Lower limb arthroplasty: can we produce a tool to predict outcome and failure, and is it cost-effective? An epidemiological study

Development of a patient-centred tool for use in total hip arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

The aim of this project was to develop a tool using the experience of previous patients to inform patient-centred clinical decision-making in the context of total hip arthroplasty (THA). We sought out the patients' views on what is important for them, leveraging registry data, and providing outcome information that is perceived as relevant, understandable, adapted to a specific patient's profile, and readily available.

METHODS

We created the information tool "Patients like me" in four steps. (1) The knowledge basis was the systematically collected detailed exposure and outcome information from the Geneva Arthroplasty Registry established 1996. (2) From the registry we randomly selected 275 patients about to undergo or having already undergone THA and asked them via interviews and a survey which benefits and harms associated with the operation and daily life with the prosthesis they perceived as most important. (3) The identified relevant data (39 predictor candidates, 15 outcomes) were evaluated using Conditional Inference Trees analysis to construct a classification algorithm for each of the 15 outcomes at three different time points/periods. Internal validity of the results was tested using bootstrapping. (4) The tool was designed by and pre-tested with patients over several iterations.

RESULTS

Data from 6836 primary elective THAs operated between 1996 and 2019 were included. The trajectories for the 15 outcomes from the domains pain relief, activity improvement, complication (infection, dislocation, peri-prosthetic fracture) and what to expect in the future (revision surgery, need for contralateral hip replacement) over up to 20 years after surgery were presented for all patients and for specific patient profiles. The tool was adapted to various purposes including individual use, group sessions, patient-clinician interaction and surgeon information to complement the preoperative planning. The pre-test patients' feedback to the tool was unanimously positive. They considered it interesting, clear, complete, and complementary to other information received.

CONCLUSION

The tool based on a survey of patients' perceived concerns and interests and the corresponding long-term data from a large institutional registry makes past patients' experience accessible, understandable, and visible for today's patients and their clinicians. It is a comprehensive illustration of trajectories of relevant outcomes from previous "Patients like me". This principle and methodology can be applied in other medical fields.

Intra-articular injection of gold micro-particles with hyaluronic acid for painful knee osteoarthritis

BACKGROUND

Recently, in an open pilot study, we found up to two years, a potential pain-relieving effect of intra-articular gold micro-particles using the patient's synovial fluid for patients with knee osteoarthritis (KOA). During the study the excluded group of patients, due to multisite pain, co-morbidities, and other exclusion criteria., received intra-articular gold micro-particles using hyaluronic acid,. We aimed to identify if pre-treatment characteristics influence the global outcome two years after intra-articular treatment for painful KOA with gold microparticles using hyaluronic acid.

METHODS

Using hyaluronic acid as the carrier, 136 patients with KOA received intraarticular injections with 20 mg gold microparticles (72.000 particles, 20-40 μm in diameter). In the analysis, we included the Global Rating of Change Scale, Pain Detect Questionnaire (PDQ), Body Mass Index (BMI), and Kellgren & Lawrence score at the inclusion, Western Ontario, and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) sub-scores for pain, stiffness, and function at inclusion and two years.

RESULTS

On the Global Rating Change Scale, 69.1% of patients reported a positive effect, 28.7% no effect, and 2.2% worse. PDQ and the three WOMAC subscores all improved at two years of follow-up. PDQ ≥ 13 (P = 0.028), BMI (P = 0.022) and Kellgren & Lawrence grade 4 (P = 0.028) at inclusion reduced the effect with a minor odds ratio compared to the baseline effect of treatment (P = 0.025). WOMAC subscores at inclusion did not influence the outcome (P > 0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Severe osteoarthritis, obesity, and neuropathic pain, reduced the effect of intra-articular gold microparticles for knee OA.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study followed the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the local ethics committee of the North Denmark Region by 27/07/2016 (N-20,160,045). The regional data protection agency approved the project by 06/07/2016 (2008-58-0028, ID 2016 - 116) and registered in ClinicalTrial.Gov by 04/01/2018 (NCT03389906).

Hinge prostheses in the revision of unicompartmental knee replacement: a descriptive analysis of data from the national joint registry for England, Wales and Northern Ireland

INTRODUCTION

Unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) is an effective surgical strategy in patients with isolated medial or lateral compartment osteoarthritis. Study aims were to (1) describe the epidemiology of patients undergoing revision of UKR to a hinge knee replacement (HKR); (2) identify factors influencing time to revision; (3) evaluate HKR survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An analysis of National Joint Registry data was undertaken, exploring revision of UKR to HKR between 2007 and April 2021. Descriptive analysis of eligible patients and Cox Regression to identify key determinants of time to revision were performed. Failure of HKR post-revision was assessed using survival analysis.

RESULTS

111 patients underwent revision of UKR to HKR. Median age at revision was 70 years and most common indications were instability (n = 42) and infection (n = 22). The most common implant was a rotating HKR. Significant independent factors associated with earlier revision were periprosthetic fracture (p = 0.03) and malalignment (p = 0.03). Progressive osteoarthritis (p = 0.01) and higher ASA grades (3: p = 0.01, 4: p < 0.01) delayed time to revision; patient sex and age were not significant factors. Ten patients required subsequent re-revision; median age at re-revision was 61 years. HKR revised from UKR had an 89.3% revision-free risk at 5 years. Male sex (p < 0.01) and younger age (p < 0.01) were associated with re-revision.

CONCLUSIONS

Factors associated with time to revision may be used to counsel patients prior to UKR. The survivorship of the HKR of 89.3% at 5 years is concerning and careful consideration should be given when using this level of constraint when revising UKR in younger or male patients.

Post-traumatic stress disorder is more likely in younger patients undergoing lower limb arthroplasty: impact on function and quality of life

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to assess whether PTSD was associated with preoperative and/or postoperative joint-specific function and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and whether there were associated preoperative factors.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted at a single centre using an established arthroplasty database over a 2-year period. Patients undergoing THA and TKA completed pre and 1-year postoperative Oxford hip/knee scores and EuroQoL questionnaire (EQ-5D) to assess joint specific function and HRQoL. Postoperatively, patients completed the self-reported PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) questionnaire where a score of 31 or greater was used to determine a provisional diagnosis of PTSD.

