices received within an ad hoc data call. Some fall-back MRLs proposals require further risk management considerations.

Re-evaluation of certain aspects of the EFSA Scientific Opinion of April 2010 on risk assessment of parasites in fishery products, based on new scientific data. Part 1: ToRs1-3

Surveillance data published since 2010, although limited, showed that there is no evidence of zoonotic parasite infection in market quality Atlantic salmon, marine rainbow trout, gilthead seabream, turbot, meagre, Atlantic halibut, common carp and European catfish. No studies were found for greater amberjack, brown trout, African catfish, European eel and pikeperch. Anisakis pegreffii, A. simplex (s. s.) and Cryptocotyle lingua were found in European seabass, Atlantic bluefin tuna and/or cod, and Pseudamphistomum truncatum and Paracoenogonimus ovatus in tench, produced in open offshore cages or flow-through ponds or tanks. It is almost certain that fish produced in closed recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) or flow-through facilities with filtered water intake and exclusively fed heat-treated feed are free of zoonotic parasites. Since the last EFSA opinion, the UV-press and artificial digestion methods have been developed into ISO standards to detect parasites in fish, while new UV-scanning, optical, molecular and OMICs technologies and methodologies have been developed for the detection, visualisation, isolation and/or identification of zoonotic parasites in fish. Freezing and heating continue to be the most efficient methods to kill parasites in fishery products. High-pressure processing may be suitable for some specific products. Pulsed electric field is a promising technology although further development is needed. Ultrasound treatments were not effective. Traditional dry salting of anchovies successfully inactivated Anisakis. Studies on other traditional processes - air-drying and double salting (brine salting plus dry salting) - suggest that anisakids are successfully inactivated, but more data covering these and other parasites in more fish species and products is required to determine if these processes are always effective. Marinade combinations with anchovies have not effectively inactivated anisakids. Natural products, essential oils and plant extracts, may kill parasites but safety and organoleptic data are lacking. Advanced processing techniques for intelligent gutting and trimming are being developed to remove parasites from fish.

Commodity risk assessment of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. unrooted cuttings from Kenya

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Kenya. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria, based on the methodology used for High-Risk Plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Fourteen EU-regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, cowpea mild mottle virus, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, potato leafroll virus, potato spindle tuber viroid, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, R. solanacearum, Scirtothrips dorsalis, tomato mild mottle virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus and Xanthomonas vesicatoria) and six EU non-regulated pests (Aleurodicus dispersus, pepper veinal mottle virus, Nipaecoccus viridis, Phenacoccus solenopsis, Tetranychus neocaledonicus and tomato yellow ring virus) fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Kenya were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. Additionally, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with T. neocaledonicus being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9942 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. per 10,000 would be free of T. neocaledonicus.

Risks for animal and human health related to the presence of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) in feed and food

EFSA was asked for a scientific opinion on the risks for animal and human health related to the presence of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) in feed and food. The assessment focused on hexaCNs due to very limited data on other PCN congeners. For hexaCNs in feed, 217 analytical results were used to estimate dietary exposures for food-producing and non-food-producing animals; however, a risk characterisation could not be performed because none of the toxicological studies allowed identification of reference points. The oral repeated dose toxicity studies performed in rats with a hexaCN mixture containing all 10 hexaCNs indicated that the critical target was the haematological system. A BMDL20 of 0.05 mg/kg body weight (bw) per day was identified for a considerable decrease in the platelet count. For hexaCNs in food, 2317 analytical results were used to estimate dietary exposures across dietary surveys and age groups. The highest exposure ranged from 0.91 to 29.8 pg/kg bw per day in general population and from 220 to 559 pg/kg bw per day for breast-fed infants with the highest consumption of breast milk. Applying a margin of exposure (MOE) approach, the estimated MOEs for the high dietary exposures ranged from 1,700,000 to 55,000,000 for the general population and from 90,000 to 230,000 for breast-fed infants with the highest consumption of breast milk. These MOEs are far above the minimum MOE of 2000 that does not raise a health concern. Taking account of the uncertainties affecting the assessment, the Panel concluded with at least 99% certainty that dietary exposure to hexaCNs does not raise a health concern for any of the population groups considered. Due to major limitations in the available data, no assessment was possible for genotoxic effects or for health risks of PCNs other than hexaCNs.

Commodity risk assessment of Ligustrum ovalifolium and Ligustrum vulgare plants from the UK

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of the evergreen Ligustrum ovalifolium and the semi-evergreen Ligustrum vulgare imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bare root plants and (b) plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. The category (a) 'bare root plants' includes bundles of 1- to 3-year-old bare root whips or transplants and single 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants. The category (b) 'plants in pots' includes bundles of 1- to 2-year-old cell grown plants (only L. vulgare) and 1- to 5-year-old plants in pots. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Bemisia tabaci and Scirtothrips dorsalis, and one pest not regulated in the EU, Diaprepes abbreviatus, fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom considering the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9915 and 10,000 per 10,000 bare root plants and plants in pots will be free from B. tabaci.

Commodity risk assessment of Cornus alba and Cornus sanguinea plants from the UK

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'high risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Cornus alba and Cornus sanguinea bare-root plants and rooted plants in pots up to 7 years old imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Four EU quarantine pests (Meloidogyne fallax, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), tobacco ringspot virus, and tomato ringspot virus) and one EU non-regulated pest (Discula destructiva), were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported C. alba and C. sanguinea plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9823 and 10,000 bare-root C. alba and C. sanguinea plants per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

Commodity risk assessment of Corylus avellana plants from the UK

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Corylus avellana imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of 1- to 2-year old whips or transplants, (b) bundles of 1- to 2-year old cell grown plants, (c) 1- to 7-year old bare root single plants and (d) up to 15-year old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates) and Thaumetopoea processionea fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9939 and 10,000 of the single plants in pots up to 15-year old will be free from P. ramorum (non-EU isolates).

Update of the risk assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in food

The European Commission asked EFSA to update its 2011 risk assessment on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in food, focusing on 10 congeners: BDE-28, -47, -49, -99, -100, -138, -153, -154, -183 and ‑209. The CONTAM Panel concluded that the neurodevelopmental effects on behaviour and reproductive/developmental effects are the critical effects in rodent studies. For four congeners (BDE-47, -99, -153, -209) the Panel derived Reference Points, i.e. benchmark doses and corresponding lower 95% confidence limits (BMDLs), for endpoint-specific benchmark responses. Since repeated exposure to PBDEs results in accumulation of these chemicals in the body, the Panel estimated the body burden at the BMDL in rodents, and the chronic intake that would lead to the same body burden in humans. For the remaining six congeners no studies were available to identify Reference Points. The Panel concluded that there is scientific basis for inclusion of all 10 congeners in a common assessment group and performed a combined risk assessment. The Panel concluded that the combined margin of exposure (MOET) approach was the most appropriate risk metric and applied a tiered approach to the risk characterisation. Over 84,000 analytical results for the 10 congeners in food were used to estimate the exposure across dietary surveys and age groups of the European population. The most important contributors to the chronic dietary Lower Bound exposure to PBDEs were meat and meat products and fish and seafood. Taking into account the uncertainties affecting the assessment, the Panel concluded that it is likely that current dietary exposure to PBDEs in the European population raises a health concern.

