Validation of the 2020 AHA/ACC Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death in Chinese Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

The China Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Project (CHCMP): The Rationale and Design of a Multicenter, Prospective, Registry Cohort Study

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is associated with adverse outcomes, such as heart failure, arrhythmia, and mortality. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a common cause of death in HCM patients, and identification of patients at a high risk of SCD is crucial in clinical practice. The China Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Project is a hospital-based, multicenter, prospective, registry cohort study of HCM patients, covering a total of 3000 participants and with a 5-year follow-up plan. A large number of demographic characteristics and clinical data will be fully collected to identify prognostic factors in Chinese HCM patients. Furthermore, the main purpose of this study is to integrate demographic and clinical characteristics to establish new 5-year SCD risk predictive equations for Chinese HCM patients by the use of machine learning technologies. The project has crucial clinical significance for risk stratification and determination of HCM patients with high risk of adverse outcomes. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ChiCTR2300070909.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of left atrial strain in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and its prognostic utility

Despite advances in noninvasive imaging modalities to identify atrial fibrillation (AF) risk in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM), there is a paucity of evidence concerning the impact of low Left Atrial strain (LAS) on AF and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) incidence in these patients. This study investigated the diagnostic and prognostic significance of LAS in predicting AF and MACE in HCM. Findings revealed lower LA reservoir (MD: -11.79, 95% CI -14.83, -8.74; p<0.00001), booster (MD: -4.10, 95% CI -6.29, -1.91; p=0.0002), and conduit (MD: -7.52, 95% CI -9.39, -5.65; p<0.00001) strains in HCM patients versus healthy controls, and also indicated a significant association between low LA reservoir/conduit/booster strain and the development of new AF as well as MACE prevalence in HCM patients. The results from this study suggest the valuable role of LA strain in HCM and its utility in predicting the development of new AF and cardiac events in HCM patients.

Predicting Risk of Cardiac Arrest in Young Asian Americans: Insights from an Artificial Neural Network Analysis of the Nationwide Cohort

We used the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to identify predictors of Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) in a national cohort of young Asian patients in the United States. The National Inpatient Sample (2019) was used to identify young Asians (18-44-year-old) who were hospitalized with SCA. The neural network's predicted criteria for SCA were selected. After eliminating missing data, young Asians (n = 65,413) were randomly divided into training (n = 45,094) and testing (n = 19347) groups. Training data (70%) was used to calibrate ANN while testing data (30%) was utilized to assess the algorithm's accuracy. To determine ANN's performance in predicting SCA, we compared the frequency of incorrect prediction between training and testing data and measured the area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC). The 2019 young Asian cohort had 327,065 admissions (median age 32 years; 84.2% female), with SCA accounting for 0.21%. The exact rate of error in predictions vs. tests was shown by training data (0.2% vs 0.2%). In descending order, the normalized importance of predictors to accurately predict SCA in young adults included prior history of cardiac arrest, sex, age, diabetes, anxiety disorders, prior coronary artery bypass grafting, hypertension, congenital heart disease, income, peripheral vascular disease, and cancer. The AUC was 0.821, indicating an excellent ANN model for SCA prediction. Our ANN models performed excellently in revealing the order of important predictors of SCA in young Asian American patients. These findings could have a considerable impact on clinical practice to develop risk prediction models to improve the survival outcome in high-risk patients.

Validation of the Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death in Chinese Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Accurate identification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) event is challenging. The objective of this study was to validate the three SCD risk stratifications recommended by the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline, the 2020 American Heart Association /American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) guideline, and the 2022 ESC guideline in Chinese patients with HCM. Our study population are made up of a cohort of 856 HCM patients without prior SCD events. The endpoint was defined as SCD or equivalent events (successful resuscitation after cardiac arrest or appropriate ICD shock for ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation). During a median follow-up of 43 months, SCD endpoints occurred in 44 (5.1%) patients. A total of 34 (77.3%) patients suffering from SCD events were classified correctly into high-risk groups by the 2020 AHA/ACC guideline, 27(61.4%) by the 2022 ESC guideline, and 13 (29.6%) by the 2014 ESC guideline. The C-statistic of the 2020 AHA/ACC guideline was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60-0.76), which performed better than the 2022 ESC guideline (0.65: 95% CI, 0.56-0.73), and the 2014 ESC guideline (0.58: 95% CI, 0.48-0.67). The 2020 AHA/ACC guideline displayed better discrimination for SCD risk stratification in Chinese HCM patients than the other two guidelines, with a higher sensitivity but lower specificity.

