Climate match is key to predict range expansion of the world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates

Understanding the determinants of the range expansion of invasive alien species is crucial for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Nevertheless, we still lack a global picture of the potential factors influencing the invaded range expansion across taxonomic groups, especially for the world's worst invaders with high ecological and economic impacts. Here, by extensively collecting data on 363 distributional ranges of 19 of world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates across 135 invaded administrative jurisdictions, we observed remarkable variations in the range expansion across species and taxonomic groups. After controlling for taxonomic and geographic pseudoreplicates, model averaging analyses based on generalized additive mixed-effect models showed that species in invaded regions having climates more similar to those of their native ranges tended to undergo a larger range expansion. In addition, as proxies of propagule pressure and human-assisted transportation, the number of introduction events and the road network density were also important predictors facilitating the range expansion. Further variance partitioning analyses validated the predominant role of climate match in explaining the range expansion. Our study demonstrated that regions with similar climates to their native ranges could still be prioritized to prevent the spread of invasive species under the sustained global change.

Predator suppression by a toxic invader does not cascade to prey due to predation by alternate predators

Invasive species often have catastrophic direct effects on native species through increased competition and predation. Less well understood are indirect, cascading effects across trophic levels. To reveal trophic disruptions caused by invasive species, it is necessary to document interactions between species at different trophic levels and across guilds. Here, we take this approach to quantify the impact of the invasion of cane toads at a riparian site in the Kimberley, northwest Australia. These toads are toxic to many native vertebrate predators and following toad arrival we observed the expected severe population decline in monitor lizards. Contrary to expectations however, this did not facilitate species in the next trophic level down: the abundance of their reptilian prey, as well as nest success of a songbird whose nests were predominantly depredated by monitor lizards, remained unchanged. Instead, detailed observations suggest a change in the suite of nest predators, with monitor lizards being replaced by other—mainly avian—predators, possibly reflecting their release from competitors that are more efficient nest predators. Hence, our findings highlight complex indirect effects of an invasive species across trophic levels and indicate that trophic cascades can go undetected when failing to include direct observations on predator–prey interactions.