Persistence of microbiological hazards in food and feed production and processing environments

Listeria monocytogenes (in the meat, fish and seafood, dairy and fruit and vegetable sectors), Salmonella enterica (in the feed, meat, egg and low moisture food sectors) and Cronobacter sakazakii (in the low moisture food sector) were identified as the bacterial food safety hazards most relevant to public health that are associated with persistence in the food and feed processing environment (FFPE). There is a wide range of subtypes of these hazards involved in persistence in the FFPE. While some specific subtypes are more commonly reported as persistent, it is currently not possible to identify universal markers (i.e. genetic determinants) for this trait. Common risk factors for persistence in the FFPE are inadequate zoning and hygiene barriers; lack of hygienic design of equipment and machines; and inadequate cleaning and disinfection. A well-designed environmental sampling and testing programme is the most effective strategy to identify contamination sources and detect potentially persistent hazards. The establishment of hygienic barriers and measures within the food safety management system, during implementation of hazard analysis and critical control points, is key to prevent and/or control bacterial persistence in the FFPE. Once persistence is suspected in a plant, a 'seek-and-destroy' approach is frequently recommended, including intensified monitoring, the introduction of control measures and the continuation of the intensified monitoring. Successful actions triggered by persistence of L. monocytogenes are described, as well as interventions with direct bactericidal activity. These interventions could be efficient if properly validated, correctly applied and verified under industrial conditions. Perspectives are provided for performing a risk assessment for relevant combinations of hazard and food sector to assess the relative public health risk that can be associated with persistence, based on bottom-up and top-down approaches. Knowledge gaps related to bacterial food safety hazards associated with persistence in the FFPE and priorities for future research are provided.

Commodity risk assessment of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. unrooted cuttings from Guatemala

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both, regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Guatemala. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria, based on the methodology used for high-risk plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Nineteen EU regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, pepper golden mosaic virus, pepper huasteco yellow vein virus, tomato severe leaf curl virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, Bactericera cockerelli, Eotetranichus lewisi, Epitrix subcrinita, Epitrix cucumeris, Helicoverpa zea, Chloridea virescens, Spodoptera ornithogalli, Ralstonia solanacearum, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, Xanthomonas vesicatoria) and one EU non-regulated (Phenacoccus solenopsis) pest fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Guatemala were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors, and an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The limited and partially conflicting information provided in the dossier contributes to the wide estimates of pest freedom. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Ralstonia spp. (R. solanacearum and R. pseudosolanacearum) being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9916 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings per 10,000 would be free of Ralstonia spp.

Critical appraisal tools used in systematic reviews of in vitro cell culture studies: A methodological study

Systematic reviews (SRs) of preclinical studies are marked with poor methodological quality. In vitro studies lack assessment tools to improve the quality of preclinical research. This methodological study aimed to identify, collect, and analyze SRs based on cell culture studies to highlight the current appraisal tools utilized to support the development of a validated critical appraisal tool for cell culture in vitro research. SRs, scoping reviews, and meta-analyses that included cell culture studies and used any type of critical appraisal tool were included. Electronic search, study selection, data collection and methodological quality (MQ) assessment tool were realized. Further, statistical analyses regarding possible associations and correlations between MQ and collected data were performed. After the screening process, 82 studies remained for subsequent analysis. A total of 32 different appraisal tools were identified. Approximately 60% of studies adopted pre-structured tools not designed for cell culture studies. The most frequent instruments were SYRCLE (n = 14), OHAT (n = 9), Cochrane Collaboration's tool (n = 7), GRADE (n = 6), CONSORT (n = 5), and ToxRTool (n = 5). The studies were divided into subgroups to perform statistical analyses. A significant association (OR = 5.00, 95% CI = 1.54-16.20, p = 0.008) was found between low MQ and chronic degenerative disorders as topic of SR. Several challenges in collecting information from the included studies led to some modifications related to the previously registered protocol. These results may serve as a basis for further development of a critical appraisal tool for cell culture studies capable of capturing all the essential factors related to preclinical research, therefore enhancing the practice of evidence-based.

Uncertainty assessment of proarrhythmia predictions derived from multi-level in silico models

In silico methods can be used for an early assessment of arrhythmogenic properties of drug candidates. However, their use for decision-making is conditioned by the possibility to estimate the predictions' uncertainty. This work describes our efforts to develop uncertainty quantification methods for the predictions produced by multi-level proarrhythmia models. In silico models used in this field usually start with experimental or predicted IC50 values that describe drug-induced ion channel blockade. Using such inputs, an electrophysiological model computes how the ion channel inhibition, exerted by a drug in a certain concentration, translates to an altered shape and duration of the action potential in cardiac cells, which can be represented as arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers such as the APD90. Using this framework, we identify the main sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and propose a method based on probabilistic simulations that replaces single-point estimates predicted using multiple input values, including the IC50s and the electrophysiological parameters, by distributions of values. Two selected variability types associated with these inputs are then propagated through the multi-level model to estimate their impact on the uncertainty levels in the output, expressed by means of intervals. The proposed approach yields single predictions of arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers together with value intervals, providing a more comprehensive and realistic description of drug effects on a human population. The methodology was tested by predicting arrhythmogenic biomarkers on a series of twelve well-characterised marketed drugs, belonging to different arrhythmogenic risk classes.

Commodity risk assessment of Acer pseudoplatanus plants from the UK

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Acer pseudoplatanus imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants for planting, (b) 1- to 7-year-old plants in pots and (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old whips and seedlings, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Six EU quarantine pests and four pests not regulated in the EU fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For the selected pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Meloidogyne mali or M. fallax being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that 9,792 or more plants in pots per 10,000 will be free from Meloidogyne mali or M. fallax.

Commodity risk assessment of Acer platanoides plants from the UK

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Acer platanoides imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants for planting, (b) 1- to 7-year-old plants in pots and (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old whips and seedlings, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Six EU quarantine pests and four pests not regulated in the EU fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Meloidogyne mali or M. fallax being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that 9,792 or more plants in pots per 10,000 will be free from Meloidogyne mali or M. fallax.

Commodity risk assessment of Fagus sylvatica plants from the UK

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Fagus sylvatica imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants for planting, (b) < 1- to 15-year-old plants in pots and (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old whips and seedlings, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates) and Thaumetopoea processionea, and two pests not regulated in the EU, Meloidogyne mali and Phytophthora kernoviae, fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with M. mali being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,793 and 10,000 plants in pots up to 15 years old per 10,000 will be free from M. mali.