RESULTS

There were 1244 THA and 1356 TKA patients, of which 42 (3.4%) and 54 (4.0%) had a PCL-5 score of ≥ 31, respectively (PTSD groups). Younger age was associated (p < 0.001) with PTSD for both THA (mean difference (MD) 9.9, 95%CI 6.7-13.0) and TKA (MD 4.6, 95%CI 2.2-6.9), which remained significant when adjusting for confounding variables (THA: p < 0.001; TKA: p = 0.020). The preoperative Oxford (THA:MD 4.9, p < 0.001; TKA:MD 5.7, p < 0.001) and EQ-5D scores (THA:MD 0.378, p < 0.001; TKA:MD 0.276, p < 0.001) were significantly worse in the PTSD groups. Age (AUC 73.8%, p < 0.001) and EQ-5D (AUC 72.9%, p < 0.001) were independent factors that were predictive of PTSD in patients undergoing THA and TKA, respectively. When adjusting for confounding variables, PTSD was clinically and statistically significantly (p < 0.001) associated with a lower improvement in the Oxford (THA:MD 9.3; TKA:MD 10.0) and EQ-5D (THA:MD 0.375; TKA:MD 0.293) scores.

CONCLUSIONS

One in 25 patients met a provisional PTSD diagnosis; they were younger and had worse preoperative and improvement in postoperative joint specific function and HRQoL. Age and EQ-5D could be used to identify patients at risk.

Cost-effectiveness of decellularised bone allograft compared with fresh-frozen bone allograft for acetabular impaction bone grafting during a revision hip arthroplasty in the UK

OBJECTIVES

Fresh-frozen allograft is the gold-standard bone graft material used during revision hip arthroplasty. However, new technology has been developed to manufacture decellularised bone with potentially better graft incorporation. As these grafts cost more to manufacture, the aim of this cost-effectiveness study was to estimate whether the potential health benefit of decellularised bone allograft outweighs their increased cost.

STUDY DESIGN

A Markov model was constructed to estimate the costs and the quality-adjusted life years of impaction bone grafting during a revision hip arthroplasty.

SETTING

This study took the perspective of the National Health Service in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

The Markov model includes patients undergoing a revision hip arthroplasty in the UK.

INTERVENTION

Impaction bone grafting during a revision hip arthroplasty using either decellularised bone allograft or fresh-frozen allograft.

MEASURES

Outcome measures included: total costs and quality-adjusted life years of both interventions over the lifetime of the model; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for both graft types, using base case parameters, univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the base case model was found to be £270 059 per quality-adjusted life year. Univariate sensitivity analysis found that changing the discount rate, the decellularised bone graft cost, age of the patient cohort and the revision rate all had a significant effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

As there are no clinical studies of impaction bone grafting using a decellularised bone allograft, there is a high level of uncertainty around the costs of producing a decellularised bone allograft and the potential health benefits. However, if a decellularised bone graft was manufactured for £2887 and lowered the re-revision rate to less than 64 cases per year per 10 000 revision patients, then it would most likely be cost-effective compared with fresh-frozen allograft.

Instruments to assess appropriateness of hip and knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To assess criteria and psychometric properties of instruments for assessing appropriateness of elective joint arthroplasty (JA) for adults with primary hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

A systematic review guided by Cochrane methods and PRISMA guidelines. Studies were searched in five databases. Eligible articles include all study designs developing, testing, and/or using an instrument to assess JA appropriateness. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted data. Instruments were compared with Hawker et al. JA consensus criteria. Psychometric properties of instruments were described and appraised guided by Fitzpatrick's and COSMIN approaches.

RESULTS

Of 55 instruments included, none met all Hawker et al. JA consensus criteria. Criteria the most met were pain (n = 50), function (n = 49), quality of life (n = 33), and radiography (n = 24). Criteria the least met were clinical evidence of OA (n = 18), expectations (n = 15), readiness for surgery (n = 11), conservative treatments (n = 8), and patient/surgeon agree benefits outweigh risks (n = 0). Instrument by Arden et al. met the most criteria (6 of 9). The most tested psychometric properties were appropriateness (n = 55), face/content validity (n = 55), predictive validity (n = 29), construct validity and feasibility (n = 24). The least tested psychometric properties were intra-rater reliability (n = 3), internal consistency (n = 5), and inter-rater reliability (n = 13). Instruments by Gutacker et al. and Osborne et al. met the most psychometric properties (4 of 10).

CONCLUSION

Most instruments included traditional criteria for assessing JA appropriateness but did not include a trial of conservative treatments or shared decision-making elements. There was limited evidence on psychometric properties.

The impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty

AIM

to determine the impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty.

METHODS

we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records. Frailty was assessed using the electronic frailty index (categorised: fit, mild, moderate, severe frailty). We determined the association between frailty category and post-operative Oxford hip/knee score (OHS/OKS) using Tobit regression. We calculated the proportion of patients in each frailty category who achieved the minimally important change (MIC) in OHS (≥8 points) and OKS (≥7 points) and the proportion who reported a successful outcome (hip/knee problems either 'much better' or 'a little better' following surgery).

RESULTS

About 42,512 people who had a hip arthroplasty and 49,208 who had a knee arthroplasty contributed data. In a Tobit model adjusted for pre-operative OHS/OKS, age, sex and quintile of index of multiple deprivation, increasing frailty was associated with decreasing post-operative OHS and OKS, respectively, β-coefficient (95% CI) in severely frail versus fit, -6.97 (-7.44, -6.49) and - 5.88 (-6.28, -5.47). The proportion of people who achieved the MIC in OHS and OKS, respectively, decreased from 92 and 86% among fit individuals to 84 and 78% among those with severe frailty. Patient-reported success following hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively, decreased from 97 and 93% among fit individuals to 90 and 83% among those with severe frailty.

CONCLUSION

frailty adversely impacts on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty. However, even among those with severe frailty, the large majority achieved the MIC in OHS/OKS and reported a successful outcome.

Content and delivery of pre-operative interventions for patients undergoing total knee replacement: a rapid review

BACKGROUND

Total knee replacement (TKR) is a common operation typically performed for end-stage knee osteoarthritis. Patients awaiting TKR often have poor health-related quality of life. Approximately 20% of patients experience persistent pain post-TKR. Pre-operative TKR interventions could improve pre- and post-operative outcomes, but future research is required to inform their design. This review aimed to identify and synthesize recent literature on the content and delivery of pre-operative TKR interventions to help guide future research and clinical practice.

