Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-based risk prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes: Ready for prime time?

GDM-BC: Non-invasive body composition dataset for intelligent prediction of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) refers to any degree of impaired glucose tolerance with onset or first recognition during pregnancy. As a high-prevalence disease, GDM damages the health of both pregnant women and fetuses in the short and long term. Accurate and cost-effective recognition of GDM is quite crucial to reduce the risk and economic pressure of this disease. However, existing datasets for the prediction of GDM primarily focus on clinical and biochemical parameters, including a mass of invasive indexes. These variables are hard to obtain and do not always perform well in the prediction of GDM. In this paper, we introduce a large-scale non-invasive body composition dataset, called GDM-BC, for intelligent risk prediction of GDM. Specifically, it contains a cohort of 39,438 pregnant women, of whom 7777 (19.7%) were subsequently diagnosed with GDM. Besides, our dataset includes a large number of body composition indexes that can be acquired non-invasively. In addition, we perform several traditional machine learning and deep learning methods on the GDM-BC dataset, among which the Residual Attention Fully Connected Network (RAFNet) performs the best, achieving an AUC (area under the ROC curve) of 0.920. The results show that our dataset is marvelous and creates a new perspective on the prediction of GDM. Our models may offer an opportunity to establish a cost-effective screening approach for identifying low-risk pregnant women based on body composition data. We believe that our proposed GDM-BC dataset will advance future research on risk prediction for GDM, as well as provide new insights for intelligent prediction of other high-incidence pregnancy-related diseases such as gestational hypertension.

Risk factor analysis and predictive model construction of lean MAFLD: a cross-sectional study of a health check-up population in China

AIM

Cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality rates are high in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). The objective of this study was to analyze the risk factors and differences between lean MAFLD and overweight MAFLD, and establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting lean MAFLD.

METHODS

This retrospective cross-sectional study included 4363 participants who underwent annual health checkup at Yuyao from 2019 to 2022. The study population was stratified into three groups: non-MAFLD, lean MAFLD (defined as the presence of fatty liver changes as determined by ultrasound in individuals with a BMI < 25 kg/m2), and overweight MAFLD (BMI ≥ 25.0 kg/m2). Subsequent modeling analysis was conducted in a population that included healthy subjects with < 25 kg/m2 (n = 2104) and subjects with lean MAFLD (n = 849). The study population was randomly split (7:3 ratio) to a training vs. a validation cohort. Risk factors for lean MAFLD was identify by multivariate regression of the training cohort, and used to construct a nomogram to estimate the probability of lean MAFLD. Model performance was examined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and k-fold cross-validation (k = 5). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the prediction model.

RESULTS

The multivariate regression analysis indicated that the triglycerides and glucose index (TyG) was the most significant risk factor for lean MAFLD (OR: 4.03, 95% CI 2.806-5.786). The restricted cubic spline curves (RCS) regression model demonstrated that the relationships between systolic pressure (SBP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), serum urate (UA), total cholesterol (TCHO), triglyceride (TG), triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), and MAFLD were nonlinear and the cutoff values for lean MAFLD and overweight MAFLD were different. The nomogram was constructed based on seven predictors: glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), serum ferritin (SF), ALT, UA, BMI, TyG index, and age. In the validation cohort, the area under the ROC curve was 0.866 (95% CI 0.842-0.891), with 83.8% sensitivity and 76.6% specificity at the optimal cutoff. The PPV and NPV was 63.3% and 90.8%, respectively. Furthermore, we used fivefold cross-validation and the average area under the ROC curve was 0.866 (Figure S3). The calibration curves for the model's predictions and the actual outcomes were in good agreement. The DCA findings demonstrated that the nomogram model was clinically useful throughout a broad threshold probability range.

CONCLUSIONS

Lean and overweight MAFLD exhibit distinct metabolic profiles. The nomogram model developed in this study is designed to assist clinicians in the early identification of high-risk individuals with lean MAFLD, including those with a normal BMI but at metabolic risk, as well as those with abnormal blood lipid, glucose, uric acid or transaminase levels. In addition, this model enhances screening efforts in communities and medical screening centers, ultimately ensuring more timely and effective medical services for patients.

Adverse pregnancy outcomes as a risk factor for new-onset metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in postpartum women: A nationwide study

Background & Aims

Adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) can worsen cardiometabolic risk factors in women, raising their likelihood of developing cardiometabolic diseases at a young age after their initial pregnancy. Nevertheless, there are limited data on the risk of newly developing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in women who have had APOs. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of new-onset MASLD after experiencing APOs.

Methods

Singleton pregnant women who underwent national health screenings 1 year before pregnancy and 1 year after delivery were included in this study. APOs were defined as the presence of at least one of the followings: hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), preterm birth, low birth weight, and placental abruption. The primary outcome was new-onset MASLD based on the presence of APOs.