Commodity risk assessment of Acer campestre plants from the UK

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Acer campestre imported from the UK as: (a) 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants for planting, (b) 1- to 15-year-old plants in pots and (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old whips and seedlings, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Six EU quarantine pests and four pests not regulated in the EU fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Phytophthora ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that 9,757 or more 1- to 15-year-old plants in pots per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

Commodity risk assessment of Malus sylvestris plants from United Kingdom

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by rooted plants and bundles of bare root plants or rooted cell grown young plants of Malus sylvestris imported from the UK, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two quarantine pests (tobacco ringspot virus and tomato ringspot virus), one protected zone quarantine pest (Erwinia amylovora) and four non-regulated pests (Colletotrichum aenigma, Meloidogyne mali, Eulecanium excrescens and Takahashia japonica) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For Erwinia amylovora, special requirements are specified in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Based on the information provided in the dossier, these specific requirements for E. amylovora are met. For the remaining six pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical Dossier from the UK were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with scales (Eulecanium excrescens and Takahashia japonica) being the pests most frequently expected on the imported bundles of bare root plants or rooted cell grown young plants. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,976 and 10,000 bundles (one bundle consisting of 5-15 plants for bare root plants or 25-50 plants for cell grown young plants) per 10,000 would be free from the above-mentioned scales.

Welfare of ducks, geese and quail on farm

This Scientific Opinion concerns the welfare of Domestic ducks (Anas platyrhynchos domesticus), Muscovy ducks (Cairina moschata domesticus) and their hybrids (Mule ducks), Domestic geese (Anser anser f. domesticus) and Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) in relation to the rearing of breeders, birds for meat, Muscovy and Mule ducks and Domestic geese for foie gras and layer Japanese quail for egg production. The most common husbandry systems (HSs) in the European Union are described for each animal species and category. The following welfare consequences are described and assessed for each species: restriction of movement, injuries (bone lesions including fractures and dislocations, soft tissue lesions and integument damage and locomotory disorders including lameness), group stress, inability to perform comfort behaviour, inability to perform exploratory or foraging behaviour and inability to express maternal behaviour (related to prelaying and nesting behaviours). Animal-based measures relevant for the assessment of these welfare consequences were identified and described. The relevant hazards leading to the welfare consequences in the different HSs were identified. Specific factors such as space allowance (including minimum enclosure area and height) per bird, group size, floor quality, characteristics of nesting facilities and enrichment provided (including access to water to fulfil biological needs) were assessed in relation to the welfare consequences and, recommendations on how to prevent the welfare consequences were provided in a quantitative or qualitative way.

Re-evaluation of the risks to public health related to the presence of bisphenol A (BPA) in foodstuffs

In 2015, EFSA established a temporary tolerable daily intake (t-TDI) for BPA of 4 μg/kg body weight (bw) per day. In 2016, the European Commission mandated EFSA to re-evaluate the risks to public health from the presence of BPA in foodstuffs and to establish a tolerable daily intake (TDI). For this re-evaluation, a pre-established protocol was used that had undergone public consultation. The CEP Panel concluded that it is Unlikely to Very Unlikely that BPA presents a genotoxic hazard through a direct mechanism. Taking into consideration the evidence from animal data and support from human observational studies, the immune system was identified as most sensitive to BPA exposure. An effect on Th17 cells in mice was identified as the critical effect; these cells are pivotal in cellular immune mechanisms and involved in the development of inflammatory conditions, including autoimmunity and lung inflammation. A reference point (RP) of 8.2 ng/kg bw per day, expressed as human equivalent dose, was identified for the critical effect. Uncertainty analysis assessed a probability of 57-73% that the lowest estimated Benchmark Dose (BMD) for other health effects was below the RP based on Th17 cells. In view of this, the CEP Panel judged that an additional uncertainty factor (UF) of 2 was needed for establishing the TDI. Applying an overall UF of 50 to the RP, a TDI of 0.2 ng BPA/kg bw per day was established. Comparison of this TDI with the dietary exposure estimates from the 2015 EFSA opinion showed that both the mean and the 95th percentile dietary exposures in all age groups exceeded the TDI by two to three orders of magnitude. Even considering the uncertainty in the exposure assessment, the exceedance being so large, the CEP Panel concluded that there is a health concern from dietary BPA exposure.

Welfare of broilers on farm

This Scientific Opinion considers the welfare of domestic fowl (Gallus gallus) related to the production of meat (broilers) and includes the keeping of day-old chicks, broiler breeders, and broiler chickens. Currently used husbandry systems in the EU are described. Overall, 19 highly relevant welfare consequences (WCs) were identified based on severity, duration and frequency of occurrence: 'bone lesions', 'cold stress', 'gastro-enteric disorders', 'group stress', 'handling stress', 'heat stress', 'isolation stress', 'inability to perform comfort behaviour', 'inability to perform exploratory or foraging behaviour', 'inability to avoid unwanted sexual behaviour', 'locomotory disorders', 'prolonged hunger', 'prolonged thirst', 'predation stress', 'restriction of movement', 'resting problems', 'sensory under- and overstimulation', 'soft tissue and integument damage' and 'umbilical disorders'. These WCs and their animal-based measures (ABMs) that can identify them are described in detail. A variety of hazards related to the different husbandry systems were identified as well as ABMs for assessing the different WCs. Measures to prevent or correct the hazards and/or mitigate each of the WCs are listed. Recommendations are provided on quantitative or qualitative criteria to answer specific questions on the welfare of broilers and related to genetic selection, temperature, feed and water restriction, use of cages, light, air quality and mutilations in breeders such as beak trimming, de-toeing and comb dubbing. In addition, minimal requirements (e.g. stocking density, group size, nests, provision of litter, perches and platforms, drinkers and feeders, of covered veranda and outdoor range) for an enclosure for keeping broiler chickens (fast-growing, slower-growing and broiler breeders) are recommended. Finally, 'total mortality', 'wounds', 'carcass condemnation' and 'footpad dermatitis' are proposed as indicators for monitoring at slaughter the welfare of broilers on-farm.

Re-evaluation of the existing health-based guidance values for copper and exposure assessment from all sources

Copper is an essential micronutrient and also a regulated product used in organic and in conventional farming pest management. Both deficiency and excessive exposure to copper can have adverse health effects. In this Scientific Opinion, the EFSA 2021 harmonised approach for establishing health-based guidance values (HBGVs) for substances that are regulated products and also nutrients was used to resolve the divergent existing HBGVs for copper. The tightly regulated homeostasis prevents toxicity manifestation in the short term, but the development of chronic copper toxicity is dependent on copper homeostasis and its tissue retention. Evidence from Wilson disease suggests that hepatic retention is indicative of potential future and possibly sudden onset of copper toxicity under conditions of continuous intake. Hence, emphasis was placed on copper retention as an early marker of potential adverse effects. The relationships between (a) chronic copper exposure and its retention in the body, particularly the liver, and (b) hepatic copper concentrations and evidence of toxicity were examined. The Scientific Committee (SC) concludes that no retention of copper is expected to occur with intake of 5 mg/day and established an Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 0.07 mg/kg bw. A refined dietary exposure assessment was performed, assessing contribution from dietary and non-dietary sources. Background copper levels are a significant source of copper. The contribution of copper from its use as plant protection product (PPP), food and feed additives or fertilisers is negligible. The use of copper in fertilisers or PPPs contributes to copper accumulation in soil. Infant formula and follow-on formula are important contributors to dietary exposure of copper in infants and toddlers. Contribution from non-oral sources is negligible. Dietary exposure to total copper does not exceed the HBGV in adolescents, adults, elderly and the very elderly. Neither hepatic copper retention nor adverse effects are expected to occur from the estimated copper exposure in children due to higher nutrient requirements related to growth.

