Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.

Genomic Analyses of Wild and Cultivated Bacanora Agave (Agave angustifolia var. pacifica) Reveal Inbreeding, Few Signs of Cultivation History and Shallow Population Structure

Due to the recent increase in demand for agave-based beverages, many wild agave populations have experienced rapid decline and fragmentation, whereas cultivated plants are now managed at monocultural plantations, in some cases involving clonal propagation. We examined the relative effect of migration, genetic drift, natural selection and human activities on the genetic repertoire of Agave angustifolia var. pacifica, an agave used for bacanora (an alcoholic spirit similar to tequila) production in northwestern Mexico. We sampled 34 wild and cultivated sites and used over eleven thousand genome-wide SNPs. We found shallow genetic structure among wild samples, although we detected differentiation between coastal and inland sites. Surprisingly, no differentiation was found between cultivated and wild populations. Moreover, we detected moderate inbreeding (F_IS ~ 0.13) and similar levels of genomic diversity in wild and cultivated agaves. Nevertheless, the cultivated plants had almost no private alleles and presented evidence of clonality. The overall low genetic structure in A. angustifolia var. pacifica is apparently the result of high dispersibility promoted by pollinators and the possibility of clonal reproduction. Incipient cultivation history and reliance on wild seeds and plants are probably responsible for the observed patterns of high genetic connectivity and considerable diversity in cultivated samples.

Range Size and Niche Breadth as Predictors of Climate-Induced Habitat Change in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

While there is mounting evidence that ongoing changes in the climate system are shifting species ranges poleward and to higher altitudes, responses to climate change vary considerably between species. In general, it can be expected that species responses to climate change largely depend on how broad their ecological niches are, but evidence is still scant. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted future climate change on the availability of suitable habitat for 14 Epipactis (Orchidaceae) species, and tested whether habitat specialists would experience greater changes in the extent of their habitats than habitat generalists. We used Maxent to model the ecological niche of each species in terms of climate, soil, elevation and land-use and projected it onto climate scenarios predicted for 2061–2080. To test the hypothesis that temperate terrestrial orchid species with small ranges or small niche breadths may be at greater risk under climate change than species with wide ranges or large niche breadths, we related niche breadth in both geographic and environmental space to changes in size and location of suitable habitat. The habitat distributions of half of the species shifted northwards in future projections. The area of suitable habitat increased for eight species but decreased for the remaining six species. If expansion at the leading edge of the distribution was not possible, the area of suitable habitat decreased for 12 species. Species with wide niche breadth in geographic space experienced greater northwards expansions and higher habitat suitability scores than species with small niche breadth. Niche breadth in environmental space was not significantly related to change in habitat distribution. Overall, these results indicate that terrestrial orchid species with a wide distribution will be more capable of shifting their distributions under climate change than species with a limited distribution, but only if they are fully able to expand into habitats at the leading edge of their distributions.