Results

Among 80,037 study participants, 9,320 (11.6%) experienced APOs during pregnancy. Women who experienced APOs had an increased risk of developing new-onset MASLD after delivery even after adjustments for various covariates (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.58, 95% CI 1.45-1.72). In particular, women who experienced either HDP or GDM showed a significantly increased risk of developing new-onset MASLD (adjusted OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.81-2.67, for HDP and adjusted OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.65-2.03, for GDM). Moreover, there was a tendency toward an increased risk of new-onset MASLD according to the number of APOs (p <0.001 for trend of odds).

Conclusions

APOs were associated with the risk of new-onset MASLD after delivery. Specifically, only HDP or GDM were identified as risk factors for new-onset MASLD.

Impact and implications

This nationwide cohort study confirms that postpartum women with a history of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) are at an increased risk of developing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). These findings may bring us one step closer to understanding the exact mechanisms underlying such an important association between prior APOs and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among postpartum women. This bidirectional association between APOs and MASLD highlights the importance of considering pregnancy history in assessing CVD risk in women. It suggests a need for closer monitoring and lifestyle interventions for women with a history of APOs to reduce the risk of MASLD and subsequent CVD complications.

Nonalcoholic liver disease: Epidemiology, risk factors, natural history, and management strategies

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is now the most common chronic liver disease worldwide and a leading indication for liver transplantation in the United States. NAFLD encompasses a heterogeneous clinicopathologic spectrum, ranging from nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and progressive fibrosis, which can lead to end-stage liver disease including cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer. Predictive models suggest that over 100 million adults in the United States will have NAFLD by 2030, representing over a third of the population. In this manuscript, we provide an overview of NAFLD risk factors, natural history (including hepatic and extra-hepatic outcomes), diagnosis, and current management strategies.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease as a risk factor for adverse outcomes in subsequent pregnancy: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

A recent international expert consensus opinion suggested that metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) replaces nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), since MAFLD is a better predictor of cardiovascular disease. We estimated the prevalence of FLD in fertile females and evaluated the clinical impact of either NAFLD or MAFLD on maternal and fetal outcomes during subsequent pregnancy.

METHODS

The study population included fertile females who underwent health examinations and became pregnant within 1 year of health examination. Hepatic steatosis was defined as a fatty liver index of ≥ 30. The fertile females were divided into four groups: neither-FLD, NAFLD-only, MAFLD-only, and both-FLDs. During subsequent pregnancy, the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including gestational diabetes, pregnancy-associated hypertension, preterm birth, and low birthweight, were compared among the four groups.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 762,401 females, including 720,606 with neither-FLD, 318 with NAFLD-only, 14,371 with MAFLD-only, and 27,106 with both-FLDs. Compared to females with neither-FLD, the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes was higher in females with any FLD, with an adjusted OR of 1.73 (95% CI 1.25-2.41) in the NALFD-only group, 2.65 (2.53-2.77) in the MAFLD-only group, and 2.39 (2.31-2.48) in the both-FLDs group. Pregnancy outcomes (cesarean delivery, gestational diabetes, and low birthweight) were worse in females with MAFLD compared with NAFLD.

CONCLUSION

Any form of FLD is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. These data suggest that MAFLD is associated with a higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes for both mother and fetus than NAFLD.

Case Report:Pregnancy and birth in a mild phenotype of Alström syndrome

Background: Alström syndrome (AS) is an ultrarare multisystemic progressive disease caused by autosomal recessive variations of the ALMS1 gene (2p13). AS is characterized by double sensory impairment, cardiomyopathy, childhood obesity, extreme insulin resistance, early nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, renal dysfunction, respiratory disease, endocrine and urologic disorders. In female AS patients, hyperandrogenism has been described but fertility issues and conception have not been investigated so far.

Case: This case report describes the spontaneous conception, pregnancy, and birth in a 27-year-old woman with AS, characterized by a mild phenotype with late onset of visual impairment, residual perception of light, and hypertension. Before pregnancy, menses were regular with increased levels of dihydrotestosterone and androstanediol glucuronide in the follicular phase, and the ovaries and endometrium were normal during vaginal ultrasound. A thorough clinical follow-up of the maternal and fetal conditions was carried out. A weight gain of 10 kg during pregnancy was recorded, and serial blood and urine tests were all within the normal range, except for mild anemia. The course of pregnancy was uneventful up to 34 weeks of gestation when preeclampsia developed with an abnormally high level of blood pressure and edema in the lower limbs. At 35 weeks + 3 days of gestation, an urgent cesarean section was performed, and a healthy male weighing 1,950 g was born. Histological examination of the placenta showed partial signs of flow obstruction, limited abruption areas, congested fetal vessels and villi, and a small single infarcted area.

Conclusion: The present case demonstrates for the first time that conceiving is possible for patients with ALMS. Particular attention should be given to the management of AS systemic comorbidities through the course of pregnancy.