Retrospective cumulative dietary risk assessment of craniofacial alterations by residues of pesticides

EFSA established cumulative assessment groups and conducted retrospective cumulative risk assessments for two types of craniofacial alterations (alterations due to abnormal skeletal development, head soft tissue alterations and brain neural tube defects) for 14 European populations of women in childbearing age. Cumulative acute exposure calculations were performed by probabilistic modelling using monitoring data collected by Member States in 2017, 2018 and 2019. A rigorous uncertainty analysis was performed using expert knowledge elicitation. Considering all sources of uncertainty, their dependencies and differences between populations, it was concluded with varying degrees of certainty that the MOET resulting from cumulative exposure is above 100 for the two types of craniofacial alterations. The threshold for regulatory consideration established by risk managers is therefore not exceeded. Considering the severity of the effects under consideration, it was also assessed whether the MOET is above 500. This was the case with varying levels of certainty for the head soft tissue alterations and brain neural tube defects. However, for the alterations due to abnormal skeletal development, it was found about as likely as not that the MOET is above 500 in most populations. For two populations, it was even found more likely that the MOET is below 500. These results were discussed in the light of the conservatism of the methodological approach.

Transmission of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) during animal transport

The transmission of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) between food-producing animals (poultry, cattle and pigs) during short journeys (< 8 h) and long journeys (> 8 h) directed to other farms or to the slaughterhouse lairage (directly or with intermediate stops at assembly centres or control posts, mainly transported by road) was assessed. Among the identified risk factors contributing to the probability of transmission of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria (ARB) and antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs), the ones considered more important are the resistance status (presence of ARB/ARGs) of the animals pre-transport, increased faecal shedding, hygiene of the areas and vehicles, exposure to other animals carrying and/or shedding ARB/ARGs (especially between animals of different AMR loads and/or ARB/ARG types), exposure to contaminated lairage areas and duration of transport. There are nevertheless no data whereby differences between journeys shorter or longer than 8 h can be assessed. Strategies that would reduce the probability of AMR transmission, for all animal categories include minimising the duration of transport, proper cleaning and disinfection, appropriate transport planning, organising the transport in relation to AMR criteria (transport logistics), improving animal health and welfare and/or biosecurity immediately prior to and during transport, ensuring the thermal comfort of the animals and animal segregation. Most of the aforementioned measures have similar validity if applied at lairage, assembly centres and control posts. Data gaps relating to the risk factors and the effectiveness of mitigation measures have been identified, with consequent research needs in both the short and longer term listed. Quantification of the impact of animal transportation compared to the contribution of other stages of the food-production chain, and the interplay of duration with all risk factors on the transmission of ARB/ARGs during transport and journey breaks, were identified as urgent research needs.

Welfare of equidae during transport

In the framework of its Farm to Fork Strategy, the Commission is undertaking a comprehensive evaluation of animal welfare legislation. This opinion deals with the protection of horses and donkeys during transport. While the opinion focuses primarily on road transport of horses, there are specific sections dealing with the transport of horses on roll-on-roll-off ferries, horses transported by air and the transport of donkeys. In addition, the opinion covers welfare concerns in relation to a specific scenario identified by the European Commission related to the transport of horses on long journeys to slaughterhouses. Current practices related to transport of horses during the different stages (preparation, loading and unloading, transit and the journey breaks) are described. Overall, 13 welfare consequences were identified as being highly relevant for the welfare of horses during transport based on severity, duration and frequency of occurrence: gastro-enteric disorders, handling stress, heat stress, injuries, isolation stress, motion stress, prolonged hunger, prolonged thirst, respiratory disorders, resting problems, restriction of movement, sensory overstimulation and separation stress. These welfare consequences and their animal-based measures are described. A variety of hazards were identified related to factors such as inexperienced/untrained handlers, lack of horse training, structural deficiencies of vehicles/facilities, poor driving skills/conditions, horse separation/regrouping, unfavourable microclimatic and environmental conditions and poor husbandry practices. The opinion contains general and specific conclusions in relation to the different stages of transport. Recommendations to prevent hazards and correct or mitigate welfare consequences have been developed. Recommendations were also developed to define quantitative thresholds for microclimatic conditions within the means of transport and for space allowance. The development of welfare consequences over time was assessed in relation to maximum journey time.

Welfare of cattle during transport

In the framework of its Farm to Fork Strategy, the Commission is undertaking a comprehensive evaluation of the animal welfare legislation. The present Opinion deals with protection of cattle (including calves) during transport. Welfare of cattle during transport by road is the main focus, but other means of transport are also covered. Current practices related to transport of cattle during the different stages (preparation, loading/unloading, transit and journey breaks) are described. Overall, 11 welfare consequences were identified as being highly relevant for the welfare of cattle during transport based on severity, duration and frequency of occurrence: group stress, handling stress, heat stress, injuries, motion stress, prolonged hunger, prolonged thirst, respiratory disorders, restriction of movement, resting problems and sensory overstimulation. These welfare consequences and their animal-based measures are described. A variety of hazards, mainly relating to inexperienced/untrained handlers, inappropriate handling, structural deficiencies of vehicles and facilities, poor driving conditions, unfavourable microclimatic and environmental conditions, and poor husbandry practices leading to these welfare consequences were identified. The Opinion contains general and specific conclusions relating to the different stages of transport for cattle. Recommendations to prevent hazards and to correct or mitigate welfare consequences have been developed. Recommendations were also developed to define quantitative thresholds for microclimatic conditions within the means of transport and spatial thresholds (minimum space allowance). The development of welfare consequences over time was assessed in relation to maximum journey duration. The Opinion covers specific animal transport scenarios identified by the European Commission relating to transport of unweaned calves, cull cows, the export of cattle by livestock vessels, the export of cattle by road, roll-on-roll-off ferries and 'special health status animals', and lists welfare concerns associated with these.

