Association Between Serum Uric Acid and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Different Fasting Blood Glucose Patterns: A Case-Control Study

Development and Internal Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Carotid Atherosclerosis in the Hyperuricemia Population

Purpose

The aim of this study was to identify independent risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) in a population with hyperuricemia (HUA) and develop a CAS risk prediction model.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective study included 3579 HUA individuals who underwent health examinations, including carotid ultrasonography, at the Zhenhai Lianhua Hospital in Ningbo, China, in 2020. All participants were randomly assigned to the training and internal validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors associated with CAS. The characteristic variables were screened using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator combined with 10-fold cross-validation, and the resulting model was visualized by a nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the risk model were validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

Results

Sex, age, mean red blood cell volume, and fasting blood glucose were identified as independent risk factors for CAS in the HUA population. Age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, serum creatinine, fasting blood glucose, total triiodothyronine, and direct bilirubin, were screened to construct a CAS risk prediction model. In the training and internal validation sets, the risk prediction model showed an excellent discriminative ability with the area under the curve of 0.891 and 0.901, respectively, and a high level of fit. Decision curve analysis results demonstrated that the risk prediction model could be beneficial when the threshold probabilities were 1-87% and 1-100% in the training and internal validation sets, respectively.

Conclusion

We developed and internally validated a risk prediction model for CAS in a population with HUA, thereby contributing to the CAS early identification.

Predicting the risk of subclinical atherosclerosis based on interpretable machine models in a Chinese T2DM population

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a global public health concern. Identifying and preventing subclinical atherosclerosis (SCAS), an early indicator of CVD, is critical for improving cardiovascular outcomes. This study aimed to construct interpretable machine learning models for predicting SCAS risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients.

Methods

This study included 3084 T2DM individuals who received health care at Zhenhai Lianhua Hospital, Ningbo, China, from January 2018 to December 2022. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator combined with random forest-recursive feature elimination were used to screen for characteristic variables. Linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, Naive Bayes, random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting were employed in constructing risk prediction models for SCAS in T2DM patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was employed to assess the predictive capacity of the model through 10-fold cross-validation. Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations were utilized to interpret the best-performing model.

Results

The percentage of SCAS was 38.46% (n=1186) in the study population. Fourteen variables, including age, white blood cell count, and basophil count, were identified as independent risk factors for SCAS. Nine predictors, including age, albumin, and total protein, were screened for the construction of risk prediction models. After validation, the random forest model exhibited the best clinical predictive value in the training set with an AUC of 0.729 (95% CI: 0.709-0.749), and it also demonstrated good predictive value in the internal validation set [AUC: 0.715 (95% CI: 0.688-0.742)]. The model interpretation revealed that age, albumin, total protein, total cholesterol, and serum creatinine were the top five variables contributing to the prediction model.

Conclusion

The construction of SCAS risk models based on the Chinese T2DM population contributes to its early prevention and intervention, which would reduce the incidence of adverse cardiovascular prognostic events.

Dieting alleviates hyperuricemia and organ injuries in uricase-deficient rats via down-regulating cell cycle pathway

Dieting is a basic treatment for lowering hyperuricemia. Here, we aimed to determine the optimal amount of dietary food that lowers serum uric acid (SUA) without modifying the dietary ingredients in rats. Increased SUA was found in food-deprived 45-day-old uricase-deficient rats (Kunming-DY rats), and the optimal amount of dietary food (75% dietary intake) to lower SUA was established by controlling the amount of food given daily from 25% to 100% for 2 weeks. In addition to lowering SUA by approximately 22.5 ± 20.5%, the optimal amount of dietary food given for 2 weeks inhibited urine uric acid excretion, lowered the uric acid content in multiple organs, improved renal function, lowered serum triglyceride, alleviated organ injuries (e.g., liver, kidney and intestinal tract) at the histological level, and down-regulated the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genome (KEGG) pathway of the cell cycle (ko04110). Taken together, these results demonstrate that 75% dietary food effectively lowers the SUA level without modifying dietary ingredients and alleviates the injuries resulting from uricase deficiency or hyperuricemia, the mechanism of which is associated with the down-regulation of the cell cycle pathway.

Association between serum uric acid levels and atrial fibrillation in different fasting glucose patterns: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown both dysglycaemia and hyperuricemia are associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), while the relationship between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and AF in different fasting glucose patterns (FBG) is unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the association between SUA and AF in different FBG patterns.

METHODS

A total of 1840 patients in this case-control study were enrolled, including 920 AF patients and 920 controls. Patients were divided into three groups according to the different FBG patterns: normoglycemic, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and diabetes mellitus (DM). Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to evaluate the relationship between SUA and AF in different FBG patterns. Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation between SUA and metabolic factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve models indicated the diagnostic efficiency of SUA for diagnosing AF.

RESULTS

SUA was independently associated with AF after adjusting for all confounding factors in different FBG patterns(normoglycemic: OR=1.313, 95% CI:1.120-1.539; IFG: OR=1.386, 95% CI:1.011-1.898; DM: OR=1.505, 95% CI:1.150-1.970). Pearson's correlation analysis suggested that SUA in AF patients was correlated with several different metabolic factors in different FBG patterns (p<0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that SUA in the normoglycemic group combined with CHD and APOB [AUC: 0.906 (95% CI: 0.888-0.923)], in the IFG group combined with CHD and Scr [AUC: 0.863 (95% CI: 0.820-0.907)], in the DM group combined with CHD and SBP [AUC: 0.858 (95% CI: 0.818-0.898)] had the highest AUC for predicting AF.

CONCLUSION

Findings implied a significant association between SUA and AF in different FBG patterns and provide specific models combined with other factors (CHD, APOB, SCr, SBP), which might contribute to the diagnosis of AF.

Construction and Validation of a Model for Predicting Impaired Fasting Glucose Based on More Than 4000 General Population

Purpose

Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is associated with an increased risk of multiple diseases. Therefore, the early identification and intervention of IFG are particularly significant. Our study aims to construct and validate a clinical and laboratory-based nomogram (CLN) model for predicting IFG risk.

Patients and Methods

This cross-sectional study collected information on health check-up subjects. Risk predictors were screened mainly by the LASSO regression analysis and were applied to construct the CLN model. Furthermore, we showed examples of applications. Then, the accuracy of the CLN model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values, and the calibration curve of the CLN model in the training set and validation set, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to estimate the level of clinical benefit. Furthermore, the performance of the CLN model was evaluated in the independent validation dataset.

Results

In the model development dataset, 2340 subjects were randomly assigned to the training set (N = 1638) and validation set (N = 702). Six predictors significantly associated with IFG were screened and used in the construction of the CLN model, a subject was randomly selected, and the risk of developing IFG was predicted to be 83.6% by using the CLN model. The AUC values of the CLN model were 0.783 in the training set and 0.789 in the validation set. The calibration curve demonstrated good concordance. DCA showed that the CLN model has good clinical application. We further performed independent validation (N = 1875), showed an AUC of 0.801, with the good agreement and clinical diagnostic value.

Conclusion

We developed and validated the CLN model that could predict the risk of IFG in the general population. It not only facilitates the diagnosis and treatment of IFG but also helps to reduce the medical and economic burdens of IFG-related diseases.