METHODS

This rapid review included randomized trials of pre-operative TKR interventions ("outcomes studies") and primary studies exploring patients' and/or health professionals' views of pre-operative TKR interventions ("views studies"). Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for English language studies published between January 2009 and December 2020. Eligible studies' reference lists were screened. Studies were appraised using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. The findings were narratively synthesized using a convergent segregated approach.

RESULTS

From 3263 records identified, 52 studies were included (29 outcomes studies, 21 views studies, two outcomes/views studies). The studies' methodological quality varied but was generally highest in qualitative studies. The outcomes studies investigated education (n=5), exercise (n=20), psychological (n=2), lifestyle (n=1), and/or other interventions (n=5). The views studies addressed education (n=20), exercise (n=3), psychological (n=1), lifestyle (n=4), and/or other interventions (n=1). Only three outcomes studies (two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and a pilot study) compared the effectiveness of intervention components/delivery approaches. The two RCTs' results suggest that pre-operative TKR exercise interventions are equally effective regardless of whether they include strength or strength plus balance training and whether they are hospital- or home-based. Personal tailoring and using more than one delivery format were associated with improved outcomes and/or perceived as beneficial for multiple intervention types.

CONCLUSIONS

Definitive evidence on the optimal design of pre-operative TKR interventions is lacking. Personal tailoring and employing multiple delivery formats appear to be valuable design elements. Preliminary evidence suggests that including balance training and hospital versus home delivery may not be critical design elements for pre-operative TKR exercise interventions.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42019143248 FUNDER: National Institute for Health and Care Research (ICA-CDRF-2018-04-ST2-006).

Projections for primary hip and knee replacement surgery up to the year 2060: an analysis based on data from The National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man

INTRODUCTION

We estimated the number of primary total hip and knee replacements (THR and TKR) that will need to be performed up to the year 2060.

METHODS

We used data from The National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man on the volume of primary THRs (n=94,936) and TKRs (n=100,547) performed in 2018. We projected future numbers of THR and TKR using a static estimated rate from 2018 applied to population growth forecast data from the UK Office for National Statistics up to 2060.

RESULTS

By 2060, THR and TKR volume would increase from 2018 levels by an estimated 37.7% (n=130,766) and 36.6% (n=137,341), respectively. For both males and females demand for surgery was also higher for patients aged 70 and over, with older patients having the biggest relative increase in volume over time: 70-79 years (44.6% males, 41.2% females); 80-89 years (112.4% males, 85.6% females); 90 years and older (348.0% males, 198.2% females).

CONCLUSION

By 2060 demand for hip and knee joint replacement is estimated to increase by almost 40%. Demand will be greatest in older patients (70+ years), which will have significant implications for the health service requiring forward planning given that morbidity and resource use is higher in this population. These issues, coupled with two waves of COVID-19, will impact the ability of health services to deliver timely joint replacement to many patients for a number of years, requiring urgent planning.

Progression of chronic pain and associated health-related quality of life and healthcare resource use over 5 years after total knee replacement: evidence from a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

As part of the STAR Programme, a comprehensive study exploring long-term pain after surgery, we investigated how pain and function, health-related quality of life (HRQL), and healthcare resource use evolved over 5 years after total knee replacement (TKR) for those with and without chronic pain 1 year after their primary surgery.

METHODS

We used data from the Clinical Outcomes in Arthroplasty Study prospective cohort study, which followed patients undergoing TKR from two English hospitals for 5 years. Chronic pain was defined using the Oxford Knee Score Pain Subscale (OKS-PS) where participants reporting a score of 14 or lower were classified as having chronic pain 1-year postsurgery. Pain and function were measured with the OKS, HRQL using the EuroQoL-5 Dimension, resource use from yearly questionnaires, and costs estimated from a healthcare system perspective. We analysed the changes in OKS-PS, HRQL and resource use over a 5-year follow-up period. Multiple imputation accounted for missing data.

RESULTS

Chronic pain was reported in 70/552 operated knees (12.7%) 1 year after surgery. The chronic pain group had worse pain, function and HRQL presurgery and postsurgery than the non-chronic pain group. Those without chronic pain markedly improved right after surgery, then plateaued. Those with chronic pain improved slowly but steadily. Participants with chronic pain reported greater healthcare resource use and costs than those without, especially 1 year after surgery, and mostly from hospital readmissions. 64.7% of those in chronic pain recovered during the following 4 years, while 30.9% fluctuated in and out of chronic pain.

CONCLUSION

Although TKR is often highly beneficial, some patients experienced chronic pain postsurgery. Although many fluctuated in their pain levels and most recovered over time, identifying people most likely to have chronic pain and supporting their recovery would benefit patients and healthcare systems.

90-Day all-cause mortality can be predicted following a total knee replacement: an international, network study to develop and validate a prediction model

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for 90-day mortality following a total knee replacement (TKR). TKR is a safe and cost-effective surgical procedure for treating severe knee osteoarthritis (OA). Although complications following surgery are rare, prediction tools could help identify high-risk patients who could be targeted with preventative interventions. The aim was to develop and validate a simple model to help inform treatment choices.

METHODS

A mortality prediction model for knee OA patients following TKR was developed and externally validated using a US claims database and a UK general practice database. The target population consisted of patients undergoing a primary TKR for knee OA, aged ≥ 40 years and registered for ≥ 1 year before surgery. LASSO logistic regression models were developed for post-operative (90-day) mortality. A second mortality model was developed with a reduced feature set to increase interpretability and usability.

RESULTS

A total of 193,615 patients were included, with 40,950 in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database and 152,665 in Optum. The full model predicting 90-day mortality yielded AUROC of 0.78 when trained in OPTUM and 0.70 when externally validated on THIN. The 12 variable model achieved internal AUROC of 0.77 and external AUROC of 0.71 in THIN.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple prediction model based on sex, age, and 10 comorbidities that can identify patients at high risk of short-term mortality following TKR was developed that demonstrated good, robust performance. The 12-feature mortality model is easily implemented and the performance suggests it could be used to inform evidence based shared decision-making prior to surgery and targeting prophylaxis for those at high risk.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

The effects of physiotherapy using proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation techniques on the gait of patients after hip and knee arthroplasty: a case report