Welfare of pigs during transport

In the framework of its Farm to Fork Strategy, the Commission is undertaking a comprehensive evaluation of the animal welfare legislation. The present Opinion deals with protection of pigs during transport. The welfare of pigs during transport by road is the main focus, but other means of transport are also covered. Current practices related to transport of pigs during the different stages (preparation, loading/unloading, transit and journey breaks) are described. Overall, 10 welfare consequences were identified as highly relevant for the welfare of pigs during transport based on the severity, duration and frequency of occurrence: group stress, handling stress, heat stress, injuries, motion stress, prolonged hunger, prolonged thirst, restriction of movement, resting problems and sensory overstimulation. These welfare consequences and their animal‐based measures are described. A variety of hazards were identified, mainly relating to factors such as mixing of unfamiliar pigs, inappropriate handling methods and devices, the use of pick‐up pens, inexperienced/untrained handlers, structural deficiencies of vehicles and facilities, poor driving conditions, unfavourable microclimatic and environmental conditions and poor husbandry practices leading to these welfare consequences. The Opinion contains general and specific conclusions relating to the different stages of transport of pigs. Recommendations to prevent hazards and to correct or mitigate welfare consequences are made. Recommendations were also developed to define quantitative thresholds for microclimatic conditions and minimum space allowance within means of transport. The development of the welfare consequences over time was assessed in relation to maximum journey duration. The Opinion covers specific animal transport scenarios identified by the European Commission relating to transport of cull sows and ‘special health status animals’, and lists welfare concerns associated with these.

Welfare of small ruminants during transport

In the framework of its Farm to Fork Strategy, the Commission is undertaking a comprehensive evaluation of animal welfare legislation. The present Opinion deals with the protection of small ruminants (sheep and goats) during transport. The main focus is on welfare of sheep during transport by road but other means of transport and concerns for welfare of goats during transport are also covered. Current practices related to transport of sheep during the different stages (preparation, loading and unloading, transit and journey breaks) are described. Overall, 11 welfare consequences were identified as being highly relevant for the welfare of sheep during transport based on severity, duration and frequency of occurrence: group stress, handling stress, heat stress, injuries, motion stress, predation stress, prolonged hunger, prolonged thirst, restriction of movement, resting problems and sensory overstimulation. These welfare consequences and their animal-based measures are described. A wide variety of hazards, mainly relating to inappropriate or aggressive handling of animals, structural deficiencies of vehicles and facilities, unfavourable microclimatic and environmental conditions and poor husbandry practices, leading to these welfare consequences were identified. The Opinion contains general and specific conclusions in relation to the different stages of transport. Recommendations to prevent hazards and to correct or mitigate welfare consequences have been developed. Recommendations were also developed to define quantitative thresholds for microclimatic conditions within the means of transport and spatial thresholds (minimum space allowance). The development of welfare consequences over time were assessed in relation to maximum journey time. The Opinion covers specific animal transport scenarios identified by the European Commission relating to the export of sheep by livestock vessels, export of sheep by road, roll-on-roll-off vessels and 'special health status animals', and lists welfare concerns associated with these.

Welfare of domestic birds and rabbits transported in containers

This opinion, produced upon a request from the European Commission, focuses on transport of domestic birds and rabbits in containers (e.g. any crate, box, receptacle or other rigid structure used for the transport of animals, but not the means of transport itself). It describes and assesses current transport practices in the EU, based on data from literature, Member States and expert opinion. The species and categories of domestic birds assessed were mainly chickens for meat (broilers), end-of-lay hens and day-old chicks. They included to a lesser extent pullets, turkeys, ducks, geese, quails and game birds, due to limited scientific evidence. The opinion focuses on road transport to slaughterhouses or to production sites. For day-old chicks, air transport is also addressed. The relevant stages of transport considered are preparation, loading, journey, arrival and uncrating. Welfare consequences associated with current transport practices were identified for each stage. For loading and uncrating, the highly relevant welfare consequences identified are handling stress, injuries, restriction of movement and sensory overstimulation. For the journey and arrival, injuries, restriction of movement, sensory overstimulation, motion stress, heat stress, cold stress, prolonged hunger and prolonged thirst are identified as highly relevant. For each welfare consequence, animal-based measures (ABMs) and hazards were identified and assessed, and both preventive and corrective or mitigative measures proposed. Recommendations on quantitative criteria to prevent or mitigate welfare consequences are provided for microclimatic conditions, space allowances and journey times for all categories of animals, where scientific evidence and expert opinion support such outcomes.

Assessment of the control measures of the Category A diseases of the Animal Health Law: prohibitions in restricted zones and risk-mitigating treatments for products of animal origin and other materials

EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the effectiveness of prohibitions of certain activities in restricted zones, and of certain risk mitigation treatments for products of animal origin and other materials with respect to diseases included in the Category A list in the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) 2016/429). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where other disease-specific control measures have been assessed. In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of (i) prohibiting the movements of certain products, notably germinal products (semen, oocytes, embryos and hatching eggs), products of animal origin and animal by-products and feed of plant origin, hay and straw, and (ii) risk mitigation treatments for products of animal origin. In terms of semen, oocytes, embryos and hatching eggs, it was agreed that there was a lack of evidence particularly for embryos and oocytes reflected in a varying degree of uncertainty, whether these commodities could potentially contain the pathogen under consideration. The scenario assessed did not consider whether the presence of pathogen would lead to infection in the recipient animal. In terms of animal products, certain animal by-products and movement of feed of plant origin and straw, the assessment considered the ability of the commodity to transmit disease to another animal if exposed. For most pathogens, products were to some degree considered a risk, but lack of field evidence contributed to the uncertainty, particularly as potential exposure of ruminants to meat products is concerned. In terms of the risk mitigating treatments, recommendations have been made for several of these treatments, because the treatment description is not complete, the evidence is poor or inconclusive, or the evidence points to the treatment being ineffective.

Welfare of pigs on farm

This scientific opinion focuses on the welfare of pigs on farm, and is based on literature and expert opinion. All pig categories were assessed: gilts and dry sows, farrowing and lactating sows, suckling piglets, weaners, rearing pigs and boars. The most relevant husbandry systems used in Europe are described. For each system, highly relevant welfare consequences were identified, as well as related animal-based measures (ABMs), and hazards leading to the welfare consequences. Moreover, measures to prevent or correct the hazards and/or mitigate the welfare consequences are recommended. Recommendations are also provided on quantitative or qualitative criteria to answer specific questions on the welfare of pigs related to tail biting and related to the European Citizen's Initiative 'End the Cage Age'. For example, the AHAW Panel recommends how to mitigate group stress when dry sows and gilts are grouped immediately after weaning or in early pregnancy. Results of a comparative qualitative assessment suggested that long-stemmed or long-cut straw, hay or haylage is the most suitable material for nest-building. A period of time will be needed for staff and animals to adapt to housing lactating sows and their piglets in farrowing pens (as opposed to crates) before achieving stable welfare outcomes. The panel recommends a minimum available space to the lactating sow to ensure piglet welfare (measured by live-born piglet mortality). Among the main risk factors for tail biting are space allowance, types of flooring, air quality, health status and diet composition, while weaning age was not associated directly with tail biting in later life. The relationship between the availability of space and growth rate, lying behaviour and tail biting in rearing pigs is quantified and presented. Finally, the panel suggests a set of ABMs to use at slaughter for monitoring on-farm welfare of cull sows and rearing pigs.

An Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) For Evaluating the Risk of Import Pathways for the Establishment of Invasive Species

An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is understanding the pathways by which they arrive. Evaluating the risks of these pathways requires use of data from multiple sources, which frequently are uncertain. To address the needs of agencies responsible for biosecurity operations, we present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked models which describe pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, initial dispersal into the environment, habitat suitability, probabilities of establishment and spread, and the consequences of these invasions. Bayesian networks (BN) are used extensively to model these processes. The model includes dynamic BN components and geographic data, resulting in distributions of output parameters over spatial and temporal axes. IBRAM is supported by a web-based tool that allows users to run the model on real-world pest examples and investigate the impact of alternative risk management scenarios, to explore the effect of various interventions and resource allocations. Two case studies are provided as examples of how IBRAM may be used: Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are unwanted organisms with the potential to invade Aotearoa New Zealand, and IBRAM has been influential in evaluating the efficacy of pathway management to mitigate the risk of their establishment in the country.

Commodity risk assessment of Prunus domestica plants from Ukraine

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Prunus domestica grafted on Prunus cerasifera imported from Ukraine, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by Ukraine. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. One quarantine pest (Lopholeucaspis japonica), two protected zone quarantine pests (Erwinia amylovora and Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni) and one non-regulated pest (Eotetranychus prunicola) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For these four pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Ukraine were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For the selected pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,870 and 10,000 bundles (consisting of 10 plants each) per 10,000 would be free from Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni.

Commodity risk assessment of Berberis thunbergii potted plants from Turkey

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High-risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by potted plants (2-3 years old) of Berberis thunbergii produced in nurseries and imported into the EU from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the NPPO of Turkey. The relevance of any pest for this Opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria. Two species, the EU-quarantine pest Bemisia tabaci and the non-regulated pest Malacosoma parallela, fulfilled the relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,928 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of B. tabaci. The role of Berberis thunbergii as possible host of Puccinia spp. is discussed in the body of the opinion.

Commodity risk assessment of Jasminum polyanthum unrooted cuttings from Uganda

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation EU/2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by unrooted cuttings of Jasminum polyanthum that are imported from Uganda, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the NPPO of Uganda. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria. Six species, two EU‐regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, non‐European populations and Scirtothrips dorsalis) and four EU non‐regulated pests (Coccus viridis, Diaphania indica, Pulvinaria psidii and Selenaspidus articulatus), fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Uganda were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci and S. dorsalis being the pests most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,950 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of B. tabaci.

Commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Turkey

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by dormant grafted plants, rootstocks, budwood and scions of Malus domestica imported from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by Turkey. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Three quarantine pests (Anoplophora chinensis, Lopholeucaspis japonica and tomato ringspot virus), one protected zone quarantine pest (Erwinia amylovora) and eight non-regulated pests (Calepitrimerus baileyi, Cenopalpus irani, Cicadatra persica, Diplodia bulgarica, Hoplolaimus galeatus, Malacosoma parallela, Pratylenchus loosi and Pyrolachnus pyri) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For E. amylovora, special requirements are specified in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Based on the information provided in the dossier, the specific requirements for E. amylovora were not met. For Anoplophora chinensis, special measures are specified in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2012/138. The exporting country does meet the requirement for a certificate regarding plants for planting that originate from Turkish provinces other than Istanbul. For the 10 remaining selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For the selected pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with D. bulgarica being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,863 and 10,000 bundles (consisting of 10 or 25 plants each) per 10,000 would be free from D. bulgarica.

Commodity risk assessment of Acer palmatum plants grafted on Acer davidii from China

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by 2‐year‐old bare rooted plants for planting of Acer palmatum grafted on rootstocks of Acer davidii imported from China to the EU, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by China. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this Scientific Opinion. Twenty‐two pests that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For 20 pests, the risk mitigation measures described in the technical dossier from China were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. While the estimated degree of pest freedom varied among pests, Lopholeucaspis japonica was the pest most frequently expected on the commodity. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that 9,336 or more bare rooted plants per 10,000 will be free from L. japonica. For Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis, the Panel considers that China applies the relevant measures as specified in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2012/138 and Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2015/893.

Guidance on good practice in conducting scientific assessments in animal health using modelling

The EFSA asked the Panel on Animal Health and Welfare to develop a guidance document on good practice in conducting scientific assessments in animal health using modelling. In previous opinions, the AHAW Panel has responded to two‐thirds of animal health‐related mandates using some kind of modelling. These models range from simple to complex, employing a combination of scientific, economic, socio‐economic or other types of data. Hence, there is strong interest in the development of a guidance document to integrate modelling efforts into the routine process of EFSA working groups. In this document, an ‘operating procedure' (OP) for the use of modelling within an AH working group is presented. The OP provides a detailed flowchart enabling modelling to be transparently and consistently integrated in the assessment. The OP is structured into phases. These phases combine the relevant standard operating procedures and working instructions of EFSA with the modelling process. Each phase includes roles and actions to be taken, expected output and the sequence of agreements that need to be made between all partners in the scientific assessment. In conclusion, it is expected that adherence to the OP will improve transparency of models in EFSA outputs, and it is recommended to adopt it as a standard procedure when responding to AHAW mandates.

A Systematic Review of Atypical Endometriosis-Associated Biomarkers

Ovarian endometriosis may increase the risk of malignancy. Several studies have suggested atypical endometriosis as the direct precursor of endometriosis-associated ovarian cancer. We performed an advanced, systematic search of the online medical databases PubMed and Medline. The search revealed n = 40 studies eligible for inclusion in this systematic review. Of these, n = 39 were finally included. The results from included studies are characterized by high heterogeneity, but some consistency has been found for altered expression in phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/AKT/mTOR pathway, ARID1a, estrogen and progesterone receptors, transcriptional, nuclear, and growth factors in atypical endometriosis. Although many targets have been proposed as biomarkers for the presence of atypical endometriosis, none of them has such strong evidence to justify their systematic use in clinical practice, and they all need expensive molecular analyses. Further well-designed studies are needed to validate the evidence on available biomarkers and to investigate novel serum markers for atypical endometriosis.

Commodity risk assessment of grafted plants of Malus domestica from Moldova

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as ‘High risk plants, plant products and other objects’. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by defoliated and in dormant phase, grafted bare rooted plants for planting of Malus domestica imported from Moldova, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country. A list of 1,118 pests potentially associated with the commodity species was compiled. The relevance of these pests was assessed following defined criteria and based on evidence. The EU‐quarantine pest Xiphinema rivesi non‐EU populations fulfilled these criteria and was selected for further evaluation. For this pest, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Moldova were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For this pest, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on it, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,991 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of X. rivesi.

