Investigating the Spatial Patterns of Common Childhood Morbidity in Six Neighboring West African Countries

Application of a count regression model to identify the risk factors of under-five child morbidity in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh has seen a significant decline in child mortality in recent decades, but morbidity among children <5 y of age remains high. The aim of this analysis was to examine trends and identify risk factors related to child morbidity in Bangladesh.

METHODS

This analysis is based on data from four successive cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys for the years 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2017-18. Several count regression models were fitted and the best model was used to identify risk factors associated with morbidity in children <5 y of age.

RESULTS

According to the results of the trend analysis, the prevalence of non-symptomatic children increased and the prevalence of fever, diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections (ARIs) decreased over the years. The Vuong's non-nested test indicated that Poisson regression could be used as the best model. From the results of the Poisson regression model, child age, sex, underweight, wasted, stunting, maternal education, wealth status, religion and region were the important determinants associated with the risk of child morbidity. The risk was considerably higher among women with a primary education compared with women with a secondary or greater education in Bangladesh.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis concluded that child morbidity is still a major public health problem for Bangladesh. Thus it is important to take the necessary measures to reduce child morbidity (particularly fever, diarrhoea and ARI) by improving significant influencing factors.

Copula based trivariate spatial modeling of childhood illnesses in Western African countries

Acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhea, and fever are three common childhood illnesses, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates the marginal and pairwise correlated effects of these diseases across Western African countries in a single analytical framework. Using data from nationally representative cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, the study analyzed specific and correlated effects of each pair of childhood morbidity from ARI, diarrhea, and fever using copula regression models in fourteen contiguous Western African countries. Data concerning childhood demographic and socio-economic conditions were used as covariates. In this cross-sectional analysis of 152,125 children aged 0-59 months, the prevalence of ARI was 6.9%, diarrhea, 13.8%, and fever 19.6%. The results showed a positive correlation and geographical variation in the prevalence of the three illnesses across the study region. The estimated correlation and 95% confidence interval between diarrhea and fever is 0.431(0.300,0.539); diarrhea and ARI is 0.270(0.096,0.422); and fever and ARI is 0.502(0.350,0.614). The marginal and correlated spatial random effects reveal within-country spatial dependence. Source of water and access to electricity was significantly associated with any of the three illnesses, while television, birth order, and gender were associated with diarrhea or fever. The place of residence and access to newspapers were associated with fever or ARI. There was an increased likelihood of childhood ARI, diarrhea, and fever, which peaked at about ten months but decreased substantially thereafter. Mother's age was associated with a reduced likelihood of the three illnesses. The maps generated could be resourceful for area-specific policy-making to speed up mitigation processes.

Spatial Co-Morbidity of Childhood Acute Respiratory Infection, Diarrhoea and Stunting in Nigeria

In low- and middle-income countries, children aged below 5 years frequently suffer from disease co-occurrence. This study assessed whether the co-occurrence of acute respiratory infection (ARI), diarrhoea and stunting observed at the child level could also be reflected ecologically. We considered disease data on 69,579 children (0–59 months) from the 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys using a hierarchical Bayesian spatial shared component model to separate the state-specific risk of each disease into an underlying disease-overall spatial pattern, common to the three diseases and a disease-specific spatial pattern. We found that ARI and stunting were more concentrated in the north-eastern and southern parts of the country, while diarrhoea was much higher in the northern parts. The disease-general spatial component was greater in the north-eastern and southern parts of the country. Identifying and reducing common risk factors to the three conditions could result in improved child health, particularly in the northeast and south of Nigeria.

Childhood morbidity and its determinants: evidence from 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Although under-five mortality reduced globally from 93 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 39 in 2018, sub-Saharan Africa witnessed an increase from 31% in 1990 to 54% in 2018. Morbidity has been reported to contribute largely to these deaths. This study examined the factors that are associated with childhood morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

Demographic and Health Surveys of 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa were used in this study. The study involved 189 069 children who had or did not have fever, cough or diarrhoea in the 2 weeks preceding the surveys. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were applied in the analysis.

Results

About 22% of the children suffered from fever, 23% suffered from cough and 16% suffered from diarrhoea. While the odds of experiencing fever increased by 37% and 18%, respectively, for children from poorest and poorer households, children of women aged 15–24 and 25–34 years are 47% and 23%, respectively, more likely to experience diarrhoea. The probability of suffering from morbidity increased for children who are 12–23 months, of higher order birth, small in size at birth and from households with non-improved toilet facility.

Conclusions

This study has shown that childhood morbidity remains a major health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa with socioeconomic, maternal, child’s and environmental factors playing significant roles. Efforts at addressing this problem should consider these factors.