Background: Gait disturbances are a major problem for patients after arthroplasty. After the surgery, walking speed, the rhythm of locomotion, and the length of the steps are significantly reduced. One of the therapeutic methods used in gait re-education is proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF). Aim of the study: This study aimed to evaluate the effects of physiotherapy using PNF techniques on the gait of patients after hip and knee arthroplasty. Case report: A 60-year-old woman with advanced osteoarthritis that received bilateral hip and right knee arthroplasties was examined. Before and after the therapy, the following tests were performed: measurement of the range of motion (ROM) of hip and knees joints in the sagittal plane using a goniometer, assessment of the symmetry of the lower limbs loading using the two scales test, assessment of the risk of falls using the “Timed Up and Go” test, assessment of balance and gait using the Tinetti test, and assessment of pain intensity using the visual analogue scale (VAS). Rehabilitation was comprised of 15 PNF therapies, including scapular and pelvic PNF patterns. The stabilization of the upper and lower trunk, lifting, shifting of the body’s weight from one foot to another, gait cycle (the stance phase and the swing phase), walking forward, backward, and sideways, and walking up/down the stairs were also used. After the therapy, the flexion ROM in both hip and knees joints was improved. The lower limb symmetry index decreased from 1.167 to 1.121, and the sum of the points obtained in the Tinetti test increased from 22 to 26. Pain in the joints also decreased from 6 on the VAS scale to 4. However, the result obtained in the “Timed Up and Go” test after the therapy was increased by 0.5 s compared to before the therapy. Conclusions: After hip and knee arthroplasties, physiotherapy using PNF techniques improved the gait and functional status of the patient. Continuation of this research using a larger number of patients is needed.

The effects of physiotherapy using proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation techniques on the gait of patients after hip and knee arthroplasty: a case report

Background Gait disturbances are a major problem for patients after arthroplasty. After the surgery, walking speed, the rhythm of locomotion, and the length of the steps are significantly reduced. One of the therapeutic methods used in gait re-education is proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF). Aim of the study This study aimed to evaluate the effects of physiotherapy using PNF techniques on the gait of patients after hip and knee arthroplasty. Case report A 60-year-old woman with advanced osteoarthritis that received bilateral hip and right knee arthroplasties was examined. Before and after the therapy, the following tests were performed: measurement of the range of motion (ROM) of hip and knees joints in the sagittal plane using a goniometer, assessment of the symmetry of the lower limbs loading using the two scales test, assessment of the risk of falls using the “Timed Up and Go” test, assessment of balance and gait using the Tinetti test, and assessment of pain intensity using the visual analogue scale (VAS). Rehabilitation was comprised of 15 PNF therapies, including scapular and pelvic PNF patterns. The stabilization of the upper and lower trunk, lifting, shifting of the body’s weight from one foot to another, gait cycle (the stance phase and the swing phase), walking forward, backward, and sideways, and walking up/down the stairs were also used. After the therapy, the flexion ROM in both hip and knees joints was improved. The lower limb symmetry index decreased from 1.167 to 1.121, and the sum of the points obtained in the Tinetti test increased from 22 to 26. Pain in the joints also decreased from 6 on the VAS scale to 4. However, the result obtained in the “Timed Up and Go” test after the therapy was increased by 0.5 s compared to before the therapy. Conclusions After hip and knee arthroplasties, physiotherapy using PNF techniques improved the gait and functional status of the patient. Continuation of this research using a larger number of patients is needed.

Patient-Reported Function and Quality of Life After Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Analysis of 10,727 Patients from the NHS PROMs Program

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to investigate changes in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) after revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA).

METHODS

A total of 10,727 patients undergoing elective rTKA were recruited from the UK National Health Service PROMs data set from 2013 to 2019. PROMs were collected at baseline and six months to assess joint function (Oxford Knee Score, OKS) and quality of life (EQ-5D). Associations with a change in the OKS (COKS) were investigated through multiple linear regression.

RESULTS

The mean COKS was 12.4 (standard deviation 10.7) points. A total of 6776 of 10,329 (65.6%) patients demonstrated increase in the OKS above the minimal important change of 7.5 points. The median change in the EQ-5D utility was 0.227 (interquartile range 0.000 to 0.554). A total of 4917 of 9279 (53.0%) patients achieved a composite endpoint of improvement greater than the minimal important change for joint function and 'better' QoL as per the Paretian analysis. A total of 7477 of 10,727 (69.7%) patients reported satisfaction with rTKA. A total of 7947 of 10,727 (74.1%) patients felt surgery was a success. A total of 4888 of 10,632 (46.0%) patients reported one or more adverse events. A higher preoperative OKS was associated with a lower COKS (coefficient -0.63 [95% confidence interval -0.67 to -0.60]). Other factors associated with a lower COKS were postoperative complication(s), age under 60 years, longer duration of knee problems, patients who identified as disabled, problems in EQ-5D dimensions of anxiety/depression and self-care, comorbid conditions (circulatory problems, diabetes, and depression), and earlier year of procedure in the data set.

CONCLUSION

Two-thirds of patients experienced a meaningful improvement in joint function after rTKA. However, there was a high frequency of patient-reported complications. These findings may enable better informed discussion of the risks and benefits of discretionary rTKA.

Trajectories of pain and function in the first five years after total hip and knee arthroplasty : an analysis of patient reported outcome data from the National Joint Registry

AIMS

To determine the trajectories of patient reported pain and functional disability over five years following total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA).

METHODS

A prospective, longitudinal cohort sub-study within the National Joint Registry (NJR) was undertaken. In all, 20,089 patients who underwent primary THA and 22,489 who underwent primary TKA between 2009 and 2010 were sent Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS) questionnaires at six months, and one, three, and five years postoperatively. OHS and OKS were disaggregated into pain and function subscales. A k-means clustering procedure assigned each patient to a longitudinal trajectory group for pain and function. Ordinal regression was used to predict trajectory group membership using baseline OHS and OKS score, age, BMI, index of multiple deprivation, sex, ethnicity, geographical location, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade.

RESULTS

Data described two discrete trajectories for pain and function: 'level 1' responders (around 70% of cases) in whom a high level of improvement is sustained over five years, and 'level 2' responders who had sustained improvement, but at a lower level. Baseline patient variables were only weak predictors of pain trajectory and modest predictors of function trajectory. Those with worse baseline pain and function tended to show a greater likelihood of following a 'level 2' trajectory. Six-month patient-reported outcome measures data reliably predicted the class of five-year outcome trajectory for both pain and function.

CONCLUSION

The available preoperative patient variables were not reliable predictors of postoperative pain and function after THA and TKA. Reviewing patient outcomes at six months postoperatively is a reliable indicator of outcome at five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1111-1118.