The efficacy and safety of high-pressure processing of food

High-pressure processing (HPP) is a non-thermal treatment in which, for microbial inactivation, foods are subjected to isostatic pressures (P) of 400-600 MPa with common holding times (t) from 1.5 to 6 min. The main factors that influence the efficacy (log10 reduction of vegetative microorganisms) of HPP when applied to foodstuffs are intrinsic (e.g. water activity and pH), extrinsic (P and t) and microorganism-related (type, taxonomic unit, strain and physiological state). It was concluded that HPP of food will not present any additional microbial or chemical food safety concerns when compared to other routinely applied treatments (e.g. pasteurisation). Pathogen reductions in milk/colostrum caused by the current HPP conditions applied by the industry are lower than those achieved by the legal requirements for thermal pasteurisation. However, HPP minimum requirements (P/t combinations) could be identified to achieve specific log10 reductions of relevant hazards based on performance criteria (PC) proposed by international standard agencies (5-8 log10 reductions). The most stringent HPP conditions used industrially (600 MPa, 6 min) would achieve the above-mentioned PC, except for Staphylococcus aureus. Alkaline phosphatase (ALP), the endogenous milk enzyme that is widely used to verify adequate thermal pasteurisation of cows' milk, is relatively pressure resistant and its use would be limited to that of an overprocessing indicator. Current data are not robust enough to support the proposal of an appropriate indicator to verify the efficacy of HPP under the current HPP conditions applied by the industry. Minimum HPP requirements to reduce Listeria monocytogenes levels by specific log10 reductions could be identified when HPP is applied to ready-to-eat (RTE) cooked meat products, but not for other types of RTE foods. These identified minimum requirements would result in the inactivation of other relevant pathogens (Salmonella and Escherichia coli) in these RTE foods to a similar or higher extent.

A suggestion for the quantification of precise and bounded probability to quantify epistemic uncertainty in scientific assessments

An honest communication of uncertainty about quantities of interest enhances transparency in scientific assessments. To support this communication, risk assessors should choose appropriate ways to evaluate and characterize epistemic uncertainty. A full treatment of uncertainty requires methods that distinguish aleatory from epistemic uncertainty. Quantitative expressions for epistemic uncertainty are advantageous in scientific assessments because they are nonambiguous and enable individual uncertainties to be characterized and combined in a systematic way. Since 2019, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommends assessors to express epistemic uncertainty in conclusions of scientific assessments quantitatively by subjective probability. A subjective probability can be used to represent an expert judgment, which may or may not be updated using Bayes's rule to integrate evidence available for the assessment and could be either precise or approximate. Approximate (or bounded) probabilities may be enough for decision making and allow experts to reach agreement on certainty when they struggle to specify precise subjective probabilities. The difference between the lower and upper bound on a subjective probability can also be used to reflect someone's strength of knowledge. In this article, we demonstrate how to quantify uncertainty by bounded probability, and explicitly distinguish between epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, by means of robust Bayesian analysis, including standard Bayesian analysis through precise probability as a special case. For illustration, the two analyses are applied to an intake assessment.

Commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on Pinus thunbergii

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver a scientific opinion on the risk posed by bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on Pinus thunbergii taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by China. All pests associated with P. parviflora and/or P. thunbergii were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this Scientific Opinion. Forty-three pests that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For 24 pests that are not quarantine in the EU, the risk mitigation measures described in the technical dossier from China were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. While the estimated degree of pest freedom varied among pests, Setoptus parviflorae was the pest most frequently expected on the commodity. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that 9,114 or more bonsai plants per 10,000 will be free from Setoptus parviflorae. For 19 pests that are quarantine in the EU, the implementation of specific measures defined in point 30 and 31 of Annex VII of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072 was evaluated. The requirements of point 31 are met, whereas those of point 30 are not completely fulfilled.

Treatment of Chronic Ankle Instability in the Military Population: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

The high incidence of ankle sprain within the military sets the stage for prevalent chronic ankle instability. The purpose of this review was to compare and evaluate chronic ankle instability treatment strategies in the military population.

METHODS

Electronic databases were systematically searched in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews guidelines for English-language, human studies with a military patient population that had been diagnosed with and treated for chronic ankle instability. Exclusion criteria were animal, cadaver, and review studies and case reports.

RESULTS

Eight studies met the inclusion criteria, representing 695 military service members-625 males (89.9%) and 70 females (10.1%)-and 4 treatment strategies: Broström-related procedures, modified Watson-Jones procedure, Colville's technique, and anatomic lateral ligament reconstruction using semitendinosus tendon allograft. The percentage of satisfactory outcomes was 100% for Colville's technique, and ranged from 73.2% to 94.7% for Broström-related procedures and 72% to 80% for the modified Watson-Jones procedure. Mean American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society scores, anterior drawer displacement, talar tilt, and visual analogue scale scores were also reported.

CONCLUSION

This review demonstrates that the Bröstrom procedure has consistently satisfactory outcomes within the military population, and Colville's technique is another promising option for this patient population but would require additional studies to support this claim.

LEVELS OF EVIDENCE

Level IV.

Commodity risk assessment of specified species of Lonicera potted plants from Turkey

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High-risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by potted plants (2-4 years old) of specified Lonicera species produced in nurseries and that are imported from Turkey, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the NPPO of Turkey. The relevance of any pest for this Opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria listed in Section 4.1. Three species, the EU-quarantine pests Lopholeucaspis japonica and Meloidogyne chitwoodi and the protected zone quarantine pest Bemisia tabaci, fulfilled these criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Turkey were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci on evergreen species of Lonicera spp. being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9,293 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free of B. tabaci.

Guidance for establishing and applying tolerable upper intake levels for vitamins and essential minerals: Draft for internal testing

Vitamins and essential minerals are micronutrients that are essential for the normal functioning of the human body. However, they may lead to adverse health effects if consumed in excess. The concept of a tolerable upper intake level (UL) is a science-based reference value, which was introduced to support policy-makers and other relevant actors in managing the risks of excess nutrient intake. EFSA's principles for establishing ULs for vitamins and minerals were originally developed by the Scientific Committee on Food in 2000. Since then, experience has been gained and the scientific field developed. This guidance from the EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens provides an updated framework to support EFSA's UL assessments. It covers aspects related to the planning of the risk assessment (problem formulation and definition of methods) and its implementation (evidence retrieval, appraisal, synthesis, integration, uncertainty analysis). As in the previous framework, the general principles developed for the risk assessment of chemicals in food are applied (hazard identification, hazard characterisation, intake assessment, risk characterisation). Peculiar to nutrients are their biochemical and physiological roles and the specific and selective mechanisms that maintain the systemic homoeostasis and body burden of the nutrient. These must be considered when conducting a risk assessment of nutrients. This document constitutes a draft guidance that will be applied in EFSA's assessments during a 1-year pilot phase and be revised and complemented as necessary. Before finalisation of the guidance, a public consultation will be launched.

