Planning for resilience: Incorporating scenario and model uncertainty and trade-offs when prioritizing management of climate refugia

Climate change has become the greatest threat to the world's ecosystems. Locating and managing areas that contribute to the survival of key species under climate change is critical for the persistence of ecosystems in the future. Here, we identify 'Climate Priority' sites as coral reefs exposed to relatively low levels of climate stress that will be more likely to persist in the future. We present the first analysis of uncertainty in climate change scenarios and models, along with multiple objectives, in a marine spatial planning exercise and offer a comprehensive approach to incorporating uncertainty and trade-offs in any ecosystem. We first described each site using environmental characteristics that are associated with a higher chance of persistence (larval connectivity, hurricane influence, and acute and chronic temperature conditions in the past and the future). Future temperature increases were assessed using downscaled data under four different climate scenarios (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5) and 57 model runs. We then prioritized sites for intervention (conservation, improved management or restoration) using robust decision-making approaches that select sites that will have a benign climate under most climate scenarios and models. The modelling work is novel because it solves two important issues. (1) It considers trade-offs between multiple planning objectives explicitly through Pareto analyses and (2) It makes use of all the uncertainty around future climate change. Priority intervention sites identified by the model were verified and refined through local stakeholder engagement including assessments of local threats, ecological conditions and government priorities. The workflow is presented for the Insular Caribbean and Florida, and at the national level for Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Our approach allows managers to consider uncertainty and multiple objectives for climate-smart spatial management in coral reefs or any ecosystem across the globe.

Goliath grouper Epinephelus itajara oral history, use, and conservation status in the Mexican Caribbean and Campeche Bank

The Atlantic goliath grouper Epinephelus itajara is highly vulnerable to overfishing, yet little is known of its population status in Campeche Bank (southern Gulf of Mexico) and the Mexican Caribbean. By reviewing landings records, historical literature, and the local ecological knowledge of fishers, we documented historical practices, uses, and changes in the abundance and distribution of the goliath grouper in these regions. In both the Mexican Caribbean and Campeche Bank, goliath grouper populations were notably impacted by commercial fishing activities in the 1970s and 1980s. The catches during this period could only be sustained for a few years, after which the fishery collapsed. Our results from Campeche Bank indicate that populations persist in an area currently occupied by oil platforms. In the Mexican Caribbean, the extirpation of the goliath grouper may be close at hand, with local exceptions like that of Chetumal Bay. The results of our study indicate that the local goliath grouper populations are in critical danger of extinction, which must be taken into account during the next IUCN Red List regional assessment. In addition, the goliath grouper should be included in the Mexican list for endangered species (NOM-059-SEMARNAT).

Molecular identification of Atlantic goliath grouper Epinephelus itajara (Lichtenstein, 1822) (Perciformes: Epinephelidae) and related commercial species applying multiplex PCR

ABSTRACT The Atlantic goliath grouper, Epinephelus itajara , is a critically endangered species, threatened by illegal fishing and the destruction of its habitats. A number of other closely related grouper species found in the western Atlantic are also fished intensively. While some countries apply rigorous legislation, illegal harvesting followed by the falsification of fish products, which impedes the correct identification of the species, is a common practice, allowing the catch to be marketed as a different grouper species. In this case, molecular techniques represent an important tool for the monitoring and regulation of fishery practices, and are essential for the forensic identification of a number of different species. In the present study, species-specific primers were developed for the Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I gene, which were applied in a multiplex PCR for the simultaneous identification of nine different species of Epinephelidae: Epinephelus itajara , E. quinquefasciatus , E. morio , Hyporthodus flavolimbatus , H. niveatus , Mycteroperca acutirostris , M. bonaci , M. marginata , and M. microlepis . Multiplex PCR is a rapid, reliable and cost-effective procedure for the identification of commercially-valuable endangered fish species, and may represent a valuable tool for the regulation and sustainable management of fishery resources.