Revision knee replacement for prosthetic joint infection: Epidemiology, clinical outcomes and health-economic considerations

Prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a devastating complication of knee replacement surgery. Recent evidence has shown that the burden of disease is increasing as more and more knee replacement procedures are performed. The current incidence of revision total knee replacement (TKR) for PJI is estimated at 7.5 cases per 1000 primary joint replacement procedures at 10 years. Revision TKR for PJI is complex surgery, and is associated to a high rate of post-operative complications. The 5-year patient mortality is comparable to some common cancer diagnoses, and more than 15% of patients require re-revision by 10 years. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) including joint function may be worse following revision TKR for PJI than for aseptic indications. The complexity and extended length of the treatment pathway for PJI places a significant burden on the healthcare system, highlighting it as an area for future research to identify the most clinically and cost-effective interventions.

Outpatient physiotherapy versus home-based rehabilitation for patients at risk of poor outcomes after knee arthroplasty: CORKA RCT

BACKGROUND

Over 100,000 primary knee arthroplasty operations are undertaken annually in the UK. Around 15-30% of patients do not report a good outcome. Better rehabilitation strategies may improve patient-reported outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the outcomes from a traditional outpatient physiotherapy model with those from a home-based rehabilitation programme for people assessed as being at risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty.

DESIGN

An individually randomised, two-arm controlled trial with a blinded outcome assessment, a parallel health economic evaluation and a nested qualitative study.

SETTING

The trial took place in 14 NHS physiotherapy departments.

PARTICIPANTS

People identified as being at high risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty.

INTERVENTIONS

A multicomponent home-based rehabilitation package delivered by rehabilitation assistants with supervision from qualified therapists compared with usual-care outpatient physiotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the Late Life Function and Disability Instrument at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were the Oxford Knee Score (a disease-specific measure of function); Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score; Quality of Life subscale; Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly; EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version; and physical function assessed using the Figure-of-8 Walk Test, 30-Second Chair Stand Test and Single Leg Stance. Data on the use of health-care services, time off work and informal care were collected using participant diaries.

RESULTS

In total, 621 participants were randomised. A total of 309 participants were assigned to the COmmunity based Rehabilitation after Knee Arthroplasty (CORKA) home-based rehabilitation programme, receiving a median of five treatment sessions (interquartile range 4-7 sessions). A total of 312 participants were assigned to usual care, receiving a median of four sessions (interquartile range 2-6 sessions). The primary outcome, Late Life Function and Disability Instrument function total score at 12 months, was collected for 279 participants (89%) in the home-based CORKA group and 287 participants (92%) in the usual-care group. No clinically or statistically significant difference was found between the groups (intention-to-treat adjusted difference 0.49 points, 95% confidence interval -0.89 to 1.88 points; p = 0.48). There were no statistically significant differences between the groups in any of the patient-reported or physical secondary outcome measures at 6 or 12 months post randomisation. The health economic analysis found that the CORKA intervention was cheaper to provide than usual care (£66 less per participant). Total societal costs (combining health-care costs and other costs) were lower for the CORKA intervention than usual care (£316 less per participant). Adopting a societal perspective, CORKA had a 75% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Adopting the narrower health and social care perspective, CORKA had a 43% probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold.

LIMITATIONS

The interventions were of short duration and were set within current commissioning guidance for UK physiotherapy. Participants and treating therapists could not be blinded.

CONCLUSIONS

This randomised controlled trial found no important differences in outcomes when post-arthroplasty rehabilitation was delivered using a home-based, rehabilitation assistant-delivered rehabilitation package or a traditional outpatient model. However, the health economic evaluation found that when adopting a societal perspective, the CORKA home-based intervention was cost-saving and more effective than, and thus dominant over, usual care, owing to reduced time away from paid employment for this group. Further research could look at identifying the risk of poor outcome and further evaluation of a cost-effective treatment, including the workforce model to deliver it.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13517704.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 65. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A patient satisfaction survey investigating pre- and post-operative information provision in lower limb surgery

Background

Planned lower limb surgery is common, with over 90,000 hip replacements, 95,000 knee replacements and 15,000 anterior cruciate ligament reconstructions performed in the UK each year. These procedures are primarily indicated to treat osteoarthritis, sporting injuries and trauma. Patient satisfaction is an important element of healthcare provision, which is usually measured by functional outcomes but influenced by other factors. Few studies have assessed patients’ views on the information given to them pertaining surgery and patients are infrequently consulted when designing leaflets and information packs, which can lead to confusion during the recovery period and poor long-term outcomes. Furthermore, previous studies have not directly asked patients what resources they would prefer, or which format would suit them best. This project aimed to assess if patients were satisfied with the information they received around their operations and to identify potential improvements.

Methods

Set in a National Health Service (NHS) run major trauma centre in the West Midlands, a multiple choice and free-text answer survey was administered to patients who used the orthopaedic service over the course of 1 month. Surveys were designed in Qualtrics and administered face-to-face on paper. Thematic content analysis was performed on the results.

Results

Eighty patients completed the survey, of which 88.8% of patients were satisfied with the information they received. Discussions with surgeons were the most useful resource and 53% of patients requested more internet resources. Post-operative patients were statistically more likely to be dissatisfied with information provision than pre-operative patients. Over 20% of the study population requested more information on post-operative pain and recovery timelines.

Conclusions

Although patients were satisfied in general, areas for change were identified. Suggested resources took the form of webpages and mobile platforms. These resources could contain educational videos, patient experience blogs or interactive recovery timelines, to be of benefit to patients. These suggestions may enable NHS Trusts to “get into the digital age”, however, more research on patient satisfaction around information provision and the impact it has on recovery and decision making is needed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12891-020-03761-w.

The Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine tool to select candidates for hip and knee replacement surgery: development and economic modelling

BACKGROUND

There is no good evidence to support the use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in setting preoperative thresholds for referral for hip and knee replacement surgery. Despite this, the practice is widespread in the NHS.

OBJECTIVES/RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Can clinical outcome tools be used to set thresholds for hip or knee replacement? What is the relationship between the choice of threshold and the cost-effectiveness of surgery?