Inactivation of indicator microorganisms and biological hazards by standard and/or alternative processing methods in Category 2 and 3 animal by-products and derived products to be used as organic fertilisers and/or soil improvers

The European Commission requested EFSA to assess if different thermal processes achieve a 5 log10 reduction in Enterococcus faecalis or Salmonella Senftenberg (775W) and (if relevant) a 3 log10 reduction in thermoresistant viruses (e.g. Parvovirus) as well as if different chemical processes achieve a 3 log10 reduction of eggs of Ascaris sp., in eight groups of Category 2 and 3 derived products and animal by-products (ABP). These included (1) ash derived from incineration, co-incineration and combustion; (2) glycerine derived from the production of biodiesel and renewable fuels; (3) other materials derived from the production of biodiesel and renewable fuels; (4) hides and skins; (5) wool and hair; (6) feathers and down; (7) pig bristles; and (8) horns, horn products, hooves and hoof products. Data on the presence of viral hazards and on thermal and chemical inactivation of the targeted indicator microorganisms and biological hazards under relevant processing conditions were extracted via extensive literature searches. The evidence was assessed via expert knowledge elicitation. The certainty that the required log10 reductions in the most resistant indicator microorganisms or biological hazards will be achieved for each of the eight groups of materials mentioned above by the thermal and/or chemical processes was (1) 99-100% for the two processes assessed; (2) 98-100% in Category 2 ABP, at least 90-99% in Category 3 ABP; (3) 90-99% in Category 2 ABP; at least 66-90% in Category 3 ABP; (4) 10-66% and 33-66%; (5) 1-33% and 10-50%; (6) 66-90%; (7) 33-66% and 50-95%; (8) 66-95%, respectively. Data generation on the occurrence and reduction of biological hazards by thermal and/or chemical methods in these materials and on the characterisation of the usage pathways of ABP as organic fertilisers/soil improvers is recommended.

Guidance Document on Scientific criteria for grouping chemicals into assessment groups for human risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals

This guidance document provides harmonised and flexible methodologies to apply scientific criteria and prioritisation methods for grouping chemicals into assessment groups for human risk assessment of combined exposure to multiple chemicals. In the context of EFSA's risk assessments, the problem formulation step defines the chemicals to be assessed in the terms of reference usually through regulatory criteria often set by risk managers based on legislative requirements. Scientific criteria such as hazard-driven criteria can be used to group these chemicals into assessment groups. In this guidance document, a framework is proposed to apply hazard-driven criteria for grouping of chemicals into assessment groups using mechanistic information on toxicity as the gold standard where available (i.e. common mode of action or adverse outcome pathway) through a structured weight of evidence approach. However, when such mechanistic data are not available, grouping may be performed using a common adverse outcome. Toxicokinetic data can also be useful for grouping, particularly when metabolism information is available for a class of compounds and common toxicologically relevant metabolites are shared. In addition, prioritisation methods provide means to identify low-priority chemicals and reduce the number of chemicals in an assessment group. Prioritisation methods include combined risk-based approaches, risk-based approaches for single chemicals and exposure-driven approaches. Case studies have been provided to illustrate the practical application of hazard-driven criteria and the use of prioritisation methods for grouping of chemicals in assessment groups. Recommendations for future work are discussed.

Annual Report on surveillance for avian influenza in poultry and wild birds in Member States of the European Union in 2020

In 2020, Council Directive 2005/94/EC required EU Member States (MSs) to carry out surveillance for avian influenza (AI) in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. Based on this, MSs, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom implemented ongoing surveillance programmes to monitor incursions of AI viruses in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to collate, validate, analyse and summarise the data resulting from the avian influenza surveillance programmes in an annual report. This is the second such report produced using data directly submitted to EFSA by MSs. This report summarises the results of the surveillance activities carried out in poultry and wild birds in 2020. Overall, 24,768 poultry establishments (PEs) were sampled, of which 46 were seropositive for H5 virus strains and seven for H7 strains. Seropositive PEs were found in nine MSs (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden) and the United Kingdom. As per previous years, the highest percentages of seropositive PEs were found in establishments raising waterfowl game birds and breeding geese. Out of the 53 PEs with positive serological tests for H5/H7, seven tested positive in polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or virology for H5/H7 virus strains: six for Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) and one for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). In addition, 13 countries also reported PCR results from 748 PEs which did not correspond to the follow-up testing of a positive serology event (e.g. in some PEs, PCR tests were used for screening). Twenty-five of these PEs were found positive for AI viral RNA. These positive PEs were located in Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Romania and Slovakia. A total of 18,968 wild birds were sampled, with 878 birds testing positive to HPAI virus. Fourteen countries reported HPAI-positive wild birds, with all HPAI strains identified as H5. Most positive birds were infected with H5N8, with a smaller number of N1, N3, N5 and unidentified NA subtypes. In addition, there were 317 birds testing positive for LPAI H5 or H7 virus and 429 birds testing positive for non-H5/H7 AI virus, reported by 31 countries. The surveillance findings for poultry and wild birds for 2020 are discussed in relation to the current knowledge of the epidemiology of AI in Europe, in particular the H5N8 epidemic which has been identified late 2020.

Commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Ukraine

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'). This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by 1- to 3-year-old dormant grafted plants and rootstocks of Malus domestica imported from Ukraine, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by Ukraine. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two quarantine pests (Lopholeucaspis japonica and Tobacco ringspot virus), one protected zone quarantine pest (Erwinia amylovora) and one non-regulated pest (Eotetranychus prunicola) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. For Erwinia amylovora, for which special requirements are specified in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072, Annex X, item 9, the fulfilment of these requirements was evaluated. Based on the information provided in the dossier, the specific requirements for Erwinia amylovora were not met. For the three remaining selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Ukraine were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For the selected pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Eotetranychus prunicola being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,912 and 10,000 bundles (consisting of 50 plants each) per 10,000 would be free from Eotetranychus prunicola.

Maximum levels of cross-contamination for 24 antimicrobial active substances in non-target feed. Part 1: Methodology, general data gaps and uncertainties

The European Commission requested EFSA to assess, in collaboration with EMA, the specific concentrations of antimicrobials resulting from cross-contamination in non-target feed for food-producing animals below which there would not be an effect on the emergence of, and/or selection for, resistance in microbial agents relevant for human and animal health, as well as the levels of the antimicrobials which could have a growth promotion/increase yield effect. The assessment was performed for 24 antimicrobial active substances, as specified in the mandate. This scientific opinion describes the methodology used, and the main associated data gaps and uncertainties. To estimate the antimicrobial levels in the non-target feed that would not result in emergence of, and/or selection for, resistance, a model was developed. This 'Feed Antimicrobial Resistance Selection Concentration' (FARSC) model is based on the minimal selective concentration (MSC), or the predicted MSC (PMSC) if MSC for the most susceptible bacterial species is unavailable, the fraction of antimicrobial dose available for exposure to microorganisms in the large intestine or rumen (considering pharmacokinetic parameters), the daily faecal output or rumen volume and the daily feed intake. Currently, lack of data prevents the establishment of PMSC and/or FARSC for several antimicrobials and animal species. To address growth promotion, data from an extensive literature search were used. Specific assessments of the different substances grouped by antimicrobial classes are addressed in separate scientific opinions. General conclusions and recommendations were made.