Derivation and validation of a risk-stratification model for patients with probable or proven COVID-19 in EDs: the revised HOME-CoV score

BACKGROUND

The HOME-CoV (Hospitalisation or Outpatient ManagEment of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection) score is a validated list of uniquely clinical criteria indicating which patients with probable or proven COVID-19 can be treated at home. The aim of this study was to optimise the score to improve its ability to discriminate between patients who do and do not need admission.

METHODS

A revised HOME-CoV score was derived using data from a previous prospective multicentre study which evaluated the original Home-CoV score. Patients with proven or probable COVID-19 attending 34 EDs in France, Monaco and Belgium between April and May 2020 were included. The population was split into a derivation and validation sample corresponding to the observational and interventional phases of the original study. The main outcome was non-invasive or invasive ventilation or all-cause death within 7 days following inclusion. Two threshold values were defined using a sensitivity of >0.9 and a specificity of >0.9 to identify low-risk and high-risk patients, respectively. The revised HOME-CoV score was then validated by retrospectively applying it to patients in the same EDs with proven or probable COVID-19 during the interventional phase. The revised HOME-CoV score was also tested against original HOME-CoV, qCSI, qSOFA, CRB65 and SMART-COP in this validation cohort.

RESULTS

There were 1696 patients in the derivation cohort, of whom 65 (3.8%) required non-invasive ventilation or mechanical ventilation or died within 7 days and 1304 patients in the validation cohort, of whom 22 (1.7%) had a progression of illness. The revised score included seven clinical criteria. The area under the curve (AUC) was 87.6 (95% CI 84.7 to 90.6). The cut-offs to define low-risk and high-risk patients were <2 and >3, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC was 85.8 (95% CI 80.6 to 91.0). A score of <2 qualified 73% of patients as low risk with a sensitivity of 0.77 (0.55-0.92) and a negative predictive value of 0.99 (0.99-1.00).

CONCLUSION

The revised HOME-CoV score, which does not require laboratory testing, may allow accurate risk stratification and safely qualify a significant proportion of patients with probable or proven COVID-19 for home treatment.

Exploring Medical Career Choice to Better Inform Swiss Physician Workforce Planning: Protocol for a National Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

A medical student's career choice directly influences the physician workforce shortage and the misdistribution of resources. First, individual and contextual factors related to career choice have been evaluated separately, but their interaction over time is unclear. Second, actual career choice, reasons for this choice, and the influence of national political strategies are currently unknown in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE

The overall objective of this study is to better understand the process of Swiss medical students' career choice and to predict this choice. Our specific aims will be to examine the predominately static (ie, sociodemographic and personality traits) and predominately dynamic (ie, learning context perceptions, anxiety state, motivation, and motives for career choice) variables that predict the career choice of Swiss medical school students, as well as their interaction, and to examine the evolution of Swiss medical students' career choice and their ultimate career path, including an international comparison with French medical students.

METHODS

The Swiss Medical Career Choice study is a national, multi-institution, and longitudinal study in which all medical students at all medical schools in Switzerland are eligible to participate. Data will be collected over 4 years for 4 cohorts of medical students using questionnaires in years 4 and 6. We will perform a follow-up during postgraduate training year 2 for medical graduates between 2018 and 2022. We will compare the different Swiss medical schools and a French medical school (the University of Strasbourg Faculty of Medicine). We will also examine the effect of new medical master's programs in terms of career choice and location of practice. For aim 2, in collaboration with the Swiss Institute for Medical Education, we will implement a national career choice tracking system and identify the final career choice of 2 cohorts of medical students who graduated from 4 Swiss medical schools from 2010 to 2012. We will also develop a model to predict their final career choice. Data analysis will be conducted using inferential statistics, and machine learning approaches will be used to refine the predictive model.

RESULTS

This study was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in January 2023. Recruitment began in May 2023. Data analysis will begin after the completion of the first cohort data collection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research will inform national stakeholders and medical schools on the prediction of students' future career choice and on key aspects of physician workforce planning. We will identify targeted actions that may be implemented during medical school and may ultimately influence career choice and encourage the correct number of physicians in the right specialties to fulfill the needs of currently underserved regions.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/53138.

Motivational factors influencing student intentions to practise in underserved areas

CONTEXT

Exploring student intentions to practise in underserved areas (UAs) is necessary to inform the planning and training of the future medical workforce in order to increase effectiveness and fulfil societal needs. However, little is known about the motivational factors influencing these intentions. This paper explores medical students' intentions to practise in UAs and the motivational factors predicting these intentions.

METHODS

Eligible participants included graduating medical students from four of the five Swiss medical schools, who self-reported specialty choice, intentions to practise in UAs, and motives that explained their career choices. Chi-squared analysis was used to compare site, gender, specialty choice and UA practice intention. Motives were aggregated to obtain motivational factors using a principal component analysis with varimax rotation. Logistic regression was used to predict the effects of these motivational factors and of gender on UA practice intention.

RESULTS

Of 1749 students included in the study, 240 (13.7%) expressed an intention to practise in UAs (62.1% of whom intended to practise in rural areas) and 719 (41.1%) were undecided. In those who wished to practise in UAs, general practice (21.6%) was the most preferred specialty. Motivational factors influencing specialty choice were intellectual challenge, work variety, work conditions and enthusiasm (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin index 0.79, P < .001, 49.0% of variance explained). Students motivated by work variety (odds ratio [OR] 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.7) and by work conditions (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6) were more likely to choose UAs and those motivated by intellectual challenge (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.5) were less likely. Undecided students' motivations were very similar to those of students interested in working in UAs.

CONCLUSIONS

The actual number of Swiss students interested in working in UAs is low and is probably insufficient to meet current societal needs. Work variety and work conditions appear to be factors that might attract interested and undecided students towards working in UAs.