METHODS

A systematic review identified PROMs used to assess patients undergoing hip/knee replacement. Their measurement properties were compared and supplemented by analysis of existing data sets. For each candidate score, we calculated the absolute threshold (a preoperative level above which there is no potential for improvement) and relative thresholds (preoperative levels above which individuals are less likely to improve than others). Owing to their measurement properties and the availability of data from their current widespread use in the NHS, the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and Oxford Hip Score (OHS) were selected as the most appropriate scores to use in developing the Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine (ACHE) tool. The change in score and the probability of an improvement were then calculated and modelled using preoperative and postoperative OKS/OHSs and PROM scores, thereby creating the ACHE tool. Markov models were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of total hip/knee arthroplasty in the NHS for different preoperative values of OKS/OHSs over a 10-year period. The threshold values were used to model how the ACHE tool may change the number of referrals in a single UK musculoskeletal hub. A user group was established that included patients, members of the public and health-care representatives, to provide stakeholder feedback throughout the research process.

RESULTS

From a shortlist of four scores, the OHS and OKS were selected for the ACHE tool based on their measurement properties, calculated preoperative thresholds and cost-effectiveness data. The absolute threshold was 40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS using the preferred improvement criterion. A range of relative thresholds were calculated based on the relationship between a patient's preoperative score and their probability of improving after surgery. For example, a preoperative OHS of 35 or an OKS of 30 translates to a 75% probability of achieving a good outcome from surgical intervention. The economic evaluation demonstrated that hip and knee arthroplasty cost of < £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year for patients with any preoperative score below the absolute thresholds (40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS). Arthroplasty was most cost-effective for patients with lower preoperative scores.

LIMITATIONS

The ACHE tool supports but does not replace the shared decision-making process required before an individual decides whether or not to undergo surgery.

CONCLUSION

The OHS and OKS can be used in the ACHE tool to assess an individual patient's suitability for hip/knee replacement surgery. The system enables evidence-based and informed threshold setting in accordance with local resources and policies. At a population level, both hip and knee arthroplasty are highly cost-effective right up to the absolute threshold for intervention. Our stakeholder user group felt that the ACHE tool was a useful evidence-based clinical tool to aid referrals and that it should be trialled in NHS clinical practice to establish its feasibility.

FUTURE WORK

Future work could include (1) a real-world study of the ACHE tool to determine its acceptability to patients and general practitioners and (2) a study of the role of the ACHE tool in supporting referral decisions.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Developing a personalized outcome prediction tool for knee arthroplasty

AIMS

The purpose of this study was to develop a personalized outcome prediction tool, to be used with knee arthroplasty patients, that predicts outcomes (lengths of stay (LOS), 90 day readmission, and one-year patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) on an individual basis and allows for dynamic modifiable risk factors.

METHODS

Data were prospectively collected on all patients who underwent total or unicompartmental knee arthroplasty at a between July 2015 and June 2018. Cohort 1 (n = 5,958) was utilized to develop models for LOS and 90 day readmission. Cohort 2 (n = 2,391, surgery date 2015 to 2017) was utilized to develop models for one-year improvements in Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) pain score, KOOS function score, and KOOS quality of life (QOL) score. Model accuracies within the imputed data set were assessed through cross-validation with root mean square errors (RMSEs) and mean absolute errors (MAEs) for the LOS and PROMs models, and the index of prediction accuracy (IPA), and area under the curve (AUC) for the readmission models. Model accuracies in new patient data sets were assessed with AUC.

RESULTS

Within the imputed datasets, the LOS (RMSE 1.161) and PROMs models (RMSE 15.775, 11.056, 21.680 for KOOS pain, function, and QOL, respectively) demonstrated good accuracy. For all models, the accuracy of predicting outcomes in a new set of patients were consistent with the cross-validation accuracy overall. Upon validation with a new patient dataset, the LOS and readmission models demonstrated high accuracy (71.5% and 65.0%, respectively). Similarly, the one-year PROMs improvement models demonstrated high accuracy in predicting ten-point improvements in KOOS pain (72.1%), function (72.9%), and QOL (70.8%) scores.

CONCLUSION

The data-driven models developed in this study offer scalable predictive tools that can accurately estimate the likelihood of improved pain, function, and quality of life one year after knee arthroplasty as well as LOS and 90 day readmission. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1183-1193.

Preoperative exercise in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty: a pilot randomized controlled trial

Background

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of preoperative physiotherapy (PT) on functional, subjective and socio-economic parameters after total knee arthroplasty (TKA).

Methods

20 patients (mean ± SD: age 67 ± 7 years) scheduled for TKA at Balgrist University Hospital between July 2016 and March 2017 were randomly assigned to a control (CG) or intervention (IG) group. 3 to 4 weeks prior to surgery the IG completed 5 to 9 sessions of PT containing proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF) techniques, endurance training and individually indicated interventions. Measurements were executed at baseline, preoperative and 3 months after TKA. The primary outcome measure was the Stair Climbing Test (SCT), secondary outcome measures were the knee range of motion (ROM) and the level of physical activity using Lysholm Score (LS) and Tegner Activity Scale (TAS). The subjective and socio-economic parameters were the Patients’ Global Impression of Change (PGIC) scale, inpatient rehabilitation time, preoperative pain levels and metabolic equivalent (MET), postoperative intake of analgesics and overall costs.

Results

No difference between IG and CG was found for SCT (F (2/36) = 0.016, p = 0.984, η2 = 0.004). An interaction between group and time was shown for TAS (F (18/1) = 13.890) with an increase in the IG (p = 0.002, η2 = 0.536). The sub-item “pain” within the LS presented a higher pain-level in CG (F (18/1) = 4.490, p = 0.048, η2 = 0.974), while IG showed a higher preoperative MET compared to CG (p = 0.035). There were no other significant changes. The CG produced 21.4% higher overall costs, took more analgesics and showed higher preoperative pain levels than the IG.

Conclusions

Findings show that preoperative therapy improved the level of physical activity before and after TKA and resulted in a clinically relevant gain in TAS.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier; NCT03160534. Registered 19 May 2017

The use of patient-reported outcome measures to guide referral for hip and knee arthroplasty

AIMS

To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores.

METHODS

Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual's probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS.

RESULTS

The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips).

CONCLUSION

By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):941-949.

The use of patient-reported outcome measures to guide referral for hip and knee arthroplasty

AIMS

To assess how the cost-effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) varies with age, sex, and preoperative Oxford Hip or Knee Score (OHS/OKS); and to identify the patient groups for whom THA/TKA is cost-effective.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model from a United Kingdom NHS perspective, informed by published analyses of patient-level data. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of THA and TKA in adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis compared with having no arthroplasty surgery during the ten-year time horizon.