Sudden Death Risk Assessment in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Across the Lifespan: Reconciling the American and European Approaches

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most prevalent inherited cardiac disease. Since the modern description of HCM more than seven decades ago, great focus has been placed on preventing its most catastrophic complication: sudden cardiac death (SCD). Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) have been recognized to provide effective prophylactic therapy. Over the years, two leading societies, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC), have proposed risk stratification models to assess SCD in adults. European guidelines rely on a risk calculator, the HCM Risk-SCD, while American guidelines propose a stand-alone risk factor approach. Recently, risk prediction models were also developed in the pediatric population. This article reviews the latest recommendations on the risk stratification of SCD in HCM and summarises current indications for ICD use.

Should lethal arrhythmias in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy be predicted using non-electrophysiological methods?

While sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is due to arrhythmias, the guidelines for prediction of SCD are based solely on non-electrophysiological methods. This study aims to stimulate thinking about whether the interests of patients with HCM are better served by using current, 'risk factor', methods of prediction or by further development of electrophysiological methods to determine arrhythmic risk. Five published predictive studies of SCD in HCM, which contain sufficient data to permit analysis, were analysed to compute receiver operating characteristics together with their confidence bounds to compare their formal prediction either by bootstrapping or Monte Carlo analysis. Four are based on clinical risk factors, one with additional MRI analysis, and were regarded as exemplars of the risk factor approach. The other used an electrophysiological method and directly compared this method to risk factors in the same patients. Prediction methods that use conventional clinical risk factors and MRI have low predictive capacities that will only detect 50-60% of patients at risk with a 15-30% false positive rate [area under the curve (AUC) = ∼0.7], while the electrophysiological method detects 90% of events with a 20% false positive rate (AUC = ∼0.89). Given improved understanding of complex arrhythmogenesis, arrhythmic SCD is likely to be more accurately predictable using electrophysiologically based approaches as opposed to current guidelines and should drive further development of electrophysiologically based methods.

Differing strategies for sudden death prevention in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Sudden death (SD) has traditionally been the most visible and feared complication of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Substantial progress in reducing the occurrence of these catastrophic events represents a new paradigm in disease management. Prevention of SD in HCM has resulted from introduction of primary prevention ICDs that reliably terminate life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias, as well as a matured risk stratification algorithm capable of reliably identifying those patients at highest risk. This initiative has been a major determinant of reducing HCM-related mortality to a low rate of 0.5%/year. In such a heterogeneous heart disease as HCM, no perfect risk stratification strategy is possible, and available approaches differ in terms of sensitivity and specificity for identifying patients with SD risk. Major cardiovascular societies, American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology in the USA and European Society of Cardiology in Europe have promoted different risk stratification guidelines creating the potential for judging SD risk in a given HCM patient differently based on commitment to a particular societal guideline or country of residence. In this review, we provide a critical but balanced assessment of these two divergent SD prevention strategies with regard to their respective strengths and weaknesses, as a guide to clinicians directly engaged in this important management issue.

Updated risk assessments for sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetic disease associated with a risk of malignant ventricular tachyarrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Assessment of the SCD risk is crucial for its clinical management, and there has been considerable interest in developing risk stratification strategies. An implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is a life-saving treatment for patients with HCM who are at a high-risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmias and SCD. However, a substantial number of ICD recipients experience adverse effects arising from inappropriate device therapy and implant-related complications. This has led to numerous investigations of the risk of SCD and the indications for ICD implantation. American guidelines were recently updated to include new risk markers, including left ventricular systolic dysfunction, apical aneurysm, and extensive late gadolinium enhancement, while European guidelines recommend individualized estimated 5-year SCD risk assessment models. Studies evaluating other risk factors for SCD in patients with HCM have also been published. Drawing on recent guidelines and publications on clinical risk factors, we focus this review on updated risk assessments for SCD with ICD therapy in patients with HCM.