RESULTS

THA and TKA cost < £7,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained at all preoperative scores below the absolute referral thresholds calculated previously (40 for OHS and 41 for OKS). Furthermore, THA cost < £20,000/QALY for patients with OHS of ≤ 45, while TKA was cost-effective for patients with OKS of ≤ 43, since the small improvements in quality of life outweighed the cost of surgery and any subsequent revisions. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that there is little uncertainty around the conclusions.

CONCLUSION

If society is willing to pay £20,000 per QALY gained, THA and TKA are cost-effective for nearly all patients who currently undergo surgery, including all patients at and above our calculated absolute referral thresholds. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):950-958.

The impact of the enhanced recovery pathway and other factors on outcomes and costs following hip and knee replacement: routine data study

Background

There is limited evidence concerning the effectiveness of enhanced recovery programmes in hip and knee replacement surgery, particularly when applied nationwide across a health-care system.

Objectives

To determine the effect of hospital organisation, surgical factors and the enhanced recovery after surgery pathway on patient outcomes and NHS costs of hip and knee replacement.

Design

(1) Statistical analysis of national linked data to explore geographical variations in patient outcomes of surgery. (2) A natural experimental study to determine clinical effectiveness of enhanced recovery after surgery. (3) A qualitative study to identify barriers to, and facilitators of, change. (4) Health economics analysis to establish NHS costs and cost-effectiveness.

Setting

Data from the National Joint Registry, linked to English Hospital Episode Statistics and patient-reported outcome measures in both the geographical variation and natural experiment studies, together with the economic evaluation. The ethnographic study took place in four hospitals in a region of England.

Participants

Qualitative study – 38 health professionals working in hip and knee replacement services in secondary care and 37 patients receiving hip or knee replacement.

Interventions

Natural experiment – implementation of enhanced recovery after surgery at each hospital between 2009 and 2011. Enhanced recovery after surgery is a complex intervention focusing on several areas of patients’ care pathways through surgery: preoperatively (patient is in best possible condition for surgery), perioperatively (patient has best possible management during and after operation) and postoperatively (patient experiences best rehabilitation).

Main outcome measures

Patient-reported pain and function (Oxford Hip Score/Oxford Knee Score); 6-month complications; length of stay; bed-day costs; and revision surgery within 5 years.

Results

Geographical study – there are potentially unwarranted variations in patient outcomes of hip and knee replacement surgery. This variation cannot be explained by differences in patients, case mix, surgical or hospital organisational factors. Qualitative – successful implementation depends on empowering patients to work towards their recovery, providing post-discharge support and promoting successful multidisciplinary team working. Care processes were negotiated between patients and health-care professionals. ‘Good care’ remains an aspiration, particularly in the post-discharge period. Natural experiment – length of stay has declined substantially, pain and function have improved, revision rates are in decline and complication rates remain stable. The introduction of a national enhanced recovery after surgery programme maintained improvement, but did not alter the rate of change already under way. Health economics – costs are high in the year of joint replacement and remain higher in the subsequent year after surgery. There is a strong economic incentive to identify ways of reducing revisions and complications following joint replacement. Published cost-effectiveness evidence supports enhanced recovery pathways as a whole.

Limitations

Short duration of follow-up data prior to enhanced recovery after surgery implementation and missing data, particularly for hospital organisation factors.

Conclusion

No evidence was found to show that enhanced recovery after surgery had a substantial impact on longer-term downwards trends in costs and length of stay. Trends of improving outcomes were seen across all age groups, in those with and without comorbidity, and had begun prior to the formal enhanced recovery after surgery roll-out. Reductions in length of stay have been achieved without adversely affecting patient outcomes, yet, substantial variation remains in outcomes between hospital trusts.

Future work

There is still work to be done to reduce and understand unwarranted variations in outcome between individual hospitals.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017059473.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Deep Learning Preoperatively Predicts Value Metrics for Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty: Development and Validation of an Artificial Neural Network Model

BACKGROUND

The objective is to develop and validate an artificial neural network (ANN) that learns and predicts length of stay (LOS), inpatient charges, and discharge disposition before primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The secondary objective applied the ANN to propose a risk-based, patient-specific payment model (PSPM) commensurate with case complexity.

METHODS

Using data from 175,042 primary TKAs from the National Inpatient Sample and an institutional database, an ANN was developed to predict LOS, charges, and disposition using 15 preoperative variables. Outcome metrics included accuracy and area under the curve for a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model uncertainty was stratified by All Patient Refined comorbidity indices in establishing a risk-based PSPM.

RESULTS

The dynamic model demonstrated "learning" in the first 30 training rounds with areas under the curve of 74.8%, 82.8%, and 76.1% for LOS, charges, and discharge disposition, respectively. The PSPM demonstrated that as patient comorbidity increased, risk increased by 2.0%, 21.8%, and 82.6% for moderate, major, and severe comorbidities, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our deep learning model demonstrated "learning" with acceptable validity, reliability, and responsiveness in predicting value metrics, offering the ability to preoperatively plan for TKA episodes of care. This model may be applied to a PSPM proposing tiered reimbursements reflecting case complexity.

Bundled Care for Hip Fractures: A Machine-Learning Approach to an Untenable Patient-Specific Payment Model

OBJECTIVES

With the transition to a value-based model of care delivery, bundled payment models have been implemented with demonstrated success in elective lower extremity joint arthroplasty. Yet, hip fracture outcomes are dependent on patient-level factors that may not be optimized preoperatively due to acuity of care. The objectives of this study are to (1) develop a supervised naive Bayes machine-learning algorithm using preoperative patient data to predict length of stay and cost after hip fracture and (2) propose a patient-specific payment model to project reimbursements based on patient comorbidities.

METHODS

Using the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database, we studied 98,562 Medicare patients who underwent operative management for hip fracture from 2009 to 2016. A naive Bayes machine-learning model was built using age, sex, ethnicity, race, type of admission, risk of mortality, and severity of illness as predictive inputs.

RESULTS

Accuracy was demonstrated at 76.5% and 79.0% for length of stay and cost, respectively. Performance was 88% for length of stay and 89% for cost. Model error analysis showed increasing model error with increasing risk of mortality, which thus increased the risk-adjusted payment for each risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our naive Bayes machine-learning algorithm provided excellent accuracy and responsiveness in the prediction of length of stay and cost of an episode of care for hip fracture using preoperative variables. This model demonstrates that the cost of delivery of hip fracture care is dependent on largely nonmodifiable patient-specific factors, likely making bundled care an implausible payment model for hip fractures.

Exploring variation in patient access of post-discharge physiotherapy following total hip and knee arthroplasty under a choice based system in the UK: an observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess a targeted 'therapy as required' model of post-discharge outpatient physiotherapy provision. Specifically, we investigated what proportion of patients accessed post-discharge physiotherapy following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA), whether accessing therapy was associated with post-arthroplasty patient reported outcomes and whether it was possible to predict which patients would access post-discharge physiotherapy from pre-operative data.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational, longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Single National Health Service orthopaedic teaching hospital in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

1395 patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty and 1374 patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Self-reported access of post-discharge physiotherapy, the Oxford Hip or Knee Score, EuroQol 5-dimension questionnaire and post-operative surgical episode satisfaction metric.

RESULTS

662 (48.2%) patients with TKA and 493 (35.3%) patients with THA accessed additional post-discharge physiotherapy. Patient-reported outcomes (p<0.001) and surgical episode satisfaction (p=0.001) in both THA and TKA were higher in patients that did not participate in post-discharge physiotherapy. Regression models using pre-operative symptom burden and demographic data predicted post-discharge therapy access with an accuracy of only 17% greater than chance in patients with THA and 7% greater than chance in patients with TKA.

CONCLUSIONS

In a choice-based service model of 'therapy as required' following hip and knee arthroplasty only a third of THA and half of TKA patients accessed post-discharge therapy. Patients who did not access physiotherapy reported greater post-operative outcomes. This variation in the need for post-discharge physiotherapy suggests that targeting of rehabilitation may be a cost-effective model, however it was not possible to reliably predict which patients would access post-discharge physiotherapy from pre-operative data.

Predictors of return to desired activity 12 months following unicompartmental and total knee arthroplasty

Background and purpose - 1 in 5 patients are dissatisfied following unicompartmental or total knee arthroplasty (UKA or TKA). This may be partly explained by failing to return to desired activity post-arthroplasty. To facilitate return to desired activity, a greater understanding of predictors of return to desired activity in UKA and TKA patients is needed. We compared rates of return to desired activity 12 months following UKA vs. TKA, and identified and compared predictors of return to desired activity 12 months following UKA vs. TKA. Patients and methods - Patients were prospectively recruited from 2 hospitals prior to undergoing UKA or primary TKA. Patients reported preoperatively the activity/activities that were limited due to their knee that they wished to return to after arthroplasty. At 12-months postoperatively, patients reported whether they had returned to these activities ('return to desired activity'). Preoperative predictors evaluated were age, sex, BMI, education, comorbidities, pain expectations, Oxford Knee Score (OKS), UCLA Activity Score, and EQ-5D. Generalized linear models assessed the relationship between potential predictors and return-to-desired-activity. Results - The response rate of all patients eligible for 12-month follow-up was 74%. TKA patients (n = 575) were older (mean (SD) 70 (9) vs. 67 (10)) with a greater BMI (31 (6) vs. 30 (5)) than patients undergoing UKA (n = 420). 75% of UKA and 59% of TKA patients returned to desired activity. TKA patients had a greater risk of non-return to desired activity than patients undergoing UKA (risk ratio (95% CI) 1.5 (1.2-1.8)). Predictors of non-return to desired activity following UKA were worse OKS (0.96 (0.93-0.99)), higher BMI (1.04 (1.01-1.08)), and worse expectations (1.9 (1.2-2.8)). Predictors of non-return to desired activity following TKA were worse EQ-5D (0.53 (0.33-0.85)) and worse OKS (0.98 (0.96-1.0)). Interpretation - UKA patients were more likely to return to desired activity than TKA patients. Predictors of return to desired activity differed following UKA and TKA. Optimizing selection of arthroplasty procedure based on patient characteristics and targeting predictors of poor outcome may facilitate return to desired activity with potential to enhance postoperative satisfaction.

Machine Learning and Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty: Patient Forecasting for a Patient-Specific Payment Model

BACKGROUND

Value-based and patient-specific care represent 2 critical areas of focus that have yet to be fully reconciled by today's bundled care model. Using a predictive naïve Bayesian model, the objectives of this study were (1) to develop a machine-learning algorithm using preoperative big data to predict length of stay (LOS) and inpatient costs after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and (2) to propose a tiered patient-specific payment model that reflects patient complexity for reimbursement.

METHODS

Using 141,446 patients undergoing primary TKA from an administrative database from 2009 to 2016, a Bayesian model was created and trained to forecast LOS and cost. Algorithm performance was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the percent accuracy. A proposed risk-based patient-specific payment model was derived based on outputs.

RESULTS

The machine-learning algorithm required age, race, gender, and comorbidity scores ("risk of illness" and "risk of morbidity") to demonstrate a high degree of validity with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7822 and 0.7382 for LOS and cost. As patient complexity increased, cost add-ons increased in tiers of 3%, 10%, and 15% for moderate, major, and extreme mortality risks, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our machine-learning algorithm derived from an administrative database demonstrated excellent validity in predicting LOS and costs before primary TKA and has broad value-based applications, including a risk-based patient-specific payment model.

Knee replacement

Knee replacement surgery is one of the most commonly done and cost-effective musculoskeletal surgical procedures. The numbers of cases done continue to grow worldwide, with substantial variation in utilisation rates across regions and countries. The main indication for surgery remains painful knee osteoarthritis with reduced function and quality of life. The threshold for intervention is not well defined, and is influenced by many factors including patient and surgeon preference. Most patients have a very good clinical outcome after knee replacement, but multiple studies have reported that 20% or more of patients do not. So despite excellent long-term survivorship, more work is required to enhance this procedure and development is rightly focused on increasing the proportion of patients who have successful pain relief after surgery. Changing implant design has historically been a target for improving outcome, but there is greater recognition that improvements can be achieved by better implantation methods, avoiding complications, and improving perioperative care for patients, such as enhanced recovery programmes. New technologies are likely to advance future knee replacement care further, but their introduction must be regulated and monitored with greater rigour to ensure patient safety.

Assessment and management of infected total knee replacements

Infection following total knee replacement surgery is a challenging and devastating complication. Clinical assessment including history, examination, radiographs, blood tests and knee aspirations helps to establish the diagnosis. Revision surgery is typically required to eradicate infection and restore function. This has traditionally been performed through two-stage revision surgery, although single-stage revision surgery is gaining popularity with comparable results in carefully selected patients. This article reviews the clinical assessment and principles of surgical management of infected total knee replacements.